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alright so we've killed two yellows and two reds and the sorc
assuming packs of 4 there should be 4 wolfs left two for each maybe nine if the no hunt hit a cursed
 
Official vote count, 23h 12min to deadline

beartjah - 1 - Avernite

not voted - 9 - Capibara, alynkio, reis91, beartjah, Caillean, brovahkiin, aedan777, Sleepyhead, Arkasas

missed two votes - 1 - Capibara
 
Indeed, indeed.

And the wolves did us the favour of murdering the knight deluded into being his most ardent defender. So I am going to assume one of his less ardent defenders was his ally.

Vote beartjah
I wasn't at all defending Hax, I was merely hoping to get something more out of this day then just killing him with no information on anyone else gained. If you'd read the posts I made yesterday you'll see I wasn't at all opposed hitting Hax, I just wanted to have a second candidate alongside him:

Hax's ignoring of the Xarkan case makes him a strong candidate. I wouldn't expect a villager to ignore the Xarkan case like this, which makes him a very good candidate for packmate of Xarkan.
If we look at the res of his behaviour in previous days he hasn't voted either Xarkan or Dedonus:
On day 3 he created he created a three way tie where Dedonus was already in the tie. And then he does the same thing again later when someone removes a still living player from a three way tie including dedonus.
On day 2 he created a four way tie. No currently known wolves in that tie.
On day 1 he pushed sleepy up to three when there was a 4-4 between TFW an Dedonus.
Quite a bit of his TIE creation was in favour of wolves, creating more candidates reducing the probability of a wolf dying. This could be really bad luck but this certainly doesn't help his case after seemingly trying to save Xarkan.
Yes, Hax is a very good candidates, and should probably be lynched today.

It should be noted however that sleepy didn't address the case on Xarkan either, just argueing with Hax over his own guilt. Though this could still be explained by him being too busy defending himself to take a closer look at the other candidates.
I have to say though that his story about the Dedonus snipe day 1 still feels a bit off to me, though with the case being made by extremely suspicioud Hax I'm not sure we should follow along on that. There's one thing that doesn't quite make sense to me though: Xarkan brought TFW back as a three way tie on day 1. If dedonus was going to snipe, why risk drawing attention to yourslef like that? Could someone explain what reasons Xarkan could have to do that?
Again looking at the rest of what he did:
Day 1: he was as said saved by Xarkan and Dedonus(and he himself was also on TFW). His TFW vote came when Ded-TFW were 2-2, pushing away from Ded(though this was early so not sure how much this means).
Day 2: Prevented four way tie killing Yakman and saving Xarkan in the process.
Day 3: Pushed Yvanoff back into a three way tie that included Dedonus.
His voting isn't exactly good either, Some of his votes were also suspiciously much helping wolves.
But since Hax is being targetted(and I suspect likely lynched) today I think we should leave that for now, both to not keep running up the same candidates and to see if we get information on Hax's role since that would probably tell a thing or two about Sleepy as well after what happened yesterday.


Hax is already on two votes and I don't want this day to end with Hax being lynched by a landslide with no information gained beyond the roles of two dead people. So let's look for another candidate to run up alongside Hax(yes, I know some people may have already been doing/suggesting looking at other candidates, if so just agreeing with them).
Assuming he's a yellow I'm somewhat doubtful there's going to be many yellows left. If we take 1/3 baddies like a lot of people seem to be taking for granted in earlier games, we'd have 8 baddies. Split across two packs that'd give 3 per pack plus two unaligned(sorc + something else?).

I suspect one of Hax or Sleepy is going to be yellow(with Hax more likely, and a small chance of both if by guess at pack size is wrong), which would mean that barring a cursed I'd say it's at least mildly unlikely for there to be another yellow running about. Might be time we start running up people in the hope's of hitting a red since we don't seem to be getting any info on the reds from the hunts killing one of them.
Unfortunately, we do not have any info to go on regarding red wolves. All we can do is run up some less visibly present candidates that might be hoping to not draw too much attention on themselves while the village cleans up the yellows. Though it should be said that the reds could just as well be leading the hunt on the yellows to remove attention from themselves, so I'm not sure how good this idea actually is.
That would put I think Aedan, caillean, capibara and Alynkio up as candidates(yes, I fully realize I myself might not be extremely visible either, but I'm obv. not going to vote myself).

Caillean moslty gives me the impressions she's genuinely busy. Some of her votes(esp. day 2) weren't exactly what I would call a brilliant way to keep your head down since they lacked any serious explanation. Being busy does not imply wolf as far as I know.

Capibara just flat out missed a vote. That too comes across as not enough time rather than hiding wolf.

