Remilitarization of Rheinland; possible French response

[bz249]

So let's assume that in March 1936 there is no election campaign and the French finances are in acceptable shape. Thus there are no political and economical obstacles for a French response to the remilitarization of the Rheinland.

What could they do and roughly what can be the timeline?

Did they had a rapid response force which can move in to Germany as soon as they are orderd to do? Can they organize a strong enough strike force using only their peactime army? Can they afford an occupation force manpower wise without compromising the other duties of their army?

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

German troops had orders to retreat at the slightest French response. So not much was needed.

 

[bz249]

German troops had orders to retreat at the slightest French response. So not much was needed.

Did they mailed that to Gamelin also?

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Did they mailed that to Gamelin also?

Yes yes I know.

 

[yerm]

France would have easily been able to afford to reoccupy. Hell it may have even ended up profitible too. We know that the German military would have withdrawn in haste without any attempt to fight.

I am not so sure of the hypothetical ability for France politically to sustain an occupation. Nobody in 1936 is terribly afraid of Germany. There is no way to really make this appear as anything short of bullying whereas the nazi propagandists will be going to town showcasing brutality and oppresion (real or fabricated) and drumming up anti French sentiment.

The historical decision to let Germany get away with it was never all about just finances. The political capital wasn't really there.

 

[bz249]

France would have easily been able to afford to reoccupy. Hell it may have even ended up profitible too. We know that the German military would have withdrawn in haste without any attempt to fight.

I am not so sure of the hypothetical ability for France politically to sustain an occupation. Nobody in 1936 is terribly afraid of Germany. There is no way to really make this appear as anything short of bullying whereas the nazi propagandists will be going to town showcasing brutality and oppresion (real or fabricated) and drumming up anti French sentiment.

The historical decision to let Germany get away with it was never all about just finances. The political capital wasn't really there.

But from the side of the military: was there any plan? In a fashion that we need 30.000 infantry, 10 batteries of medium artillery, 600 medium truck, plus at least 30 field kitchens. For that we have to mobilize at least 150 cooks from the Strassbourg and Colmar area, the vanguard force should consist of Div. XY etc, etc and at H+12 hours we should have secured Trier.
If there was a plan what was the supposed timeline?

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

No, there is no plan. This is not a military operation, it is a diplomatic gambit based on the divisions of the European powers surrounding the Lacorno Pact. And as Graf said; if France had sent two policemen on bicycles to object, Germany would have withdrawn immediately.

Many people felt Germany got hosed. There was enough diplomatic chatter between France and the Soviet Union allying that seizing the Rhineland was considered common sense to protecting Germany going forward. France was more concerned with Britain backing Germany than with Germany rearming and starting a new war at that point.

What Hitler was best at was discerning division between his rivals and exploiting it, so he pushed his agenda forward by an entire year when he saw the opportunity to take back the Rhineland in January of '36 rather than waiting for his original plan of '37 to take advantage of the angst and win his first set of laurels.

So Germany was given back the Rhineland without a shot being fired. Because Germany had promised to never declare war on another power again, and would never ask for anything again. Ever.

 

[bz249]

No, there is no plan. This is not a military operation, it is a diplomatic gambit based on the divisions of the European powers surrounding the Lacorno Pact. And as Graf said; if France had sent two policemen on bicycles to object, Germany would have withdrawn immediately.

Many people felt Germany got hosed. There was enough diplomatic chatter between France and the Soviet Union allying that seizing the Rhineland was considered common sense to protecting Germany going forward. France was more concerned with Britain backing Germany than with Germany rearming and starting a new war at that point.

What Hitler was best at was discerning division between his rivals and exploiting it, so he pushed his agenda forward by an entire year when he saw the opportunity to take back the Rhineland in January of '36 rather than waiting for his original plan of '37 to take advantage of the angst and win his first set of laurels.

So Germany was given back the Rhineland without a shot being fired. Because Germany had promised to never declare war on another power again, and would never ask for anything again. Ever.

