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Victoria 3 - Dev Diary #12 - Treasury

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Hello and welcome to another development diary for Victoria 3! Today we’ll be covering a topic that tends to be very much in the mind of governments of all eras: Money! Specifically, we’re going to be talking about income, expenses and debt, and how they function on the national level.

As was mentioned all the way back in Dev Diary #2, Money is one of the principal resources you have to manage in Victoria 3. This in itself is of course nothing new (money of some form playing a role in almost every Grand Strategy game we’ve ever released), but the way money works is a little bit different than what you might be used to.

In most games, money tends to be a resource you accumulate for a specific goal, until you have enough of it to achieve that specific goal. For example, you might want to build a building that costs 100 money, and your monthly income is 10 money. That means in order to build said building, you have to wait for 10 months to accumulate the 100 money needed for the lump sum cost to order the construction of said building.

Now, you might be asking, why am I explaining such a simple and obvious mechanic that undoubtedly every single reader of this dev diary is completely familiar with? The reason for this is because in Victoria 3, there is no such thing as a lump sum cost - instead, it’s all about your weekly balance. At the end of every in-game week, your country’s income and expenses are tallied up and the result is then applied to your Gold Reserve or National Debt. This also means that all forms of expenses, such as construction, also work on a weekly basis - you do not need any cash ‘on hand’ to start construction of a dozen buildings at once, but if you don’t have the revenue to support it you may find yourself quickly going into debt.

America’s lack of an income tax in 1836 sharply limits its potential for government spending
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The Gold Reserve is your country’s national stockpile of cash. If you are free of debt, any money that is left over in the weekly budget after expenses are subtracted is used to increase the Gold Reserve. Conversely, if your expenses exceed your income, this money is taken out of the Gold Reserve to balance the books.

Though it’s certainly never bad in itself to have a sizable Gold Reserve, it isn’t necessarily the best idea to continually run a large budget surplus - each country has a Gold Reserve Limit, which is a ‘soft-cap’ over which each surplus pound has diminishing returns on the Gold Reserve - if you have an enormous stockpile of gold, a surplus of £10k may only increase your stockpile by as little as £2k, meaning that you’ve simply wasted the rest of your money. Hence, a country that finds its gold reserves filling up may want to consider finding a way to reinvest some of that money to avoid such wastage.

The Spanish Gold Reserve has grown to the point where further stockpiling is becoming very inefficient, and they should really try to find better uses for some of that money
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So what if you’re running a deficit and your Gold Reserve has all been tapped? Well, this is when debt comes into play. Beyond that point, each pound spent in excess of your income will result in automatically taking on debt. While this may sound like something that you should avoid at all costs, that isn’t necessarily true.

While you do have to pay interest on your loans, interest rates in Victoria 3 are relatively low, and so long as you avoid hitting your Debt Ceiling, growing your economy through deficit spending can actually be a very valid strategy. This is because the increase in revenues from minting and taxation may very well end up exceeding the interest payments, not to mention the benefits constructing new industries can have for your population.

The Debt Ceiling, unlike the Gold Reserve, is not a soft cap - once you hit it, your country will be in default, which is a terrible state to be in and can only be recovered from if you manage to slash your expenses enough to put your weekly expenses back in the black (or if another country steps in and takes on your debt, which can have its own undesirable outcomes for you… but more on that later). It’s also possible to simply declare bankruptcy, but because the money you are borrowing against is actually the cash reserves of your country’s buildings (which is actually what determines the size of your Debt Ceiling), this will have immensely negative consequences for your domestic industry.

Even though Britain has taken on several million pounds of debt, this isn’t too much of an issue - their advanced economy allows them a high debt ceiling, and the interest payments is only a small fraction of their spending
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To wrap up this Dev Diary, I’m going to briefly touch on the main forms of income and expenditures, though this is by no means an exhaustive list! Some forms of income and expenses (taxes and salaries, specifically) also have a ‘level’ setting, where you can for example squeeze more taxes out of your population at the cost of reduced legitimacy and increased radicalization.

