When you ask a country to do something, diplomacy in EU4 is either accept or reject, 1 or 0.
If the AI will accept or refuse the demands, it depends on many factors, which is good because you can see what determines your score and the answers.
Anyway, this makes the AI uncapable of betraying an alliance (if you can't call to arms your allies, they simply automatically won't be called) or behaving in an unpredictable way. Either they will sign the royal marriage, or give you the military access, or sign an alliance... or not. A little mechanic. You never wonder if your ally will come to your help, or if your treaty will really be accepted. It's good to know what to do in order to make your proposal accepted, but it would be better if you can try to force odds ("they dislike me, but maybe I will get the marriage anyway") or rely on the trust you have for your neighbours ("they fear me, so I guess they will accept").
The solution IMHO comes from HoI2, where every diplomatic action had a chance of success.
So, you don't simply have +20 (same religion) and -5 (border friction) and get +15 that is "yes" when you want to sign a royal marrage. Instead, you have i.e. 35% (unlikely to be accepted), 50% (totally random response), 80% (likely to be accepted) or 100% (accepted).
Every point below or above 0 when you sum up everything for getting a diplomatic response can influence the %, by 1 % point or 2 or even more.
I.e. if the result of all the factors is 0, the % might be 50. If you improve relations to +10, you will get 60% or 70% probability of success. If you turn heretical and get -50, the result will be -40, then 10% probability of success or even 0. If you are allied to a rival, +20, which makes the total result to be +10-50+20=-20 ---> from 50% to 30% or from 50% to 10%.
Besides, this prediction could also be inaccurate, depending on your diplomatic skills or your espionage level (if you don't, you will get unreliable predictions, simulating bad intelligence from your diplomats, spies, embassies).
Thus, players will have more aleatory outcomes in diplomacy: the call to arms is rated 65%, can I risk my alliance and try to bring them with me? The royal marriage is rated 40%, will I still be lucky and get the dinastic tie? The ask for maps/fleet basin/enforce peace is 85%, am I enough confident or am I prepared for the rare case that they will refuse? This will make diplomacy more realistic as it is made by human beings capable of changing their mind or relying on random factors, not cold logical robots that decide only by arithmetics.
If the AI will accept or refuse the demands, it depends on many factors, which is good because you can see what determines your score and the answers.
Anyway, this makes the AI uncapable of betraying an alliance (if you can't call to arms your allies, they simply automatically won't be called) or behaving in an unpredictable way. Either they will sign the royal marriage, or give you the military access, or sign an alliance... or not. A little mechanic. You never wonder if your ally will come to your help, or if your treaty will really be accepted. It's good to know what to do in order to make your proposal accepted, but it would be better if you can try to force odds ("they dislike me, but maybe I will get the marriage anyway") or rely on the trust you have for your neighbours ("they fear me, so I guess they will accept").
The solution IMHO comes from HoI2, where every diplomatic action had a chance of success.
So, you don't simply have +20 (same religion) and -5 (border friction) and get +15 that is "yes" when you want to sign a royal marrage. Instead, you have i.e. 35% (unlikely to be accepted), 50% (totally random response), 80% (likely to be accepted) or 100% (accepted).
Every point below or above 0 when you sum up everything for getting a diplomatic response can influence the %, by 1 % point or 2 or even more.
I.e. if the result of all the factors is 0, the % might be 50. If you improve relations to +10, you will get 60% or 70% probability of success. If you turn heretical and get -50, the result will be -40, then 10% probability of success or even 0. If you are allied to a rival, +20, which makes the total result to be +10-50+20=-20 ---> from 50% to 30% or from 50% to 10%.
Besides, this prediction could also be inaccurate, depending on your diplomatic skills or your espionage level (if you don't, you will get unreliable predictions, simulating bad intelligence from your diplomats, spies, embassies).
Thus, players will have more aleatory outcomes in diplomacy: the call to arms is rated 65%, can I risk my alliance and try to bring them with me? The royal marriage is rated 40%, will I still be lucky and get the dinastic tie? The ask for maps/fleet basin/enforce peace is 85%, am I enough confident or am I prepared for the rare case that they will refuse? This will make diplomacy more realistic as it is made by human beings capable of changing their mind or relying on random factors, not cold logical robots that decide only by arithmetics.
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