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PASTWATCH: JAPAN

With apologies to Orson Scott Card, whose book “Pastwatch” inspired this AAR.

The Future

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Haxnder stared at the blanket of gray snow through the window of the conference room. The whispers of the other members of Pastwatch were drowned out by the warm voice of the reporter filling the chamber with the news of the day.

“… ministry of agriculture reports that two hundred million acres of farming land were reclaimed last year. With these new devices, the ministry believes it can double that rate. ‘We can actually foresee the end of rationing now,’ says Mikhail Doberoff, a senior research specialist at the ministry…”

The door slid open as Matthaway entered the room. Haxnder glanced at his watch and flashed Matthaway a knowing look. Matthaway grinned sheepishly, pointed at his datapad, and shrugged, moving to his seat. Haxnder let out a sigh, and moved to his tall chair at the head of the table.

“Thank you all for coming today,” he began. “I realize you’ve all been working hard on your various projects and…”

Lacin leaned forward and tapped her datapen on the table. “Hax, how long are we going to have to put up with this charade. We know what’s going on.”

Haxnder felt his body flinch, but his eyes remained fixed on Lacin, and he managed to allow a look of confusion to pass across his face. “What are you talking about, Lacin?”

Lacin looked around the table and received nods from Matthaway and Garner. “We’re talking about what you’ve been doing with Pastwatch. We’re talking about violating the mission. We’re talking about you planning to meddle with the past.”

Haxnder smiled inwardly. He was planning to tell them today, anyway. But he felt pride rise within him that they had put the pieces together, themselves. It was sort of a paternal feeling that swelled in his gut, that he had instilled in them such a …

“Hax!” Lacin said more forcefully. “You’ve had Garner and I pouring over the Pacific theatre of the second world war for months, observing the leaders, compiling reports on their strengths, their weaknesses, what they like to eat for supper, who they boff on a regular basis… Ande has been up to her neck in tracing the development of the nuclear weaponry through the fourth world war… You’ve got Syndel adding some strange new circuitry to the viewers… What the hell is going on!”

Haxnder pressed his hands on the table and looked around at the eyes fixed on him. “You’re absolutely right. The mission of Pastwatch has changed.”

Exclamations of outrage marked the excited chatter that erupted. Haxnder held up his hands. “The council voted on this two years ago. You weren’t told then because we couldn’t risk that any of you would stop work. You are the best we have, and it would have taken too long to get adequate replacements.”

Haxnder ducked his head as Lacin’s datapad whizzed by and ricocheted off the high back of his chair. “You’re damn right I would have stopped this! This goes against everything we stand for! How could you allow –“

“We’re dying, Lacin,” Haxnder said flatly. “Maybe not this year. Maybe it will be next year. Maybe five years from now… but civilization as we know it is gasping its last breath.”

“Nonsense,” Garner retorted. “We’ve all heard the reports from Agriculture. Hell, we just heard one not five minutes ago. Reclamation is –“

“— is a hoax,” Haxnder interrupted. “Reclamation is failing. They can make the reclaimed areas look workable again. But the fact is, even when they can get crops to grow, they are too contaminated by the air, water, and elements from the deeper soil to be edible. There are some reclamation projects that are successful, but those require too much intensive work to be conducted on the hundreds of millions of acres that the ministry projects need to be reclaimed. The main purpose of the reclamation projects now is to maintain some semblance of order in our civilization. If people really knew how bad the food situation is, there would be global chaos.”

The room was quiet now. Haxnder continued, “The fact is, the rations are only going to get smaller. And at some point, the system will break down. Whatever survives will be nothing like what we know now.” He paused to make sure his comrades were following him. “The council decided that it was better that we attempt to prevent that from ever happening.”

Lacin stared out the window. “You realize that changing anything in the past will mean our world, our time… us – will cease to exist.”

Haxnder walked around to stand in front of her gaze. “Yes. Our world is ending, whether we want it to or not. The question is whether we can do anything to save humanity from this fate. The council asked Pastwatch to stop the Conflagration. I’ve been guiding you to that end for some time now.”
 
