Werewolf Lite CCXXII: Watch Your Step

[Yakman]

Falc seems a decent target, but I would like to propose Yakman too. Knowing Yakman's identity could actually be more valuable than knowing Kinge's affiliation.

vote Yakman

ridiculous.

Kingepyon is clearly a villager. I also am a villager.

advocating a run on me because I'm proposing that your fellow wolf be lynched is transparently wolfish.

 

[Yakman]

*ceases attempt to hide pitchfork*

You rang?


I wish I'd be online for it all... it's very hard to get the feel of the momentum unless you were checking in now and then. Reading it afterwards doesn't quite convey the same thing. The sad part is this deadline's ideal for me, I've just been sleeping at odd hours.

The obvious conclusion here is to pursue Falc and Reis91. A wolf was run up, Kingepyon was the other contender with four votes: Rendap the wolf (dead), Boris the villager (dead), Falc, and Reis91. The simplest explanation is that there are wolves in that group, trying to save Rendap. But that's the obvious conclusion, which I've lately taken to saying is the favorite conclusion for wolves.

Having stated the obvious conclusion, let's look harder. Firstly, there should be three extant wolves, not two, so it raises the question of why if the wolves tried to save Rendap did they not go all in? Perhaps one was offline, that's been known to happen; that would make the last wolf almost certainly one of those who weren't in on the two frontrunners: me, Yakman, the_hdk, Seen, and Teep the no voter. Let's file that away for now. Even assuming that the wolves tried to save Rendap but one didn't show up, why hunt Boris? If he was alive there's a good chance we'd be leading him to the gallows by now. Hunting him sticks a kick me sign on Reis and Falc. It's a stretch to say that this clears Reis and Falc, since it takes amazingly devious wolves to predict how the village will interpret something. The village might just as likely conclude "LET'S GET 'EM!" as "This doesn't add up." Possibly it's an attempt at framing them both, or otherwise it's a false-frame to help clear them. Frankly I don't go in for convoluted plots, I just tend to think the most obvious conclusion is often the wrong one.

Supporting the thought that Reis and Falc at least aren't both wolves is that the wolves seemed canny enough on Day 1. I still believe they scattered their votes about to disguise them. Canny wolves wouldn't burn two other wolves to save one. They'd let it shake out, and if they could save Rendap they would. Consequently I think at least for today we should let Reis and Falc slide and look elsewhere. I think the wolves decided to cut off the limb to save the body, as it were. So we need to look not among those who hesitated or moved late.

As for the idea both candidates are wolves... well it's possible. Rendap moved onto King when he had 1 vote. Possibly the an abili sort of run up being contemplated, then they got blindsided by the Snoopdogg initiated sudden jump onto Rendap. It's not impossible that an alibi gambit went wrong. However, I think it's unlikely. I'd take it as Esemesas being clear. Following Falc's logic, I'm looking among those who avoided the situation, and find...

Vote Yakman

oho! love the logic!

you say that there's clearly two frontrunning candidates, yet advocate that the village go for someone else.

good job there. fantastic thinking.

 

[Seen]

Yet a wolf voted for poor Vainglory twice so they want him dead. He must be JL!

VOTE THE_HDK

 

[reis91]

*ceases attempt to hide pitchfork*

You rang?


I wish I'd be online for it all... it's very hard to get the feel of the momentum unless you were checking in now and then. Reading it afterwards doesn't quite convey the same thing. The sad part is this deadline's ideal for me, I've just been sleeping at odd hours.

The obvious conclusion here is to pursue Falc and Reis91. A wolf was run up, Kingepyon was the other contender with four votes: Rendap the wolf (dead), Boris the villager (dead), Falc, and Reis91. The simplest explanation is that there are wolves in that group, trying to save Rendap. But that's the obvious conclusion, which I've lately taken to saying is the favorite conclusion for wolves.

