Early Arrival of SmallPox to the New World

[MattyG]

There have been some ideas floated recently in a couple of the threads that relate to a significant change in the New World. It is worth voting on the idea, because the changes are so potentially significant.

The key idea is that (as is considered historically accurate) ships from Mali make it to northern Brazil. There they interract with the soon-to-be-added Cacoal peoples, increasing their knowledge of seafaring and their understanding of the broader world, advancing their technology group to china (sometime after game start).

This is not the really significant issue. With the Malian immigrants come some of the Old World diseases, wreaking havoc on the peoples there. The suggestion has been made that these diseases make their way throughout the New Worlds, such that starting populations for the New World are lower, but that we remove the smallpox events, as the New World has been already decimated.

That's one significant change. The other is the premise for slavery would change. Slavery as a succesful trade commodity was predicated on alabour shortage in the new world because of the massacre of the local populations not just through warfare, but through disease. (And, also the lack of interest of peoples from Europe to be colonists).

There's also more. The EU2 premise for colonizable provinces is based on the historical effect of these New World diseases. Stripped of their populations, the mere thousands of colonists who arrived did come to dominate regions, where otherwise they would have remained greatly outnumbered. Hence the ease of turning a province of a million natives into Anglo-saxon Protestants in a matter of a decade or so.

So, if we accept that the diseases have already visited the New World, we have to seriously rethink how we handle populations, colonization and slavery.

 

[loki1232]

I must say that I really like this idea.
First a couple of questions:
1. Did all of the Mali horses die, or will we be seeing Aztec Cavalry? If south america has horses, then the north could as well (my faded vinland project).
2. Did these malians interbreed and settle down, or return to Africa? (I hope the former).
3. So is mali now going to be a colonial power in brazil? Or willthey stay confined to africa?

Well you are right that this does raise a lot of problems.
Well if they have already had smallpox, then the populations will be quite large, and it will be much tougher meat for the Europeans. Also, there's always the possibiliity that the Europeans being reunited with their old diseases will suffer as well, given that the Black death did keep reappearing in Europe much after its first and deadliest time.
The Europeans will be outnumbered, and their culture will not be easily transferred to the natives. There will not be slavery of Africans, but rather most likely slavery of both Africans and Americans. Also, there will be more penetration into the heart of Africa, since the new world will not be so easy to take.(time to remove some PTI, eh?).
I'll think on it more and post later.

 

[MattyG]

As long as I have an influence on Interregnum (and I am just one part of it, not the boss, of course) I will fight tooth and nail to NOT have the NEW World gain horses before the main arrival of Europeans in the 1500s. It
s just waaaayyyyyyy too much. It's the kind of thing that, should I be outvoted, I would leave the mod over. Not a threat, but it just takes it too far for me and all the files I have worked on (Dichali, Maya, Zapotec, Aztec and Haudenosaunee) would have to be drastially rewritten, along with all of their histories. Tooooooo much.


Now, vote, everyone, please vote!

 

[unmerged(51378)]

I agree with this idea, and I also support Matty about the horses. I don't now the basic idea of Vinland though so I might support letting them get horses but that would be about it.

 

[unmerged(16159)]

I am with this, but suspect that the diseases in South America are less likely to make it to North America, less liekly than the horses. Historically, there was very little trade or population movement between the North and the South, and many diseases which tok hold in one continent didn't take hold in another.

Stock also didn't move, as animals which thrive in Peru tend to die in Texas, etc..

So We could limit this to South America? Makes it an aberration, but not a fantasy?

 

[idont]

Instead of giving the Cacoal horses, you could give them 4 whiteman points, to simulate their exposure to foreign cultures. This way, they would not be immediately different from the other Americans, but as soon as the first Europeans arrive, they remember the old legends (actually, when did the Mali arrive?) and start using horses.

