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Tinto Talks #17 - 19th of June 2024

Welcome everyone to the 17th Tinto Talks, in this Happy Wednesday, we will give you further information about the most secret game you could ever think of, the one with the codename Project Caesar.

Today we will delve into the depths and mechanics of how the population system of the game actually works.

As a recap, we have 6 different social classes, with Nobles, Clergy & Burghers viewed as upper class, while Peasants, Tribesmen & Slaves make up the other three. Every location has a population, and each combination of social class, culture and religion creates a unique “pop” in the game. That Pop may contain 1 person, or 250 Million, but it is still referred to as a “pop”.


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Design copied from an old game I made a decade or two ago… UI is a bit placeholdery, but i like the browsing capabilities..


Population Capacity
Each location has a population capacity which depends on quite a lot of factors. The core of it is vegetation, topography and climate, while the amount of buildings and development increases it as well. If your population is higher than its current capacity, then there is a very large impact on its migration attraction and population growth.

While there are no restrictions on how many peasants, slaves or tribesmen there can be in a single location, the amount of upper class pops there can be is limited, and depends on what infrastructure there exists for that type of pop. Of course, if their estates have money, they tend to want to construct buildings that increase how many they are to further increase their power in the country.

There are reasons why you want upper class pops, and not just always creating an egalitarian “all are peasants” society, and that is when the capital economy developing during this era depends heavily on burghers, so you want to have a fair amount of those. You also want clergy of your national religion as they will help with stability, and having nobles of proper culture will help with your diplomacy and warfare.


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Having levies raised from a specific class, reduces the maximum population there can be for that certain class.


Promotion & Demotion
If there can be more pops of a certain social class, pops will promote to become that class over time. While there is a base value, promoting to some classes like nobles will just be a fraction of that each month. If you wish to speed this up in your country, you can use a cabinet member to increase it. There are many factors that impact how quickly pops can be promoted, some are affecting your entire country, some others are more local, like during Devastation or a Lack of Control. Demotion happens when you have pops over your capacity, and will happen much, much quicker than promotion.

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16 peasants will be promoted every month to become what is needed in Kalmar...


Population Growth
Only peasants and tribesmen grow organically on their own, but all types of pops can die off from negative growth.

Overpopulation, Lack of food, War exhaustion and Devastation have a significant negative impact on population growth, while having access to free land & lots of food increases the growth.

Not to forget, the population can die directly from diseases and warfare as well.

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Peaceful and nice, the population should grow nicely here…


Assimilation
Assimilation is a very slow process, and pops will assimilate to the primary culture in core locations if they belong to a culture that your country does not appreciate. Societal Values and Lack of Control have a significant impact on this, but there are buildings and other things that can impact it. In most majorly populated areas the natural growth of pops will outpace the assimilation. However, there is a cabinet action where you can increase assimilation in a specific province.

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Sadly this is a slow process in this location, 3 pops will assimilate next month..

Conversion
Converting pops works similarly to assimilation, but there are two major differences. First of all, there are mechanics and systems that sometimes change the religion of pops from what your country may desire. Secondly, there is normally no conversion, but you have to actively enforce religious conversion in a province by using a cabinet. The amount of the population that convert each month depends on what type of buildings you may have, your societal values, laws you can enact, or the privileges given to the clergy. If your clergy is very powerful as well, conversion is quicker.

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103,26% of 0 base conversion is still going to be 0 pops.

Migration
There are several ways for pops to migrate, multiple ones regarding the colonization aspect of the game will be talked about in a later Tinto Talks. There is also content that does migration, where events, disasters or other scripted content will set up specific migration from one place to another.

However, there is also a natural migration mechanic, where the population will move between locations. Pops will move away from locations that have a negative migration attraction, and will go to one with higher migration attraction in the same market. Upper class pops are usually allowed to migrate, while not many countries allow their peasants to move freely.

As for other things, you can use your cabinet to control this, where you can have one member of the cabinet leading an effort to expel people from one province, severely reducing their migration attraction, while another one could attract people to another province. You can also construct buildings in lowly populated locations to attract pops to move there.