Having stated the obvious conclusion, let's look harder. Firstly, there should be three extant wolves, not two, so it raises the question of why if the wolves tried to save Rendap did they not go all in? Perhaps one was offline, that's been known to happen; that would make the last wolf almost certainly one of those who weren't in on the two frontrunners: me, Yakman, the_hdk, Seen, and Teep the no voter. Let's file that away for now. Even assuming that the wolves tried to save Rendap but one didn't show up, why hunt Boris? If he was alive there's a good chance we'd be leading him to the gallows by now. Hunting him sticks a kick me sign on Reis and Falc. It's a stretch to say that this clears Reis and Falc, since it takes amazingly devious wolves to predict how the village will interpret something. The village might just as likely conclude "LET'S GET 'EM!" as "This doesn't add up." Possibly it's an attempt at framing them both, or otherwise it's a false-frame to help clear them. Frankly I don't go in for convoluted plots, I just tend to think the most obvious conclusion is often the wrong one.

Supporting the thought that Reis and Falc at least aren't both wolves is that the wolves seemed canny enough on Day 1. I still believe they scattered their votes about to disguise them. Canny wolves wouldn't burn two other wolves to save one. They'd let it shake out, and if they could save Rendap they would. Consequently I think at least for today we should let Reis and Falc slide and look elsewhere. I think the wolves decided to cut off the limb to save the body, as it were. So we need to look not among those who hesitated or moved late.

As for the idea both candidates are wolves... well it's possible. Rendap moved onto King when he had 1 vote. Possibly the an abili sort of run up being contemplated, then they got blindsided by the Snoopdogg initiated sudden jump onto Rendap. It's not impossible that an alibi gambit went wrong. However, I think it's unlikely. I'd take it as Esemesas being clear. Following Falc's logic, I'm looking among those who avoided the situation, and find...

Vote Yakman

What have you done with Vainglory, fiend?

 

[the_hdk]

seen seen seen. classic 3rd voter

 

[reis91]

oho! love the logic!

you say that there's clearly two frontrunning candidates, yet advocate that the village go for someone else.

good job there. fantastic thinking.

Better than thinking that there are two candidates, lynch one, them claim that proves the other is guilty. And I think you are a wolf to propose such course of action to the village.

 

[snoopdogg]

Hdk Falc, Yak race it seems right now. That looks ok.
Vote Falc. for now.

 

[randakar]

JL tell! Or wolf tell...

More a "me fishing for information tell" to be honest

I'd say more but I have a crying baby to contend with. Be back in a bit.

 

[esemesas]

oho! love the logic!

you say that there's clearly two frontrunning candidates, yet advocate that the village go for someone else.

good job there. fantastic thinking.

I like this guy. He's like Vainglory, but he doesn't make my head explode with walls of text and fancy words.

But I still have no idea who to vote. Voting on Yakman right now would be a bit bandwagony, besides, the reasoning on him(and everyone else) is pretty weak.

May I suggest lynching Teep? He failed to vote, maybe he was the wolf that didn't "chip in"?

Vote Teep

 

[Falc]

Hdk Falc, Yak race it seems right now. That looks ok.
Vote Falc. for now.

Except that Yakman and HDK had 3 while I had 1 before you came along.

Are you trying to turn the 2-man race into a 3-man race to save your packmates, perhaps?

 

[randakar]

I don't think Falc is a wolf. His vote was too damn obvious, pushing King up against rendap. If it was wolf play it was very poor, to say the least. So poor that it might actually have been very cunning wolf play

May I suggest lynching Teep? He failed to vote, maybe he was the wolf that didn't "chip in"?

Vote Teep

Well, either he will get subbed soon, or he will get autokilled. In the latter case wasting a lynch on him is bad play, in the former, we can go after whoever subs in for him then.
Thing is, we have nothing on him, so if we lynch him now we'll have learned very little. Even if he's a wolf.

