Soviets break the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact May 13th 1940?

[Sunforged General]

3 days after Germany begins the invasion of France, what if the Soviets threw everything they had into a invasion of western Poland and Germany? Is this the one and only Scenario where Germany is crushed without US help being needed? Considering over 90% of the German army was involved in the invasion of France, the Germans would have virtually no troops to stop the Red Army, no fortifications in the east to slow the red army down. (none that existed in 1940 anyway). Not to mention at this point in history, the Soviets had more submarines than the Germans had U-boats, meaning the Germans lose control over the Baltic sea.

This scenario is entirely plausible, I see no reason why Stalin wouldn't be able to break the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, due to his total control over the communist party and soviet government, he could simply push this decision through. And seeing as how Hitler stated in Mein Kampf that he wanted to annihilate the Russians, perhaps Stalin should have invaded Germany at that time and used Things like Mein Kampf and other Nazi Rhetoric to make the Soviet Invasion a justified preemptive strike.

Its also worth noting that Germany was getting most of its oil, rubber, grain from the USSR at this time, cutting off these supplies would seriously limit German major operations, meaning they probably would not be able to rush to Paris before the Soviets get to Berlin.

 

[Kovax]

In 1940, Russia was not in a great position to invade anything, barely starting to recover from the purges of all of its military branches, with mostly newly assigned or reassigned officers across the board, many of them with little experience but highly rated for "political reliability". At that point, the army was a shambles, and taking over and consolidating the undermanned Polish eastern sectors was probably enough of a problem for the moment. The German garrison forces left in Poland would probably have been sufficient to delay the disorganized Soviets for at least a month or two in Poland before getting anywhere near Germany. By then, pulling some units out of France would be possible without jeopardizing the successful conclusion of the operation. By 1941, with a year to reorganize, it was becoming a different story, and by 1942 the Red Army was at least respectably competent.

 

[bz249]

Why would Stalin do something, which is totally against his own mentality, he was a backstabber for sure, but methodical and had the mindset of scavanger and not of a predator. Attacking Germany in 1940 is too risky.

 

[olm]

I guess the main question would be whether Germans panic or not. If they do and immediately pull lots of troops away from the west then could give French some breathing space. As Kovax said Soviets probably couldn't push very deep into Germany anyway. Either way it would improve Allied morale considerably, meaning that even if they get pushed off the continent the French would be more likely to continue war from colonies instead of forming Vichy. Also with no quick end of war in sight, Italians and various small Balkan states would probably elect to stay neutral.

That said, there is no practical reason for Stalin to do this though, as like many others he expected a long drawn out conflict in the west and was caught completely pants down by rapid German victories.

 

[cpreston5]

As others have said, Stalin was extremely opposed to instigating open conflict with Germany, and even up to summer 1941 he was still looking for ways of placating the Germans.

If the Soviets go in in 1940, they've first got to contend with the fact that, having not yet annexed the Baltic states, they actually have quite a narrow border with the Germans, and that the logistics of coordinating two forces largely divided by the Pripet Marshes and then trying to unite them in central Poland complicates the entire operation a lot. The Soviets already had enormous issues with coordinating large formations, even on the defensive, and so the idea of the Germans being overwhelmed and pushed back quickly is quite fanciful. Particularly so considering that there are several rivers to cross, and large urban areas to take, that buy even more time for whatever forces the Germans have available.

If the Germans panic (which to me is dependent on the Soviets scoring quick victories) and pull major forces out of France, then I think the Germans quickly throw the Soviets back, France and Britain establish themselves in the West, and the war devolves into a WW1-ish scenario.

If the Germans hold the course in the West, then I think the Battle of France proceeds as planned, and then the Red Army is contained until it's eventually thrown back by a major German counter-attack, most likely in summer 1941, along with Balkan and potentially Baltic allies and probably Finland, all even more convinced of the threat of the USSR. From there I think the war in the East would follow broadly a similar contour to history, with the Germans trying to destroy the USSR, and the Soviets coming out on top eventually.

The strategic situation compels the Germans to try and go for the jugular and decisively beat the Soviets regardless of who starts the war.

 

[Easy-Kill]

Its also worth noting that Germany was getting most of its oil,

That isn't even remotely close. In 1940, Germany acquired 7600K tonnes of oil, of which only 2075K was imported.

