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A China not unchanged with contact by the West but not drastically so.
May the Qing drive back the intruding Russians.
May the Qing drive back the intruding Russians.
Indeed.
Thanks. Yes, most likely.
Yes, hopefully.
The Sino-Russian War (1844—1845)
As the situation rapidly escalated by the Russian declaration of war, China and her vassals (all but the Persians had chosen to support their suzerain in this war) prepared their forces for the defense of the northern frontier. The extensive military expansion program, which had been criticized by the Reformers as unnecessary, now seemed to be extremely appreciated by the Manchu Court. The attitude of the officials in Peking was confident in China’s ultimate victory, just as against the British four years ago, who were said to be the strongest barbarians in Europe. But now the stakes were even bigger, as it was not merely a tributary that was at stake, but half of the Manchu Dynasty's own homeland.
The Chinese Court received word that on February 16, Sofianova, one of the northernmost territories of China, began to be occupied by Russian forces, followed by Utchan on March 4, a Manchu province to the far northeast of Peking. On the 23rd of that month, General Mingzhu Zhanshan’s army engaged the Russian attackers at Sofianova, and on April 2 the government received word that the foreigners had been expelled from the area. However, reports of the victory were tainted by the information that Utchan fell to the invaders on the 29th, who then proceeded to attack the nearest Chinese army units.
The next engagement began on June 4 in Ulusamudan, when a 30,000 strong barbarian force attacked some 24,000 Manchu Bannermen. Despite the arrival of an additional 27,000 Green Standard troops under Hesehn Kang’an, the Russians managed to defeat this combined force, with over 20,000 Chinese casualties in exchange for just around 3000 foreigners. This defeat brought an aura of disappointment to the imperial court in Peking, and cost significant amount of prestige. But the armies of China’s allies and additional reinforcements were making their way north around that time so the Emperor believed the dishonor from the spring of 1844 would soon be rectified.
A minor victory at Khatgal a week later did little to improve the mood in the capital, although it was soon supplemented by news of some 12,000 Mongol and Han cavalrymen defeating a small Russian brigade. On November 6, a combined army of nearly 50,000 men under General Mingzhu engaged a smaller barbarian force in Bulgan, only to be disastrously defeated on the 22nd. A combined Vietnamese, Burmese, Laotian, and Thai army took the Magadachi province of Russia temporarily, before being defeated and forced to withdraw.
The new year of 1845 brought the capitulation of the Chinese vassals to the barbarians, who refused to continue fighting now that their armies were mostly destroyed at Magadachi. The Emperor did not order them to continue to fight as their armies were severely depleted and would not be of much use. The setbacks on the northern front began to worry the Chinese Court, as the Russian armies continued to advance into Chinese territory. In February a minor victory was scored over a brigade trying to occupy Ulitsai. But it did nothing to relieve the panic and anger had begun to set in over the Qing court in Peking, where the Emperor and his advisors formed a quasi-general headquarters. They received word of another major defeat near Khovd, and now with the fall of three Manchurian provinces it seemed it would be inevitable that the barbarian hordes would march on the imperial capital.
The situation was growing worse by the day. After the defeat of another large army near Aigun, the Russian representative in Peking demanded that China hand over the northern Manchuria region, to which the Emperor declined, believing with the Conservative faction that the Chinese army can still carry on the fight. However, another defeat near Khatgal on March 9 convinced the Emperor to change his mind, seeing that the Qing imperial army was no longer capable of containing the barbarian onslaught. This was a thought over decision, but ultimately he decided to offer the Russians control of the territory before the completed routed the Chinese forces and demanded even more land.
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Dark Days of the Dynasty (1845—1848)
The effects of the crushing defeat at the hands of the barbarians could not be overstated. The country went from holding its own against the strongest power of Europe to losing to one of the lesser ones, after a period of just four years. It put a dent in the view of China’s superiority held by both most of the population and the elite, and presented a major loss of face (prestige is back down to zero), which was especially dangerous in an empire where the Manchu ruling dynasty was being increasingly required to prove its worth to the (Han) Beifaren-Nanfaren majority (militancy went up).
Needless to say, the loss of the Manchu dynasty’s homeland was particularly shocking in Peking. There was much outrage and confusion in the early months since the defeat, as the Manchu Princes struggled to come to terms with what had just transpired and stopped calling for more generals to be executed. Now they just silently watched in despair as Halshenwai became "Vladivostok" and their former territories now began to become Russified.
