Right, that was less than optimal. It’s ben awhile, but weren’t we supponera to avoid a Tie day 1? Today i am goding to go for someone who ceratet the reallöner wide tise. I hate the swedish spellchecker… back to business. Vote um?
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I miss my keyboard and areal computer. Btw did i sak how much i hate the swedish autocorrect on my Phoenix the Tyringe to whiteboarden english?
The Phoenix!? Lol, well that was Algots Fanny.
The Phoenix!? Lol, well that was Algots Fanny.
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Interesting movement around deadline which I'm sure is going to be over analyzed over the course of day 2. A tie for the sake of tieing; Ark must be pleased all hail the Cult of the Tie.
Some basic observations:
Wagon seems to be engaged which has me leaning towards goodie for now. Randy made a few posts without saying anything don't really want to read into that quite yet. Wombat made a choice more or less condemning Yvanoff I understand the reasoning, he typically doesn't like lynching newbies early and Yvanoff was practically a no show. By the time I saw he voted it was pretty much at deadline and I didn't want to cause a tie as I stated earlier, leaving Euro to do it anyways. Which to point out the obvious will be likely a point of contention over the next day. Lastly, HDK is also engaging which is uncharted territory for me. Not sure what to make of it yet.
A few posts to look at after I did a quick read through day 1:
God help me! I'm actually leaning strong villager on Yakman.
Panzer appearing to be genuine here? Everyone else seems to be able to read Panzer other than me and for some reason this just seems off. Not sure if this is a real observation or if it just some rationalization to go after what appeared to be an easy target.
What the hell does this actually mean?
Putting pressure on Dedonus didn't seem to really amount to anything, his overall usefulness to the village and the GM usually saves him in the early game. He's a hard read and I guess I was hoping for too much from a way too early in the day pressure.
I'm going to wait to see what is actually said about the impending case(s) against Euro before really weighing in.
I'm going to cast some shade on those who were quiet day 1. Alxeu was active but said little, Cailean as well though this is out of the norm for either of them, but I think it's worth putting either or both under some pressure. Johho posted little can't remember much about him and didn't seem to attract much attention. Liefwarrior made a single post and didn't contribute much as did Ironhide and Nepechri. Eternaly_Lost well seemed to be eternally lost in the shuffle.
I'm going to vote someone who said little and wasn't under any pressure.
Vote Eternaly_Lost
Some basic observations:
Wagon seems to be engaged which has me leaning towards goodie for now. Randy made a few posts without saying anything don't really want to read into that quite yet. Wombat made a choice more or less condemning Yvanoff I understand the reasoning, he typically doesn't like lynching newbies early and Yvanoff was practically a no show. By the time I saw he voted it was pretty much at deadline and I didn't want to cause a tie as I stated earlier, leaving Euro to do it anyways. Which to point out the obvious will be likely a point of contention over the next day. Lastly, HDK is also engaging which is uncharted territory for me. Not sure what to make of it yet.
A few posts to look at after I did a quick read through day 1:
God help me! I'm actually leaning strong villager on Yakman.
Panzer appearing to be genuine here? Everyone else seems to be able to read Panzer other than me and for some reason this just seems off. Not sure if this is a real observation or if it just some rationalization to go after what appeared to be an easy target.
What the hell does this actually mean?
Putting pressure on Dedonus didn't seem to really amount to anything, his overall usefulness to the village and the GM usually saves him in the early game. He's a hard read and I guess I was hoping for too much from a way too early in the day pressure.
I'm going to wait to see what is actually said about the impending case(s) against Euro before really weighing in.
I'm going to cast some shade on those who were quiet day 1. Alxeu was active but said little, Cailean as well though this is out of the norm for either of them, but I think it's worth putting either or both under some pressure. Johho posted little can't remember much about him and didn't seem to attract much attention. Liefwarrior made a single post and didn't contribute much as did Ironhide and Nepechri. Eternaly_Lost well seemed to be eternally lost in the shuffle.
I'm going to vote someone who said little and wasn't under any pressure.
Vote Eternaly_Lost
That's not an accurate description of what happened.
At the time Culann swapped their vote [post 203], I was in the lead with 5 votes, with Panzer in 2nd with 4 votes. So they only created a two-way tie.
After that, Wombat moved their vote from me to you [post 205], dropping me down to 3 votes, with Panzer now in the lead.
Wagonlitz, in fact, was the player to made the 4-way tie [post 214] in the vote count you quoted in your post. And by this logic, we should be going after Panzer again because he was the next person to vote [post 234], where his vote on the_hdk expanded the tie to 5 (me, panzer, yvanoff, chilldude, and the_hdk). Since Panzer was a top candidate yesterday, it might not be the best idea to run him up again, but this is something to keep in mind.