“But what if the Germans develop the bomb? We know they weren’t too far behind the Americans?” Zekiel put out to the group. They’d been examining the theory for hours.

“That’s a risk we have to take,” Haxnder replied. “The Germans were not as close as some historians would have had us believe. And Garner’s work leads us to believe that the Japanese will not develop the technology on their own.”

Lacin stood up and paced. “But what if the Japanese succeed in occupying large portions of the Americas. Might they not have access to the same scientists the Americans did? Might the Manhattan project take place anyways?”

“They might,” Haxnder conceded. “We’re getting off of our focus here, though. Look, all of Ande’s findings point to the development and use of the atomic bomb by the Americans as the spark for the Conflagration. It led to the development and disbursement of huge stockpiles of nuclear weaponry in the twentieth and twenty-first century. Ande and I think that if Japan can prevent America from entering the war by neutralizing it before Roosevelt has a chance to mobilize for war, it will prevent bipolar nuclear arms race that our history experienced. Best case is that no one develops the bomb until after the second world war has ended, and when the encoded messages from our agents are discovered, the world will be in a state of relative peace and be able to ratinoaly assess the importance of our warning. Worst case, by Ande’s estimates, Germany develops the bomb first. The fallout resulting from these crude atomic weapons is to be preferred to the devastation of the Conflagration…”

“Even if it means an Axis hegemony?” Lacin interjected.

Haxnder nodded. “Even if. Look, our goal is to prevent the destruction of civilization. If that means that we have to allow humanity to experience an age of totalitarian rule, then so be it. We have reason to believe that won’t happen, though. Ande believes that the Japanese will be influenced enough by contact with the Americans that it will moderate some of the Imperial aspects of Hirohito’s rule.”

“I hope you’re right, Hax,” Lacin shook her head. “I’m not sure I condone this ‘anything is better than what we know’ approach… but I don’t guess you’ll be changing your mind.”

No, we won’t. The council has given it’s final approval after reviewing all of the work this group has produced in the last two years.” He looked around the table once more, and settled his gaze on Syndel. “Syndel, are those holo-projectors ready for transport?”

“Yeah, the spirits are waiting to be called on,” Syndel grinned.

“Ande, Jenton, are you two ready for your trip?” Haxnder examined the two youngest members of his team. They both nodded. “Then let’s get to work.”

The members of Pastwatch slowly filed out of the conference room, filled with hope and anxiety about their final project…
 
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Tokyo, Japan -- 1935

April 5, 1935
Tokyo, Japan

Emperor Hirohito stared at the two translucent figures in front of him.

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He fell to his knees, his head lowered so his eyes faced the ground. “I have disappointed my ancestors. I am ashamed.” His voice quavered.

It was his father, Emperor Taisho who spoke first. “No, Emperor. You have not. But you must listen to us carefully. Your heart guides you in your respect for us, but your mind leads you astray.”

Hirohito stood. He still did not raise his eyes. He waited for the spirits to continue.

Meiji spoke next. “The path you have chosen in your dealings with the military will lead to disaster for Japan. Your generals are wrong.”

Hirohito stiffened. “To act against the military will lead to an even greater schism betw…”

“You should not act against them,” Taisho interrupted, his voice echoing in the small chamber. “You must channel them. One does not dam a great river; one alters its flow.”

Meiji moved closer. “One called Tojo and his supporters will lead you to war against the Chinese. You must not allow this. Fire will consume Japan from the east.”

Hirohito pondered the floor for a moment. He lifted his head slightly towards the figure. “America?”

His father nodded. “If you turn to the west, the Americans will strike you in the back.”

“Then I must put a stop to this talk of ‘empire’.”

“No,” Meiji said in a whisper. “You must make an empire of the Pacific. You must guide Tojo east.”

Hirohito did not breathe as his grandfather’s words sunk in. “But that will surely bring war with America…”

Taisho shook his head. “No, it will bring war to America.”