I'm not sure what you mean about colonization. In EU2 you can colonize places like Africa, Scandinavia and Siberia, places not cut of from European diseases. I think the premise of colonization has more to do with the Europeans having much bigger guns, and thus didn't have to worry that much about whether the natives wanted new neighbours. If you want to simulate bigger populations, just add some aggressive natives, and make the provinces harder to colonize.

 

[loki1232]

what are whiteman points and how do they function?

 

[idont]

what are whiteman points and how do they function?

The whiteman points count how many interactions the American had with Europeans. At the beginning of the game, they can't build ships, cavalary and get a research penalty. Once they had five interactions, the penalty disapears.
To add the bonus points, add "whiteman = 4" to the country definition.

 

[MattyG]

I'm not sure what you mean about colonization. In EU2 you can colonize places like Africa, Scandinavia and Siberia, places not cut of from European diseases. I think the premise of colonization has more to do with the Europeans having much bigger guns, and thus didn't have to worry that much about whether the natives wanted new neighbours. If you want to simulate bigger populations, just add some aggressive natives, and make the provinces harder to colonize.

The difference is that the New World was quite densely populated and mere guns would not have been enough.

In Africa there was little or no colonization in the same way. The use of colonization in EU2 in those province is to ensure 'coaling rights' and to enable access to Slaves and therefore the anabling of the slave-cotton-tobacco model they use.

 

[orimazd]

I think the premise of colonization has more to do with the Europeans having much bigger guns,

That actually didn't matter in the larger scale. Despite their guns, the Pilgrims would have all died in the first winter were it not for Tisquantum (Squanto's real name...it means "fury of the universal being," like if I introduced myself as "Wrath of God"), who actually had been all over Europe and back...also, the Pilgrims wouldn't have had any SPACE to colonize in were it not for the plagues that came through the New World shortly before they arrived--they settled in villages that had been abandoned by the previous tribes, and I suspect a lot of skeletons were turned up the first time they plowed into the ground. Cortes wouldn't have been able to conquer the Aztecs were it not for the Aztecs* making so many enemies (Motecuzoma II was very good at making people hate them)--the Castilians were mere shock troops in the Texcalan (who the Spanish called Tlaxcala, which is Nahuatl for tortilla...lol) army because of the speed their horses gave them and the sounds their guns made. They would have been butchered if they tried to take Tenochtitlan alone...even then Cortes almost died, and he was saved because one of the soldiers jumped in the way of a spear that was about to pierce Cortes.

Damn, I know way too much.

*technically, the Mexica...Aztec refers to Nahuatl speakers in general, which encompassed the area from Azatlan to around lake Texcoco--a better name for the Aztec Empire would be Triple Alliance, though of course the Mexica still were in charge of the whole thing. I do not know the history of Mexico in the Interregnum world, however.

 

[loki1232]

What year would the malian ships be arriving anyways?

 

[loki1232]

I am with this, but suspect that the diseases in South America are less likely to make it to North America, less liekly than the horses. Historically, there was very little trade or population movement between the North and the South, and many diseases which tok hold in one continent didn't take hold in another.

Stock also didn't move, as animals which thrive in Peru tend to die in Texas, etc..

So We could limit this to South America? Makes it an aberration, but not a fantasy?

nay.
I don't see how horses could be contained just in south america. The coacal are seafaring and know the maya. The maya know the zapotec. The zapotecknow the dichali. At that point the texans have horses and are about ready to go pwn the other indian tribes until thbe others get horses as well. Etc.

 

[MattyG]

What year would the malian ships be arriving anyways?

Prior to 1419 makes a lot more sense if we want to see the Cacoal be a productive empire by 1500.

After then makes for more 'fun' but also would therefore decimate the Cacoal in the 1430s-40s meaning that they will still be a weakened people two generations later, meaning that a coordinated semi-centralized and more advanced empire seems beyond plausible.

We need to make it 1419, I feel, to not push plausibility over the edge.