Doors are closing in around the wolves, already very little space for them to go. Tick tock
This appears to be a game where most/many villagers will have relatively powerful traits. I have some also. We want to avoid ties early to give more people time to use these as the game goes on.
It also raises balance questions.
Is there a seer and priest? There may not be
Perhaps there is only one pack
What else could the wolves have to counter balance these traits - perhaps a lot of their own, but generally more traits would favour the good guys. Maybe there are a ton of brutals etc
Will need to wait until we have a dead wolf or go to get a further idea
No more ties. Deadline is in the dead of night for me so I can’t guarantee being online then, but we need some good villagers to volunteer to see this through. However we also need votes to be meaningful so we should in most cases be lynching someone who is already in the mix
This appears to be a game where most/many villagers will have relatively powerful traits. I have some also. We want to avoid ties early to give more people time to use these as the game goes on.
It also raises balance questions.
Is there a seer and priest? There may not be
Perhaps there is only one pack
What else could the wolves have to counter balance these traits - perhaps a lot of their own, but generally more traits would favour the good guys. Maybe there are a ton of brutals etc
Will need to wait until we have a dead wolf or go to get a further idea
No more ties. Deadline is in the dead of night for me so I can’t guarantee being online then, but we need some good villagers to volunteer to see this through. However we also need votes to be meaningful so we should in most cases be lynching someone who is already in the mix
Is no one going to mention joho speaking in tongues up there?
(serious post coming up next)
(serious post coming up next)
Alright, so yesterday was less than ideal. Given the number of players involved in the tie, I’d bet we’ll find at least 1 baddie in there. (Though obviously yours truly is a goodie.)
Euro’s move at the end there was pretty suspicious, so I’m feeling less positive about him than I was yesterday. Other than that, I won’t really have time today to thoroughly analyze vote movements, so without a better candidate I propose we
vote Euro
Euro’s move at the end there was pretty suspicious, so I’m feeling less positive about him than I was yesterday. Other than that, I won’t really have time today to thoroughly analyze vote movements, so without a better candidate I propose we
vote Euro
If we assume 25% of the players for one pack, that means about 6 wolves, and if we look at something like 33% for two packs with them split, that means two packs of 4. We are sort of right on the edge of what I would consider to be enough players to do two packs, but I suspect we more likely looking at one pack of four or five wolves + Cultist and/or Sorcerer.
Having a slighter larger single pack would then mean that they could more easily handle more traits as they wouldn't be hunting each other.
Yes this is my fear. Until/if we see two different packs we probably need to work on this assumption in terms of avoiding parity. Also possible they may have hit a cursed tonight.
Of course it’s not something to worry too much about right now but if we have a couple of big ties in the next few days we could throw the game.
Is there any reason to go for a Day 1 tie? This is a genuine question, haven't played enough werewolf (both recently and ever) to know if its considered a meta move or not. Is it an attempt to secure as much information as possible by revealing two players early on? Perhaps it operates on the presumption that in a two-horse race wolves will manipulate the vote to protect their own, and a late switch to a tie will reveal this? The deadline is relatively early in the morning for me, so I'm not active in the latter part of the day when people seem to disgorge content which can be responded to. I imagine that flow of information is also easier to decode when viewing it live, rather than trying to engage with the whole thing all at once.
I think Yakman's argument for chilldude being a villager was relatively obvious - a more engaging role means a more engaged newbie. Not sure why that wasn't evident to MAW. I do think it is especially disappointing that we didn't manage to get any chatter out of the leading candidates yesterday, thought that was the whole reason for putting them on the edge of the abyss. Johho's ramblings are... interesting, but more significant I feel is the willingness of Yakman to jump straight onboard without offering anything of their own.
Unless someone can explain to me why a villager would want to make a tie on Day 1 (or is this just one of those EURO eccentricities I hear so much about), I'm going to leave Yak as a secondary candidate and instead:
vote EURO
I think Yakman's argument for chilldude being a villager was relatively obvious - a more engaging role means a more engaged newbie. Not sure why that wasn't evident to MAW. I do think it is especially disappointing that we didn't manage to get any chatter out of the leading candidates yesterday, thought that was the whole reason for putting them on the edge of the abyss. Johho's ramblings are... interesting, but more significant I feel is the willingness of Yakman to jump straight onboard without offering anything of their own.
Unless someone can explain to me why a villager would want to make a tie on Day 1 (or is this just one of those EURO eccentricities I hear so much about), I'm going to leave Yak as a secondary candidate and instead:
vote EURO
Yeah, making a tie that killed two villagers at the very end of the round is suspicious. I'll vote EURO for now.
