Modelling the Alternate Reformation Effects

[MattyG]

I have begun work on the effects of the Alternative Reformation, how Europe responds to the schism that will occur at the end of Martin Luther's period as pope.

Here is the group of events for Asturias. Please rememeber that not all countries will have the event structure to ensure the ai has a 50% chance of backing either the Pope in Rome (protestant) or the alternative Pope in Bavaria (catholic). Portugal, for example, will have only one event, with action_a being to stay catholic, supporting the conservative cardinals, and action b being to stay with the reformists in Rome.

# Asturias

event = {
	id = 857001
	random = no
	country = ASU
	trigger = {
		event = 200
		NOT = { event = 857002 }
		NOT = { event = 203 }
	}
	name = "Title"
	desc = "Description"
	date = { year = 1550 }
	offset = 500
	deathdate = { year = 1600 }

	action_a = {
		name = "The Bishop of Rome leads the Church"
		command = { type = religion which = protestant }
		command = { type = domestic which = innovative value = 1 }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = -2 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 427 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 428 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 429 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 430 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 431 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 432 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 434 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 435 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 436 value = protestant }
		command = { type = stability value = -2 }
		command = { type = relation which = PAP value = 200 }
		command = { type = relation whoch = BAY value = -100 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 12 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 60 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 120 value = 1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -3 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "The Reformists have gone too far"
		command = { type = stability value = -2 }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 427 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 428 value = protestant }
		command = { type = relation which = PAP value = -200 }
		command = { type = relation whoch = BAY value = 250 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 12 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 60 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 120 value = 1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
	}
}

event = {
	id = 857002
	random = no
	country = ASU
	trigger = {
		event = 200
		NOT = { event = 857001 }
		NOT = { event = 203 }
	}
	name = "Title"
	desc = "Description"
	date = { year = 1550 }
	offset = 500
	deathdate = { year = 1600 }

	action_a = {
		name = "The Reformists have gone too far"
		command = { type = stability value = -2 }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 427 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 428 value = protestant }
		command = { type = relation which = PAP value = -200 }
		command = { type = relation whoch = BAY value = 250 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 12 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 60 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 120 value = 1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "The Bishop of Rome leads the Church"
		command = { type = religion which = protestant }
		command = { type = domestic which = innovative value = 1 }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = -2 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 427 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 428 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 429 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 430 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 431 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 432 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 434 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 435 value = protestant }
		command = { type = provincereligion which = 436 value = protestant }
		command = { type = stability value = -2 }
		command = { type = relation which = PAP value = 200 }
		command = { type = relation whoch = BAY value = -100 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = DIP which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = MIL which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = ADM which = -1 value = 60 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 12 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 60 value = 2 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 120 value = 1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -3 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -3 value = 5000 }
	}
}

event = {
	id = 857003
	random = yes
	trigger = {
		OR = {
			event = 857001
			event = 857002
		}
		NOT = { year = 1590 }
		countrysize = 2
	}
	name = "A Bishop Dissents"
	desc = "One of the bishops within our realm disagrees strongly against our choice in the schism and has ordered all priests within his see to oppose the monarch and all parishoner's to refuse to pay taxes."

	action_a = {
		name = "Arrest the bishop and replace him"
		command = { type = revolt which = -1 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 6 value = 3 }
		command = { type = stability value = -1 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "Let him preach his heresy"
		command = { type = heretic which = -3 }
		command = { type = DIP whch = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = MIL whch = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = ADM whch = -1 value = 12 }
		command = { type = ADM whch = -1 value = 24 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 24 value = 1 }
	}
}

event = {
	id = 857004
	random = yes
	trigger = {
		OR = {
			event = 857001
			event = 857002
		}
		event = 201
		NOT = { event = 203 }
		countrysize = 2
		religion = catholic
	}
	name = "An Ecclesiastical Appointment"
	desc = "The appointment of a new bishop to a vacant see will always been controversial during times of religious strife. The Pope's preference is for a man who lacks the support of the episcopal polity, either for religious or personal reasons (or both). The synod of the see demands an individual opposed by the Pope."

	action_a = {
		name = "Force the Pope's choice"
		command = { type = stability value = -1 }
		command = { type = ADM whch = -1 value = 6 }
		command = { type = relation which = BAY value = 25 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "Accept the synod choice"
		command = { type = stability value = -1 }
		command = { type = DIP whch = -1 value = 6 }
		command = { type = relation which = BAY value = -25 }
	}
}

event = {
	id = 857005
	random = yes
	trigger = {
		OR = {
			event = 857001
			event = 857002
		}
		event = 201
		NOT = { event = 203 }
		countrysize = 2
		religion = protestant
	}
	name = "An Ecclesiastical Appointment"
	desc = "The appointment of a new bishop to a vacant see will always been controversial during times of religious strife. The Pope's preference is for a man who lacks the support of the episcopal polity, either for religious or personal reasons (or both). The synod of the see demands an individual opposed by the Pope."