 

[loki1232]

So would this be reflected in events or not? I think that it would be interesting to model the spread of Horses and Old world diseases through the new world--while not at war with colonizing Europeans. Maybe automatic peace treaties among suffering nations?
Speaking of peace treaties, i think that the mayan event which gives their capital to the Zapotec should also make peace. Otherwise the war just drags on interminally.

 

[MattyG]

So would this be reflected in events or not? I think that it would be interesting to model the spread of Horses and Old world diseases through the new world--while not at war with colonizing Europeans. Maybe automatic peace treaties among suffering nations?
Speaking of peace treaties, i think that the mayan event which gives their capital to the Zapotec should also make peace. Otherwise the war just drags on interminally.

No horses. Not while I'm with the project!

Let's remember that the west coast africans and sub-saharan africans did not have horses, at least not in significant numbers. Despite thousands of years of access to them. Would the horse have taken on in Brazil and across the Andes? Are they even used there today, let alone soon after the arrival of the Europeans? Not really.

I cannot see the early Malian explorers taking horses with them, and if they did, of those horses surviving, and if they did, of them being found significantly worthwhile in the jungles and swamps and wide rivers.

There is no peace command. I would have used it if there was. It's the single biggest hole in the EU2 event writing compendium. You cannot force a peace though event. Sad but true. No doubt this feature will be in EU3 and when we adapt Interregnum for that, we can use it.

Maybe what I need to do is to have the capital move but not secede the province, so there can be a peace deal with the Maya?

 

[unmerged(31994)]

No horses. Not while I'm with the project!

Let's remember that the west coast africans and sub-saharan africans did not have horses, at least not in significant numbers. Despite thousands of years of access to them. Would the horse have taken on in Brazil and across the Andes? Are they even used there today, let alone soon after the arrival of the Europeans? Not really.

I cannot see the early Malian explorers taking horses with them, and if they did, of those horses surviving, and if they did, of them being found significantly worthwhile in the jungles and swamps and wide rivers.

I agree, and anyway, what good would horses be in the jungle? Regardless, the Mali King who sent the two expeditions to the new world sent canoes with only soldiers and supplies - no space for horses in 2000 small rafts and would be a waste I suppose.

I agree, no horses!

They have llamas!

 

[loki1232]

Allright, no horses. Yes, I think the maya event should not cede the province.

Also, was it really 2000 canoes? That's a lot. I mean now most provinces in brazil have less than 1000 people on them. If each canoe has 10 people on it (how big are these canoes?) That's enough for them to carve out their own private empireif they want to. Even if they were peaceful, they would probably demand a lot of power, and be bigshots in the coacal empire.
Also, would they have brought their religion with them? Muslims in the new world?

What if the new world was not turned into a place of colonizing, but a place of slavery? Let me explain: There are too many natives for much colonizing, so instead the whitemen simply enslave all that they can, and use them in Europe. The enslavement takes place much the same way it did in africa. Hopefully much of south america will be taken up by the Coacal, maya, and inca so that conquest will be needed to take provinces. I think that simple conquest is the best way to model "colonizing" these heavily populated american provinces.

 

[MattyG]

Allright, no horses. Yes, I think the maya event should not cede the province.

Also, was it really 2000 canoes? That's a lot. I mean now most provinces in brazil have less than 1000 people on them. If each canoe has 10 people on it (how big are these canoes?) That's enough for them to carve out their own private empireif they want to. Even if they were peaceful, they would probably demand a lot of power, and be bigshots in the coacal empire.
Also, would they have brought their religion with them? Muslims in the new world?

Remember that the population size of a province is on the size of the largest city, not of the entire province. It's a strange way of representing the province, but that's what Paradox did. Presumably it represents about 1% - 50% of the overall province population or something similar. For a place like Brazil it ought to represent very little of the overall population, but for a place like baghdad, it must surely represent about 40 - 50% of the province population.

