Wow. This is very, very interesting. I've never heard of this happening before.
I am not suprised. Decent studies about the war in 1939 (in Polish) appeared only relatively recently. I guess in 5-10 years there will be something in English about this subject.
You have the link to the Snyder's work about Ukraine from Alojzy which is great - it might be used as a guideline.
At least Poles were prepared to create a brigade or a division of ex-Soviet so essentially 'White Russian' soldiers which would eventually happen in the course of war. Officers would be a problem - there were numerous georgians and Ukrainians, some Azeris, Armenians, even Chechens and Tartars, but very few Russians with military experience.
There was of course a small 'white russian' community in Poland, but Tzarist Russian militarymen were not too keen on fighting under Polish command.
Well, the USSR did perform some major field operations in 1940 and 1941, which exposed some serious flaws in the Red Army. How far they'd go without a major war though... Hrm.
I wonder what they'd learn from the bangup in Manchuria they fought ATL, as the Japanese Empire collapsed?
I guess it would depend on Japanese tactics and weaponry. China is not a very good territory to wage mobile, motorised warfare and Japan didn't have resources to create more than 6-10 mobile divisions, unless they've changed their priorities.
The problem is that terrain would make tanks slightly less useful, much like in Spain so cooperation between heavy and light tanks, armoured cars and infantry on trucks would be difficult to test.
In addition Japan wasn't famous for their AT cannons - sure some were decent, but artillery was less numerous in general, even if sometimes perfectly trained (American troops terrorised by one-two perfectly commanded batteries in Pacific islands come to mind).
(Italics mine).
Is that that different from German practice at the time, though? And I can't help but contrast to the French habit of mixing infantry with tanks.
The problem is that Soviets combined ultra-fast (in theory) BTs with old T-26 (essentially modified Vickers E), amphibious tanks with armoured cars and all that with medium tanks such as T-34 and slow, heavy KV-1 and KV-2.
Everything together in one large mass.
Surely older types would be gradually replaced, so T-26, T-28, T-35, BTs etc would be removed, but the entire unit still would remain difficult to command and coordinate.
Poor communications would remain a problem while technical problems a nightmare, unless the Chinese campaign would teach them something - involvement in Spain or the logistical disaster in Poland didn't.
Historically only in 1942 heavy tanks were formed in independent units to support more important activities, which should happen from the beginning.
One word to add in the end - Soviets planned to have
61 armored and up to (different data)
37 mechanized divisions which would require
277 000 cars and c.
30 000 armoured vehicles...
IN 1941 there were c. 2500 (from c. 25 000 armoured vehicles including c.4000+ meachine gun armed tanks) relatively modern tanks, but early T-34 were seen as inadequate so would be replaced.
I was going to use a different example, but though it was too... weird.
Anyway here it goes. In 1939 the night before the invasion of Poland a number of sabotage-commando groups were paradropped, especially in Belorus.
They were supposed to gather and lead communist cells organised by illegal Western Belorussian Communist party so I think they were supposed to be generally well trained and well motivated people.
But after reading that at least in one case some of the would-be-liberators HID in the transport plane and returned home... I am not so sure.
I wonder how really those missions were treated, perhaps as one-way trip...
But were Estonian and Polish troops adequately equipped, in comparison to the Soviets?
Estonians were not. They had four infantry divisions (three peacetime, understrenght and one quickly mobilised) - c. 16 000 men each so avarage.
Each was decently trained on smaller level, quite like in Latvia, but according to British sources they were better trained and organised.
I am not sure how reliable those claims are - I feel they favoured the Estonians because their support played an important part in 1920 war against the Soviets and Estonian army might be treated as offspring of the British army.
Anyway they had plenty of artillery, mainly I WW, with 37 mm German AT cannons (around 20 in a division in 1939) and small calibre AA artillery in each unit.
Estonia had decent territorial defences, so there were plenty of well trained reservists, there was a cavalry regiment (expanded to a brigade for a war) and some older tanks, armoured trains and river warships with Polish TKS as the most modern armored equipment.
Err... almost forgot that it is occupied in your AAR so it is pointless...
About POL. Historically in 1939 the first part of the industrialization plan (the COP) was almost done and I think in your reality it would be concluded safely in 1940 as expected. State worked on infrastructure, supported some companies, guaranteed credits while private capital expanded industry e.g. locomotive and machine comapny Hipolit Cegielski Poznan is a good example - in 1938 they open a new factory in Rzeszów to produce licensed AA and AT cannons as well as industrial tools. In 1939 the new factory generates 2/3 of the entire income of the entire company.
