What if Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939

[JodelDiplom]

As horrific as it was IRL this scenario could actually be worse for the Poles...

Well, Poland would be treated as a defeated power after the war is over ... The Soviets might just take their eastern provinces. But oh wait that's what actually happened despite them being officially on the victorious side!

They might get less compensation from the Germans after the war though. But even there I'm not sure results would have been too different from real history... The idea of weakening Germany by giving Poland parts of its eastern territories dates back to WW1 and I don't think the victorious allies and Soviets would leave Germany within its prewar borders. Certainly, all the 1919/1920 plebiscite areas would be given to Poland even if the Poles had ended up sticking with Germany until the end. The remainder of East Prussia would go to the Soviets as per OTL. The reasons for pushing the border with Germany further west would still mostly hold - a defensible Polish-German border would primarily serve Soviet interests. Maybe Germany would get to keep Stettin/Szczecin. Or it might look like line D or C on this map, giving Poland only upper Silesia, southern east Prussia, and eastern Pomerania.

No seriously I see few ways in which Poland would have ended up worse off by siding with Hitler. Materially they certainly would have been immensely better off without the enormous destruction inflicted by the Wehrmacht in 1939, 1943 and 1944, and the vicious extermination efforts of the SS inflicted on them from day 1 of the war onwards. The war would regardless end up inflicting some destruction but you can look at Finland, Romania or Hungary for examples where the destruction (physically and in terms of lives lost) during Soviet conquest / invasion wasn't anywhere on the scale of destruction inflicted on Poland by Germany.

Morally... well they wouldn't have the pride of having been on the good side in WW1. Maybe no polish pope in the 20th century. The polish posters would have to judge whether that would be better or worse for Poland

 

[pithorr]

Morally... well they wouldn't have the pride of having been on the good side in WW1. Maybe no polish pope in the 20th century. The polish posters would have to judge whether that would be better or worse for Poland

Morality... No, thank you. I would rather choose a Czech scenario

But apart of Polish outcome of that war, let'slok on ther implications, when Poland join or even subdue to Germany...
Two things come o my mind:
Wehrmacht, beginning the Western camapign would have not got experience from Poland. And they actually did many mistakes during the Polish campaign.
With Poland out of the game on Allies' side means they wouldn't have got Enigma aquired...

 

[ConjurerDragon]

Morality... No, thank you. I would rather choose a Czech scenario

But apart of Polish outcome of that war, let'slok on ther implications, when Poland join or even subdue to Germany...
Two things come o my mind:
Wehrmacht, beginning the Western camapign would have not got experience from Poland. And they actually did many mistakes during the Polish campaign.
With Poland out of the game on Allies' side means they wouldn't have got Enigma aquired...

The french passed on some information
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enigma_machine
about Enigma to the polish before, so the western allies were not completely clueless and the polish not working from scratch when the polish deciphered it and in 1938 the military version of the Enigma was made more complex so the polish could no longer compete.

But I am confident that Bletchley Park would have decyphered it anyway, just a bit later.

 

[pithorr]

The french passed on some information
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enigma_machine
about Enigma to the polish before, so the western allies were not completely clueless and the polish not working from scratch when the polish deciphered it and in 1938 the military version of the Enigma was made more complex so the polish could no longer compete.

But I am confident that Bletchley Park would have decyphered it anyway, just a bit later.

I think Bomba was actually the most important clue. Of course the Bletchley Park team and electrnic devices were eventually crucial for breaking more sophisticated coding machines, but without initial Polish contribution Turing & Co. would have got no starting point to work about.

 

[Yakman]

AFAIK, Stalin was worried that the western allies would set Germany and the USSR up against each other to bleed one another dry in war. He thought he had turned the tables on them with the M-R pact. But even without that pact, Stalin might have been reluctant to bear the brunt of the costs of a war.

Generally, smaller powers between larger ones do not seem to last long. Playing one against the other sounds nice in theory but the moment one of the big guys has other problems and is distracted or weakened, the other fella seizes the opportunity to come for you.

It bears repeating for the nth time in this forum that Stalin was not preparing to invade Europe, Germany, Poland, anywhere else. He was terrified that the West, allied with Germany, would invade the USSR. His strategy was to build a massive army which could repel invaders and then carry the war into central europe. it was not a weapon of invasion.

M-R allowed the USSR and Germany to divide Poland - Stalin thought it would give him defense in depth - it turned out that it was a poison pill, but we all make mistakes.

Poland, on the other hand, by rejecting everyone, ended up without friends when it needed them the most - when the wolf and the bear put aside their differences.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Poland, on the other hand, by rejecting everyone, ended up without friends when it needed them the most - when the wolf and the bear put aside their differences.