This is the interwar French army, so none will dispatch the bicycle postmen without a direct and explicit order from the higher ups... and what I read is that Gamelin (somewhat/exorbitatly) exaggerated the possible German resistance*, which meant a mobilization would be necessary. Since he perfectly knew that the mobilization was politically/economically unfeasible he has saved his ass, because he was ready to do something, but he was not allowed to and it would not be blatantly clear that he has no idea what to do (which would have been planning for such a situation beforehand).

*and while the Wehrmacht (might) had orders (we have anecdotical evidence from people who had their best interest to prove that it was like that) to retreat and avoid confrontation at the first stage this does not mean that they would do nothing after observing how the events unfold.

 

[Easy-Kill]

German troops had orders to retreat at the slightest French response. So not much was needed.

So the Germans were imitating French Military doctrine?

Sorry couldn't resist the joke

 

[demanvanwezel]

No, there is no plan. This is not a military operation, it is a diplomatic gambit based on the divisions of the European powers surrounding the Lacorno Pact. And as Graf said; if France had sent two policemen on bicycles to object, Germany would have withdrawn immediately.

Many people felt Germany got hosed. There was enough diplomatic chatter between France and the Soviet Union allying that seizing the Rhineland was considered common sense to protecting Germany going forward. France was more concerned with Britain backing Germany than with Germany rearming and starting a new war at that point.

What Hitler was best at was discerning division between his rivals and exploiting it, so he pushed his agenda forward by an entire year when he saw the opportunity to take back the Rhineland in January of '36 rather than waiting for his original plan of '37 to take advantage of the angst and win his first set of laurels.

So Germany was given back the Rhineland without a shot being fired. Because Germany had promised to never declare war on another power again, and would never ask for anything again. Ever.

adding to this: when france had occupied the ruhr there was already diplomatic backslash against it so I doubt that they'd do so a second time and with quotes like "germans walking in their own backyard" and "like if brittain would re-occupy portsmouth" the british didn't seem on the french side of the argument at all

edit: so this is a win-win situation for hitler, either he moves against the "versailles-diktat" like he promised the germans or he makes the french look like unreasonable agressors thereby strengthening his own diplomatic standing

 

[pithorr]

I thought Gamelin actually wanted to enter Rheinland in response, but didn't get the green light...

 

[mccarty.geoff]

Germany remilitarised the Rhineland due to Frances economic and political difficulties early. Originally they slated the attempt for 1937. Which is probably when this hypothetical action would take place. France could have steamrolled from Cologne to Munich probably within a few months. Would have taken 50,000 casualties and required a general draft. French navy could have blockaded the German Bight. Germans may have taken less casualties and played a defense in depth with their light armor regiments running back and forth to stop French spearheads. Soviets would have probably assisted France with a naval invasion of East Prussia and battling the more evenly matched German Baltic fleet. Most neutrals would lean towards Germany without real material support. Austria would ally with Germany but, it's unlikely the Italians would.
If the French successfully stop the German counter attacks they might annex Baden-Wurttemburg if not Bavaria as well. The Rhineland itself would be fought for to the bitter end. Either way Hitler or his successor would be preparing for the next war in the 40s. If the Soviets successfully capture East Prussia they'd annex it perhaps invading Poland if their Fleet gets wiped out. Anglo-America would probably get into a shooting trade war with a Franco-Soviet alliance in the 1940s.

 

[IsadorBG]

Germany remilitarised the Rhineland due to Frances economic and political difficulties early. Originally they slated the attempt for 1937. Which is probably when this hypothetical action would take place. France could have steamrolled from Cologne to Munich probably within a few months. Would have taken 50,000 casualties and required a general draft. French navy could have blockaded the German Bight. Germans may have taken less casualties and played a defense in depth with their light armor regiments running back and forth to stop French spearheads. Soviets would have probably assisted France with a naval invasion of East Prussia and battling the more evenly matched German Baltic fleet. Most neutrals would lean towards Germany without real material support. Austria would ally with Germany but, it's unlikely the Italians would.
If the French successfully stop the German counter attacks they might annex Baden-Wurttemburg if not Bavaria as well. The Rhineland itself would be fought for to the bitter end. Either way Hitler or his successor would be preparing for the next war in the 40s. If the Soviets successfully capture East Prussia they'd annex it perhaps invading Poland if their Fleet gets wiped out. Anglo-America would probably get into a shooting trade war with a Franco-Soviet alliance in the 1940s.

