Werewolf Lite CCXXXVIII: And now for something completely different - TAKE 2.

[Rendap]

Day 2 / Night 2:
Today we have a missing person case. The Villager known as the_hdk is missing from his duties as a milkman.
Below is a footage from his last known whereabouts.

[video=youtube;IJZM3X4dpzo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJZM3X4dpzo[/video]​

Further investigations show being a milkman is probably some of the most Sane occupation in the town......

At night, the Sane struck back - Or rather got someone to strike back. Or it might have been a fight between criminal gangs. More specifically between the Piranha Brothers and The Vercotti Cousins.
As it looks, Police have a feeling that Mr. Luigi Malurous Vercotti was trottled by Spiny Norman, a known associate of Dinsdale Piranha. Below a mug shot of the accused culprit:

the_hdk the Sane Pythonville Villager Milkman missing, presumed seduced.
Mr. Luigi Malurous Vercotti was trotled by Spiny Norman

 

[Malurous]

Well, can't be helped. At least I can console myself that I went 2-for-2 on the votes.

Go Team Insane!

 

[Rendap]

Here's a sub spot - Used to belong to HC - Now it's up for grasps! First Come First Serve.

Comes with a selection of the Finest Spam!

 

[trespoe]

I don't know who they are, but they sound like splitters. I hate Splitters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE

SPLITTER!

Vote THE_SPLIT

 

[THE_SPLIT]

SPLITTER!

Vote THE_SPLIT

O, rly?

 

[THE_SPLIT]

Vote Nautilu lets find out what yesterday was all about, and clear some people!

 

[humancalculator]

Sorry about that, overslept and had to leave home before I could go onto the internet.

 

[esemesas]

I died for this?!

 

[trespoe]

O, rly?

REVENGE!

[video=youtube;VAgLhr6sHtc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAgLhr6sHtc[/video]

 

[gigau]

Two wolves in two days, that's quite a nice score


Given a potential alibi vote on day 1 and throwaway vote on day 2, i'd like to know more on you, Split

Vote The_Split

 

[the_hdk]

you lyched me whie I was etting drnk...

baters !!!!

 

[Nautilu]

Vote gigau He is very quiet and has not generated any attention just yet. He alsothrew his vote away on snoopdog. I am very happy that he did not vote me. But I am not sure why he left the village open to a three way snipe.

 

[trespoe]

Here's a sub spot - Used to belong to HC - Now it's up for grasps! First Come First Serve.

Comes with a selection of the Finest Spam!

I'll do it.

 

[Kingepyon]

On day 1 most of the voting that took place from a third party in ese's favour was done by snoop. Sedracus actually hurt ese's chances by switching to snoop. He's probably not a wolf.

Yesterday, Randy and trespoe were really quick to jump on nautilu yesterday. Now that we know hdk was a wolf, that's pretty interesting. Trespoe also initially suggested a new candidate(Sedracus) and then jumped right on Nautilu when Sedracus didn't go anywhere. AVN chose hdk over randy, so unless AVN is really bloody-thirsty, I doubt he's a wolf.

Nautilu's vote on HDK meant as much as snoops vote on ese on day 1. Nautilu was saving himself, and on day 1 ese was already the leader when snoop switched to him. Both don't work at all towards clearing each player. Snoop did start the votes on hdk, though, so I'll defend him for now.

I'm suspicious of trespoe, but he also helped get ese on day 1. It could have been an alibi gone wrong, but people seem to dislike my alibi theories, so I'll leave him for now.

Split seems like a decent target, and so do Gigau and Nautilu. I'll support all three candidates for today. Split seems like he has enough votes for the time, now whose a better candidate out of Nautilu and Gigau?

 

[trespoe]

On day 1 most of the voting that took place from a third party in ese's favour was done by snoop. Sedracus actually hurt ese's chances by switching to snoop. He's probably not a wolf.

Yesterday, Randy and trespoe were really quick to jump on nautilu yesterday. Now that we know hdk was a wolf, that's pretty interesting. Trespoe also initially suggested a new candidate(Sedracus) and then jumped right on Nautilu when Sedracus didn't go anywhere. AVN chose hdk over randy, so unless AVN is really bloody-thirsty, I doubt he's a wolf.

Nautilu's vote on HDK meant as much as snoops vote on ese on day 1. Nautilu was saving himself, and on day 1 ese was already the leader when snoop switched to him. Both don't work at all towards clearing each player. Snoop did start the votes on hdk, though, so I'll defend him for now.