The government was able to revise some statistics, largely at the Emperor's strong persuasion. Now, humiliatingly, from a prewar population of 3.36 million Manchus in the empire, the statics office recorded that it was now down to 2.79 million. That left some 570,000 Manchus outside of the Qing Emperor’s domain, on the other side of the border which was now Russian territory.
The Emperor was quick to react, immediately issuing an edict ordering the recruitment of additional troops, and the purchase of more foreign weapons. He was still a firm believer in the Confucian superiority of China but could not deny that more advancements were needed in the military sphere to improve the empire’s ability to defend its borders. This was especially necessary, as the Son of Heaven remained mindful that ceasefire agreement with the British barbarians would expire in late 1846.
To complicate matters, a pandemic of influenza had broken out during the war and now was having a disastrous affect on some of the provinces. Thousands began to perish. To make matters worse, in August 1845 a scandal with a provincial official in Guangxi caused the dynasty to lose face even further, which certainly did not improve the situation in a country where superstitions were still important. The only respite came the same month when some European merchants from the faraway Ionian Islands praised the quality of Chinese cotton from the western regions of the country, regaining at least some prestige in the eyes of the barbarians after the disastrous outcome of the war.
The loss of face for the Manchus as a result of the war also led to the rise of different rebel groups plotting to rebel, according to the Emperor’s informants, with a notable incident being the attempt of an ethnic Min poet preaching for a secessionist movement in the south. Despite the anger of the Conservatives the Emperor chose to not execute the man, for fear of further aggravating the situation.
In January 1846 an armed uprising was almost begun in Shaozhou, but the provincial officials managed to defuse the situation with consultation with the Son of Heaven, and to make things worse the pandemic continued when it was thought to be dying out.
After the army had finished developing a staff system for better organization and command during times of war, the Emperor decided to focus on economics and develop more trade with the barbarians for some of their technology, thus researching the European concept of Freedom of Trade.
The situation throughout the empire remained tense as different ethnic groups suddenly began to feel more conscious of their identity, while the local Chinese army garrison was forced to step in to resolve situations and often received the ire of the Emperor’s subjects. Meanwhile, as a result of all of this, the Reformers faction began to grow more influential in court at the expense of the Conservatives, although their ideas of embracing some barbarian technology and cultural aspects were far from heeded by the Emperor. But he did agree with obtaining more of their foreign technological wonders.
At the same time, the pandemic seemed to have finally stopped, and the Chinese government began to have more dialogue with foreign envoys, particularly the British and the Americans. In early 1848 the British representatives had met the Emperor and their standing in Peking actually increased to the point where many Chinese bureaucrats in the capital had a friendly opinion of them, but they still remained barbarians as far as the official policies were concerned.
However, in March 1848, despite the increase in relations between England and China, the barbarians had the audacity to once again attempt to invade one of the Emperor’s tributaries, Tibet. No doubt they had become emboldened by the success of the Russians a few years ago. The Qing had no choice but again to war to defend the empire’s interests and prove to the world that China had not lost her will to fight.
(I try to be mindful of the pacing but since this section was basically an interlude I decided to post it right away).
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So round two against the British. Can China restore some pride? One would hope English logistics would count against them, but technology marches on.
If you think you have it bad now, just wait for when you civilize and Liberals and Communists start rebelling every two minutes
Yes, that is their intent at this point. The terrain indeed plays to China's favor in the south.
It would be interesting if there would be a rebellion before civilizing, like some kind of Boxer rebellion.
We shall see, but hopefully yes.
The Second Anglo-Chinese War (1848—1849)
The Emperor’s fears about continued barbarian aggression had come true, as not long after the treaty with the United Kingdom expired, the barbarians again attempted to take over Tibet. The dynasty would have no choice but to go to war once again, and this time the court in Peking had to make sure to triumph. A further loss of face would be catastrophic. The Chinese army once more began their forced marches of long distances, this time to the south instead of the north. The British entered the Kashgar province in May 1848, but the first combat did not occur June 23, again in the Lhodrak province, where the British launched their first offensive against the Chinese defenders.
In early July came China’s first victory at Lhodrak, where the Chinese were also aided by the Army of Tibet under General Dzasa—the same one who had fought against the British years ago. The valiant defenders successfully held their ground in the mountains against the barbarian offensive. Also that month the Russians shamelessly asked for military access, as they were fighting their own war in Asia, which the Emperor refused.
