Werewolf Lite CDXXIII: Flight of the Eisenstein

[Dedonus]

Day 1

Spoiler

Jeray: 6
Beartjah[42]
Esemesas[55 Yakman -> 79 Arkasas -> 86]
Arkasas[46 Yakman -> 68 Jeray -> 89]
Xarkan[93 Arkasas -> 105]
Yvanoff[38 Alynkio -> 74 Brovahkiin -> 95 Xarkan -> 125]
Hax[41 Yvanoff -> 61 Brovah -> 78 Hax -> 83 Ramius -> 87 Esemesas -> 98 Arkasas -> 117 Jeray -> 122 aedan -> 124 randakar -> 126 Caillean -> 127 Xarkan -> 128 Yakman -> 129]

Xarkan: 3
Dedonus[43]
Yakman[44 Beartjah -> 69 jeray -> 76 Brovahkiin -> 94]
Wagonlitz[60 Arkasas -> 96]

Brovahkiin: 1
Alynkio[66 Jeray -> 72]

Arkasas: 1
aedan[49]

Yakman: 1
Ramius[81 Esemesas -> 82]

Esemesas: 1
Brovahkiin[39 Hax -> 85 Arkasas -> 90]

Randakar: 1
Caillean[106]

Caillean: 1
Randakar[109]

Not Voted: 1
jeray2000

Day 2

Spoiler

Arkasas: 4
Xarkan[140]
Esemesas[153 Alynkio -> 162]
Caillean[184]
Hax[159 Beartjah -> 188 Wagonlitz -> 203]

Xarkan: 4
aedan[176]
ramius[177]
Wagonlitz[147 Hax -> 182]
Alynkio[186 Wagonlitz -> 202]

Hax: 1
Randakar[144]

Yvanoff: 1
Yakman[141]

Dedonus: 1
Yvanoff[150]

Randakar: 1
Dedonus[160]

Ramius: 1
Arkasas[173 Xarkan -> 180]

Wagonlitz: 1
Beartjah[179 Ramius -> 190]

 

[Yvanoff]

What risks? Every single of the variants has a free TIE. Only things different is which day is the optimal one to use it on. In games where fall gelb is a possibility it usually is taken day 2, just in case.

First, this idea of a free TIE is a bit BS. Sure, tying two villagers together don't advance parity day, but it means in the latter stages the wolves will control an higher proportion of the votes, meaning they have less villagers to convince to have the vote swing their way.
Second, I'm not sure how useful tying two villagers is. And here we really were tying in the dark, without really suspicious people to tie. At least it increased the probability of catching a baddie and turned out well in this case (but if I may, I'll point out that we really were lucky since Arky was essentially a villager here. A baddie villager, but a villager nonetheless. We got him essentially at random).

So.... All's well than ends well, in this case

Well, a dead warlock at least means we have a seer running about.

Yeah that's the real silver lining here. And the Warlock can no longer disrupt the Seer's scans

 

[Yakman]

Hmm...

 

[Yakman]

Thought xarkan might be a baddie...

SPACE WOLVES!!!

 

[Wagonlitz]

First, this idea of a free TIE is a bit BS. Sure, tying two villagers together don't advance parity day, but it means in the latter stages the wolves will control an higher proportion of the votes, meaning they have less villagers to convince to have the vote swing their way.
Second, I'm not sure how useful tying two villagers is. And here we really were tying in the dark, without really suspicious people to tie. At least it increased the probability of catching a baddie and turned out well in this case (but if I may, I'll point out that we really were lucky since Arky was essentially a villager here. A baddie villager, but a villager nonetheless. We got him essentially at random).

So.... All's well than ends well, in this case

The lynch is the weapon of the village. Lynching more than one person means that the village takes the initiative.
Also, if you're standing at the last day then having as few people as possible is an advantage. As a baddie I vastly prefer as many people remaining on the last day as possible. That makes it much easier to hide. And it leaves more people who you might be able to convince to pack the wolf candidate on the last day.

 

[Yakman]

VOTE @Yvanoff

CLEARLY THE VILLAGE SHOULD NOW SEE TAINT OF VILE CHAOS!!!

PURGE!!!

PURGE!!!

SPACE WOLVES!!!

 

[randakar]

Ok. I am clearly not giving this game the attention it deserves. My apologies.
Busy day, really.

Regarding the game:
- Hax. Seems more of a villager than evil, after some reconsidering.
- Wagonlitz feels suspicious for the way that tie risked fall gelb.
- everyone else: no real clue. Though there were more people around who could have prevented that tie, whom clearly are suspicious.

I am happy the wolves ate Caillean, doing the village a favor by reducing the number of easy scapegoats. I am definitely not trying to get them to not eat me.

Vote Wagonlitz

As a side note, I like the thought some people put into their posts. You know who you are.

 

[randakar]

I note here two lazy votes.

Very busy people votes, as evidence by the fact that this was still in my quote buffer two days later

 

[Yvanoff]

As a side note, I like the thought some people put into their posts. You know who you are.