I'm suspicious of trespoe, but he also helped get ese on day 1. It could have been an alibi gone wrong, but people seem to dislike my alibi theories, so I'll leave him for now.

Split seems like a decent target, and so do Gigau and Nautilu. I'll support all three candidates for today. Split seems like he has enough votes for the time, now whose a better candidate out of Nautilu and Gigau?

The Germans couldn't get their act together today.
[video=youtube;ta1KfRX06kA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta1KfRX06kA[/video]

in other news, I don't think SPLIT is a great choice either, as he also helped lynch Ese. Of course, he is bloodthirsty enough as proved Rd 1 of this game. I wanted to see who would actually vote him.

Why not mention Randakar, yourself, or HC? Nautilu was switching votes a lot more than I was, and I DID mention Sedracus or Nautilu in my post I voted Sedracus. Why focus on me instead of him? I can actually come with a good reason to lynch anyone excepting Snoop and AVN. I am just that paranoid.

There are still 11 players left, most of us have voted at least one wolf. Why not focus on players that haven't?

 

[Kingepyon]

Why not mention Randakar, yourself, or HC? Nautilu was switching votes a lot more than I was, and I DID mention Sedracus or Nautilu in my post I voted Sedracus. Why focus on me instead of him? I can actually come with a good reason to lynch anyone excepting Snoop and AVN. I am just that paranoid.

There are still 11 players left, most of us have voted at least one wolf. Why not focus on players that haven't?

Because I'm not talking about everyone. Just the players who, I think, stick out. I focus on people who switch quickly, alibi or not. I focus on alibi voters because it's happened in every single game I've been in since I've started playing werewolf again. Snoop might have convinced me to vote for someone else a few games ago as his alibi vote was well placed. We're pretty much guaranteed to find a wolf whose helped kill another wolf, it's silly and kind of ignorant to avoid looking at someone just because they killed a wolf. I used to think that, but now my approach needs to be reworked. Instead of focusing on who voted wolves and who didn't, I'm focusing more on how the votes got on those wolves. Did they try to help the wolf before? How fast did that wolf get run up? Where was the vote put on the wolf? That kind of things. I can't separate people into those who have voted for a wolf and those who cannot, it's an outdated thinking style.

And I AM focusing on Nautilu, I just haven't gotten around to the rest of my analysis yet. I like putting some thoughts out there and see how people respond. I did my full analysis on you BECAUSE I don't think you're the best target today, even though I did find your actions worthy of attention. I always give analysis when I can, that way people can know what I'm thinking in the likely event I get hunted.

And I disagree about split. He's a decent target. The first vote on someone on day 1 is usually a pretty unimportant vote. Using LSST, voting for a specific voter, etc. can lead to packmates voting packmates. I never give someone credit for a day 1 first vote. The same thing with snoop on day 1. He put his vote on a wolf after votes didn't matter anymore, yet people are so focused on the fact that he did vote a wolf, rather than the fact that the vote meant nothing to get ese lynched, while the rest of the day he seemed to be moving towards helping esemesas.

 

[randakar]

you lyched me whie I was etting drnk...

baters !!!!

Hey, I didn't like you getting lynched early either
But the game's the game .. and my guess that there was a wolf amongst the remaining malurous voters was pretty spot on it seems.

On day 1 most of the voting that took place from a third party in ese's favour was done by snoop. Sedracus actually hurt ese's chances by switching to snoop. He's probably not a wolf.

That one I'd have to go and read back, I think.

Yesterday, Randy and trespoe were really quick to jump on nautilu yesterday. Now that we know hdk was a wolf, that's pretty interesting.

Agreed on Trespoe. As for myself, I was in a three-way tie and had no desire to let that tie be broken in favor of the village lynching me. The only way out of that spot was to convince the village to move the vote elsewhere, so Nautilu it had to be.

Trespoe also initially suggested a new candidate(Sedracus) and then jumped right on Nautilu when Sedracus didn't go anywhere. AVN chose hdk over randy, so unless AVN is really bloody-thirsty, I doubt he's a wolf.

Trespoe did seem somewhat eager to get the current front runners out of the tight spot, didn't he?
I didn't know he cares so much about me

Nautilu's vote on HDK meant as much as snoops vote on ese on day 1. Nautilu was saving himself, and on day 1 ese was already the leader when snoop switched to him. Both don't work at all towards clearing each player. Snoop did start the votes on hdk, though, so I'll defend him for now.

Really? I thought I was the first one .. ah well. I'm sure you're right.