So, a couple points re: Chilldude/Vyanoff...
1) I wasn't sure what time deadline was, and my first vote to lynch chilldude was genuine, based on my read (which was obviously wrong).
2) I reconsidered my logic around Around 10 minutes to second deadline, I (along with one other person, not EURO) was told by a third party that chilldude "might be a zombie, but was also a villager." I accordingly switched off chilldude and onto Yvanoff. Yvanoff came on late, and his defense was not particularly compelling, so a voteswitch was impossible.
The upshot is that people really need to defend themselves - or at least defend themselves more than 2 minutes before deadline - if they want to live. Grumble grumble...
I'd be shocked if this is a 1 pack game, but that's a topic for another time. Will sleep on this and do some analysis in the morning.
For what it's worth, any situation that's looking like a village loss in a one pack game is already a village loss in a two pack game, imo.
We aren't hurt by assuming the situation where more baddies exist (33% with two packs as opposed to 25% with one), as a situation with 13 players left and no dead baddies is arguably worse in the two pack game, as the numbers could already be lost.
I'd also like to use now to apologize for my inactivity during deadlines both yesterday and going forward. I am employed in such a way that I am forced to be absent for the three hours prior to deadline on Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Quite literally, I get my first work break at deadline.
So please forgive me for yesterday and today. I will definitely try to be on for deadline on my days off, at least?
I'll try to get something resembling cognitive analysis in the morning, though I will be generally busy tomorrow between work and other plans.
We aren't hurt by assuming the situation where more baddies exist (33% with two packs as opposed to 25% with one), as a situation with 13 players left and no dead baddies is arguably worse in the two pack game, as the numbers could already be lost.
I'd also like to use now to apologize for my inactivity during deadlines both yesterday and going forward. I am employed in such a way that I am forced to be absent for the three hours prior to deadline on Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Quite literally, I get my first work break at deadline.
So please forgive me for yesterday and today. I will definitely try to be on for deadline on my days off, at least?
I'll try to get something resembling cognitive analysis in the morning, though I will be generally busy tomorrow between work and other plans.
Ok, still think really big ties are bad and Will try to find someone who caused that to vote for.
unvote Culann
Don't worry about not being around for deadlines, @alxeu.
I won't be around for most of them either, small kids in the house that wake you up early means that you can't really afford to stay up for a 1 am deadline.
I won't be around for most of them either, small kids in the house that wake you up early means that you can't really afford to stay up for a 1 am deadline.
Heavy migraine this morning but I am now functional enough to at least make a few small remarks.
1) I can confirm what Team wombat said. Said party contacted me as well, though I wasn't online for it. I'm guessing this person is the van Helsing, since no other scan specifically reveals "villager".
2) I will agree with any vote on people who made the tie really big yesterday - any tie bigger than 3 really gives the wolves plenty of space to manipulate their own team mates out of it, and is therefore suspect. (Though too much of a headache to read back and name them)
3) I personally believe Euro did not lie about that scan of his on Aedan yesterday. Regardless of his role, he doesn't lie usually and honestly lying about scans is a really bad idea even if you're evil, as it will come out when that scan target dies.
4) I firmly believe people who act against the interest of the village should be lynched. Making day 1 ties are part of that, as the frontrunners on the first day are very often good.
5) The previous two points do put me in a conundrum. Point 4 dictates we should lynch Euro, but that piece of useful information is kind of the opposite. Plus, lynching inactives early is a good thing in my book since even if they get replaced they will miss votes and in general not generate a ton of useful information.
1) I can confirm what Team wombat said. Said party contacted me as well, though I wasn't online for it. I'm guessing this person is the van Helsing, since no other scan specifically reveals "villager".
2) I will agree with any vote on people who made the tie really big yesterday - any tie bigger than 3 really gives the wolves plenty of space to manipulate their own team mates out of it, and is therefore suspect. (Though too much of a headache to read back and name them)
3) I personally believe Euro did not lie about that scan of his on Aedan yesterday. Regardless of his role, he doesn't lie usually and honestly lying about scans is a really bad idea even if you're evil, as it will come out when that scan target dies.
4) I firmly believe people who act against the interest of the village should be lynched. Making day 1 ties are part of that, as the frontrunners on the first day are very often good.
5) The previous two points do put me in a conundrum. Point 4 dictates we should lynch Euro, but that piece of useful information is kind of the opposite. Plus, lynching inactives early is a good thing in my book since even if they get replaced they will miss votes and in general not generate a ton of useful information.
Vote johho
it may be my last chance ever to do it! Feeling nostalgic. Don’t have any good glengarry leads right now
it may be my last chance ever to do it! Feeling nostalgic. Don’t have any good glengarry leads right now