The second battle began on August 7, again in Lhodrak, as another British force attempted to again storm the mountain defenses held by the Chinese and Tibetan forces. On the 11th, another battle erupted further to the north in the Chinese Khotan region, where an army moving on Kashgar had met a small barbarian force that was advancing north from Tibet. On the 23rd it was over, with the British being forced back into Tibet after heavy fighting in the Qinghai deserts—to the Manchu Court’s delight, only 700 Chinese casualties were taken while nearly 5700 barbarians had fallen.
Then, September 18, word reached Peking that the second barbarian offensive at Lhodrak was repelled, with some 10,000 Chinese losses in exchange for over 40,000 barbarians. The fighting in the freezing mountains of Tibet had been intense and dragged for weeks, with many dying on both sides because of the cold and lack of supplies. It was the largest battle thus far, with nearly 45,000 British troops and additional Chinese reinforcements bringing the total Chinese-Tibetan army to some 60,000 men. The Emperor celebrated the massive victory.
As if to reverse the loss of face of the past several years and the Russian war, news of Chinese successes spread quickly throughout the world (gained around 6 prestige so far). So much so that the Indian state of Panjab, which had lost a region to the Englishmen, offered the Qing Emperor’s armies military access to their territory, which the court graciously accepted.
On October 19 and November 2, the battles of Changtang and Kashgar began, respectively. Chinese troops liberating the province in the far west that was occupied by the barbarians came under attack, and the Chinese defenders in the Tibetan region of Changtang held their ground against a British assault.
General Guan Xingde’s forces were praised by the Emperor for their victory at Changtang on November 23, defeating a large British force. The battle was even bigger than the Lhodrak offensive, where General Guan’s tactics and taking advantage of the mountainous terrain allowed him to unleash destruction upon the hated barbarian invaders. The enemy General Edwar Fisher lost over 50,000 troops, partly to combat and partly to the freezing weather and illness, while Chinese losses were barely around 2500 men. This further increased the dynasty’s prestige (4 from that battle alone).
By the end of the month victory was likewise attained at Kashgar by General Oboi Xiangying’s army, and although it was not as major as the one at Changtang, the Emperor was pleased to see a province of his realm be liberated.
In early December, the Board of War in Peking (which functioned as a general headquarters to command the army, since the invention of the military staff system) had ordered the Chinese army to go on a ‘winter offensive’ in order to dislodge the barbarians from the occupied southwestern Tibetan provinces. The coup de grace was successfully delivered by General Guan’s troops against the occupiers in Shigatse and Ngari, valiantly fighting in the freezing December temperatures in the mountains. The barbarians were completely annihilated, a suitable punishment for their crimes against the Great Qing.
As the new year of 1849 began, the liberation of Kashgar was finished and the liberation of the two Tibetan provinces began. Against the advice of General Guan, the Tibetan commander General Dzasa decided to press on into barbarian-controlled Indian Territory. In late March, meanwhile, the scouts reported that the barbarian leaders had decided to attempt their own counteroffensive across the whole front.
However, Britain's final counteroffensive stalled and ultimately failed. In April, their forces were repulsed by General Guan at Ngari with heavy losses, although Chinese troops were also becoming exhausted by the continuous warfare in the cold mountains. A few days later another attack was defeated at Tawang, in southern Tibet, while intense fighting was continuing in Kashgar. The Manchu Court sent a personal congratulatory note to General Guan for making the Emperor's light shine gloriously in Tibet.
Apparently enlightened by the string of uninterrupted military defeats, the English envoy to Peking asked the Emperor of China for a ceasefire and negotiations, to which the Manchu Court happily agreed. Once again it seemed that the British threat had been held at bay.
It seems the difference is, at least partly, one of numbers. Against Britain the numbers favour China. Not always so against Russia and the Eurasian hordes.
How to gain numerical superiority against Russia? That is a challenge for any nation.
Partly, but not always, because on many occasions China outnumbered Russia but was still defeated.
Meanwhile East Manchuria is being Russified, you must do something about this
That may happen at some point, but the Manchus were humbled by their defeat to Russia so I do not think they would try anything. Yet.
During the war there was numeric superiority over Russia in many cases but it was apparently not enough.
