Should Low Franconian(Flemish), really be the largest minority in Pembroke? I would have thought that it would be Welsh, with a large Flemish minority, but not the largest.
From my research it would be a Welsh majority with like 20-35% English and then some Flemish lets be generous and say like 10% max.
I made a brief post about English colonisation of Wales in the original thread and these are the best estimates on numbers. Matthew Frank Steven (the academic) skimmed over his estimates for Pembrokeshire and Glamorgan so those numbers are my discernment, but they align with his general overview of the regions at specifically this period in time.
I will say I have not looked too much into the Flemish communities past them existing in places walled off towns like Cardigan.
Original Comment with the source
Though I liked the post and found it really useful in some aspects, I did have some concerns in relation to the population figures given and the source material in the post made last year, namely due to the methodology used and frankly the overlooking of Wales within (not a criticism of Vispian at all, more the authors of the study, something they themselves note!). Its why I didn't really mention it at the time, though its a decent gauge of rough trends, I don't feel it best go deeper here though, it does the trick, I just feel it leaves a lot to be said about the newly conquered territories in 1282.
Notwithstanding this, it may be possible to roughly gauge the percentage of Flemish population utilising the figure given for the region of Southern Pembrokeshire within, so its somewhat useful, though some other problems arise as to the EUV location shape vs study area, but I'll mention that towards the end.
Pembrokeshire and the Flemish
The Three Waves:
What we do know is that there were 3 waves of settlements in the 12th century, the first two being in 1108 and 1113 by King Henry the 1st and the 3rd taking place in 1155 under King Henry the 2nd. What is known by surviving records is that the first plantation is attested to by William of Malmesbury to have consisted of approximately 2500 Flemings, planted into modern day Pembrokeshire around the year 1108, instigated by Henry the 1st likely upon the disbanding of mercenaries from Flanders.
(Source 1) (Source 2)
The second wave of Flemish colonisation around 1113 seems to have been the most significant in the wake of a flooding event in the low countries, with many individuals such as Wizo Flandrensis (Wizo the Fleming) leaving the overpopulated region for greener pastures. Many landholdings established in southern Pembrokeshire as a result and the near mass expulsion of native Welsh from the cantref of Rhos appears to have occurred around this time, it is likely that nearly double the original colony or some 4,000 individuals came during this wave, enabling the wholesale change in the demographic landscape of this portion of the county.
Not much is known about the third wave of colonisation in 1155, though the following is written of it:
When Henry Plantagenet succeeded his cousin Stephen in 1155, first acts was collect all the Flemish condottieri he could lay his hands on and send them into West Wales, where he deemed they would be out of the way, surrounded as they would be by the Welsh and the sea.
The High Degree of Flemish Losses:
It should be noted however that the Flemings were highly utilised in battle against the native Welsh owing to the nature of their plantation and there were a high number of mercanaries and warrior like men amongst them. The Flemish therefore likely suffered heavy casualties in the
Battles of Crug Mawr and
Mwnt and other such battles of the period between Marcher Lords and Native Welsh that must be taken into account.
Any assessment of the population growth of these waves of Flemings of Pembrokeshire vs the baseline population growth of the Kingdom of England should in turn be quite a fair bit lower owing to the contention and violent nature of the region,
especially when noting that the Flemish population of places such as Rhos were devastated in 1137 by roaming Welsh armies following their victory over the Anglo-Normans and Flemish at Crug Mawr. Furthermore, in relation to the losses inflicted on Flemish soldiers in such battles, the following is told of the Battle of Crug Mawr in relation to both the Norman
and Flemish invaders:
Grufudd defeats Stephen of Cardigan and Robert Fitz Martin of Cemaes at Cardigan Bridge, where the Foreign Colony is almost exterminated.
