Werewolf CII: From the Files of Police Squad

[johho888]

3 pack and standard ABC-pattern would mean Montagues hunted night 1, 4, 7 and that would imply Paendrag hunted himself so no, I don't think it's 3 packs.

2 packs with standard ABAB-pattern doesn't fit.

2 packs with ABBA-pattern would mean Montagues hunted nigh 1, 4, 5, 8. This fits better with what we know. In that case the no-kill on night 4 could be a turned Montague but also the starting packs could be 4+1 rather than 3+2 in which case there is an original Montague out there.

@GM: would you tell us if a dead wolf was turned?

 

[trespoe]

Okay, I think we now know there were three packs at the start. I think, unless I am reading this wrong.

Montague hunted night one because Jacob was killed by the hunter during the kill. We also know a Montague was hunted on night 7, thus meaning that someone not a Montague hunted on an odd night. If there were only two packs, Montague wolves would get odd starting night one and French wolves would get even nights starting with night 2. If there were two, then Montague wolves should have hunted last night. Unless they got really pissed at Paen and committed fratricide, then we have three packs.

Thus we have an unknown pack out there. Am I reading this wrong? Perhaps the Montague's were destroyed tonight unless they got a cursed.

Is there a possibility of a third pack?

EDIT: Damn you, sir...

Either that or an ABBA hunt pattern. I wouldn't discount anything since Kriszo made the unequal packs in his game.

edit: johho'd again.

 

[johho888]

The ABBA pattern would fit with randakar's post just before he died (EDIT before night 4) that he took responsibility for who his pack hunted that night.

 

[EUROO7]

In that case, what we have here is a randomised hunt pattern.

That is, both (or all three, if there are three packs) send a hunt order every day and a dice decides who hunts.

@johho: Or maybe he was bluffing and didn't know with certainty that his pack was indeed hunting that night.

 

[johho888]

In that case, what we have here is a randomised hunt pattern.

That is, both (or all three, if there are three packs) send a hunt order every day and a dice decides who hunts.

You could be right but I think a ABBA pattern is more likely. Does anyone remember what hunt pattern walrus used in his earlier games?

There are way too many dead goodies for this to be a 3 pack game.

 

[AOK. 11]

So there is really no way to know. Great.

At least we have another wolf and a culty to look at. Lets see what we find. Now that the weekend is here I can devote more time to this game.

 

[walrus]

@GM: would you tell us if a dead wolf was turned?

A turned wolf would indeed be noted as such in the update

 

[johho888]

So there is really no way to know. Great.

At least we have another wolf and a culty to look at. Lets see what we find. Now that the weekend is here I can devote more time to this game.

From walrus last game we can see he likes to mess with hunt patterns...

There was pack A (Umbrella), pack B (US Govt.), and Lemeard (Pack C).
The other neutrals had nothing to do with Lemeard as far as I know.

Hunt order for pack A (what they were told) would have been ABBABB. (Them being A)
Hunt order for pack B was ABAABA.
In reality hunt order was ABCABC, which probably was what Lemeard was told.

They changed after night 2 when Lemeard died. The village never even got a chance to get confused by the hunt order changing because the hunt order became ABABAB as people were expecting. But in reality there had been a change.

 

[walrus]

I was not proud of that game johho o

Shambles with a capital S

 

[johho888]

@johho: Or maybe he was bluffing and didn't know with certainty that his pack was indeed hunting that night.

That was what I assumed until now. I just noticed that unless it is a randomized hunt then it is likely an ABBA pattern and if so what randakar said would fit.

Anyway, which pack hunts when doesn't really matter that much. AOK might be able to read something from who a pack targets but I can't. The only thing it is important for - for me - is for keeping track of no-kills and estimate pack strengths.

For now we know the Frechies are the stronger pack and we should be focusing our analysis on finding them. If there are 4, 3 or only 2 frog eaters doesn't really matter right now. I just like trying to puzzle together what happened and how even when I don't need to know.

 

[johho888]

I was not proud of that game johho o

Shambles with a capital S

But you obviously learnt from the experience and feedback the players gave you. For instance we get to know what pack a baddie is from in this game which makes it much more fun being a goodie and trying to figure things out.

My first game was a unbalanced disaster even though Thistletooth, of all people, seemed to look back on it with fond memories. You host and you learn and then hopefully you make better games.

 

[trespoe]

That was what I assumed until now. I just noticed that unless it is a randomized hunt then it is likely an ABBA pattern and if so what randakar said would fit.

Anyway, which pack hunts when doesn't really matter that much. AOK might be able to read something from who a pack targets but I can't. The only thing it is important for - for me - is for keeping track of no-kills and estimate pack strengths.

For now we know the Frechies are the stronger pack and we should be focusing our analysis on finding them. If there are 4, 3 or only 2 frog eaters doesn't really matter right now. I just like trying to puzzle together what happened and how even when I don't need to know.

Then I think there are a couple of things that should be addressed.

1. what is going on with night 3. White Daimon claimed in the thread to have been hunted that night but was blessed. Did the next group hunt him again? He would make a great candidate for a turned wolf (yes, blessed and cursed) if it is true he was blessed. Why would the wolves then walk away from him?

2. It is interesting to note that the dead baddies have been hunted with only 2 exceptions: Randakar, who was outed, and everyone ended up voting for. And Slinky, who was a lowly cultist. (but still valuable for parity, especially if Montague wolves all die, they could make contact with the Frenchies). Would the frenchy's vote Slinky for the alibi if they knew he was going to die anyway?

3. There really isn't much in the voting records since few baddies have been lynched or run up. Close votes have usually ended in a tie or the 2nd also dies later (reis day 2), or becomes murky (randakar's outing, Slinky being a cultist, etc)
A. Randakar voted Lemeard day 2, but Lemeard was in no danger.
B. Paendrag voted Split day 5, but it was an early vote, a few others joined, but it still would have needed a few more votes to become real.
III. Slinky could be claimed to have saved Torn day 5 with his vote on Punky. But would he do it to save a packmate? or setting Torn up as a possible lynch target since everyone already suspects him?

 

[trespoe]

I will be brave and put out an early vote. There are several players lurking in the back. Adamus, Ciryandor, Jopi, enkhuush,.... yeah...

Vote Ciryandor

I know what I said before about him using random numbers for hunts, and looking at him for sid's death. Randakar's claim about choosing sid just seemed too... easy.

Besides, I am sure everyone is waiting for the JL or AOK to give them a target. I will make my own.

 

[EUROO7]

Vote cyriandor

Reason: I'm thinking he might be a baddie.

 

[k-59]

Why isn't Torn dead yet?

Vote torn

 

[walrus]

Ciryandor isn't playing trespoe, he's been subbed

 

[EUROO7]

Unvote Ciryandor

Reason: I'm thinking he might've been subbed.

 

[johho888]

Ciryandor isn't playing trespoe, he's been subbed

trespoe was subbed by Syber_Sid v2.0 who was subbed by trespoe v2.0. What has Ciryandor to do with subs? He is playing himself completely unplugged and unsubbed, isn't he?

 

[k-59]

trespoe was subbed by Syber_Sid v2.0 who was subbed by trespoe v2.0. What has Ciryandor to do with subs? He is playing himself completely unplugged and unsubbed, isn't he?

Nope he is reis now.

 

[walrus]

trespoe was subbed by Syber_Sid v2.0 who was subbed by trespoe v2.0. What has Ciryandor to do with subs? He is playing himself completely unplugged and unsubbed, isn't he?

trespoe voted for Ciry. And uh....reis is now subbing in for Ciry.