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The price of stone in Kalmar is not inviting, but it's calm and plenty of land is available..


Literacy
Each pop keeps track of its own literacy as well, and there are buildings, advances, laws and other things that impact how quickly it can grow and how high it can be. The average literacy of a country has an impact on the research speed of that country, and the literacy of a pop has some impact on its satisfaction. However, there is also an immediate impact on the location of the average literacy of all of the same social class. Amongst other things, the average literacy of the nobles in a location has an impact on how quickly control can increase there, and the average literacy of slaves in a location increases the unrest of the location.

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Literate Burghers will definitely make you richer over the long term..


Population Needs
Each pop has its own needs for goods, and if they can’t get all of those goods, their satisfaction will be lower. The goods that a pop requires depend on their social class, their culture, their religion and where they live. They also may start caring about goods when they know about them, as the demand for tobacco will only appear in Europe when the pops actually know about it. Obviously people in colder climates want more lumber or coal, while a Jain pop is not wanting any fur at all.

pop_needs.png

I am not entirely sure why these burghers want mercury…

Satisfaction
The population needs impact their satisfaction in two ways. If they can't get the goods that they want, it's a penalty to their satisfaction. However, the prices of the goods also affect their satisfaction, as if the prices are high, then satisfaction drops, but if you can get the goods they require cheaper in the market they live in, their satisfaction will increase, but their literacy impacts how much they understand the price impact though.

Satisfaction also depends heavily on the status of their culture in the country, the religion they belong to, and how satisfied their estate currently is. There are other ways to make pops more satisfied like certain buildings, or the good old method of stationing armies.

Pops with low satisfaction will join and start supporting a rebel faction.


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Of course, these poor pops lack one of the most important things in life.

Even though pops may not be upset enough to rebel, their satisfaction has other impacts, as the average satisfaction of all pops in a location has an impact on prosperity and control.


average_satisfaction.png

Here even the paradox maths check out!


Stick around, as next week we’ll be talking a bit about laws!
 

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I was just wondering, will wars be as static as in EU4 for example - there, due to fort zones of control and so on, the frontline barely moves, while wars were dynamic in this time period, especially wars like the Thirty Years' War, the Italian Wars and the Hundred Years' War. Furthermore, will the outcome of battles and wars be as predictable - many times in history, a much smaller and less ell-equiped force has defeated a much more powerful host.
 
Nice work on the pop leger.
 
The definition of Tribesmen seems to only refer to the role of tribesmen in monarchic states. That they have their own rules and parallel social systems to other pops etc.

But what do tribesmen represent in tribal states? They're hardly parallel to peasantry in a tribal jurisdiction, are they?
 
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Would buildings like brewery and blacksmith be better if they were "villages"? It is a bit strange to see 300 people working in a medieval blacksmith and brewery. You did have villages that were built around or became highlighted because they possessed people with certain useful skills. So maybe instead of having a blacksmith or a brewery you could have a "blacksmith village" and a "brewery village" who would then supply the town with the goods. I would even had "blacksmith hamlet" and a "brewery hamlet" as a previous level that adds +100. City would then just be a mega town with a strategic/important trading location.
That doesn't really make any sense, because these buildings are specifically for towns/cities and it looks like having lots of these buildings is what makes a city actually have a lot of burghers.
One building simply represents the presence of this industry in the town and not just a single actual building.
For example, London in 1380 had 1000 breweries, you obviously can't make the player build thousands of buildings in the game like that.
Also don't forget that these 300 burghers also includes women, children and the elderly (and possibly servants although they certainly wouldn't be considered burghers), so it's not like a brewery with 300 workers means that there are actually 300 master brewers in the town.
 
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"Market price of Raw Materials here" affecting Migration attraction. Isn't the market price of a good set at the market level? With market access simply deciding which locations gets first dibs?

Meaning that this modifier is the same for the entire market, which is the only place anyone can migrate to. What am I missing here?
The point of this modifier is probably to somewhat stabilize the market.
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For example inside the Riga market, pops would be inclined to migrate from wild game locations to sturdy grain locations, as the prices are above/below the base price respectively, thus increasing the potential output of sturdy grain (combating the deficit inside the market) while reducing the output of wild game (stabilizing/increasing the price of it).