If nothing dramatic happened I guess there would be plenty of equipment for example radiostations produced by state owned PZTiR were ordered, but only 1/10 was delivered to September 1939. During the war Germans produced those radios, mainly in Austria so they were pretty decent.
AA and AT cannons wouldn't be a problem with new factories and more capital after major investments were completed.
Historically untill 1939 production capacity was sufficient, but funds were not so SePeWe (a state-owned trust funded to coordinate weapon export) sold large quantities to Britain, the Netherlands, Romania and Republican Spain (the last received only 27 AT cannons - Poland might be the second largest exporter* of weaponry for the Republic, but more modern weapons were sold only from 1939). With more money available rearmament of the Polish Army should be more advanced, perhaps even completed (I have detailed plans and some progress reports - can quote if necessary).
Even in 1939 infantry was decently armed, a couple of infantry divisions even started receiving divisionary, motorised AT companies.
Compared to the Soviets the main difference would be in artillery, or rather its numbers which Russians always liked very much - even in the XVIth century. Poles assumed that their artillery would be better trained and commanded which might be enough or not.
Also Soviet divisions would be supported by tanks which in case of Poland would only appear in some - either recon tanks 4TP or rearmed with long barelled 20 mm cannon tankettes acting as light tank destroyers.
Finally there is the terrain and the fortifications which were built or in construction. Pretty decent bunkers supposedly more resilent (at least experts say so - I've visited many forums to find data in recent months) than Czechoslovak because of some better blend of concrete used to construct them. Some Russian sources call them Pilsudski's Line, but that is an exaggeration. Yet were good enough to protect central area of the eastern border. Small number were planned in Wilno too.
But it was mainly in the 'Prypet Marsh Sea' - with factors such as the Pinsk River Flotilla playing its part especially in autumn and spring - so not in the most important combat zone.
Also in 1940 there would be three and in 1942 four mechanized brigades organized to contain rapid attacks of tank formations (Maczek's 10th, Rowecki's Warsaw Brigade + one around Lódz and one in Kutno - I called them Lódzka and Plocka for my pack) in most probable areas of tank incursions three of each were identified in the east.
When it comes to the entire rest of the equipment - sub-machine guns, machine guns, mortars, rifles situation would be comparable unless the Poles would manage to rearm infantry with the semi-automatic rifles which were produced from late 1939, but I doubt it was possible. Not for 1,3-5 million soldiers and 3 million reservists, volunteers, paramilitary or even women volunteers and of course the Georgians, the Ukrainians etc.
Sorry for answering this way, but it is hard to make a decent comparison without mentioning other factors.
Why did the French stop the transaction?
They needed some for their army first.
In the end Poles bought some R-35 despite the fact that they didn't suit polish doctrine of mobile warfare, were slow and caused problems in eastern territories whith this
road network. Yes - only ONE solid road in the north-east...
Anyway the French gave the loan with only limited options to spent it. Somua wasn't available in 1937 nor in 1939 for funds from the French credit or for cash.
It was the same with the Brits, and it was too late with the Czechs. 14TP and more advanced designs (even semi-legendary '34TP' as one of less known designs is nicknamed because of its turrent and armament similar to T-34) would be available only in 1940-41.
I apologise for such a long answer, but I've almost completed my research about pre-war POL industry and military which proved to be much more complicated subject than I've expected.
If you need anything - data about POL jet engines rocketry, radars, chemical weapons, fortifications, paratroopers, tanks, weapons export, main companies, industrialisation, colonialism or plans for 1942+ etc I have it all decently covered. But each is a large subject of its own.
There were even attempts to construct the death ray emiter...
I will end with a poster for the 15 Year development plan:
and those:
Sadly I cannot find how to hide the images under spoilers...
* Officially Poland was neutral in this conflict and was unwilling to antagonise non-interventionist France so weaponry was officially sent to China, Peru, Paraguay, Estonia or the favourite - to Uruguay while in the reality it was transported by Latin American or Estonian ships to Spain. In the end everyone was happy - Poland, the Republic, friendly Estonia and bribed officials from Latin America. The Nationalists got some weapons, but paid less (probably from loans from Germany) so it ws the Repblic which received massive amounts of weaponry e.g. 114 000 rifles, 200 000+ hand ganades, 300+ cannons, 80 tanks etc.
SePeWe earned so much it was possible to rearm several divisions. Another unknown chapter of history.