The room grew dark as the forms faded. Hirohito sank to his bed. He knew sleep would not come this night.
 
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November 14, 1935

Tatsukichi Minobe Dead!

Tatsukichi Minobe, former member of the House of Peers and a leading scholar on constitutional law at Tokyo Imperial University was found dead last night outside his home. Officials have not commented about the circumstances of his death.

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Minobe resigned in September from the House of Peers because of controversy over his stance in favor a reduced role of the Emperor and the military in modern Japan.
 
The Imperial Conference

From Reflections on the Road to War

Following the unsuccessful coup of Lieutenant Colonel Saburo Aizawa in February of 1936, the Kodoha faction of the military lost face, and thus influence in operation of the military. Lieutenant General Hideki Tojo’s faction, which favored industrialism to make the military stronger, gained dominance, and worked closely with industrialists and the government bureaucracy. Tojo and Emperor Hirohito became close associates, and Tojo was promoted to General in late March of 1936. This set the stage for the Imperial Conference of April 1936, which set a final course towards war with United States.

The end result of the Conference was a decision to begin an ambitious program of occupation in South and Central America. The oil-rich nations of Columbia, Venezuela, and Mexico were targeted for invasion. Fears of American reaction were swept aside, given Tojo’s strong beliefs that the American forces were in no shape to conduct major offensive operations, even in their own hemisphere.

By October of 1936, the Imperial Navy had been reorganized into four task forces centered around the great carriers; the Akagi under Grand Admiral Toyoda; the Ryuju, under Grand Admiral Izaki; the Hosho, under Grand Admiral Yamamoto; and the Kaga, under Grand Admiral Nagano. Yamamoto was given the secret task of planning the escort of the convoy fleets to Venezuela, the first nation to be “colonized.”

Improvement of the Japanese submarine fleet was given top priority by the decision-makers at this conference. It was hoped that submarines would isolate American forces in the Pacific from the mainland and help protect the extended supply lines from the home islands to the Americas. If Great Britain and her Allies chose to become involved in the war, submarines would be the first line of defense against Allied naval encroachment while the war with America ensued.

Two new forces of the Army were training together by October as well. The First Imperial Army, under command of Field Marshall Terauchi, consisted of eleven divisions of infantry and artillery. The Imperial Cavalry, under command of Field Marshall Hata, consisted of eight cavalry divisions and horse-drawn artillery. Hata was expected to lead the invasion of Venezuela.

April 30, 1936

Conference Notes

1. The purpose of war with the United States is to remove the threat this country poses to Japanese influence in the Greater Pacific, to establish a sphere for the self-defense and self-preservation of our Empire, and to build a New Order in the Greater Pacific.

2. War with the United States will most likely result in war with the other countries exerting influence in the Pacific – Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Australia.

3. A war with the United States and Great Britain will be long, and will become a war of endurance. It is very difficult to predict the termination of war, and it would be well-nigh impossible to expect the surrender of the United States. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that the war may end because of great change in American public opinion… At any rate, we should be able to establish an invincible position, by building a strategically advantageous position through the occupation… of the rich resources of the Southeastern Regions.

4. We must carry out military preparations as secretly as possible and conceal our intentions. Occupation of the American Regions must proceed with constant diplomatic assurances to the American public.
 
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Amazing

Wow, wow, and wow. I would never have thought to apply Pastwatch (which is, incidentally, probably my favorite book by Card, who is one of my favorite writers) to HOI, but it's a brilliant idea. I loved the scene in the book where "God" appears before Columbus, and I think you pulled that off very well here.

One question: did you play the game out, and then fit the story to it, or are you playing the game with the intent of following the motives you've established for yourself? Either way, it should prove very interesting.
 
