AI Count DOW Strategy?

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Several times I've been surprised or even amazed at the DOWs that emanate from puny Counts, either my vassals or someone else's. For example, in my most recent playing session, a German Count declared war on my ruler. My realm encompasses nearly all of Scotland plus most of the northern half of Germany, along with counties in Scandinavia and Italy. I can field an army well over 100K. Such a war, if actually fought, would be ridiculously one-sided.

So I am wondering what the AI "thinks" it can accomplish? Some speculation:

1. Punishment against a perceived badboy/heretic etc

But my king was neither; reputation respectable and no obvious religious liabilities.

2. Machiavelli: the Count stays back while his liege, the King of Germany, slugs it out with my king, and the little guy swoops in at just the right time to grab something. I admit this is theoretically possible but IMHO rather unlikely. For one thing, I had just defeated the German King shortly before this.

3. Gang bang: again, theoretically possible, but my realm was not tied up in other wars at the time.

4. Desperate independence move(??): the Count drags his liege into a messy war so that he can then renounce his liege with a good chance of not getting squashed as a consequence -- at least, not right away.

Again, theoretically possible but subsequent events did not bear out this hypothesis (the Count quickly offered me a bit of money for peace and then stayed a loyal vassal of the German King).

5. Revenge?? If so, for what and to what end?

6. Randomness: the AI is programmed to DOW with a certain frequency and the target is chosen quasi-randomly; by bad luck the little German Count happened to pick a fight with a T-Rex. I don't really believe this, but I suppose it is possible.

Other theories or explanations welcome, especially those with the voice of experience behind them (this is only my 2nd game of CK, and the first only lasted about 20 years before I got wiped out).

 

[FromasterG]

I don't necessarily know about your situation, but I think it is a weakness-related decision.

I have noticed that I will get a stream of vassal war messages the instant that a nearby county declares independence from either another ruler, or one of my own vassals. I assume they are trying to take advantage of the nearby land without a protector.

I have also seen that counties and weak duchies will attack kingdoms if that kingdom is seriously losing a war. My vassals attacked the King of Scotland, and I thought they were crazy, but after I occupied the nearby province they probably wanted (Lisboa) he immediately granted me peace. I looked and saw that the King of England had occupied the rest of his demesne and immediately annexed the rest of him.

In short, a county will declare war for any neighboring, preferably isolated province that they think they can easily win. Although I cannot explain the DOW on you (aside from constantly pestering the player with popups), I think there might be a reason. Did you have a random province in their vicinity that was separated from the rest of your kingdom?

 

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Did you have a random province in their vicinity that was separated from the rest of your kingdom?

Yes, Schwyz, although they made no move to try to take it. It's a sensible explanation, though.