I think it also models the impact of global trade somewhat. What I mean by this is that once a market starts to use imported cotten instead of locally produced Wool, the demand for Wool will plummed (as will the price), thus incentivising pops to migrate away from Wool locations.
 
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For example inside the Riga market, pops would be inclined to migrate from wild game locations to sturdy grain locations, as the prices are above/below the base price respectively, thus increasing the potential output of sturdy grain (combating the deficit inside the market) while reducing the output of wild game (stabilizing/increasing the price of it).
But peasants don't produce raw materials by default, you need to actually expand raw material production first.
If you have a location with 20000 peasants and it has an expensive raw material that can have 2000 peasants working on its production, immigration would change absolutely nothing about the amount of raw material produced. Only once you have all 20000 working in raw material production would it matter.

It also doesn't really work for emigration, since presumably raw material production will be filled with peasants first, so even if the raw material in this case is overproduced, you'd always have 2000 people producing it, even if the total peasant population in the location goes down to 15000.

And additionally, it was said that many countries don't even allow peasants to migrate in the first place.
 
But peasants don't produce raw materials by default, you need to actually expand raw material production first.
If you have a location with 20000 peasants and it has an expensive raw material that can have 2000 peasants working on its production, immigration would change absolutely nothing about the amount of raw material produced. Only once you have all 20000 working in raw material production would it matter.

It also doesn't really work for emigration, since presumably raw material production will be filled with peasants first, so even if the raw material in this case is overproduced, you'd always have 2000 people producing it, even if the total peasant population in the location goes down to 15000.

And additionally, it was said that many countries don't even allow peasants to migrate in the first place.
As to pesasants not producing raw materials by default: I am aware of that (thats why I worded it as potential output), my point was that the "market price migration mechanic" is likely meant to ensure that you have enough pops in locations with high raw good prices, so that you (and especially the AI) can somewhat easyly work on deficits.

Regarding countries not allowing peasants to migrate: if a country does not allow peasant-migration the entire "migration attraction" mechanic can be disregarded, no?
 
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Regarding countries not allowing peasants to migrate: if a country does not allow peasant-migration the entire "migration attraction" mechanic can be disregarded, no?
Well that's something we've been talking about, amongst other things. If Upper Class pops are entirely dependent on buildings for their existence, then having them migrate based on attraction factors like open land doesn't really make sense.
Johan hasn't commented on any of this discussion so far.
 
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Well that's something we've been talking about, amongst other things. If Upper Class pops are entirely dependent on buildings for their existence, then having them migrate based on attraction factors like open land doesn't really make sense.
Johan hasn't commented on any of this discussion so far.
Now I see the problem.
If you only need Upper Class pops to work certain buildings, having them migrate based on factors detatched from said buildings is worthless.

Having read the Promotion & Demotion part of the TT again, it seems to me, as if the intent for Upper Class pops is to demote rather than migrate, so that it takes longer to fill newly build Upper Class buildings (perhaps to prevent things like control from increasing to fast?).
Basically the reverse of how it works in Stellaris.
In Stellaris new pops "spawn" as workers but promote instantly to Specialist/Ruler pop if possible, while taking time to demote should Specialist/Ruler jobs disappear. In not-EUV pops also "spawn" as "workers" but take time to promote, while (almost) instantly demoting.

This approach (provided my assumption is correct), makes me think it would better to split migration attraction for upper and lower Classes, using the current system for lower Classes, while focusing on "available jobs" for upper Classes. (feedback on my Idea welcome)

edit: since burghers seem to be needed for the production of most "manufactured" Goods (Glas, Cloth, Cannons etc.) maybe group them up with peasants for migration attraction.
 