 

[Yakman]

Better than thinking that there are two candidates, lynch one, them claim that proves the other is guilty. And I think you are a wolf to propose such course of action to the village.

except i didn't propose that.

i only argue that falc is a wolf. you might be. but i'm pretty sure about falc.

 

[Yakman]

Better than thinking that there are two candidates, lynch one, them claim that proves the other is guilty. And I think you are a wolf to propose such course of action to the village.

actually, let's rephrase my response.

i believe falc is a wolf. i think you are protecting him. if falc is lynched, and is a wolf, then i'd argue that you also be lynched.

if falc is innocent, then maybe you are also.

i am not advocating that falc's innocence makes you guilty. rather the opposite.

 

[randakar]

Let's hear this case against Falc, then, shall we?
Aside from that vote on King yesterday, what do you have on this falc-reis relationship?

 

[Yakman]

Let's hear this case against Falc, then, shall we?
Aside from that vote on King yesterday, what do you have on this falc-reis relationship?

that's a pretty big vote. also, i'm mostly relying on your analysis.

 

[Yakman]

also, you see both falc and reis switch votes onto najs after the votes went onto Vainglory on day 1. one could argue that the pack remaining consists of those three.

now, that's hardly likely, as there's little to go on. but falc claiming that "he had hoped for a wolfish move" after his own... reis91's defense of falc... Vainglory's attempt to get a bandwagon going on myself (KNOWN VILLAGER)... I dunno. I do know that I'm not a wolf. I am pretty sure that randakar and kingepyon are not wolves.

this is just what I see.

 

[reis91]

except i didn't propose that.

i only argue that falc is a wolf. you might be. but i'm pretty sure about falc.

Excuse my misunderstanding then. And yes, I am interested on hearing your case. Is there anything more to it than we both have voted for Kingepyon?

Also, another thing, that some people seem to be forgetting, is that I cast the first vote on Kingepyon. At that time, if I wanted to ensure Rendap's safety at all costs (which is a dubious proposition, considering the Dentistry school big game, where I had no qualms in outing him as a wolf), I had other more suitable targets.

Edit : Just checked, Rendap had no votes when I voted Kingepyon, so that argument falls on the ground.

 

[Yakman]

additionally, let's look at falc's vote yesterday. he was a throwaway onto reis91.

then things got serious, and he moved to try to block the vote onto the wolf. i mean, yeah, stupid villagers do that all the time. but wolves do it too. heck, that's what they are supposed to do. falc in particular makes a comment, "I WAS HOPING FOR A WOLFISH MOVE AFTER MINE." Who does that? Guilty people do that.

falc is a wolf.

 

[reis91]

Guilty people do that, most certainly, but vilalgers also do that. And Falc has a track record of doing things like that. Now, he could be exploiting it, or maybe not. He could be punished for it. But the goal of the village is to find wolves. Falc's death would not yield too much information. Your death, on the other hand...

 

[Yakman]

Guilty people do that, most certainly, but vilalgers also do that. And Falc has a track record of doing things like that. Now, he could be exploiting it, or maybe not. He could be punished for it. But the goal of the village is to find wolves. Falc's death would not yield too much information. Your death, on the other hand...

really?

so, my throwaway votes are more important than knowing his vote SHIFTS? are you kidding me?

holy jeeze louise. do you think anyone can deduct anything out of my votes? no. it's impossible. i voted for seen because the_hdk had done so right before me, and I AM THE ONLY ONE WHO VOTED VAINGLORY. It's throwaway. There's nothing out of it. On the other hand, we have falc, who switches from throwaway to second-placer AFTER a wolf gets jumped. and he does this at the last minute.

and guess what - YOU ARE DEFENDING HIM. left and right. up and down. if he's a wolf, then you are too. if he's not, then you probably aren't. there's a lot more to be learned from falc than from me. one of the things we learn is whether or not you should be the next guy run up the gibbet. at this point, i'm thinking that yes, you should be run up tomorrow.