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Victoria 3 - Dev Diary #75 - Diplomatic Improvements in 1.2

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Hello and welcome to another Victoria 3 Dev Diary about Update 1.2! By now the Open Beta is of course in full swing, and everything in this post will either already be available to try out or be part of one of the upcoming updates to the Open Beta in the following weeks. However, we still want to take the time to properly outline the changes we’re making to the game in 1.2 for those who either don’t want to opt into the Open Beta or are just interested in more detail and context. Today’s Dev Diary will be focusing on changes on the Diplomatic side of the game, both in terms of new functionality and AI.

The first improvement we’re going to go over today is Colonial Claims, which is a change to Colonization that is intended to prevent some of the more ahistorical nonsense we have going on in colonization at the moment, such as countries rushing for Hokkaido before Japan can get it or the United States setting up shop in Tierra del Fuego. Quite simply, what it means is that some countries now start with claims on states owned by Decentralized Nations, and any country which *doesn’t* have a claim on that state is blocked from colonizing it so long as the claiming state maintains an Interest there.

As an example, the Hudson Bay Company starts with a claim on Alberta in 1.2, while the United States of America does not, which means that the USA cannot start just colonizing into Canada without first forcing the HBC to revoke their claim through the use of a ‘Revoke Claim’ war goal. Similarly, Chile and Argentina have overlapping claims on some parts of Patagonia and thus are able to race each other for it, but won’t have it sniped away from them by a Belgium with grandiose Latin American ambitions.

While we’re on the topic of colonization, I should also mention that something else we’ve changed to improve how it plays 1.2 is how the Native Uprising diplomatic play works. In 1.1.2, a colonizer that defeats a Native Uprising would annex the entire native Decentralized Nation, which led to some weird pacing and balance issues. This has been changed to instead give the colonizer a special ‘Colonial Rights’ diplomatic pact with the defeated natives, which lasts for the duration of the truce. During this period, colonization speed is doubled and no further uprisings can occur from that particular Decentralized Nation.

It is no longer possible to simply snipe Hokkaido away from the Japanese Shogunate, as they start with a claim on the Ainu-controlled parts of the island
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Next up is a change to Diplomatic Plays that allows countries to expand their Primary Demands in a play. An issue that has been repeatedly identified by players since release is that once they grow strong enough, the AI has a tendency to back down against them in plays, ceding one war goal at a time and setting in place a five-year truce before the next demand can be made. While this does fit with the design principle that there should be a reason to want to back down, the end result could end up unduly frustrating and wasn’t just an issue for the player, either, as the AI of the USA struggled to reach the West Coast when it could only take one state off Mexico at a time.

To address this in a way that directly tackles the problem while still ensuring that it still isn’t simply best to always take your chances with a war, we’ve changed the concept of Primary Demand (ie the first war goal added, which gets enforced when backing down) to Primary Demands, which will all be enforced when the enemy backs down, and Secondary Demands, which will only be relevant if the play escalates to war. Just as it works right now, the first war goal added on each side is always a Primary Demand, but there are now ways to add more Primary Demands beyond the first.

Firstly, any war goal targeting the main opponent (or any of their subjects) that is added by Swaying another country to your side will now automatically be a Primary Demand. In other words, if you’re launching a play against France and they’re being supported by Spain, any country you sway to your side with a war goal targeting France will have that war goal added as a Primary Demand, while war goals targeting Spain are Secondary Demands. The AI understands this and will place higher value on Primary Demands, since they are much more likely to actually receive what’s promised by the war goal in the end.

Secondly, any war goals you yourself add can be made into Primary Demands if they target the main opponent (or any of their subjects). However, doing so is considered less ‘justified’ than adding Primary war goals through swaying, and so will cost an amount of maneuvers and generate an amount of infamy proportional to the cost of adding the war goal in the first place. This means that while adding more Primary Demands for yourself ensures that you receive them if you end up making them back down, it isn’t free, and is done at the expense of adding additional war goals or swaying more countries to your side. The AI is also going to receive some tweaks here to make them less likely to back down if you keep piling on Primary Demands, as at a certain point the unreasonableness of the demands just becomes too much to take without making a fight of it.

The cost of expanding your Primary Demands is entirely relative to the cost of the wargoal, so in the case of taking the small and depopulated state of Utah, it’s quite low
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On the topic of AI, we move on to the final topic for today’s dev diary: Peace AI and War Exhaustion mechanics. Both of these have received a bunch of improvements in 1.2, though most of these improvements have not yet made it into the Open Beta. War Exhaustion, of course, is the rate at which a country’s War Support drops towards -100, at which point they are forced to capitulate. In the 1.1.2 version of the game, the main driver of War Exhaustion is occupation of territory, particularly wargoals and the capital, leading to the much-maligned ‘just naval invade Berlin’ meta.