Rough Estimates of Total Wave Populations:
Some estimates have been thrown around placing the total settlement from these three waves at approximately 10,000 individuals (Between all three waves in 1108, 1113 and 1155), though again I believe this should be reduced to some 7,500 people total, as no accurate accounts have been made of other settlements apart from the first. It is also likely that the third wave would have been of a similar if not a far smaller size to the first, having comprised more of violent mercenaries that the crown wanted nothing to do with.
If we can state that the first wave would have been 2500 people based on the account of William of Malmesbury and that the second was the largest and third the smallest, then the other 5000 can be divided into 3500 for the second wave and 1500 for the third. This would give us a rough baseline of waves to assess growth by parallel to the population of England at the time. We can then try and assess the percentage of Flemish peoples within the area based off of the number listed in the study raised by
@Vispian which was 34,699.
English Population vs Each Wave (By Year):
This section utilises
the following site as a baseline for population growth, if anybody else wants to try with any other sources feel free. I’ll first note the estimated population of England at the time as well as the rough number of Flemish settlers.
Wave 1: 1108 – Estimated population of England: 1,940,000
Some accurate figures for this wave stating 2,500.
Wave 2: 1113 – Estimated population of England: 2,000,000
Likely the largest wave, no accurate figures, but let’s say it’s larger than the first wave at 3500.
Wave 3: 1155 – Estimated population of England: 2,540,000
Likely the smallest wave, seemingly only mercenaries, so we can call it 1500.
And the end date of 1290:
Population of England in 1290 : 4,750,000
Seems to be that the rounded average rate of population growth for England per year is somewhere in the region of +0.493% (1108-1290), +0.490% (1113-1290) and +0.465% (1155-1290) respectively for the start dates of waves 1, 2 and 3 to the year 1290 (Not a mathematician, please feel free to respond and correct!).
This can be used to roughly gauge the growth in relation the population of England. Though these population estimates for England could be used as bases for population growth in the Flemish community of Pembrokeshire for each wave of colonisation, this figure should be cut by about a third I would say to account for the enormous losses in battle over the years, hostile nature of the environment, overwhelmingly male nature of settlers, eradication of settlements etc.
If each wave is assessed as growing commensurate with the rates between 1108 and 1290, 1113 and 1290 and 1155 and 1290 as that of the Kingdom of England, the Flemish populations for each wave would be somewhat in the area of 6,118, 8,314 and 2,806 respectively, however, in cutting it by a third to account for the above, what we would be left with is the following:
1st Wave - 1108: 2500 settlers at the noted rate and reduced by 1/3rd would be around 4,037
2nd Wave - 1113: 3500 settlers at the noted rate and reduced by 1/3rd would be around 5,487.
3rd Wave - 1155: 1500 settlers at the noted rate and reduced by 1/3rd would be around 1,852.
This would give a population somewhere in the region of 11,376.
Given the population of 34,699 in 1290 noted in the study referenced by
@Vispian, this would be some 32-33% the population of the area, though given assimilation into the English plurality of the region, I would hazard a guess of some
30% on the safe side, compared to probably around 45% English (to which the Flemings were assimilating to) and 25% Welsh (if that).
Location Size and Shape Problem:
Though this raises further problems, as the diocese noted in
@Vispian 's study only covers the following area (Image 1) whereas the Image 2 is roughly approximate to the location of Pembroke as it appears in-game (at current):
This discounts all populations of the other lordships in the area such as Narberth, Laugharne, St Clears and Ystlwyf as their populations seemingly wouldn’t appear in the 34,699 figure given in the study noted, so 30% for the region shown would be far too high.
I have twice previously suggested the
reshaping of the location or
addition of another location (
Source 2) which would perhaps better reflect the demographic nature of the Pembroke location and division between the majority Welsh and majority Anglo-Norman/Flemish so as to accurately reflect the colonised nature of the south of the county, and this may also assist in making the population of such a location more accurate as well as better reflect the percentage of Flemings present (Though ofc I wouldnt want to push Dave any further on the topic, he's already represented Wales far better than I think any of us could have imagined).