Hey, they did have Britain and France. Not the greatest of friends, admittedly. And it didn't do them a whole lot of good against Hitler and Stalin. Nor afterwards. But Britain did at least let them stay in 43 Eaton Place, London, until 1989. They didn't totally let them down.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

It bears repeating for the nth time in this forum that Stalin was not preparing to invade Europe, Germany, Poland, anywhere else. He was terrified that the West, allied with Germany, would invade the USSR. His strategy was to build a massive army which could repel invaders and then carry the war into central europe. it was not a weapon of invasion.

Carry the war into central europe... - then I assume that the soviet army that invaded Finland just innocently lost it’s way in the forest?

Even after the end of WW1 and long before the Molotov-Ribbentrop-Pact the soviets had been at war with almost any of their neighbours, e.g. in 1920 the soviet forces stood before Warsaw in the polish-soviet war. The soviet army was a weapon of invasion already right there

M-R allowed the USSR and Germany to divide Poland - Stalin thought it would give him defense in depth - it turned out that it was a poison pill, but we all make mistakes.

Not just Poland. The USSR did their fair share of invading and annexing along the whole lenght of their border, from Finland over the 3 baltic states, Poland, Bessarabia that was part of Romania:

Poland, on the other hand, by rejecting everyone, ended up without friends when it needed them the most - when the wolf and the bear put aside their differences.

Germany and the USSR never had been friends of a polish state since it had been reestablished after WW1 from territorry that before had been part of Germany and tzarist Russia.
Germany and Poland were at their own mini-war after 1918 when poles lead an insurrection in areas of the german empire that would normally have stayed in Germany after WW1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Poland_uprising_(1918–19)
and which lead to the border shifting more than intended before.
And the polish-soviet war from 1919 to 1921 even brought Poland to the brink of collapse before the tide turned.
The best Poland could hope was the german-polish non-aggression pact of 1934 that came to be after Poland got the hint that France would stay defensive using their new-built Maginot line and not immediately charge into Germany should war come, meaning that Poland would have to bear a fatal share of a possible german attack on the back then french-polish alliance. It was even a logical thing to do as Nazis and Communists were even more bitter enemies than Churchill and Communists. In Octobre 1938 Germany offered to prolong that pact for the price of Danzig+an extraterritorial "Autobahn" between german Eastern Prussia and the mainland of Germany.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

Hey, they did have Britain and France.

The question was if they had FRIENDS. They had none.

Not the greatest of friends, admittedly. And it didn't do them a whole lot of good against Hitler and Stalin. Nor afterwards. But Britain did at least let them stay in 43 Eaton Place, London, until 1989. They didn't totally let them down.

They did not simply let them down. It would have been letting them down if they would not have been allied to Poland and then denied to come to Polands help.
They *betrayed* Poland *twice*.
First when they reneged on their promise that once war between France/UK/Poland and Germany would start, to launch an attack on Germany from the west to relieve the polish forces in the east. Instead they abused Polands trust to buy them time to really prepare for war.
Second when they betrayed the polish after the war and let the USSR annex eastern Poland, turn Poland into a communist dictatorship and dismissed the polish army that for example had fought with polish pilots on british soil in the Battle for Britain against the german onslaught.

 

[bz249]

The question was if they had FRIENDS. They had none.



They did not simply let them down. It would have been letting them down if they would not have been allied to Poland and then denied to come to Polands help.
They *betrayed* Poland *twice*.
First when they reneged on their promise that once war between France/UK/Poland and Germany would start, to launch an attack on Germany from the west to relieve the polish forces in the east. Instead they abused Polands trust to buy them time to really prepare for war.
Second when they betrayed the polish after the war and let the USSR annex eastern Poland, turn Poland into a communist dictatorship and dismissed the polish army that for example had fought with polish pilots on british soil in the Battle for Britain against the german onslaught.

The Western Allies betrayed Poland as much as Poland betrayed France. The Polish promised to keep on fighting for 2 to 6 month. When the war came they failed to deliver.
The French could easily sat the thing in 1939 out, instead they declared war on Germany. And while their mobilization was far from world class... their attack plan was just plain stupid which guaranteed to be inconconclusive, they did attack with what was available only to cancel it when it was clear that Poland is gone.

 

[Yakman]

Hey, they did have Britain and France. Not the greatest of friends, admittedly. And it didn't do them a whole lot of good against Hitler and Stalin. Nor afterwards. But Britain did at least let them stay in 43 Eaton Place, London, until 1989. They didn't totally let them down.

you go Britain!

