The problem we run into here is that by lynching a no-show we limit the analysis we can make simply because there was barely any contest. Although we might do well to poke around the time I made a 3-way tie and see who jumped on that.
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Actually, lynching Arkasas would give info on both Xarkan and Hax, who jumped off of him and onto jeray once the opportunity arose.
Unvote alynkio
Vote Arkasas
Unvote alynkio
Vote Arkasas
Looking at the setups then given we have a dead we either are grün or gelb. In the case it's gelb then today would be the penultimate day, hence I propose we TIE today and not tomorrow. If we have gelb then the baddies would be able to snipe tomorrow.
If we mislynch today and tommorow we are down to ten players. Couldn't the warlock and wolves just establish contact out in the open in the thread and get their parity like that?
This might be down to what counts as "in contact with the wolves", if a lot of villagers pretend to be warlock they can't know for certain who is the real warlock.
edit: assuming this is the version with the warlock in it of course
If we're gelb then the baddies can obtain parity tomorrow.
They would be able to make contact in thread, yes.
Deadline isn't tested at deadline? In other words, it would be foolish for the warlock to reveal themselves in the thread?
The warlock has no scan ability and no wolves were lynched. So I don't see how the warlock could've contacted the wolves yet (unless he PMd someone at random and got lucky)
Inb4 people try to lynch me for saying this
Inb4 people try to lynch me for saying this
But if a couple of villagers go running about claiming they're the warlock as well, does he still count against parity if the baddies don't know who the real warlock is? I mean, the idea behind parity was I think that the baddies can just start block-voting till all villagers are dead, but if a lot of villagers claim warlock as well that voting block can't really happen right?
Wasn't there a game a year or two ago, where there were arguing whether parity could be reached at any time or only at deadline?
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How about, instead of lynching an innocent Arkasas to gain information on Hax and Xarkan, we just lynch Hax and/or Xarkan?
Though maybe not Hax... He's not usually this weird/intoxicated as a baddie. So I'll vote Xarkan.
Vote Xarkan
Though maybe not Hax... He's not usually this weird/intoxicated as a baddie. So I'll vote Xarkan.
Vote Xarkan
When it's down to 10 people then just out yourself as warlock. That's it.
Parity is the wolves coming out in public and overrunning the village, if we're looking at it lore wise. And you can block vote when the warlock comes out, even if there's multiple warlock claimants. Just vote a person not claiming warlock. A genuine warlock will be willing to follow that. The hunt then makes sure that there won't be any problems even if there's a TIE of a wolf and a villager.
At least in bigs parity is tested at all times. You should know, as in Harbingers the game ended shortly after deadline when you as a cultist attached to the pack I was in.
Hmm, discussion of parity rules aside, I'm most suspicious of Xarkan from day 1. He was the main beneficiary of the heavy push on Jeray late in the day, making a wolf save quite possible. Determining if he's a wolf could lead us to many other suspects, so I think he's the best lynch for today.
Vote Xarkan
Vote Xarkan
Vote Xaryan
For totally legit reasojs that have nothing to do with follow the leader.
For totally legit reasojs that have nothing to do with follow the leader.
Anyway, Yvanoff didn't have any other options to go to to prevent a tie. Not having a day 1 tie is in the interest of the village, so unless xarkan later turns out as a wolf I don't think this voteswitch is damning at all really.
Hax was really, really weird. But I don't see what a baddie would stand to gain from doing that kind of stuff? It might be an elaborate save of Xarkan by creating enough chaos that nobody dares to move anymore and he can decide the lynch, but seems like massively overthinking it. Not that I really see what a villager would stand to gain from this either, might be an attempt to create action but nobody seems to have responded. Either way I have the feeling he's going to give us more to work with soon enough, if he keeps up the same level of activity.
Arkasas seems to be targetted because people jumped off him when he complained about being the day 1 target a couple of games in a row. I would've done the exact same if I had my vote an Arky, so I'm not convinced this says anything. If the people jumping off were wolves I wonder why they even voted him the first place, jumping off a packmate like that would just make them look bad.
Xarkan was saved by Yvanoff. The votes that saved him were made by Xarkan himself and Yvanoff in tie prevention. Hax's vote was redundant, Jeray was already ahead by 2 votes. If Xarkan turns out as wolf we'd have only Yvanoff, and even he would have at least something of an excuse for his voteswitch in TIE prevention. Might be better to put pressure on someone new instead of running him up again.
Not exactly impressed by any of the cases, even by the standards of day 2 voting. I'm not sure if there's really all that much on day 1 that looks very suspicious. Might be better to go for people that had relatively little to do with the first days events in the hopes of getting info on more people instead.
That said, I do need to vote someone.
VOTE RAMIUS
For lazy bandwagoning.
Hax was really, really weird. But I don't see what a baddie would stand to gain from doing that kind of stuff? It might be an elaborate save of Xarkan by creating enough chaos that nobody dares to move anymore and he can decide the lynch, but seems like massively overthinking it. Not that I really see what a villager would stand to gain from this either, might be an attempt to create action but nobody seems to have responded. Either way I have the feeling he's going to give us more to work with soon enough, if he keeps up the same level of activity.
Arkasas seems to be targetted because people jumped off him when he complained about being the day 1 target a couple of games in a row. I would've done the exact same if I had my vote an Arky, so I'm not convinced this says anything. If the people jumping off were wolves I wonder why they even voted him the first place, jumping off a packmate like that would just make them look bad.
Xarkan was saved by Yvanoff. The votes that saved him were made by Xarkan himself and Yvanoff in tie prevention. Hax's vote was redundant, Jeray was already ahead by 2 votes. If Xarkan turns out as wolf we'd have only Yvanoff, and even he would have at least something of an excuse for his voteswitch in TIE prevention. Might be better to put pressure on someone new instead of running him up again.
Not exactly impressed by any of the cases, even by the standards of day 2 voting. I'm not sure if there's really all that much on day 1 that looks very suspicious. Might be better to go for people that had relatively little to do with the first days events in the hopes of getting info on more people instead.
That said, I do need to vote someone.
Sure. But I don't think 14 people is really enough to count as a Polis though
VOTE RAMIUS
For lazy bandwagoning.