Aug. 3 1936

Jenton walked briskly through the courtyard at the University of Rome. He brushed a lock of thick black hair from his forehead, matted in place by the sweat from the afternoon sun and his own nerves. He was tempted to attribute his discomfort to the food, but his stomach had adjusted to the rich local cuisine some time ago. Any illusion of himself as the cool, professional killer had vanished when Minobe begged for his life after the first bullet had lodged itself in the doorframe when he unexpectedly bent to pick something up off his doorstep. Jenton’s sense of mission more than any reserve of calm had allowed him to fire the next two rounds as Minobe plead for mercy with his eyes.

Going indoors did little to relieve the heat. The air seemed thick to Jenton as he ducked into an alcove on the pretense of examining the display. He pulled the pistol from his waist and fixed the silencer to the barrel of the gun. Pastwatch had done its best to model the pistol to look like a Luger 9mm to the casual observer, but with all the refinements that the future could provide within the design limits. The bullets, unfortunately, had to be vintage, as there was no way Jenton could ensure he could retrieve them. Not that it mattered significantly – the bullets of 1936 were not lacking in their ability to kill.

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The halls were relatively empty at this time of day, but he was confident the professor would be at his chalkboard. The door to the room was open, as to allow a breeze, but Jenton closed it as he entered. The man at the board turned and smiled.

“Antonio, I’m glad you made it.,” he said, turning back to his diagram on the board.

“I’m sorry, Professor,” Jenton replied, pulling the pistol from his belt.

“Think nothing of it,” the professor said, continuing to sketch with his chalk. “You actually gave me more time to think. Tell me what you –“

The bullet shattering the chalkboard made more noise than the pistol as Jenton’s target sprawled forward, sending chalk scattering across the floor. Blood obscured the sketching on the board, and began to pool on the floor around the man. Jenton locked the door to the lab, checked the hallway, and strolled towards the courtyard, his heart pounding in his chest. He hoped Ande was getting along better than he.
 
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August 4, 1936

PROFESSOR MURDERED AT UNIVERSITY!
Two Men Arrested for Brutal Attack on Leading Scientist

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Enrico Fermi, Professor of Theoretical Physics at the University of Rome, was found shot to death in his lab late last evening. Two men were arrested this morning and are being questioned. Both are known to be Bolshevik enemies of Rome.

Dr. Fermi was born in 1901 in Rome. He graduated from the University of Pisa in 1922 with his doctoral degree in physics. In 1924 he became a lecturer at the University of Florence, and in 1927 earned his most recent position at the University of Rome. Dr. Fermi was well-known in the academic community for his work on statistical laws governing the particles subject to Pauli’s exclusion principle and the discovery of slow neutrons. Italy has truly lost one of its finest sons, and the culprits responsible will be brought to justice!

(Thanks to http://www.lucidcafe.com/library/95sep/fermi.html and http://www.nobel.se/physics/laureates/1938/fermi-bio.html)
 
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Mar. 19, 1937

Hideki Tojo Elected Prime Minister

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General Hideki Tojo was the surprise victor in yesterday’s election for prime minister. Many observers had expected Fumimaro Kondoye to win the Parliamentary vote, but praise for Tojo from Emperor Hirohito in the weeks leading up to the vote caused the former lieutenant general and chief of military police to garner enough support to take the office.

Tojo promised to build a coalition government that would support a strong Japan and face the challenges posed to Japan by those nations that would “prevent Japan’s right to exercise its influence in the Greater Pacific.”

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Excerpt from David Bergamini’s Japan’s Imperial Conspiracy, page 801:

"In appointing Tojo simultaneously Prime, War, and Home Minister, Hirohito gave him enough power to act as a shogun, a wartime dictator. Hirohito showed no uneasiness at delegating this immense power, for be was really delegating only responsibility and he trusted Tojo implicitly. Events would prove that his trust was not misplaced. Tojo and the Emperor had much in common: a quick appreciation of technical realities, a meticulous attention to detail, an impatience with too much indirect and belly talk, a charm which extended only to immediate personal relationships, and a blind pride in the righteousness of Japan's cause. Both men shared a conviction that 'the Japanese race' had been persecuted by the white race."
 
oi
 
this aar is ok, want to add it to the aar library?