During the MR pact, Germany imported only 900K tonnes from the Soviets. So I am sorry to say, Germany was not as cripplingly dependent on Soviet oil (and probably not the others either) prior to the invasion of France.

 

[Sunforged General]

That isn't even remotely close. In 1940, Germany acquired 7600K tonnes of oil, of which only 2075K was imported.

During the MR pact, Germany imported only 900K tonnes from the Soviets. So I am sorry to say, Germany was not as cripplingly dependent on Soviet oil (and probably not the others either) prior to the invasion of France.

Yeah im sure the loss of 900 thousand tonnes of oil will have no detrimental effect at all. Do you have any idea how many trucks, tanks, aircraft or ships that can power? Germany also got considerable amounts of Rubber and Grain from the USSR. According to this chart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Commercial_Agreement_(1940)#Hitler_breaks_the_Pact

The germans would have run out of grain and be at minus -256.1 thousand tonnes of grain by june 1941. Its also important to note that if the Soviets join the allies, there will be immense pressure on Romania not to sell oil to Germany. Britain had this strategy of buying out all the Romanian oil. Now the loss of Romanian oil on top of Soviet oil will leave Germany severely crippled. The Germans never came close to being self sufficient on oil with synthetic production.

 

[pithorr]

Stalin's main goal was to let capitalist pigs to mutually bleed themselves, so what was a point to interrupt them?
He wasn't such a warmonger how some seem to think about him today.

 

[Sunforged General]

That isn't even remotely close. In 1940, Germany acquired 7600K tonnes of oil, of which only 2075K was imported.

During the MR pact, Germany imported only 900K tonnes from the Soviets. So I am sorry to say, Germany was not as cripplingly dependent on Soviet oil (and probably not the others either) prior to the invasion of France.

Also there is this. "In August, as Germany planned to invade Poland and prepared for an eventual war with France, German war planners estimated that, with an expected British naval blockade, if the Soviet Union became hostile, Germany would fall short of its war mobilization requirements by 9.9 million tons of oil and 260,000 tons of manganese.[18] At that time, Germany possessed only two to three months of rubber stocks and three to six months of oil stocks.[18] Because of the expected naval blockade, the Soviet Union would become the only potential supplier for many items.[18]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Commercial_Agreement_(1940)#Resource_requirements

 

[Easy-Kill]

Yeah im sure the loss of 900 thousand tonnes of oil will have no detrimental effect at all. Do you have any idea how many trucks, tanks, aircraft or ships that can power?

You stated that Germany got most of its oil from the Soviet trade. It didn't. Germany acquired approximately 33M metric tonnes in the 1938-41 period. Only 0.9M came from Soviet trucks. That amounts to only about 2.7% of German oil up until it reaches the gates of Moscow. I do not believe that it would make that much more of an impact. Oil did not become an issue until 1942 when the Anglo-US strategic bombing campaign started to drop significant volumes of bombs.

The germans would have run out of grain and be at minus -256.1 thousand tonnes of grain by june 1941.

This is simply not true an accurate reflection. Pre-war Germany had approximately 8.8M tonnes in storage and following the blockade, by mid 1940 this had only reduced by 1.3M (Tooze's Wages of destruction). The number presented in the Wikipedia table reflects only on imports from the Soviet Union vs internal production. It doesn't account for the huge volume of grain that was imported from Hungary, Romania and Yugoslavia. Tooze quotes the German statistical yearbook which is available online. I am sure that if you would like to better understand the grain situation in Germany in 1940, you could find the exact picture. Needless to say, Germany was in a fire situation, but the Soviet supplies were not critical.

 

[IsadorBG]

3 days after Germany begins the invasion of France, what if the Soviets threw everything they had into a invasion of western Poland and Germany? Is this the one and only Scenario where Germany is crushed without US help being needed? Considering over 90% of the German army was involved in the invasion of France, the Germans would have virtually no troops to stop the Red Army, no fortifications in the east to slow the red army down. (none that existed in 1940 anyway). Not to mention at this point in history, the Soviets had more submarines than the Germans had U-boats, meaning the Germans lose control over the Baltic sea.