I trust you're referring to @Yakman ?

 

[Yakman]

I trust you're referring to @Yakman ?

SHAME! villain!

SPACE WOLVES!!!

 

[Wagonlitz]

- Wagonlitz feels suspicious for the way that tie risked fall gelb.

How did the TIE risk fall gelb? The entire point in having a TIE yesterday was to not get in trouble in case it was gelb.
You're not making sense here, Randy.

 

[Wagonlitz]

I think we might want to look at Alynkio as he's been uncharacteristically quiet. He only has 6 posts in the entire thread and as one was the in post then he only has 5 posts actually pertaining to the game. I've quoted all his game posts here.

Day one he makes a threeway between Arky, Jeray, and Yakman.

Canada is heresy.

VOTE JERAY

Triple Tie! Panzer tells me 3 is the optimal number of day 1 Candidates.

Arky and Yakman then both change to jeray, putting him two up, and Alynkio changes to Bro thereby tying Arky and Bro for second, with Jeray being one above those two.

But fine. Why not someone else?

UNVOTE JERAY

VOTE BROVAHKIIN

Day 3 he makes this which looks like a big case, but in actuality just boils down to voting me for thinking my case on Xarkan is bad, and I admit it wasn't the best of cases, and primarily that he wants to vote me as I had got no attention so far.

Lol!



Guess there's probably not an Arky-Xark pack. This is a missed opportunity.

Crazy Vote-Switching Day 1's are a lot of fun! I regret not being able to continue the madness due to work . Sometimes you'll be surprised at what you can learn from them after the fact too. Brovahkiin, Arky, and Xarkan all got a bit of attention even if Brovahkiin got hunted.

Admittedly some of Hax's switches here seem pointless, but this doesn't really seem like a reason to murder him.

Agreed. Both gentlemen are capable of more.

TIE breaking is a spot-light grabbing act. Killing Yvanoff for doing it is to reward cowardice and punish bravery. If Xarkan turns out to be evil, I might revisit this stance. Minor goodie points to Yvanoff.

Also fun trivia -- every player got a vote at least briefly -- except Wagon and Dedonus.



Ramius is usually only this lazy as a villager. His wolf tell is... you know... actually trying. Crazy activity isn't necessarily wolfish at all. We need Euro to come back and teach this.

These quibbles aside, I'm mostly in agreement here -- especially the part about bringing up new candidates.

The cases today seem to be "Hax seems drunk" "Arky and Xarkan failed to die properly yesterday" and "Ramius is lazy."

Meanwhile, Wagon just seems to be going with the flow and trying to direct us into tying Xarkan without a real case (who many surviving players have already taken moderately high profile votes against) to Ramius the super-easy lynch. In the meantime literally no one has voted Wagon. Let me be the first.


VOTE WAGONLITZ

He then makes a votecount.

Yep. With a 3-way.

Αρκασας: 3
Xarkan
Esemesas
Caillean

Xarkan: 3
Aedan
Ramius
Wagon

Wagon: 3
Alynkio
Hax
Beartjah

Randy: 1
Dedonus

Yvanoff: 1
Yakman

Hax: 1
Randy

Dedonus: 1
Yvanoff

Ramius: 1
Αρκασας​

An lastly he breaks the threeway minutes to deadline, which doesn't really mean too much as both goodies and baddies would do that.

Fine. I shall break it if no one else will.

UNVOTE WAGON

VOTE XARKAN

Alynkio also only has been votes two times in total, once during day 1 and once during day 2, both votes changing to somebody else later in the day. Hence he's not really had any pressure what so ever and looks like he's been flying quite low, but trying to appear more active than he has been.

Completely random vote, the very first vote of the game.

Really ? Well, that's 2 possible setups remaining out of 5.

So that's either us against 4 Waffles or us with the help of a Seer, but against 4 Waffles and one ally. Not ideal this

I blame alynkio


Vote alynkio

And here's Ese trying to probe Alynkio, but nothing really happened and he later switched away again.

I don't think there would've been people, baddies or otherwise, stupid enough to make that tie, but I've underestimated human stupidity before. How about we compromise and probe that feeling from the other side?

Vote alynkio

So yeah, I think Alynkio is worth taking a closer look at.
Vote Alynkio

 

[randakar]

I trust you're referring to @Yakman ?

.. obviously..

How did the TIE risk fall gelb? The entire point in having a TIE yesterday was to not get in trouble in case it was gelb.
You're not making sense here, Randy.

Wait. Did I misunderstand this? As I understood it if we had tied two villagers yesterday the wolves would have been able to win today due to being able to contact the warlock. That we hung the warlock kinda threw a wrench into things.

But I haven't kept track of the player count, so was it that still two days away? Because then I retract my statement.

 

[Wagonlitz]

Wait. Did I misunderstand this? As I understood it if we had tied two villagers yesterday the wolves would have been able to win today due to being able to contact the warlock. That we hung the warlock kinda threw a wrench into things.