Calm Before the Storm (1849—1855)
With the victory over the British in spring 1849, the Manchu Court and the entire country rejoiced. China had proved to the world that it was still capable of defending its empire from Europe’s strongest barbarian power and had regained prestige in the eyes of Asia (went from zero to 17). The Manchus felt that they had cleared their dishonor of having lost territory to the Russians previously, by defeating these even more powerful barbarians. Additionally it made Emperor believe that the Chinese army reforms were the right path.
Despite the ‘face saving’ measure, the ethnic tensions resumed shortly after the war’s conclusion. During the conflict they actually subsided and largely the population rallied in support of their emperor and country against the foreign aggressor. Now that the English barbarians lost favor in Peking as a result of this war, the Americans and the Frenchmen sought to fill the void among the diplomatic circles in the imperial capital.
Having completed the Freedom of Trade research, the ports opened up to more commerce and the government’s annual income tripled. This allowed the Emperor to increase the army even further, and now, some other developments caused him to begin researching naval science.
He had kept watch over Japanese affairs through his diplomats there out of personal interest. Incredibly, the small island tributary had over a hundred brigades of soldiers and also possessed a considerable fleet of warships. Not to be outdone by a vassal, the Emperor was determined to build up the Chinese imperial navy—or rather, create one.
The army expansion also continued, and for future precaution the government commissioned the construction of a series of forts along the western frontier and Tibetan border. In order to prevent another costly war with the British the Emperor asked his diplomats to take measures to improve relations with those particular barbarians, so that hopefully they would understand that Tibet was not theirs for the taking. In addition, the Kashgar province became the headquarters of a 12,000-strong permanent garrison of predominantly Uigher Sunni Muslim soldiers.
Meanwhile, the country continued to earn prestige for its quality goods as exports to Europe increased.
However, another disruption came in 1851 as the Russians declared war once again, this time demanding the Sofianova region. Not only that, but alarmingly the French decided it was better to support their Russian ally than to maintain their economic relations with China. The Chinese army, still recovering from the conflict against England, once again prepared to go on the march, this time back north.
But after deliberations with his advisors the Emperor decided to simply give the Sofianova region to the foreigners. Unlike last time, this region is not the Manchu home land, it is a minor province in a far corner of the empire. Apparently the Russians have a legitimate claim over it, and it even still has a barbarian name. The Son of Heaven did not want to destroy his best and most experienced units, recovering from the British war, fighting in a futile gesture to keep control of one minor province. Instead he chose to acquiesce to their demands.
Although this action was naturally unpopular with the Conservatives, both the liberal Reformers and the moderate Imperial Faction thought that it was a sensible course of action. The other barbarians also saw it as a sign of weakness (losing 8 prestige), but the Emperor was convinced that he made the right decision.
Later on the government accepted an alliance offer from Nepal, if only to make sure they don’t side with the barbarians in future wars. But the Emperor has begun taking actions to increase relations with the British in order to prevent them from trying to invade Tibet again.
In September 1851 word reached Peking that the barbarians from England once again declared war on the Indian state of Panjab. Seeing this opportunity to increase relations, the Emperor offered the British military access to Chinese territory if they needed it for the war. Having finished researching Clippers the Emperor then decided to study Post-Nelsonian Thought once again from the Europeans to learn about naval science.
Throughout the early 1850s the country continued on its path of isolation while adopting more Western technology. The Emperor declined an alliance offer from Panjab, which had given up a region to Britain, no doubt seeking protection. But quite to the contrary, the Manchu Court hoped that the barbarians would be distracted with their conquest of India and would stop trying to attack Tibet.
The Emperor also ordered further purchases of weaponry, including Muzzle-loaded rifles and the construction of a system of forts on the northern frontier.
In addition, the Son of Heaven began paying more attention to barbarian affairs, hearing in 1852 that the German kingdom of Prussia had formed a unified German state. He greeted the new confederation’s envoys in Peking.
Two years later the Manchu Court was shocked to hear that Japan had now fallen into the Russian sphere of influence—a traditional vassal of China was now beholden to the barbarians.
Throughout the mid-1850s China experienced a period of growth in its continued isolation. In early 1855 when the Russians declared war on another far off barbarian land known as the Ottoman Empire, they had the audacity to ask for military access to Chinese territory. Needless to say, they were refused.
However, this period of peace was disrupted on 7 May 1855 when the British barbarians again declared war on Tibet. Their insolence enraged the Manchu court, and not having a choice the Chinese army prepared for battle yet again. But this time Manchu leaders, including the Emperor, were not so much enraged as thinking "here we go again", wondering whether the British will make a more concerted effort this time.
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