This scenario is entirely plausible, I see no reason why Stalin wouldn't be able to break the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, due to his total control over the communist party and soviet government, he could simply push this decision through. And seeing as how Hitler stated in Mein Kampf that he wanted to annihilate the Russians, perhaps Stalin should have invaded Germany at that time and used Things like Mein Kampf and other Nazi Rhetoric to make the Soviet Invasion a justified preemptive strike.

Its also worth noting that Germany was getting most of its oil, rubber, grain from the USSR at this time, cutting off these supplies would seriously limit German major operations, meaning they probably would not be able to rush to Paris before the Soviets get to Berlin.

If I am Stalin why would I do that ? It is certain that Germany will get bogged down in a devastating and long war against the Anglo-French.

Better wait until both sides are weakened before joining one side with optimal terms. Or better yet when both sides are too weak finally end imperialism and unite Europe under the gentle mantle of socialism.

Just like in in good ol' days in 14-18 that brought the glorious first revolution.

The only risk is that Germany might lose sooner than expected the war against the more numerous Anglo-French forces but that's statistically unlikely.

So there's no need to worry comrade. Patience is the key for the salvation of the proletariat worldwide.

 

[Sunforged General]

You stated that Germany got most of its oil from the Soviet trade. It didn't. Germany acquired approximately 33M metric tonnes in the 1938-41 period. Only 0.9M came from Soviet trucks. That amounts to only about 2.7% of German oil up until it reaches the gates of Moscow. I do not believe that it would make that much more of an impact. Oil did not become an issue until 1942 when the Anglo-US strategic bombing campaign started to drop significant volumes of bombs.


This is simply not true an accurate reflection. Pre-war Germany had approximately 8.8M tonnes in storage and following the blockade, by mid 1940 this had only reduced by 1.3M (Tooze's Wages of destruction). The number presented in the Wikipedia table reflects only on imports from the Soviet Union vs internal production. It doesn't account for the huge volume of grain that was imported from Hungary, Romania and Yugoslavia. Tooze quotes the German statistical yearbook which is available online. I am sure that if you would like to better understand the grain situation in Germany in 1940, you could find the exact picture. Needless to say, Germany was in a fire situation, but the Soviet supplies were not critical.

Hitler him self stated that he needed to take the breadbasket of the Ukraine so Germany would not be starved out like in the last war. Implying Germany and its allies could not produce enough grain to feed all of Germany.

 

[Kovax]

Hitler him self stated that he needed to take the breadbasket of the Ukraine so Germany would not be starved out like in the last war. Implying Germany and its allies could not produce enough grain to feed all of Germany.

They couldn't, but the Soviet imports weren't all that significant compared to the other sources. Germany was going to run out of food sooner or later, it's just that losing the Soviet source would shorten that time a bit. The short-term idea was that Germany could take a significant portion of the food grown in the occupied territories of the Ukraine, never mind what that did to the residents. The long-term goal was to settle enough Germans there after the war for Germany to grow its own food....on other peoples' land. Either way, the long-term problem was that Germany didn't have sufficient oil for large-scale mechanized farming, otherwise it probably wouldn't have been so heavily dependent on food imports in the first place.

 

[Denkt]

From what I understand Stalin actually tried to form some sort of Alliance/continuation of the pact if Soviet union was allowed to increase its sphere of influence to include amongst other Iran and Iraq.

Also at that Point Germany was pretty much Soviet's only ally and the western countries did not have any love for the Soviets and could very well attacked Soviet union after Germany was defeated, atleast that is probably how Stalin would think.

Germany declearing war on Soviet meant that Soviet was not the aggressor and that probably looked alot better in the western Eyes, Soviet attacking Germany would make them look like an untrustworthy aggressor, especially combined what they had previously done.

 

[Rubidium]

To be fair, by that point the Western Allies would probably be willing to accept Soviet aid anyway, regardless of how the war started (and would certainly be willing to forget it afterwards).

But I agree that there's no way Stalin would do such a thing; he was very much of a "take as much as you can, safely, but don't rock the boat" mentality. A bigger question is what he would have done if the German invasion of France had failed (far more realistic than is generally acknowledged), and it looked like the Allies were going to win in 1940?

 

[Cavalry]

Remember the Soviet was in great danger with two front war when Germany-Japan-Italy form a anti comintern pact, and the Japanese already knock on its border as early as 1932! Soviet land is listed in Mein Kampf as goals!
That's why Soviet signed an alliance with France and Czech in 1935, but it is useless.