A massive hike of the tax level to the highest level is a sure-fire way to both raise money and create political radicals
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Main Types of Income (not an exhaustive list):
  • Minting: All countries can generate some cash flow by printing or casting new currency in relation to their GDP. Minting provides all countries with some income - particularly those who have domestic Gold Fields - but is in itself insufficient for funding anything but the most minimalist of governments.
  • Income Taxes: A form of taxation collected on income, where a certain % of the wages paid to workers in buildings is paid to the government.
  • Poll Taxes: A form of per-capita taxation where a fixed sum of money is collected on each member of the workforce. Poll Taxes are very regressive since they collect the same amount regardless of income.
  • Land Taxes: A special type of Poll Taxes that are only collected on certain types of Pops, such as Peasants.
  • Consumption Taxes: A tax that is levied directly on a specific good that is consumed by Pops. Levying Consumption Taxes costs Authority.
  • Dividend Taxes: A tax that is applied to dividends paid to Pops with an ownership stake in a Building. Tends to be a very progressive form of taxation, as usually only well-to-do Pops have ownership of buildings.
  • Tariffs: Tariffs are something that we plan to have in the game as a way to profit from goods being exported from your market, but we’re not ready to talk about exactly how this will work yet.

Main Types of Expenses (not an exhaustive list):
  • Government Wages: The salary cost of employing Pops in your Government Buildings such as Government Administrations and Ports.
  • Government Goods: The material costs for your Government Buildings, for example the Paper needed by Government Administrations.
  • Military Wages: The salary costs of Pops serving in your army and navy.
  • Military Goods: The various goods needed by your army and navy, such as Small Arms for Barracks.
  • Subsidies: The cost of subsidizing specific buildings to ensure they remain competitive.
  • Interest: The cost of making interest payments on your loans, if you have any.
  • Construction: The cost of constructing new buildings, both in goods required for the method of construction and wages paid to Pops working in the construction industry.

Well then, that’s all for today. Next week we’re going to be talking about a topic that touches on both economics and politics - Standard of Living. See you then!
 
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So the state borrows money from buildings' reserves? Will the state pay interest to the buildings? Will the buildings not be able to use the money they lent?
Or is that all abstracted away?
 
A Promising DD! But I've found this a bit annoying:


It’s also possible to simply declare bankruptcy, but because the money you are borrowing against is actually the cash reserves of your country’s buildings (which is actually what determines the size of your Debt Ceiling), this will have immensely negative consequences for your domestic industry.

The Governmeny Sector borrowing from the Industry Sector doesn't sound like anything we will learn from ECON101. Especially in the period of rapid industry expansion, I presume the Family Sector (Aristocrats or so) are more likely to be the overall lender.

Maybe there's gameplay reasons? Or the Gov only borrow on the "guarantee" of enterprises?
I suspect it is because they have already abstracted out individual savings into standards of living, so the only store of capital resides in the buildings (or very indirectly in the standard of living). This seems like an excellent method to use to me since it should model government spending crowding out private industry fairly well, but also (assuming interest payments actually get paid to bondholders) allow for more varied investments (industry vs. government paper).

I'm curious how interest rates are set in this game? I hope it isn't like V2 where interest rates are flat and things like technology lower it. You have a ready made model here where you are already calculating total debt outstanding as a function of your credit limit/borrowing power, so interest rates should be primarily based on that and your national income to represent the risk of default. This would let modern, powerful economies borrow large amounts comfortably and continue to invest, and enable countries to deficit spend as long as it was under the rate of GDP growth.
 
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Money is not conserved in the V3 economy. If a good is over-produced in a market (low prices), then sellers get more money than buyers pay, leading to money creation. If a good is under-produced, then sellers get less money than buyers pay, leading to money destruction. Money lost due to tax inefficiency is probably destroyed, and money from dependent side-jobs seems to be created.

How exactly all these money sinks and sources balance out over time and affect the larger economy is something I am keen to learn.

I'm not sure I follow. That would only be the case if the revenue received for for a given good is fixed while its purchase price is not, which frankly makes no sense even in the most abstract economy.
 
I'm not sure I follow. That would only be the case if the revenue received for for a given good is fixed while its purchase price is not, which frankly makes no sense even in the most abstract economy.
No, it's how the goods market works in V3: Buyers always get their desired quantity of goods, as long as overall demand and supply are pretty similar. If sellers always sell their actual production, and the price is the same, then on a day-to-day basis, you'll regularly get money creation or destruction. Check out my post for more details about how this actually leads to medium-run net changes in the money supply: https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/threads/the-victoria-3-goods-market.1485321/#post-27722878
 
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Where does the money spent on interest on the national debt go? IIRC Vic2 had a big problem with interest payments causing money to disappear into thin air, depleting the finite global supply and sending the world economy into a death spiral. Am I missing something about how changes to the way money is generated would solve this issue?
 