	action_a = {
		name = "Force the Pope's choice"
		command = { type = stability value = -1 }
		command = { type = ADM whch = -1 value = 6 }
		command = { type = relation which = PAP value = 25 }
	}
	action_b = {
		name = "Accept the synod choice"
		command = { type = stability value = -1 }
		command = { type = DIP whch = -1 value = 6 }
		command = { type = relation which = PAP value = -25 }
	}
}

event = {
	id = 857006
	random = yes
	trigger = {
		OR = {
			event = 857001
			event = 857002
		}
		event = 201
		NOT = { event = 203 }
		countrysize = 8
	}
	name = "Religious Dissent in the Colonies"
	desc = "In the distant colonies, the priests and parishoners have taken the step of ignoring the bishop and following the anti-pope."
	
	action_a = {
		name = "Terrible"
		command = { type = heretic which = -4 }
	}
}

 

[Don_Quigleone]

Cool, what does heretic mean, is it just a revolt? Any way that sounds cool, In border areas we could use a model similiar to the agceep one for modelling the reformation as well, or we could have a set of random events to account for random spread of protestantism, also should cordoba maybe have a random chance of catholic provinces turning protestant (say with a greater concentration around occitania and less near portugal) I can't think of any more ways to model the alternate reformation, although could it cause problems if bavaria is eliminated? maybe we should set a group of events for anyone that owns bavaria capital province just make sure an antipope arises, or else there could be trouble with events

 

[MattyG]

Cool, what does heretic mean, is it just a revolt? Any way that sounds cool, In border areas we could use a model similiar to the agceep one for modelling the reformation as well, or we could have a set of random events to account for random spread of protestantism, also should cordoba maybe have a random chance of catholic provinces turning protestant (say with a greater concentration around occitania and less near portugal) I can't think of any more ways to model the alternate reformation, although could it cause problems if bavaria is eliminated? maybe we should set a group of events for anyone that owns bavaria capital province just make sure an antipope arises, or else there could be trouble with events

There are some interesting points here.

I think that provinces under Islamic control will not change from Catholic to protestant. Traditionalism is important there, I would feel.

While the loss of Bavaria would compromise things, I think that there could be another fill-in conservative. There are two core conservative German states, Bavaria and Brandenburg, and as a back-up I think that Eire could be the home of conservatism. So, we need to make sure that, when Luther dies, that the Schism event includes within its triggers the existence of certain states, primarily those listed above. But I wouldn't want it to be just based on a province (unlike Rome) because this might tie someone like an already-protestant (Hussite) Bohemia, an Orthodox state or even an Islamic state. I realise this is no different from province 399, but let's keep the weird stuff to a minimum.

 

[Don_Quigleone]

True but certain states that are normally protestant (like swabia) could possibly fill in, however you are right, It would be best to put in an a group of events which would determine the seat of conservatism, which would be determined by a countries exists tag and sets a flag, with bavaria first, brandenburg second, and another country third (I'd say the teutonic order myself, Eire is too isolationist generally, in fact there's an argument in my mind for them following the pope). I think if you have an unsuccesful crusade people in spain might be suitably dissatisfied with the holy roman empire (and possibly the papacy too) heck they might even join a breakaway religious faction (like reformed ) if the old order failed them they might consider doing away with it (Many converted to protestantism due to a perceived failure of the old order, they saw corruption etc. and many conservatives went protestant) also let's not forget that staying with the pope would be perceived as staying with tradition (by some) I think that random conversion where a third to a half of them convert would be a good way of modeling it.

On a different note there should be a chance if the crusade is succesful to more easily form the kingdom of asturias (especially considering the place gets quite split up)) particularly if the spanish minor states survive, there should be an event set where they unify into asturias, and there should be province events (for christians) that secedes asturian territory to asturias.

 

[MattyG]

with bavaria first, brandenburg second, and another country third (I'd say the teutonic order myself, Eire is too isolationist generally, in fact there's an argument in my mind for them following the pope).

Teutonic Order. Of course. Yes, they ought to be second, actually.

As for Eire, as I mentioned in a post a while back, this Schism could really blow Eire apart. Eire was, historically, more catholic than Rome. They were the leaders in missionary work and a culture that stuck hard with tradition. But with a schism like this, then you have two traditions pitted again one another. On the one hand, the tradition of the Bishop of Rome being the Pope and the head of the church. And on the other, the alternative Pope representing the traditionalism of the church. This will divide families, parishes, bishoprics and the nation.

