This is similar to another question I asked recently but bear with me please. Now I'm playing in Ireland, presently as Duke of Meath. I have a relative staged to inherit Tir Connail which is part of Connacht. Assuming I give this relative a county prior to his inheriting Tir Connail, will he remain a part of my realm or go over to Connacht? How is this situation handled generally?
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The general rule is that if a character inherits a title which moves them up a rank, they then will move to that new title. If they inherit a title the same (or lower) than they currently have, they stay and just add the new Titles. So in your example, if your relative is already a Count, they'll just add the new Count title and remain your vassal.
Be aware tho, that there is no guarantee that the new inheritance will always be there, someone new could get added ahead of him or that Count could lose their title in some way. So if the rewards are worth it, you might consider assassinating the present Count so your relative inherits now.
Not especially in this case. He will remain in your realm because as long as his primary title does not change, neither will his allegiances. And the primary title only changes on going up or down a rank.
If you make him a Count (and your vassal), and he then inherits another Count Title, as Jordarfkelf says, his Primary Title remains as that of the Title you gave him and he remains your vassal and your Duchy grows by the addition of the new County he inherits. If you don't make him your Count Vassal, and he inherits, then his Primary Title goes up one level (from a Courtier to a Count) and he becomes a Vassal of Connacht.
The same rules apply to both you and the AI, no favoritism. A Count Vassal Title of yours could just as easily be inherited out of your Duchy as a new one is inherited in.