In 1.2, you still get War Exhaustion from occupation, but the amount gained from occupied wargoals/capital is less, and War Exhaustion from occupation of other territory now scales non-linearly, with severity increasing rapidly as the country approaches full occupation: a fully enemy-controlled Modena will still capitulate quickly, while a Russia that has lost control of a few states in the Caucasus is barely going to be affected. Instead, the primary driver of War Exhaustion is now casualties and battles lost. War Exhaustion from Casualties now scale against the total available manpower for the country instead of its Population, so a country with an army of 10,000 is going to be much more affected by 5000 casualties than a country with an army of 100,000, even if the two countries have the same overall population. For available manpower, all regular battalions are counted (whether mobilized or not), but conscripts are only counted once they’re actually called in - so calling up more conscripts can be a way to directly affect your War Exhaustion rate.

Furthermore, War Exhaustion from Casualties now scales against the % of battles (proportional to battle size, so a battle of 100 battalions vs 100 battalions counts more than one of 5 vs 1) that your side of the war has lost. What this means is that a country which keeps winning battles can absorb far more losses than one which keeps losing them, and allows for battlefield victory to play much more directly into achieving overall victory in the war.

Even though the amount of casualties relative to army size are fairly similar owing to the massive Qing army, the British are losing war support at a much slower rate due to their string of battlefield victories
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The AI for making peace has also received some upgrades. In addition to now just being better at constructing equitable peace deals through a rewrite of the core logic behind AI-made peace deals, the AI has also been made to consider more angles when deciding whether or not a peace deal is acceptable. Firstly, a new factor has been added called ‘achievable wargoal’, where the AI looks at whether a war goal is likely to be gained by the side that holds it through the capitulation of the target if a peace deal is not signed. Such wargoals, if held by the AI, will make them far more reluctant to sign peace unless those wargoals are part of the peace, while they are simultaneously more likely to accept the enemy pressing wargoals against them that they’d just lose anyway if the war continued. Secondly, the AI now looks at more additional factors for peace (such as the relative military strength of the two sides) and other factors have been tweaked, for example the size of AI Gold Reserves now has less importance than it used to.

Even though the Qing are offering considerable concessions, the British AI will refuse this peace deal because they believe they can get everything they want anyway once Qing is forced to capitulate
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That’s it for today! This is of course not an exhaustive list of everything that’s been improved diplomacy-wise in 1.2, and there are a number of improvements still planned for future Open Beta updates, particularly on making the diplomatic AI behave in a more plausible way and be better at sticking by important allies, but details on that will have to wait for another day. Next week, we continue talking about the 1.2 Update as our tech lead Emil will tell you all about the improvements we’ve made to Performance. See you then!
 
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I love all these changes but one thing I am kinda missing is starting Diplo plays for puppets, especially reconquest or conquest of homeland and some way to transfer states to puppets.
 
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Fantastic stuff, but there still seems to be some problems regarding the US getting Alberta, at least in the previous beta patch.

Also Texas is losing regularly to Mexico. Can you look into it?
 
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So we have starting claims for the American and Asian territories. What about Africa? Are we going to get claims through the Scramble Journal Entry? That could help clean up the colonial borders.
 
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One thing I've noticed on the beta is that it's still possible to annex a decentralized nation quickly by adding a secondary demand (for a small infamy cost, but it's often very worth it). Given that the whole point is there's no central government, imo these countries should be invalid for any targeting by any demand other than colonization rights. Like, if I ask for war reps, who am I even getting it from? There's no central entity for me to make the demand of.
As mentioned above, this is a bug and should be fixed by the time 1.2 is released officially.
 
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I would like to make a suggestion for Primary and Secondary Demands from a player perspective.

Can we make it so that infamy from Primary Demands hits immediately, while infamy from Secondary Demands only hits when either the demanding party backs down or it actually comes to war?

The rationale here is that even with primary demands having a higher maneuver/infamy cost, I would always prefer adding them because I am guaranteed to get something in return for the infamy I incurred, no matter how the AI responds (provided I win of course, but that is then up to me). It is very frustrating to incur infamy "for nothing" because the AI backs down eventually, so I would always try to avoid that.