I'm suspicious of trespoe, but he also helped get ese on day 1. It could have been an alibi gone wrong, but people seem to dislike my alibi theories, so I'll leave him for now.

Alibi theories rarely work early in the game.
There are big exceptions, of course. Like known alibi voter Euro

Split seems like a decent target, and so do Gigau and Nautilu. I'll support all three candidates for today. Split seems like he has enough votes for the time, now whose a better candidate out of Nautilu and Gigau?

Let's not go after nautilu. If we lynch him, and he turns out to be a wolf, I bet I'm up for turning into a midnight snack next
(Ok, ok, fine. If we go after him I'll support it... *sigh*)

Vote Gigau

 

[Kingepyon]

Really? I thought I was the first one .. ah well. I'm sure you're right.

It doesn't count if you push for someone and vote for someone else

Alibi theories rarely work early in the game.
There are big exceptions, of course. Like known alibi voter Euro

Which is too bad, the village lost last game because no one was willing to analyse the possibility of an alibi.

Also, my usual theory when a wolf is lynched day 1 is there's a wolf voting for the one who got lynched, one to help the one who got lynched and one in the random votes.

 

[randakar]

Because I'm not talking about everyone. Just the players who, I think, stick out. I focus on people who switch quickly, alibi or not. I focus on alibi voters because it's happened in every single game I've been in since I've started playing werewolf again. Snoop might have convinced me to vote for someone else a few games ago as his alibi vote was well placed. We're pretty much guaranteed to find a wolf whose helped kill another wolf, it's silly and kind of ignorant to avoid looking at someone just because they killed a wolf. I used to think that, but now my approach needs to be reworked. Instead of focusing on who voted wolves and who didn't, I'm focusing more on how the votes got on those wolves. Did they try to help the wolf before? How fast did that wolf get run up? Where was the vote put on the wolf? That kind of things. I can't separate people into those who have voted for a wolf and those who cannot, it's an outdated thinking style.

Ah, someone is waking up and smelling the roses too, it seems. Good for you.

And I AM focusing on Nautilu, I just haven't gotten around to the rest of my analysis yet. I like putting some thoughts out there and see how people respond. I did my full analysis on you BECAUSE I don't think you're the best target today, even though I did find your actions worthy of attention. I always give analysis when I can, that way people can know what I'm thinking in the likely event I get hunted.

It's nice to know what other players in the game are thinking. Or pretending to be thinking. It makes it harder for the wolves to hide, in any event.

And I disagree about split. He's a decent target. The first vote on someone on day 1 is usually a pretty unimportant vote. Using LSST, voting for a specific voter, etc. can lead to packmates voting packmates. I never give someone credit for a day 1 first vote. The same thing with snoop on day 1. He put his vote on a wolf after votes didn't matter anymore, yet people are so focused on the fact that he did vote a wolf, rather than the fact that the vote meant nothing to get ese lynched, while the rest of the day he seemed to be moving towards helping esemesas.

I do. Simply because I think that day 1 is when people avoid voting their packmate simply because it seems unimportant at the time, and there are plenty of other candidates to choose from.
Not everyone thinks like that though, and now that I've said this people can and probably will (attempt to) exploit it


edit:

Which is too bad, the village lost last game because no one was willing to analyse the possibility of an alibi.

The village lost last game because I liked snoops' effort level, felt I owed him something from a game a LONG time ago (I wonder if snoop remembers), and because there was this non-talking 2-word voter in the village that just irked me. The alibi voting was considered, but everyone had an alibi at that point, so meh.

Also, my usual theory when a wolf is lynched day 1 is there's a wolf voting for the one who got lynched, one to help the one who got lynched and one in the random votes.

Does that actually work though?
Do you have examples of games where that theory was correct?

 

[Kingepyon]

Does that actually work though?
Do you have examples of games where that theory was correct?

It's worked in a couple, I don't really want to dig them up, but I can. It's about 50/50. There's a few things that turn it away, specific people in a pack, but it's fairly right.

I've always been right about a wolf voting for the wolf, which is why I'm focusing so much on alibis.

http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?554975-Werewolf-Lite-CCXII-The-Dalton-Cousins

Vainglory lynched day 1, OY the wolf voted for him, tamius the wolf voted opposite him, and HC the wolf voted for euro, who had 3 votes, but less than second place. So not 100% throw away, but still in the area that I count as "throw aways".

Other than that, it doesn't really hold(). All the games had a wolf voting for the wolf who got lynched, though.