One of the core ideas atr work here is the arrival of Islam in Brazil. The problem here is that Crio - in his redesign of Mali - brought forward the Islamisization of Mali into the 1400s, instead of in the 1300s. So, if we want Mali to take Islam there, there needs probably to be some wiggling of things. But it is my preferred option. The other aspect is that of when the diseases arrive, because they will decimate and weakened the population. In this happens in the 1300s, then they will have mostly recovered by game start. BUT, then its less fun. It's waaay richer for roleplaying if we have the Malians arrive in the 1430s and have all the events relating to disease, integrations and religion. Way more fun.

What if the new world was not turned into a place of colonizing, but a place of slavery? Let me explain: There are too many natives for much colonizing, so instead the whitemen simply enslave all that they can, and use them in Europe. The enslavement takes place much the same way it did in africa. Hopefully much of south america will be taken up by the Coacal, maya, and inca so that conquest will be needed to take provinces. I think that simple conquest is the best way to model "colonizing" these heavily populated american provinces.

I don't see slavery working in Europe. It would have not been economically viable and would have caused huge social unrest, with peasants being turfed out in favour of africans and americans. The scale of this change goes beyond the scope of Interregnum, I feel, as well as being - in my opinion - politically implausible.

As for conquest being the main tool for colonizing, it's an interesting idea, but too many of the game mechanics are build with the main model in mind. Also, the AI SUCKS at colonial conquest, never targetting the right areas nor sending enough troops and settling for cash istead of provinces.

 

[loki1232]

Remember that the population size of a province is on the size of the largest city, not of the entire province. It's a strange way of representing the province, but that's what Paradox did. Presumably it represents about 1% - 50% of the overall province population or something similar. For a place like Brazil it ought to represent very little of the overall population, but for a place like baghdad, it must surely represent about 40 - 50% of the province population.

One of the core ideas atr work here is the arrival of Islam in Brazil. The problem here is that Crio - in his redesign of Mali - brought forward the Islamisization of Mali into the 1400s, instead of in the 1300s. So, if we want Mali to take Islam there, there needs probably to be some wiggling of things. But it is my preferred option. The other aspect is that of when the diseases arrive, because they will decimate and weakened the population. In this happens in the 1300s, then they will have mostly recovered by game start. BUT, then its less fun. It's waaay richer for roleplaying if we have the Malians arrive in the 1430s and have all the events relating to disease, integrations and religion. Way more fun.

What about 1420? In 1419 mali could send an expedition, and it would arrive in 1420. Then would they send another in 1424? If so, we could be looking at mali as the VERY FIRST colonizing nation, since presumably some of the canoes will return and Mali will start colonizing brazil. They will be able to since smallpox just hit, but it will be harder for the Europeans when they arrive 70 years later.
If the Coacal are an advanced seafaring nation, then they are probably more likely to colonize the western coast of Africa instead of anything in North america.

So then what does the population of natives in an uncolonized province model?

I don't see slavery working in Europe. It would have not been economically viable and would have caused huge social unrest, with peasants being turfed out in favour of africans and americans. The scale of this change goes beyond the scope of Interregnum, I feel, as well as being - in my opinion - politically implausible.

As for conquest being the main tool for colonizing, it's an interesting idea, but too many of the game mechanics are build with the main model in mind. Also, the AI SUCKS at colonial conquest, never targetting the right areas nor sending enough troops and settling for cash istead of provinces.

So are we looking at a world without slavery? Or at least without slavery of Africans and Americans?

Also, yeah the Ai sucks.

 

[MattyG]

Ahmed writes:

"I vote for that that Mali bring deseases to south america at 1300th and
while this affects them with killing some of them - there is good news. As
mali bring only some deseases not all at one time. So when will come next round of deseases americans will be prepered at some extent and will not get all at one time. So This stepbystep desease bringing means that those societies are much more strong. But some coastline could turn as slave provs."

Matty