They would have been able to do that today, yes. Though, if we hung a single villager, i.e. no TIE, just a single villager hanging, they also would have been able to do it.
We're 11 man standing. Had we not TIEd last night we'd have been 12 man standing, meaning that the lynch of a villager still would have led to parity.
It's no different to normal games where we also want to tie as last as possible, but not on a day where parity can be obtained.

 

[randakar]

Day 1

Spoiler

Jeray: 6
Beartjah[42]
Esemesas[55 Yakman -> 79 Arkasas -> 86]
Arkasas[46 Yakman -> 68 Jeray -> 89]
Xarkan[93 Arkasas -> 105]
Yvanoff[38 Alynkio -> 74 Brovahkiin -> 95 Xarkan -> 125]
Hax[41 Yvanoff -> 61 Brovah -> 78 Hax -> 83 Ramius -> 87 Esemesas -> 98 Arkasas -> 117 Jeray -> 122 aedan -> 124 randakar -> 126 Caillean -> 127 Xarkan -> 128 Yakman -> 129]

Xarkan: 3
Dedonus[43]
Yakman[44 Beartjah -> 69 jeray -> 76 Brovahkiin -> 94]
Wagonlitz[60 Arkasas -> 96]

Brovahkiin: 1
Alynkio[66 Jeray -> 72]

Arkasas: 1
aedan[49]

Yakman: 1
Ramius[81 Esemesas -> 82]

Esemesas: 1
Brovahkiin[39 Hax -> 85 Arkasas -> 90]

Randakar: 1
Caillean[106]

Caillean: 1
Randakar[109]

Not Voted: 1
jeray2000

Day 2

Spoiler

Arkasas: 4
Xarkan[140]
Esemesas[153 Alynkio -> 162]
Caillean[184]
Hax[159 Beartjah -> 188 Wagonlitz -> 203]

Xarkan: 4
aedan[176]
ramius[177]
Wagonlitz[147 Hax -> 182]
Alynkio[186 Wagonlitz -> 202]

Hax: 1
Randakar[144]

Yvanoff: 1
Yakman[141]

Dedonus: 1
Yvanoff[150]

Randakar: 1
Dedonus[160]

Ramius: 1
Arkasas[173 Xarkan -> 180]

Wagonlitz: 1
Beartjah[179 Ramius -> 190]

Ok. If I look at day two, only two non-villager unknowns are voting arky: Hax, and Esemesas. Assuming there was no contact with the warlock and that the wolves spread out their votes at least one of them is evil.
Given that Hax seems too crazy to be a wolf, Esemesas is the most suspicious.

Unvote Wagonlitz
Vote Esemesas

 

[Wagonlitz]

Ok. If I look at day two, only two non-villager unknowns are voting arky: Hax, and Esemesas. Assuming there was no contact with the warlock and that the wolves spread out their votes at least one of them is evil.
Given that Hax seems too crazy to be a wolf, Esemesas is the most suspicious.

Unvote Wagonlitz
Vote Esemesas

Given the warlock can't scan there wouldn't have been any contact unless either warlock/wolves randomly PMd people and got lucky.

Also your logic is flawed, to not say bad. How is one of Hax/Ese a baddie? The wolves wouldn't know Arky, like you say, but why would that mean that they'd have one vote on him? Wolf votes aren't distributed in unison, but to a large extent fall at random, especially if there isn't a wolf in the running.

 

[Wagonlitz]

Ok. If I look at day two, only two non-villager unknowns are voting arky: Hax, and Esemesas. Assuming there was no contact with the warlock and that the wolves spread out their votes at least one of them is evil.
Given that Hax seems too crazy to be a wolf, Esemesas is the most suspicious.

Unvote Wagonlitz
Vote Esemesas

Also what do you think of Alynkio?

 

[esemesas]

What's everyone's opinion on Yakman? I mean he is who he is, but this game he's been all roleplay and no substance.

Vote Yakman

 

[Wagonlitz]

What's everyone's opinion on Yakman? I mean he is who he is, but this game he's been all roleplay and no substance.

Vote Yakman

I think it's Yakman being typical Yakman. As in just being like he normally is. I.e. weird, not making much sense, and pulling weird accusations from a hat.
He most often is a goodie when he's run up for doing it and hence I'm semi against him being run up, since I don't consider him the most likely baddie. And as weird as he is he has a track record of being like that as a goodie.



What do you think of Alynkio?

 

[Yakman]

i think esemesas, while possibly a WITCH is not so clearly in the grips of VILE CHAOS as @Yvanoff .

What's everyone's opinion on Yakman? I mean he is who he is, but this game he's been all roleplay and no substance.

Vote Yakman

seriously? you don't see @Yvanoff and @alynkio coordinating their votes? like... it's blatant wolfsign.

and going for the easy yak lynch is WEAK PLAY @esemesas . are you on their side?