Alynkio pushed Caillean close to the deadline getting some attention for it. That could be constructed as a way to save someone who was at risk of the lynch though.
Day 1: throwaway on Yakman
Day 2: Push on Caillean near the deadline. Not vote prior to that. could be seen as saving someone, though i think Capi is the only candidate to be saved since I doubt there's more yellow out there.
Day 3: Third Esemesas voter, at the time there were quite a few people on two votes(Dedonus, and from the living: Arkasas, Reis). Could again be constructed as saving someone, though that might be stretching it.
Day 4: On Xarkan.

Aedan has very, very few posts.
Day 1: Pushed Dedonues into tie
Day 2: Pushed Xarkan into three way with Capi and Yakman
Day 3: Pushed up Esemesas. From I can see everyone else in the votes at that time were either yellow or villager
Day 4: Voted hax.

Caillean and Capibara come off as beig busy which might not be the best place to start looking for reds, though of course it's not impossible either.
Out of Aedan and Alynkio I think Alynkio has done more things which could've been saving someone, so I'd say we start there.
Of course, we should not forgot about Hax, he needs to be up in the votes today regardless of who else we pick.

Well this got longer than I expected, I need to go off to cook dinner....
I think it's now Hax 1-2 Alynkio?
VOTE ALYNKIO

I agree he's a probable wolf, but wouldn't it be better to at least try to get more information from today than just killing hax?
Not that that's still gonna happen with the deadline this close...

Unfortunately, Caillean's vote seems to have smothered any real chance of TIEing Hax with someone else.
 
I feel vindicated.

So yesterday I was up against one red and one yellow. The ones who winded up voting for me are likely both. I'll go with the one who has avoided all attention until now.

Vote reis91
 
Surprising. Both that Hax was red, and that the wolves would go for a used up zombie hunter like Esemesas. I had him down as an obvious villager for the past couple days since he claimed zombie hunter and had some confirmed votes down on yellow wolves. Wagon the red wolf was a zombie hunter, so it was unlikely they had two zombie hunters to begin with. Likewise an important goodie wouldn't out themselves as a zombie hunter, so he wouldn't be that. Odd and dumb choice to hunt him while the seer is still around.

Hax being red just convinces me even more firmly that sleepyhead is in fact a yellow wolf. But still, what can we learn from Hax's death? The four people who voted him to death are less likely red wolves, however the fact he was by that point widely considered the default lynch and never even showed up to vote leaves lots of room open to sell out votes. Prior to yesterday the only living players he voted are Capibara and Sleepyhead, both with dangerous votes, so they're unlikely reds, and the only one who voted him was me on day 4, making me also an unlikely red. The Sleepyhead point is rather moot in my opinion since he's a very likely yellow.

While Avernite, Arkasas, alynkio, and Caillean have some anti-red points for voting Hax into the lynch, the probability of selling him out is high, and I'd honestly be shocked if there isn't a red wolf or two in that list.

Also, with 24 starting players, I think we're looking at 8 starting baddies, particularly since we've seen at least one cursed. So I think the packs started with 3 wolves each, plus a sorcerer and another unaligned baddie, either a warlock or a cultist. This means we're looking at possibly three or four baddies left, depending on whether the no-hunt was a cursed. 1 wolf of each pack, possibly a second for one of them, and an unattached baddie are probably what we're up against. 10 players left in total. Not bad odds.

Sleepyhead's extremely likely to be the final starting yellow wolf, so I'll be going with him for now, will look more into the last starting red wolf. A cursed is also possible, so that'll be something to keep an eye out for.

Vote Sleepyhead
 
Based on what exactly? You don't actually state your case here. I was run up twice along two different yellow wolves, of which I killed one. Sure it was self preservation, but still.

If the packs are as small as you claim they are, you don't think that I'd have placed an alibi vote to make me look better? Avoided pack voting? It appears I voted with them twice. Same number as Caillean who was on me rather than Hax or Xarkan yesterday.
 
Well, I guess if Xarkan was a wolf of the red pack, Hax is definitely getting the chop. With brovah as nr 2.

All other options are less obvious, though I guess Hax would still get the chop if Xarkan was a yellow.
Hmm, I remembered the wrong b. And brovahkiin was also a mild anti-Hax-vote activist, though I suppose my prior argument that he and Hax were both Reds if Xarkan was a red makes less sense now (but, in hindsight, it never made much sense).

Even so, he was an attempted saviour for Xarkan and an attempted distracter from Hax, so he could be either pack.