I think if you have an unsuccesful crusade people in spain might be suitably dissatisfied with the holy roman empire (and possibly the papacy too) heck they might even join a breakaway religious faction (like reformed ) if the old order failed them they might consider doing away with it (Many converted to protestantism due to a perceived failure of the old order, they saw corruption etc. and many conservatives went protestant) also let's not forget that staying with the pope would be perceived as staying with tradition (by some) I think that random conversion where a third to a half of them convert would be a good way of modeling it

Good argument. Agreed.

On a different note there should be a chance if the crusade is succesful to more easily form the kingdom of asturias (especially considering the place gets quite split up)) particularly if the spanish minor states survive, there should be an event set where they unify into asturias, and there should be province events (for christians) that secedes asturian territory to asturias.

If the crusade is successful, I think that the formation of Asturias is already quite likely. But if the crusde is successful, then this alternate reformation is much less likely. Not zero chance, but pretty close to it.

 

[Don_Quigleone]

I won't comment on how Crusades affect alternate reformation, I'm not sure how it would effect it, but of course the holy roman empire would be considerably more powerful, but you could equally get a backlash after the holy roman emperor died, which would leave chaos in it's wake, (which could give an interesting series of events....)

However when I played as bavaria during the crusades cordoba pretty much collapsed, and several spanish states declared independence (along with the three originals carving out a neat portion for themselves) all three were equally powerful and I was left holding muslim spain, I had no way of getting out of there, Because of this spain was left weak and divided, So I think there should be a strings to give bavaria a way out of the area.

 

[MattyG]

I won't comment on how Crusades affect alternate reformation, I'm not sure how it would effect it, but of course the holy roman empire would be considerably more powerful, but you could equally get a backlash after the holy roman emperor died, which would leave chaos in it's wake, (which could give an interesting series of events....)

However when I played as bavaria during the crusades cordoba pretty much collapsed, and several spanish states declared independence (along with the three originals carving out a neat portion for themselves) all three were equally powerful and I was left holding muslim spain, I had no way of getting out of there, Because of this spain was left weak and divided, So I think there should be a strings to give bavaria a way out of the area.

Remember, that the alternate reformation is - in part - a function of the Pope vrs Emperor struggle. If the Emperor takes the bait and goes on the crusade against Cordoba and loses, this helps the reformist/anti-Emperor cardinals and Papacy. But if Bavaria wins, the reformists lose authority and the traditional reformation will (almost certainly) be the order of the day.

Winning the Iberian crusade as Bavaria as a player isn't too hard. But for the ai Bavaria to win it is much tougher. We also plan to help Cordoba out a bit more, supressing some of their internal difficulties if the crusade goes ahead.

So, when you were Bavaria, didn't you get a series of events that forced you to cede most of the provinces back to the Iberian minors ... ?

 

[Don_Quigleone]

No, mostly because I took the south, which isn't christian, the rest was pretty evenly spread among Iberian minors so asturias didn't trigger, but that's besides the point and was two or three versions back

I think there should probably be a series of events in the event of a succesful crusade whereby the papacy fights back and tries to take more power, but it should start in a rather bad position.

Other than that I think the only thing that needs more examination is breakaway churches(reformed slot), the hansa, scots, kalmar, brittany (anglo) and american christians could all probably join this group under certain cercumstances, but it needs looked at, I'd like it if it went in myself

 

[MattyG]

No, mostly because I took the south, which isn't christian, the rest was pretty evenly spread among Iberian minors so asturias didn't trigger, but that's besides the point and was two or three versions back

I think there should probably be a series of events in the event of a succesful crusade whereby the papacy fights back and tries to take more power, but it should start in a rather bad position.

Other than that I think the only thing that needs more examination is breakaway churches(reformed slot), the hansa, scots, kalmar, brittany (anglo) and american christians could all probably join this group under certain cercumstances, but it needs looked at, I'd like it if it went in myself

There is a series of events whereby the Majors (Bavaria, Savoy etc) are forced to release Inerian minors and provinces to them after the end of the crusade. Maybe th triggers are wrong. I'll check it out.

As for Reformed, absolutely, it will be part of the alternative reformation too.

 

[Don_Quigleone]

I think they do work for Northern Iberia, but not for the south (cordoba proper: andalusia, toledo, gibraltar etc.) Also as far as I know nothing exists to bring all these spanish minors together after a crusade(though I may be wrong) Either way good luck finishing the alternative reformation, I myself have some events I've been putting off

 

[orimazd]

If Leon and Galicia exist at the same time, perhaps they could marry together to form Asturies like Aragon y Castilla IRL. I mean, I can't imagine another way for Asturies to form. Perhaps they both try to destroy each other after Cordoba is weakened beyond reasonable resistance.

 

[MattyG]

I think you guys are right.

The best time would be 1490ish, with Galicia marrying to Leon.