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At the moment we don't have this for most countries, I'm split on the idea in that it would be a nice historical detail but at the same time having countries start the game in a dire financial state may not feel good gameplay wise.

Thinking about it, starting with debt burden could be very interesting:

- It is part of the historical context, like what pop you have, what flag you have, what provinces you control, etc...
- The player have to familiarize with a system that basically should be the standard when you run a nation
- This can made playthrougs very interesting, in deciding what nation playing. The player can think "In want to take this nation and put it out of his financial crisis"
- This can made all the Great Power more interesting to play and balance something, solving partially the problem of the "Start as UK to be the best all the time and conquer all the world by the end date" so you have an internal financial problem to deal with at start

You could add the following option for the player about starting debt:

- Historical debt
- No debt
- Debt only for the starting GP
- A starting Flat debt for everyone scalable
 
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So the state borrows money from buildings' reserves? Will the state pay interest to the buildings? Will the buildings not be able to use the money they lent?
Or is that all abstracted away?
In the current build of the game, interest payments is purely a negative and disappear into a black hole. We're going to prototype paying that interest out proportionately to Shareholders, so with any luck that's how it will work on release. My only hesitation is that mechanics which favor Pops at the (temporary) expense of the player, or vice versa, aren't clearly "good" or "bad" for the player which presents certain challenges in framing, explanation, and game dynamics. For example, a country that's deep in debt would pay a lot of interest to its captains of industry, who are quite pleased with that as the payments afford them greater luxuries (when actually they should perhaps be worried the debt will be defaulted on, and encourage government austerity and repayment). But if the country manages to climb out of debt, they're now punished by the factory owners who are mad their piles of gold are slightly smaller today.

But this kind of stuff is Vicky through and through, so we're going to do our best to make it work right.

As for the buildings being unable to use the money lent, the way it works is that if a building has to tap into its reserves, if this causes the total Cash Reserves in the nation to shrink below the current debt principal, the country goes into Default. So buildings can still use money lent by basically demanding to be repaid, but while the country is in this state it can declare Bankruptcy and bail on all lenders.
 
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But this kind of stuff is Vicky through and through, so we're going to do our best to make it work right.

I was going to say that it's not realistic to conjure money out of thin air but it's what the FED is doing atm so ignore me :cool: (but probably inflation will be needed sooner or later).
 
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In the current build of the game, interest payments is purely a negative and disappear into a black hole. We're going to prototype paying that interest out proportionately to Shareholders, so with any luck that's how it will work on release. My only hesitation is that mechanics which favor Pops at the (temporary) expense of the player, or vice versa, aren't clearly "good" or "bad" for the player which presents certain challenges in framing, explanation, and game dynamics. For example, a country that's deep in debt would pay a lot of interest to its captains of industry, who are quite pleased with that as the payments afford them greater luxuries (when actually they should perhaps be worried the debt will be defaulted on, and encourage government austerity and repayment). But if the country manages to climb out of debt, they're now punished by the factory owners who are mad their piles of gold are slightly smaller today.

But this kind of stuff is Vicky through and through, so we're going to do our best to make it work right.

As for the buildings being unable to use the money lent, the way it works is that if a building has to tap into its reserves, if this causes the total Cash Reserves in the nation to shrink below the current debt principal, the country goes into Default. So buildings can still use money lent by basically demanding to be repaid, but while the country is in this state it can declare Bankruptcy and bail on all lenders.
Isn't the simpler way to do this to pay the interest back to the building itself? The owners of the building will benefit from this as well since it should increase the stock of money and get closer to the point where they can increase the dividend. This also achieves all those wonderful knock-on effects you mentioned. Maybe represent that one bar in each industry as two colors - the portion held in cash and the portion held in government debt.

I'm very excited to play this game (and have been for about a decade now).
 
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One thing I think would be interesting is if the player has a nice big surplus, and they decide to launch a ton of improvements/investments, which consume both goods and workforce, and therefore create shortages of both, so the local market prices of those goods would shoot up, along with shortages of labor causing shortages of other goods and increases in wages, resulting in those other goods going up in price, and the workers having more money to spend, chasing a dwindling supply of goods. Which is what happens in real life when the government goes to war, etc.
 