UNvote beartjah, Vote brovahkiin
 
SIR-BEDIVERE-AT-THE-WATERSIDE-WITH-THE-SWORD-OF-EXCALIBUR-1-K3584.jpg

my friends, my brother knights
I have been indecisive and rambling as of late, but I am still am still a true knight and I know my purpose.
I have come here to kill saxons, throw magic swords in lakes and out wolfs. And I'm all out of saxons and magic swords
I was praying late at night as is my custom when I spied Reynald De Châtillion slay our Saracen friend. I was unarmed them and could not save him, but I will avenge him at least

A Knight Errant Outing, Alyinko is a wolf who hunted last night.
Get em

Vote alyinko
 
SIR-BEDIVERE-AT-THE-WATERSIDE-WITH-THE-SWORD-OF-EXCALIBUR-1-K3584.jpg

my friends, my brother knights
I have been indecisive and rambling as of late, but I am still am still a true knight and I know my purpose.
I have come here to kill saxons, throw magic swords in lakes and out wolfs. And I'm all out of saxons and magic swords
I was praying late at night as is my custom when I spied Reynald De Châtillion slay our Saracen friend. I was unarmed them and could not save him, but I will avenge him at least

A Knight Errant Outing, Alyinko is a wolf who hunted last night.
Get em

Vote alyinko
Comm. Cody you shouldn't hack other people's accounts.:p
 
*sigh*

vote alynkio
 
Why so early? Now we'll have another day without good debate :rolleyes:. The only real question now is going to be who is more trustworthy: Brovakiin or Alynkio. Unless we're going to pick someone to tie with to get some more information, but that got nowhere yesterday. Would anyone be up for trying that?


Brovakiin: Opposed the Hax lynch saying he looked villagery. Could be a mistaken villager but puts him up for quite some suspicion. Was on sleepy on day 4 and 1. Day 2 on Yak and day 3 early on Dedonus. The dedonus vote makes him somewhat unlikely yellow, but could still be a fit for the reds.

Alynkio: Has a somewhat bad voting record, doing multiple things that could've been saving someone. Could be a yellow since his day 2 and 3 votes helped Dedonus, though that would require him alibi'ing Xarkan. Voted hax day 5 which would seem to give him anti-red points, except that Hax was by then already the obvious candidate so i'm doubtful how much that says.

Neither seems to be extremely trustworthy. Both could fit with the reds, and both have some points against being a yellow. If it's a fake outting the baddies must be on the brink of getting parity which seems unlikely with 2 dead in both packs, they'd need to have 4 baddies together in one pack/unaligned for that.

VOTE ALYNKIO
 
Oh! If you're and looking for some cheering up
Then just head right on up to the new Werewolf Lite
When you get inside you'll find yourself a cheery land
Such a happy and joyful and perky, merry land
They've got villagers and werewolves and guardian angels
Oh so many roles that will brighten up your day
It's impossible to wear a frown in Werewolf Lite!
It's the mecca of love, the Werewolf Game
They've got seers and spokesmen with little hats
PM chats, JL hacks, it's a wonderland of fear (for wolves)
Ride the bandwagon to town and await the vote-count
Lynching wolves it's a treat as they burn at the stake
Analysis posts run some players into the ground
Turn around
It astounds!
It's a Dedonus probability theory
In the Werewolf Lite imagination runs so free
So now Big Players, please will you go into the cave

Boom!
 
You know, I had a gut feeling this would happen... Go village, I guess!
 
Ok, so initially I was suspicious of this outing since it claimed to know Alynkio hunted last night, and I recall Johho and Randy discussing their dislike for it earlier. But on reflection, Johho does make it clear that he intended to keep the trait in the game, so this claim isn't impossible. It would've been fired off with only a 50% chance of success, but it could have been done. No other role or trait could be able to identify that Alynkio was a wolf who hunted last night. If true, this would indicate that the red pack hunted last night, which would fit with an ABAB hunt pattern, since the yellow pack hunted night 0, as we know from a dead red wolf that night. Well, the changeling role makes that all questionable, but Alynkio's far more likely to be a red wolf than a yellow from the voting record, which points to Sleepyhead as the last yellow wolf. Alynkio is likewise one of the players I indicated as a likely sell out vote on Hax. He also could've been cursed and hunted by the yellows with either a changeling or an unusual hunting pattern responsible for other inconsistencies. I'd still bet on red wolf though, we don't even know if a changeling is in the game.

But, Alynkio could be innocent and the target of a lie by Brovahkiin. I find this a bit unlikely because it leaves the major question of why would Brovahkiin do this if he's lying? He was not previously in danger, and make a false outing would basically assure his death, especially with the seer still around. The one usual possibility for this, Spiritually Attuned, isn't in this game, so Brovahkiin couldn't have been scanned and preemptively outed the seer to score his side a point. Unless the set-up is massively imbalanced more than I think possible, this can't be a parity push either. There are too many downsides to this, and too few benefits, for me to plausibly buy that Brovahkiin is pulling one over on us here.

So lynch Alynkio we must (and sleepyhead tomorrow I suppose)

Unvote Sleepyhead Vote Alynkio
 
Bo-ring!