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Practical modding question: Can one directly add/manipulate POPs via scripting? For example could I make an event that multiplied the peasant population in say Oxford by 0.75 and made 30 Turkmen-cultured clergy appear out of thin air if I really wanted to?
 
will this game display the population source & population sink phenomena of high & low population density areas? it is almost a law of population geography that high population density decreases fertility rates, even now. I can't find good historical sources that references their methodology; I'm not a historian.(I tried to post a source but it wouldn't post)
 
will this game display the population source & population sink phenomena of high & low population density areas? it is almost a law of population geography that high population density decreases fertility rates, even now. I can't find good historical sources that references their methodology; I'm not a historian.(I tried to post a source but it wouldn't post)
The problem with that is simple: What is considered high population density?
Even in Project Caesar's timeframe, certain locations on Java probably have a very high population density, yet the island's population grew from 5 million in 1815 to 150 million now.
Other locations with lower density didn't grow much at all. How can this be unified into one system?
 
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The only thing I disagree with is Conversion having zero base speed while Assimilation has a low positive base speed.

Actually one could argue that it is expected Conversion could happen independently of State actions.

But Assimilation not so much. Both then and now.

At least the zero Conversion base speed and the low positive Assimilation speed should be inverted to a low base conversion and a null base Assimilation.

Further IMHO: ideally the Religion and the Culture a Pop converts and assimilates to should not be taken as given. The maluses and bonuses from pops, buildings, laws, etc, could determine forces of attraction in general terms instead of just speed.

For example if a protestant Netherlands conquers a location from Portugal with 2000 catholic Portuguese pops (including clergy pops) and 100 tribesmen pops from other culture and religion, if say 5 of these tribesmen abandon former culture and religion (and maybe get "civilized" and become peasants or whatever), they should convert and assimilate to catholic and Portuguese and not to protestant and Dutch. The Netherlands must actively do something to change the attraction from Portuguese/catholic to Dutch/protestant.

I didn't read yet the other 30 page of comments to see if more people share the same opinions.
 
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Will a single province be able to produce several resources (wool, wheat, lumber, clay, etc.) as in Victoria 3, or will it be limited to one resource as in Victoria 2 ? I'm afraid the Vic 2 option will lead to a shortage of everything unless you play a large country (actually the main problem of Vic 2).
 
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The only thing I disagree with is Conversion having zero base speed while Assimilation has a low positive base speed.

Actually one could argue that it is expected Conversion could happen independently of State actions.

But Assimilation not so much. Both then and now.

At least the zero Conversion base speed and the low positive Assimilation speed should be inverted to a low base conversion and a null base Assimilation.

Many polish and lithuanian Tatars polonized after few generations - but even today they keep their Muslim faith (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kruszyniany).
 
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Will a single province be able to produce several resources (wool, wheat, lumber, clay, etc.) as in Victoria 3, or will it be limited to one resource as in Victoria 2 ? I'm afraid the Vic 2 option will lead to a shortage of everything unless you play a large country (actually the main problem of Vic 2).
It was mentioned in TT9 that
We mentioned last week about different ways to get raw materials, and one way to get it, besides trade, is through a set of rural buildings. These include Lumber Mills that you can build in any wood or forest location to produce lumber, sheep farms, stone quarries, and many more.
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and in TT10 that
Some goods like clay, lumber, sand and stone are produced in every market, without the need for specific RGO’s, even if an RGO with that raw material can produce much more, and there are buildings that can be built to provide these as well.
So there are buildings for at least some raw goods (namely "construction materials" like Clay, Stone and Lumber) you can build in any Location, regardless of the Locations Good.
 
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I'm very surprised not to see the urban workers in the 'lower class'. The guilds' struggle for power against patricians was one of the major undertones of the game timeframe, including its early dates. It's not just the matter of economy and production modeling: these struggles were exploited by nobles (e.g. Cabochien revolt on the side of the Burgundian faction, and Burgundian propaganda in general), they caused long-lasting political changes (e.g. Lübeck uprising of 1408 and consequent demise of Hanseatic League) and were not generally aligned with interests of peasantry and the peasant revolts (e.g. the events leading to Van Artevelde regime). The tug of war between artisans and merchants is the topic of importance if you step outside the usual 'nobles and their conquests' discourse. As the game covers the transition from feudalism to capitalism, their omission drops a lot of interesting opportunities to simulate events organically rather than by forcing them with triggers and events.
 
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