That escalated quickly.

 

[yerm]

Germany remilitarised the Rhineland due to Frances economic and political difficulties early. Originally they slated the attempt for 1937. Which is probably when this hypothetical action would take place. France could have steamrolled from Cologne to Munich probably within a few months. Would have taken 50,000 casualties and required a general draft. French navy could have blockaded the German Bight. Germans may have taken less casualties and played a defense in depth with their light armor regiments running back and forth to stop French spearheads. Soviets would have probably assisted France with a naval invasion of East Prussia and battling the more evenly matched German Baltic fleet. Most neutrals would lean towards Germany without real material support. Austria would ally with Germany but, it's unlikely the Italians would.
If the French successfully stop the German counter attacks they might annex Baden-Wurttemburg if not Bavaria as well. The Rhineland itself would be fought for to the bitter end. Either way Hitler or his successor would be preparing for the next war in the 40s. If the Soviets successfully capture East Prussia they'd annex it perhaps invading Poland if their Fleet gets wiped out. Anglo-America would probably get into a shooting trade war with a Franco-Soviet alliance in the 1940s.

So France calls a draft and full mobilization, invades their neighbor, occupies them, and then possibly annexes swathes of it? Because they militarized inside their own borders?

Hitler ended up at war with half of Europe before his warmongering had left pre WWI German land. The USSR had everyone on edge and wasn't even close to having reconstituted imperial Russia. But... France conquers potentially as far as Bavaria, and only Austria blinks? Sure thing.

 

[mccarty.geoff]

It's a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question. Don't see why not. France could even invade through Luxembourg without the UK doing anything but, complaining. It's what they did in the Franco-Prussian war despite the scraps of paper guaranteeing Luxembourg in 1871. In 1935 France had just signed a pact with the USSR and there was a socialist element in the Foreign Ministry that wanted to prosecute war on Germany. No reason for a French-German war without land acquisition. The remilitarisation of the Rhineland was slated after the Berlin Olympics because they knew it would be a political success. All this hypothetical answer requires are overt warmongers in the French cabinet and no political/economic upsets as per the OP.

 

[bz249]

It's a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question. Don't see why not. France could even invade through Luxembourg without the UK doing anything but, complaining. It's what they did in the Franco-Prussian war despite the scraps of paper guaranteeing Luxembourg in 1871. In 1935 France had just signed a pact with the USSR and there was a socialist element in the Foreign Ministry that wanted to prosecute war on Germany. No reason for a French-German war without land acquisition. The remilitarisation of the Rhineland was slated after the Berlin Olympics because they knew it would be a political success. All this hypothetical answer requires are overt warmongers in the French cabinet and no political/economic upsets as per the OP.

The hypothetical question was more about whether the French had any drafts to do it. So Gamelin goes to the cabinet meeting with a big envelope containing a French maneuver to occupy the West Bank of the Rhine involving 8 active peacetime divisions and codenamed "Rouget de Lisle"

(Whether it is codenamed Austerlitz and involves 6 or 10 divisions is more or less unimportant)

 

[mccarty.geoff]

France's 1936 population was 41.5M. Which had stagnated since 1931 due to the economic crisis which wasn't a sudden problem. After the market crash people emigrated. If there had been no economic-political difficulties since the '29 market crash France would have a population of 43M.
Typically 10% of a nations population (1/3rd of service age and fit males) can be drafted under a war economy. France certainly couldn't have treated the Third Reich like they did the Weimar Republic. They would need the 100 division metropolitan army at arms before invading. Without economic or political difficulties that wouldn't be a problem. The time frame, Germany's draft conditions and international response are the more interesting aspects. Haven't got the numbers but, it stands to reason that France would have far more material like armored vehicles, artillery, ships, and aircraft than Germany before 1938.