But with the proposed change this risk does not exist, and the tradeoff seems a lot more compelling to me. I think it makes intuitive and historical sense as well. With such a rule, we are basically using secondary war goals to represent brinksmanship, diplomatic threats and escalation. Essentially "give us what we want or we will take more" - and since its still a threat and not a demand, it is not seen as deserving of infamy (yet).

I think it would be both more fun to play and work well within the fantasy of brinksmanship and escalation the diplo play mechanic is supposed to emulate.
 
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I have nothing else to say but show my appreciation for the work done! Thank you very much.

(I'll keep playing the beta and making suggestions on the discord channel, this has been a great inniative IMHO).
 
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I would once again like to point out, in the very unlikely case that the development team isn't already aware, that it appears that the "next music" button in the new music player added into the Beta does not seem to listen to the "is_valid" triggers in the music files.
 
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Sounds cool! I hope that before colonizing a state in Africa or Indonesia, you first need to lay a claim on this state (put a flag). However, this should give the casus belli "transfer of the rights of colonization of State X" to other powers showing interest in the region.
 
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All very good changes! I'm still hoping for confirmation that the AI will be much more reasonable in what wars they get involved in though. Specifically nerfing the Qing World Police issue. Plus things like the UK intervening in a war between two central american nations, or a war between Peru and Boliva, or even a war between Afgan and Kazaks. Its really my biggest issue with the game.
 
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Almost certainly not feasible for 1.2, but have you guys considered additional changes to the play/peace system for "interloping" powers in plays/wars? For example:

I'm playing as France and support Mexico when they get targeted by the USA. But the only thing I can really get out of that support is... keeping Mexico around. You can't add wargoals despite the fact that you're going to be providing probably 90% of the fighting troops. If I want to make the US abolish slavery or release a country, I feel disincentivized to participate in other plays because (1) I'm going to be throwing a lot of troops and money at it with little return for me since I can't achieve those goals, and (2) I now have to wait 5 years to achieve the goals I want because I wanted to keep Mexico alive and ended up in a treaty.

Is there any way we could make it so that great powers interfering in wars can benefit more directly from them? Maybe give them a share of the maneuvers proportional to their army projection? It's not a great solution, but it might be better than always ending up choosing being an isolationist because I can't really benefit from my interference.

In theory, the the interloping great power should have been promised something for their participation. In practice, this often is either a lousy obligation or the AI does not offer anything at all.

I think the best solution would be the often-requested "reverse swaying" mechanic. A great power could specify for which wargoal it would join and a heavily outclassed power should accept most of the time, because why not?
 
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... Russia as a sort of historical colonialism law with little reason for other countries to switch to it.
Russia no longer starts with colonialism. The Kazakhs are no longer decentralized and are represented as 'protectorates'.

I would like to make a suggestion for Primary and Secondary Demands from a player perspective.

Can we make it so that infamy from Primary Demands hits immediately, while infamy from Secondary Demands only hits when either the demanding party backs down or it actually comes to war?

The rationale here is that even with primary demands having a higher maneuver/infamy cost, I would always prefer adding them because I am guaranteed to get something in return for the infamy I incurred, no matter how the AI responds (provided I win of course, but that is then up to me). It is very frustrating to incur infamy "for nothing" because the AI backs down eventually, so I would always try to avoid that.

But with the proposed change this risk does not exist, and the tradeoff seems a lot more compelling to me. I think it makes intuitive and historical sense as well. With such a rule, we are basically using secondary war goals to represent brinksmanship, diplomatic threats and escalation. Essentially "give us what we want or we will take more" - and since its still a threat and not a demand, it is not seen as deserving of infamy (yet).

I think it would be both more fun to play and work well within the fantasy of brinksmanship and escalation the diplo play mechanic is supposed to emulate.
You get refunded infamy for secondary demands if they back down (at least on live).
 
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This all sounds like excellent changes. Excited to try them out!
 
I don't think I've had a single peace deal where either side wasn't capitulated. I have to play around with the beta changes, but it mostly seems like the issue of not dropping below 0 war enthusiasm unless all wargoals are controlled and very steep war exhaustion otherwise is not changed. This gets worse as you can't separate peace and everyone has to agree, with each wargoal being quite expensive.

I feel like a system similar to eu4 war enthusiasm would be much better suited to stalled conflicts and such. (Starting at 0, going both ways, contributing to willingness to sign peace, with functional unconditional surrender)
 
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Looking good... I would like to hear more about diplomacy changes though, and really hope that you can simulate the AI caring about the balance of power. Take the end of WWI for instance and the mess that was the US and UK trying to block France from making Germany too weak...