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What am I missing about the size of rebel force?

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I gained ownership of Corsica after a war and placed a garrison force of 3,000 infantry on the island. The island's population was about 21,000. During a rebel uprising, the size of the rebel army was 22,000. I guess every man, woman, child, and some of the local sheep could have taken up arms against me but it seems that the size of a rebel force should only be a percentage of the total population.

What am I missing in trying to figure the size of the army needed to have a reasonable chance to suppress a rebel.
 
Originally posted by ldaniel
I gained ownership of Corsica after a war and placed a garrison force of 3,000 infantry on the island. The island's population was about 21,000. During a rebel uprising, the size of the rebel army was 22,000. I guess every man, woman, child, and some of the local sheep could have taken up arms against me but it seems that the size of a rebel force should only be a percentage of the total population.

What am I missing in trying to figure the size of the army needed to have a reasonable chance to suppress a rebel.
Click to expand...

Population of a province is larger than the number indicated. I believe it's the number of the province capital
 
That's nothing, I had a 55k man army show up in Venice.:)
 
What determines the size of the initial rebel force? Does the resident army size, fort level, population of the city, stability or anything else affect the number of rebels that may appear? I would think that larger armies would decrease (discourage) the number of rebels. What I think I see in the games is the number of rebels is close to the size of the resident army. So, the larger the army, the more rebels appear. If this is the case, what would be the historic justification or might it be a way to challenge the human players?
Regards,
 
If you will notice when it says population, it denotes city population. You don't really think that when you colonize a province, you are only sending 100 colonists over to a virgin wilderness and expect them to survive? In truth you are probably sending over 1,000 colonists and only 100 of them would congregate in a small town that serves as the provincial center. So in a province with a 20k city, will probably have about 200k population spread out in the country side, more than enough to raise a 20k rebel army.
 
I wondered about this as well and the programme doesn't seem to take into account the number of locals i slaughter. ALthough the population growth is slowing i'd have thought the impact of me killing 100K people would have been quite considerable bearing in mind the low populations of areas in the 16th century.

Another rebel question...i've conquered/liberated a couple of provinces which have a 3% chance of rebellion which to me seems pretty low. Why am i getting about two revolts a year ? Am i unlucky or are the effects cumulative ?
 
The 3% revolt figure is (I believe) the chance per month like attrition so it is closer to 40% per year. The randoms can see a single province have uprisings three times a year while an adjacent one remains tranquil.
 
That's useful to know. Now factor in the probabilities based upon the number of adjacent provinces revolting and adding 2% to the risk :)
 
OK

3% nationalism + 2% for one adjacent revolting province = 5%

chances for at least 1 revolt in 1 year: 45,96%
chances for at least 1 revolt in 2 years: 70,80%
chances for at least 1 revolt in 10 years: 99,79%

but I´m usually able to lower the 'normal' revolt risks to 0, only leaving the nationalism, because with 10% revolt risk, there should be a revolt every 5-7 months.
 
There must be other factors influencing the revolt percents that aren't displayed in the interface such as when you have been at war for a long period of time. And possibly a cumulative factor that will cause several revolts to breakout at once. The revolts seem to occur in groups in my games. They also seem to occur repeatedly in the first couple of years after annexation due to nationalism.

All of these possible affects (if true) are not displayed through the interface and may cause some confusion (fustration) for gamers.
 
Thanks for the info, I will try and notice when the 'war tiredness' should be listed. I think what may be happening with the clustering of revolts is related to the random number generation. I have noticed with war results, colonization attempts and revolts, a tendency for a string of good or bad results to occur. If the game is reloaded from a recent save, the good or bad streak of luck usually does not occur. The results at the time seem rather extreme, like colonization success attempts 8 times in a row with only a 40% chance for each. And 8 revolts occurring in a 3 month period when you would expect about 2 per year.

Perhaps there is a problem with the random number generator?
 
Originally posted by Mr Dimbleby
That's nothing, I had a 55k man army show up in Venice.:)
Click to expand...

HA!.....I had 78k pop up in Kazan when my Russian bear owned it. :D
 
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