 

[yerm]

France's 1936 population was 41.5M. Which had stagnated since 1931 due to the economic crisis which wasn't a sudden problem. After the market crash people emigrated. If there had been no economic-political difficulties since the '29 market crash France would have a population of 43M.
Typically 10% of a nations population (1/3rd of service age and fit males) can be drafted under a war economy. France certainly couldn't have treated the Third Reich like they did the Weimar Republic. They would need the 100 division metropolitan army at arms before invading. Without economic or political difficulties that wouldn't be a problem. The time frame, Germany's draft conditions and international response are the more interesting aspects. Haven't got the numbers but, it stands to reason that France would have far more material like armored vehicles, artillery, ships, and aircraft than Germany before 1938.

France still did in many ways up until they lost. It wasn't lack of material that allowed the Nazi victory. In any case, it's also not a lack of material that is leading us to call your hypothetical preposterous. It's a combination of lack of French willpower at the manpower level (which I am happy to handwave), and a lack of concern at an international level (I cannot). What I believe you are basically proposing is France gets to 1v1 Germany. I am suggesting this is even more farfetched than a what-if where Germany gets to Barbarossa and nobody else steps in at all. Never gonna happen.

Hitler was able to get away with numerous small victories because of the perception of Germany as a humbled nation. France does not have that luxury. An invasion of Germany in 1937 is going to be taken as pure warmongering. The USSR also has no land border to Germany yet. The idea that France can come back to stomp on the German industrial heart, and then annex through the best German agriculture land too? At least include a complete shutdown of the French ability to project a navy northeast in the what if, at minimum!

 

[mccarty.geoff]

Just takes a little imagination. France boycotts the Olympics. They send expeditions and material for the Spanish Republic while drafting. Germans militarize the Rhineland and Franco-Soviet alliance is activated. Who supposedly would come to Germany's defense? Germany's withdrawal from the League of Nations and violation of Versailles and Locarno would make at best a neutral consensus among the international community. Necessarily, the Soviets would be needed to divert Germany's defenses. I've already said above that the French and Soviet navy could blockade and assist naval invasions. Don't need anyone's agreement to my hypothetical situation and yet I see noone actually offering another. Just asinine criticism.

 

[yerm]

Just takes a little imagination. France boycotts the Olympics. They send expeditions and material for the Spanish Republic while drafting. Germans militarize the Rhineland and Franco-Soviet alliance is activated. Who supposedly would come to Germany's defense? Germany's withdrawal from the League of Nations and violation of Versailles and Locarno would make at best a neutral consensus among the international community. Necessarily, the Soviets would be needed to divert Germany's defenses. I've already said above that the French and Soviet navy could blockade and assist naval invasions. Don't need anyone's agreement to my hypothetical situation and yet I see noone actually offering another. Just asinine criticism.

Fine, an alternative hypothetical. Seeing it as pure naked aggression, the British denounce France but refuse to go to war, but leverage their navy to prevent a blockade and attempt to get trade opportunities. France is cut out of the baltic (and trade with Norway because hey why not more for Britain). No British troops touch combat. On the other hand, that activation of the alliance with the soviets you mentioned? Yeah, that means Poland, Czechoslovakia, Austria, and probably several others are suddenly quite keen on German survival and friendship - they know perfectly well if the USSR sends troops to Germany its through them and they won't leave and/or they're just friendly Austria.

The low countries are likely terrified here. No chance in hell they allow quarter for french troops. France and USSR (a much much weaker USSR than 1941) are now at war with central Europe with most of the world (except maybe Italy, who'll just try to poach from a loser) at odds with them.