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OK, so I took a nuclear approach and got it working, but it did require - after trying several similar suggestions that didn't bear fruit - to just delete the whole Cities Skylines II folder at the end of that filepath.

I'm guessing that it must be related to a mod of some sort, as trying to re-add my save game in afterwards just took me back to the ocean start screen. Even then deleting the saves again doesn't fix it - it's like they do something fundamental to the folder that cripples it - I had to delete the whole folder again.

Update: Nope, after trying to reinstall all of my Region Pack DLCs, it errored out saying that it couldn't find some 'Prefab' thing or something, and gave me the option to quit the game. Now we're back at the ocean.

I really feel that this is something fundamental in the underlying game code now.
Please be aware that the game automatically re-downloads all mods from your playset, so if it was related to a mod, that mod is probably installed again, unless you changed playsets.