Wait, deadline isn't for another hour, panicked over nothing, geez.
Unvote Yvanoff
Vote Aedan
Unvote Yvanoff
Vote Aedan
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Lol. Anyway, I'm off to bed. I still think aedan is the better candidate, just whatever you guys do don't play with ties...
Yvanoff posted the last PM at the end of the previous page. Does this satisfy your curiosity?
This is just ridiculous. I'd have nothing to gain from trying to save Alynkio if I was his packmate and believed he had been scanned and Wagonlitz was trying to lynch him as a result. The best case scenario is that I get an alternative candidate over Alynkio, but then Wagon would just out Alynkio, which is exactly what happened. As a wolf you never have anything to gain by trying to save a scanned packmate. It puts a target on your back and you can't succeed (unless parity is one mislynch away, but in this case it wasn't). Trying to save Alynkio as a wolf would've gained me nothing, and I'm not so narcissistic to think that I could avoid the noose without issue when I push up the main alternative candidate to a known wolf. As a wolf the best thing I could've done is either follow along with Wagon and say afterwards I figured out his intention because it was out of character for him, or just go after another candidate, but keep quiet on the Alynkio business. Going actively against the Alynkio lynch as I did put a massive target on me, couldn't have saved Alynkio even for a day, and gives no benefit for the wolves.
You say you don't beleive I'm dumb, but only an idiot would've done what I did if they were a wolf with Alynkio. It had no chance of success and only put me in danger.
I'm almost entirely certain you're a wolf because your actions overwhelming fit with those of a wolf and you have lied and contorted the case against me in an attempt to leave me holding the bag for your crimes. Your actions are completely inconsistent with those of a villager, unlike my own, and you've had to manufacture a tale to explain things in a way in which we somehow did the same things.
Even before I did a thing in thread to point you as a wolf, you were already telling Wagon in the PM you posted that I would be trying to "divert" attention to you. If either one of us jumped to conclusions about assuming the identity of the other, it is you.
One question to you, do you believe that at least one of Yvanoff or aedan is a wolf?
I believe that there is a high chance that one is, but I don't want to risk a tie to confirm as such. A tie will lose the village the game if, somehow, both are not wolves.
I generally agree with this, but I feel that you're potentially leaning the wrong way on Beartjah and Ramius/Alxeu. Beartjah being the fourth on Alynkio is not a point in his favor when Alynkio was already in the lead and Wagonlitz's crusade against Alynkio on a weak case would've indicated to the wolves that Alynkio was scanned. It would be exactly like a wolf in that situation to jump on a doomed packmate for easy goodie points.
For Ramius, while I generally leaned that way when he was the role, but since Alxeu subbed in, I've been leaning heavily towards him being a wolf. He subbed in with about an hour to deadline and jumped on the lead candidate who was way ahead of the others, which just so happened to be wolf Alynkio. Could easily be a wolf who saw a doomed packmate and piled on. A villager I think would've been more suspicious of jumping on a runaway wagon. Then Alxeu switched to Randy once my case gained steam, potentially an attempt to protect his packmate Alynkio now that it seemed possible. And today he's been heavily on the Yvanoff-Beartjah train of blaming me for everything yesterday.
You are right, however, I think the chance that at least one of them is a wolf is so high that I would risk a TIE.
True but it's just shallow analysis. Don't put too much weight on it.
Yes I forgot that ramius had been subbed out for alxeu, and I agree that he is acting a bit strange.
I'm here. Reading up even. Though still a bunch behind.
To all you nay-sayers: In my defense, I will say that the case all of you appear to be thinking is bollocks, was the best I could do at the time.
It works surprisingly often to simply look at the vote distribution and pick an unknown from a set of voters voting on a villager. For the simple reason that if the wolves can steer the vote and push up a villager they will do so, and that means that front runners that ended up being villagers have very good odds to contain at least one wolf vote.
And to reiterate: You may think that's "weak" but that strategy has a track record. A good one.
To all you nay-sayers: In my defense, I will say that the case all of you appear to be thinking is bollocks, was the best I could do at the time.
It works surprisingly often to simply look at the vote distribution and pick an unknown from a set of voters voting on a villager. For the simple reason that if the wolves can steer the vote and push up a villager they will do so, and that means that front runners that ended up being villagers have very good odds to contain at least one wolf vote.
And to reiterate: You may think that's "weak" but that strategy has a track record. A good one.
Regarding Yvanoff: Typical villager behaviour. I've done that, I'm not going to fault anyone else for doing it either. Wagon felt like JL even before I got to the "outing" part, and I assume anyone smart enough to read between the lines is going to pick up on that, especially wolves.
@alxeu, the Yvanoff PMs and him indirectly trying to save alynkio yesterday weights more on my wolfdar than aedan's case on randy. In other words, I would rather lynch Yvanoff over aedan, but I wouldn't mind going for a TIE.
Vote Aedan
From what I gather about the game it's him or Yvanoff, and I'm not voting Yvanoff for the reasons outlined above.
From what I gather about the game it's him or Yvanoff, and I'm not voting Yvanoff for the reasons outlined above.
And what I'm saying is that his bad cases were a result of his inactivity.
And going by huntanalysis would just be madness. The wolves can easily place a werid hunt to screw with huntanalyis, and even if they don't you would need to be a psychic to get anything useful from that.
Looking around in other games you've played you seem to be laying low unless you or a packmate is pressured. Might be looking at too few games though
That's not what I said though. He made fairly late voteswitch to actively prevent a tie from going through. He dind't avoid making an "unnecesary tie", he actively broke it when he could've just sat back and done nothing hoping the village was stupid enough to go through with it without getting any sort of flak for it.
Don't think a tie is a good idea. If we're wrong about either of them there could a snipe.
edit: and with both goign after each other like this I somewhat doubt the both of them are wolves
And if there is a snipe we get another day to kill the snipe voter.
I oppose a TIE. I don't think Yvanoff is bad, but I do think aedan is bad. You have to recall, aedan was still there pushing the randy case as people were switching. It wasn't like he just left while all that was going down, and everyone swapped to his case without his prodding. He could've influenced the switch for a save as much as Yvanoff had.
What is Yvanoff's typical villager behavior? What I see is a illogical wolf who is just digging deeper and deeper with the lies.
I don't know about Yvanoff specifically, but it sounds like something I might have done in that situation as a villager. Because I have, in fact, in the past.