 

[pithorr]

The Western Allies betrayed Poland as much as Poland betrayed France. The Polish promised to keep on fighting for 2 to 6 month. When the war came they failed to deliver.
The French could easily sat the thing in 1939 out, instead they declared war on Germany. And while their mobilization was far from world class... their attack plan was just plain stupid which guaranteed to be inconconclusive, they did attack with what was available only to cancel it when it was clear that Poland is gone.

Don't forget that Poland also delayed mobilization under Allies pressure. Twice... What caused an enormous chaos and led to disastrous consequences during the incoming campaign.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Don't forget that Poland also delayed mobilization under Allies pressure. Twice... What caused an enormous chaos and led to disastrous consequences during the incoming campaign.

You could say that Britain and France didn't help Poland when her house was on fire, and didn't help her evict the neighbor later on who came to squat in Poland's burned down house. But Britain did let Poland sleep in her garden shed until 1989.

 

[Lordhen]

You could say that Britain and France didn't help Poland when her house was on fire, and didn't help her evict the neighbor later on who came to squat in Poland's burned down house. But Britain did let Poland sleep in her garden shed until 1989.

Different What if most likely, but what if there was a British Army of Poland and a French Army in Poland, would that help.

 

[pithorr]

Hey, they did have Britain and France. Not the greatest of friends, admittedly. And it didn't do them a whole lot of good against Hitler and Stalin. Nor afterwards. But Britain did at least let them stay in 43 Eaton Place, London, until 1989. They didn't totally let them down.

You could say that Britain and France didn't help Poland when her house was on fire, and didn't help her evict the neighbor later on who came to squat in Poland's burned down house. But Britain did let Poland sleep in her garden shed until 1989.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

The Western Allies betrayed Poland as much as Poland betrayed France.
The Polish promised to keep on fighting for 2 to 6 month. When the war came they failed to deliver.
The French could easily sat the thing in 1939 out, instead they declared war on Germany. And while their mobilization was far from world class... their attack plan was just plain stupid which guaranteed to be inconconclusive, they did attack with what was available only to cancel it when it was clear that Poland is gone.

Gamelin promised a "bold relief attack" within 3 weeks after the start of the war. Poland might have fought on longer if that would have actually happened.
When the french forces ended the (very) limited Saar offensive the french were still lying to the polish about what they were doing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal#Beginning_of_WWII,_1939
and even british politicians after the war admitted to the cruelty of misleading Poland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Polish_military_alliance#Criticism

 

[bz249]

Gamelin promised a "bold relief attack" within 3 weeks after the start of the war. Poland might have fought on longer if that would have actually happened.
When the french forces ended the (very) limited Saar offensive the french were still lying to the polish about what they were doing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal#Beginning_of_WWII,_1939
and even british politicians after the war admitted to the cruelty of misleading Poland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Polish_military_alliance#Criticism

So this is the map at 14.09.1939
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland#/media/File:Poland2.jpg

The Polish defense is reduced to a few strongholds (even the 05.09 indicates that it went beyond redemption), at that point no French* attack would do anything to save Poland. I am not saying that the French did their mobilizations and deployement admirably (it was as clumsy as it could have been) or that their offensive was bold (the geography ensured that the Saar offensive would be limited even if breakthrough occur by some near miracoulous combination of events... if they wanted to do something honestly they chose the "Southern Route" Karlsruhe-Mannheim-Stuttgart); but at least they were somewhat on track their promises
- declaration of war on Germany
- limited offensive within two weeks

and at that point, they should have known that Germany run out of supplies so after a hard fought initial phase they might win... they did not know it

*now the British are another matter, they were ready to spill Polish and French blood to stop the Germans

 

[Acheron]

With all due respect to the much-suffering Poles, the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact and their partaking in the their partaking in the partion of the CSSR make them not the spotless victim they see themselves as. The first weakened France's position in preventing Germany from rearming and the second was an all too cynical territory grab on-par what to what had been done three times to Poland before.

 

[pithorr]

With all due respect to the much-suffering Poles, the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact ...

Yeah, it is really surprising that Poland tried to secure peace with one of their powerful neighbour

...and their partaking in the their partaking in the partion of the CSSR make them not the spotless victim they see themselves as. The first weakened France's position in preventing Germany from rearming and the second was an all too cynical territory grab on-par what to what had been done three times to Poland before.

