Speculation on steamers in VIP:R

[TheFlemishDuck]

I have often wondered whether or not speculation on stocks in Victoria was possible. What i basicly mean is buying goods when they are cheap, and selling them when they are a lot more expensive, to and from youre stockpile, for the goal of gaining money on saving's, or even more risky by gaining money on a loan.

However, i quickly came of the impression in my games that logicly all goods decrease in price over time because of constant increase of production, so that you would loose on youre investment.

But i noticed lately, checking some of the fluctuations of steamers,that this particular good can actually increase in price in certain periods. Afcourse its a hell of a work to make statistics of this on periods and prices after a number of games, but i noticed these situations in 3 seperate cases after checking save's of various times:

game 1:
price of steamers in:
1865: 466
1872: 618

game 2:
1858: 518
1865: 570

game 3:
1869: 219
1875: 540

In all these cases you could actually buy those steamers at their first date too, so it would have actually worked for speculation purposes. Game 3 was just ammazing, thats nearly 150% gain in 6 years.

Granted, this strategy is usually either only usefull for investing if you are a smaller, cash strapped nation, in which case this can actually be highly profitable. I only checked high priced goods, because it would be too tedious to do this with cheap priced goods as it is best to buy and sell these goods 1 per 1 for max profit, and you don't want to buy a hoard of them. It can also be somewhat usefull for a nation that produces steamers and doesn't want to sell them to cheaply.

I think the reason behind this is that steamers are produced earlier before most nations can produce them, and because VIP has Ai files that let a nation convert its old navy into a modern one, so prices might spike everytime a new type of steamer ship is activated.
Although i would need to run a few handsoff games to make a chart of the price over the years at yearly intervals in different games.

And, btw, seeing how many GP's tend to spamm new devissions in great wars, maybe i should look at the prices of rifles and artillery too when a major war starts.

 

[LlywelynII]

Granted, this strategy is usually either only usefull for investing if you are a smaller, cash strapped nation, in which case this can actually be highly profitable.

Might could be, if you worked out the parameters of just when the demand is going to shoot up (when the AI states rich enough to sport navies develop steamer tech & the lag time from there to when they purchase new ships) and how to jimmy it (the lag time on trading steamer tech to other states.)

You do have to figure in the likelihood for those 'storm destroys your steamer fleet' events, though.

Also, I'm not sure the spread and time involved really make it worthwhile for poor states. They're probably better off building factories and trading (with cash or land acquired via military expenditures) for techs like 'mechanical production' than holding a very small number of ships. Larger states could make it more worthwhile, but after a certain point, it's not really worth it for the player. You're making enough money anyway and this is more complicated.

I think the reason behind this is that

nations without the steamer tech are ahistorically barred from using steamers they purchase from foreign states. There's no demand for them before they can build units with them.

I'm sure the same thing applies to ship hulls, only moreso.

And, btw, seeing how many GP's tend to spamm new devissions in great wars, maybe i should look at the prices of rifles and artillery too when a major war starts.

.nods.

It should (but prolly doesn't) also apply to resources that should be increasingly consumed by a more affluent society (eg, as luxe cars come online, POP consumption and the price of oil and fuel should go up. However, since factory and state consumption of oil/fuel are minimal, I don't think I've ever noticed fuel being a profitable source of income in my games.)

 

[Anthropoid]

My understanding was that the economic system was strictly based on supply and demand. So having lots of steamer factories early on and then stockpiling them would seem to be the best way to "speculate" on them as a commodity. Keep your stockpile as high as possible for as long as possible.

The problem with buying them is that: as soon as you place an order, the price seems to go up. So while the first one you buy might be 10, the second one might be 12, then 13, then 14 etc. Thus, I don't think it would work if you were "speculating" in the true sense of buying and selling. Producing and stockpiling might work though. In fact, my observation with artillery production by Prussia early game is that it works.

I've observed that for raw materials that are abundant, stockpiling has little effect on prices. Stockpiling scarce raw materials may have some effect, but have not paid close enough attention. Stockpiling finished products (clothes, glass, firearms) _definitely_ increases prices as long as the volume on the world market is small (i.e., about 1 or 2). Once it goes above 2 the value of stockpiling seems to be negligible.

 

[deadmeat1471]

doesnt stockpiling have a negative effect on citizens abiity to purchase the good? i seem to remember reading something like that somewhere

 

[Snaake]

Probably, in that there's less of the good available on the WM.

But POPs don't buy steamers, or artillery for example.

 

[deadmeat1471]

Unambitious nobility .

 

[LlywelynII]

doesnt stockpiling have a negative effect on citizens abiity to purchase the good? i seem to remember reading something like that somewhere

IIRC, stockpiling forces your POPs to buy the good on the world market even if you produce it, forcing them to pay tarriffs (and higher prices, since you're limiting some of the supply.)

And unambitious nobility? I would say, bad capitalists

 

[Anthropoid]

IIRC, stockpiling forces your POPs to buy the good on the world market even if you produce it, forcing them to pay tarriffs (and higher prices, since you're limiting some of the supply.)

And unambitious nobility? I would say, bad capitalists

I thought that one's stockpile had nothing to do with one's POPS consumption? Don't they always buy off the world market?

 

[Noblejms]

No POPs always get their goods from you first before going into the WM. So if you're stockpiling goods, denying the outflow of merchandises to your POPs, they'll then buy goods from WM which translates into more tariffs for you. But they also end up poorer.

 

[Anthropoid]

I'm not sure that that is exactly right Jms. Here is the Wiki page I found, course you never know when it is inaccurate and not . . .

Domestic and international availability of goods
Trade in Victoria is always international. There is always a domestic market for the goods you produce in your factories, but the fact is that the system makes the POPs buy their desired goods from the world market. This means that if, for example, you are the world’s only producer of furniture and you don’t offer your stockpile onto the world market, then your POPs won’t ever get any of it. This situation, recall, increases their Militancy.

This means that stockpiling your goods can be a very, very bad thing. Though you may be tempted to keep the other countries from industrializing by not providing them with the materials to convert their POPs (such as furniture and clothing), you will also be robbing your POPs of goods they need to live a happy life. Remember, free trade is a good thing in Victoria.

It is, however, fine to stockpile certain goods. War materiel, for example, is not demanded by any POPs and is generally a good thing to stockpile as you do not want to be supplying the armies of your enemies. Clippers and Steamers are very well priced, but they are also good to keep off the world market if you can afford it, as it will stymie the attempts of other countries to build up their navies. Of course, you can always utilize the commodities in your stockpiles whenever you want.

http://www.paradoxian.org/vickywiki/index.php/Trade#Domestic_and_international_availability_of_goods

So my understanding is that POPs _always_ buy off the world market, never directly from their countries stockpiles. However, it is true that if the player is the primary producer of a product, and he/she is stockpiling (has set a ># that is higher than the current stockpile amount to prevent any from being sold for a period of time) then the availability of that commodity on the world market will go down and its price will go up, causing it to be more difficult if not impossible for POPs to purchase it.

I have not paid close attention to the commodities that are used by POPs, having mostly focused on stockpiling the military, industrial, and POP-evolvement products, but I tend to think that the situation where stockpiling stuff will have a negative impact on POPs will be fairly unusual and late game?