M-R Pact helped to stop that danger for a while, but it is only a Piece of paper! The Soviet still cannot find any ally. Japanese already attacked the Soviet again in 1939 with great force. The Japan threat only really gone after Pearl Harbor.

 

[yerm]

The western allies will never befriend Stalin prior to the fall of France. The pre war period is full of support for the opponents to communism both in the civil war and the aftermath, refusal to work with Stalin in efforts to safeguard or guarantee central Europeans without a direct border, and continued apprehension toward potential expansion of Russians further into the east.

The combination of France being crushed and the USSR being the defender housing the vast majority of Germany's aggression is the only reason Stalin got to befriend the west... until the moment the war was concluded and cold hostility came right back.

You put out a what if that has France still proud and intact, and has Germany NOT majority focused east, all that goes away. The west has absolutely zero interest in seeing the German rump state, psychotic as its leaders may have been, get replaced by an even further enlarged Russian Empire with their own brand of nuts (socialists) in their leadership.

 

[Sunforged General]

The western allies will never befriend Stalin prior to the fall of France. The pre war period is full of support for the opponents to communism both in the civil war and the aftermath, refusal to work with Stalin in efforts to safeguard or guarantee central Europeans without a direct border, and continued apprehension toward potential expansion of Russians further into the east.

The combination of France being crushed and the USSR being the defender housing the vast majority of Germany's aggression is the only reason Stalin got to befriend the west... until the moment the war was concluded and cold hostility came right back.

You put out a what if that has France still proud and intact, and has Germany NOT majority focused east, all that goes away. The west has absolutely zero interest in seeing the German rump state, psychotic as its leaders may have been, get replaced by an even further enlarged Russian Empire with their own brand of nuts (socialists) in their leadership.

Not entirely true. France did sign a mutual protection pact with the USSR around late 1935 early 1936. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Soviet_Treaty_of_Mutual_Assistance
Stalin was the one who threw it away when he signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

 

[Rubidium]

The western allies will never befriend Stalin prior to the fall of France. The pre war period is full of support for the opponents to communism both in the civil war and the aftermath, refusal to work with Stalin in efforts to safeguard or guarantee central Europeans without a direct border, and continued apprehension toward potential expansion of Russians further into the east.

The combination of France being crushed and the USSR being the defender housing the vast majority of Germany's aggression is the only reason Stalin got to befriend the west... until the moment the war was concluded and cold hostility came right back.

You put out a what if that has France still proud and intact, and has Germany NOT majority focused east, all that goes away. The west has absolutely zero interest in seeing the German rump state, psychotic as its leaders may have been, get replaced by an even further enlarged Russian Empire with their own brand of nuts (socialists) in their leadership.

The Norway debacle had already demonstrated that the war was going to be difficult (it had cost Chamberlain his job, after all), and the initial phases of the Battle of France/Benelux hadn't exactly given anyone confidence. If the Soviets had offered to intervene in exchange for some modest concessions, the Allies would have probably been willing (although those concessions would naturally be a lot less than what they got in 1945, when they occupied half of Europe).

However, again, there is no way Stalin would do this. Not only was he generally extremely cautious in his moves, he has a lot of other unfinished business to deal with. Historically, he took advantage of the Battle of France to formally annex the Baltic states, something that required a significant portion of the Soviet military to ensure everything went smoothly. That's a move that is both much safer than launching an unplanned invasion of a major power, and also more immediately beneficial.

 

[Cavalry]

Historically, he took advantage of the Battle of France to formally annex the Baltic states, something that required a significant portion of the Soviet military to ensure everything went smoothly. That's a move that is both much safer than launching an unplanned invasion of a major power, and also more immediately beneficial.

No, that was after the Fall of France. That's is an event that change balance of power, and require extraordinary actions. Both Soviet and the USA had actions follow that event.

No neutral country in the world wished Germany won France and become so huge and dangerous! Soviet was always on the danger, not in position to seek gain! (but they managed to get gains, only the necessary gains! They didn't try to capture part of China, for example)
The Phoney war can end in peace at any time. There was a reason it was called Phoney war!

If Germany had got into deep trouble in France, Soviet may take advantage to clear the German threat, but not after consider Japan and Italy's position! And even that is not enough, Stalin need to make sure which side USA choose! No one will let the Soviet capture Germany alone!