Sometimes it would be good to read what you quoted...
Apart, of the origins of the "land grab" in 1919, let's read about the "partition":

Within the region originally demanded from Czechoslovakia by Nazi Germany in 1938 was the important railway junction city of Bohumín(Polish: Bogumin). The Poles regarded the city as of crucial importance to the area and to Polish interests. On 28 September, Edvard Beneš composed a note to the Polish administration offering to reopen the debate surrounding the territorial demarcation in Těšínsko in the interest of mutual relations, but he delayed in sending it in hopes of good news from London and Paris, which came only in a limited form. Beneš then turned to the Soviet leadership in Moscow, (...)
Nevertheless, the Polish leader, Colonel Józef Beck, believed that Warsaw should act rapidly to forestall the German occupation of the city. At noon on 30 September, Poland gave an ultimatum to the Czechoslovak government. It demanded the immediate evacuation of Czechoslovak troops and police and gave Prague time until noon the following day. At 11:45 a.m. on 1 October the Czechoslovak foreign ministry called the Polish ambassador in Prague and told him that Poland could have what it wanted. The Polish Army, commanded by General Władysław Bortnowski, annexed an area of 801.5 km² with a population of 227,399 people. Administratively the annexed area was divided between two counties: Frysztat and Cieszyn County.[46] At the same time Slovakia lost to Hungary 10,390 km² with 854,277 inhabitants.
The Germans were delighted with this outcome, and were happy to give up the sacrifice of a small provincial rail centre to Poland in exchange for the ensuing propaganda benefits. It spread the blame of the partition of the Republic of Czechoslovakia, made Poland a participant in the process and confused political expectations. Poland was accused of being an accomplice of Nazi Germany – a charge that Warsaw was hard-put to deny.

 

[JodelDiplom]

With all due respect to the much-suffering Poles, the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact and their partaking in the their partaking in the partion of the CSSR make them not the spotless victim they see themselves as. The first weakened France's position in preventing Germany from rearming and the second was an all too cynical territory grab on-par what to what had been done three times to Poland before.

What is a "spotless victim" even? I do not recognize that word anywhere in my political dictionary. Nor in my dictionary of history.

France was by the 1930s a sclerotic power, waning and weakening, unable to defend the political order that it had created together with the other victors of WW1 in Europe just a few years earlier. Poland itself was, like Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, a product of that political order so her leaders had a very difficult job in trying to secure her continued existence in a world where France and Britain could no longer (and no longer even wanted to) defend that order against Germany and the other powers that sought to overthrow it.

None of the three made it, they all got wiped off the map by Germany and Italy. Poland certainly had the strongest position of the three since it wasn't a multinational construct and a large majority of its citizens were fully committed the nation. Who knows how Poland might have fared as an ally of Germany, rather than as a first and lonely victim to Germany's full-on brutal military power.

Yeah, it is really surprising that Poland tried to secure peace with one of their powerful neighbour

Nations do what nations must. I don't blame the Poles for trying to make some small gains from Czechoslovakia's dismemberment. No amount of polish support for Czechoslovakia in 1938 could have saved that country from the Nazis.

 

[Acheron]

Yeah, it is really surprising that Poland tried to secure peace with one of their powerful neighbour

The catch is, Poland expected France to come to their aid if big neighbor Germany decided to give war a change. Of course, the French expected Poland to come to their aid if Germany went west again. With the Polish-German non-aggression treaty, Poland seemed to want it both ways, assistance in case Germany attacks Poland, peace in case German attacks anyone else. This is not the basis of an alliance.

Sometimes it would be good to read what you quoted...

I did read it. Did you even read all that you posted? You highlighted the part "on 1 October the Czechoslovak foreign ministry called the Polish ambassador in Prague and told him that Poland could have what it wanted". Immediately before, it outright says that this was the result of a Polish ULTIMATUM. An ultimatum I may remind you on the heels of the German. So let me highlight this: "Amid the general euphoria in Poland – the acquisition of Teschen was a very popular development – no one paid attention to the bitter comment of the Czechoslovak general who handed the region over to the incoming Poles. He predicted that it would not be long before the Poles would themselves be handing Teschen over to the Germans."
Poland saw her neighbor weakened and went to grab what she could get, completely blocking out the bigger picture in which she was the next course. They descended upon a wounded CSSR like a vulture, remember, this annexation, happened after Germany took the Sudetenland but before the dismemberment of the CSSR proper. A wise leadership would have forgotten about a small city and instead focused on the survival of their nation, by offering a pact to the freshly humiliated CSSR and anyone else who could the the writing on the wall instead of seizing something that would not held of the expansionist neighbor for an hour.

Polish diplomacy if the thirties was a failure, it dispirited their allies and emboldened their enemies. It seized small gains for pride by jeopardizing gains for the nation's survival.