Every week vic3 looks nicer and nicer.
I have two questions about this topic though...
1: minting more money would result in some kind of inflation as an adverse effect?
2: would it make sense to increase to the maximum the tax rates to achieve more radicalization? (I mean if it could be a valid strategy in case I deliberately want to create a socialist or some kind of tax heaven country for example) hehehe.
Again, another wonderful dev diary!
1. Minting doesn't have an adverse effect as you're not able to adjust the minting level yourself. It is scaled automatically to a fraction of GDP, to the degree that the money supply is increased in relation to what's needed to prevent deflation but not enough to cause inflation. If we ever decide to add monetary policy settings though, this is exactly where it would hook in :D

2. Oh yeah, absolutely. Punitive tax rates on specific segments of the population - which can also be precisely targeted by high taxes on specific consumer goods - to build radicalism to power up certain popular movements is a perfectly valid galaxy brain move.
 
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One thing I think would be interesting is if the player has a nice big surplus, and they decide to launch a ton of improvements/investments, which consume both goods and workforce, and therefore create shortages of both, so the local market prices of those goods would shoot up, along with shortages of labor causing shortages of other goods and increases in wages, resulting in those other goods going up in price, and the workers having more money to spend, chasing a dwindling supply of goods. Which is what happens in real life when the government goes to war, etc.
The mechanics certainly seem to support that. Government stimulus money here we come!
 
I’m a bit worried that a low-tech building, if I understand correctly, if slightly profitable, would have exactly the same cash reserve as a high-end super profitable one, so debt capacity will be linked to number of buildings and not actual GDP. Would you consider linking part of the debt capacity to high strata pops wealth, to represent investment in government bonds, and also to reward “tall” play?
 
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That is actually not a bad idea, no promises but I'll note it down as something we might do.
I definitely like this idea too. Was also thinking in terms of Britain having a lot of starting debt from the Napoleonic Wars, which should temper their ability to do massive deficit spending in the early game.
 
Will the AI know what a balanced budget is?
Given the details we've been given, I actually wonder if it knows what a good, imbalanced budget is. That is, from what's been presented your government can make gains in V3 (as in life) by going into debt and using that debt to fuel an expansion of the economy, essentially making sure that your revenue and credit limit outrun your debts. But will the AI have any idea of when it should do that, or will it be stuck pinching pennies because it's afraid of going slightly into debt?

For example, a country that's deep in debt would pay a lot of interest to its captains of industry, who are quite pleased with that as the payments afford them greater luxuries (when actually they should perhaps be worried the debt will be defaulted on, and encourage government austerity and repayment).
An idea that was floated upthread is to treat the amount of the credit limit/debt ceiling a country is using as a measure of the market's trust in them - if you have modest debts, such as England in the DD, people are more confident you'll repay them than if you're running very close to the red line. So modest deficit spending might have its supporters among your pops but if it spirals out of control, they'll be steadily more worried.
 
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I’m a bit worried that a low-tech building, if I understand correctly, if slightly profitable, would have exactly the same cash reserve as a high-end super profitable one, so debt capacity will be linked to number of buildings and not actual GDP. Would you consider linking part of the debt capacity to high strata pops wealth, to represent investment in government bonds, and also to reward “tall” play?
Based on industries we've seen so far this doesn't appear to be the case. Food Industries were shown to have 225k max reserves at level 2 while Railways have 100k max reserves at level 4. And of course barely profiable buildings will have times where they're unprofitable which should draw down thier actual reserves more than very profitable ones.
 
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I’m a bit worried that a low-tech building, if I understand correctly, if slightly profitable, would have exactly the same cash reserve as a high-end super profitable one, so debt capacity will be linked to number of buildings and not actual GDP. Would you consider linking part of the debt capacity to high strata pops wealth, to represent investment in government bonds, and also to reward “tall” play?
It's linked to level of building, and can also vary by type. So a Wheat Farm might have a lower Cash Reserve maximum per level than a Steel Mill. In practice "high-end super profitable" industries will be expanded while lower-tech ones will become irrelevant, so most of your debt ceiling will be provided by those industries. Similarly, rich high strata Pops will be the Shareholders in those buildings, so it's actually "their" wealth we're representing.
 
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