 

[unmerged(36449)]

Remember, that the alternate reformation is - in part - a function of the Pope vrs Emperor struggle. If the Emperor takes the bait and goes on the crusade against Cordoba and loses, this helps the reformist/anti-Emperor cardinals and Papacy. But if Bavaria wins, the reformists lose authority and the traditional reformation will (almost certainly) be the order of the day.

Winning the Iberian crusade as Bavaria as a player isn't too hard. But for the ai Bavaria to win it is much tougher. We also plan to help Cordoba out a bit more, supressing some of their internal difficulties if the crusade goes ahead.

So, when you were Bavaria, didn't you get a series of events that forced you to cede most of the provinces back to the Iberian minors ... ?

Okay let me see if I get this right: The papacy will eventually have Luther as Pope. So in order for Bavaria to fill her historic role of going against the Pope more often then not (well not BAY specifically but the Wittelsbach in general had some massive conflicts with the Pope prior to the game, one of which cost them the Imperial throne), they would stay traditional Catholic.

Just they would get to pick the Pope?

If that is the case I find it plausible.

I would also find the reverse plausible if they felt they had been suckered into going on crusade or the Papacy had been a continuing thorn in the butt.

By embracing Luther and his movement you can therefore seize all church property in the Empire. The amount of money and power that would bring at the same time cutting off from Rome would be a tempting tidbit.

And gives uppity nobles something to busy their time with: Kissing the Emperors fanny for a juicy addition to their estates.

 

[MattyG]

Okay let me see if I get this right: The papacy will eventually have Luther as Pope. So in order for Bavaria to fill her historic role of going against the Pope more often then not (well not BAY specifically but the Wittelsbach in general had some massive conflicts with the Pope prior to the game, one of which cost them the Imperial throne), they would stay traditional Catholic.

Just they would get to pick the Pope?

If that is the case I find it plausible.

I would also find the reverse plausible if they felt they had been suckered into going on crusade or the Papacy had been a continuing thorn in the butt.

By embracing Luther and his movement you can therefore seize all church property in the Empire. The amount of money and power that would bring at the same time cutting off from Rome would be a tempting tidbit.

And gives uppity nobles something to busy their time with: Kissing the Emperors fanny for a juicy addition to their estates.

Here's a rough version of it all.

The Pope wants to break the power of the Emperor (well, the Wittelsbachs, anyway) and plays a game of chicken with them, urging them to crusade in Iberia. Like all games of chicken, the opponent might not flinch ...

If the Emperor backs down, the reformists gain some ascendency. If the Emperor goes on crusade and loses, effectively the same result, with the Bavaria left with egg on its face.

If the Emperor crusades and wins, then they can form Germania and become a very big blob. Players that allow this to happen deserve everything they get. And, the reformists make no headway and there is no chance for the alternate reformation.

Even if the Emperor loses this game of chicken, the traditional reformation is still the more likely outcome, remember.


OK, so, the unlikely outcome is approaching, then Luther is Pope or the dominant cardinal. At this point the die is cast, but the numbers haven't been read. It isn't until Luther's death that the shit hits the fan. The Bavarians gather the conservative cardinals to elect a Pope, the reformists go to Rome. Papal states (if is exists) and all which support the Bishop in Rome go protestant (representing the reformists, not true protestantism as it happened in RL), while Bavaria, Teutonic Order and Brandenburg and all that support traditionalism stay catholic.

This is both a religious and political decision. The Bavarians not only want power, but they represent conservatism. I don't see a lot of theft of church property going on here. They are supposed to be supporting traditionalism, not reforming the church. That said, there can be no doubt that at this point the cardinals need the Emperor more than the other way around, and the temporal powers will be ascendant.

 

[unmerged(16159)]

There is also the subtext of the conflict between the Habsburg Swabians (embracng the lutheran cause) and the Wittelsbach Bavarians. Militarily, Sabia represents the biggest threat to Bavarian power if the religious and political conflict turns aggressive.

Otherwise I like the way this is heading. It also delays the Reformation about 30 years, which might be a good thing.

OK, so, the unlikely outcome is approaching, then Luther is Pope or the dominant cardinal. At this point the die is cast, but the numbers haven't been read. It isn't until Luther's death that the shit hits the fan. The Bavarians gather the conservative cardinals to elect a Pope, the reformists go to Rome. Papal states (if is exists) and all which support the Bishop in Rome go protestant (representing the reformists, not true protestantism as it happened in RL), while Bavaria, Teutonic Order and Brandenburg and all that support traditionalism stay catholic.

This is both a religious and political decision. The Bavarians not only want power, but they represent conservatism. I don't see a lot of theft of church property going on here. They are supposed to be supporting traditionalism, not reforming the church. That said, there can be no doubt that at this point the cardinals need the Emperor more than the other way around, and the temporal powers will be ascendant.