Werewolf CIV : When the saints go marching in

[joebthegreat]

@Orange Yoshi: So you honestly want to go on record and say johho888 was a terrible choice for possibly lynching? The Sedracus lynch had valid arguments to it, you weren't listening but he made several baddie tells yesterday BEFORE the crazy spy claim. Adamus and Jolt weren't great targets (oh wait you voted Adamus), but Sedracus and johho888 were fine targets and YOU wanted to move the vote so one of them wouldn't be under pressure. Does this make you a wolf or a fool? I don't know, because I never can tell with you. You just always look like a wolf to me.

@randakar: Why Adamus instead of Boris ze Spider? Because I can only choose one person to go after and I had gone after Boris ze Spider on day 1. Bad choice, I'm sorry. It happens.

It's day 3, I'm not going to be nabbing wolves with every little analyzed morsel. Luck is a factor. Villagers do wolfish things. There still wasn't much info to go on. There's plenty of info to go on now. Also don't insult my inability to 100% nab wolves with information on only 1/4 of the packs at the time. You got lucky with Eternaly_Lost, nothing more to that.

Would you have HONESTLY stuck to Sedracus considering his "spy" statement? I hate when people over think these things. Simply lynch who has been outed, and then lynch the people behind the outing if they were wrong. A wolf is going to lose the game for himself and his pack if he tries anything cute with the outings and you follow this simple rule.

My mistaken votecount was made after deadline, I don't know exactly what you're trying to point out with it though? It was made in an extreme rush.

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So anyway, I have two questions:

1). Why has it been, that every day, walrus gets enough votes to be in the running, and then simply falls from the conversation? He hasn't stayed up there for very long on day 1 or day 2. It almost seems like there's a group out there trying to help him get out of the public eye.

2). Why does Orange Yoshi continue to say johho888 was a terrible target? Did he even read johho888's sweating constantly claiming "if I was a baddie my suggestion for an inactive would have gone somewhere" obsession. It seemed like he was trying desperately to prove his innocence and get people to stop voting him. johho888 was a GREAT target! Orange Yoshi disputes this after it is already known johho888 was a wolf. Why?

 

[Raczynski]

Vote k-59 'cos he voted me yesterday

I think I've forgotten you were playing in this game

Would you have HONESTLY stuck to Sedracus considering his "spy" statement? I hate when people over think these things. Simply lynch who has been outed, and then lynch the people behind the outing if they were wrong. A wolf is going to lose the game for himself and his pack if he tries anything cute with the outings and you follow this simple rule.

There are good outings and bad outings. Sedracus' outing was extremely bad. He wanted us to believe 1) he was a spy 2) he got a wolf 3) That wolf was a person who just HAPPENED to be in the lead together with him. Isn't that a bit too much of a coincidence? That was an obvious wolf being obvious. Village gets nothing from following obvious wolves.

 

[J. Passepartout]

Walrus strikes me as either a baddy who never gets quite enough votes because heis pack is helping and/or all the baddies have better targets, or a goodie who is getting baddy/ignorant votes and then a better target comes up. I find him suspicious but haven't seen/thought about enough information to have him on the let's vote this guy now list. kehaar looks like a good lynch to me, there was someone else, let me scroll around to remind myself of who it was, oh yeah, Orange Yoshi could be a baddy or his usual poorly played self. sooooo

VOTE KEHAAR

There are other good names being mentioned, but these are the ones jumping out at me, and some of the other suggestions are folks I don't recall playing with and therefore am not familiar with their style

 

[Jopi]

Hmm... We seem to have like 50-50 chance of lynching a baddie if we just pick a target at random. What this means is that bandwagoning is a smart thing to do! From your own perspective: it's quite likely you'll kill a baddie and thus acquire some positive karma. Hmmh, a funny situation indeed... Now it would be nice to get someone from the postulated fourth pack. Kehaar has received a couple of votes already for goodish reasons. He did vote E_L, but I'm not looking for another Schismatic here, thus:

Vote Kehaar

 

[randakar]

@randakar: Why Adamus instead of Boris ze Spider? Because I can only choose one person to go after and I had gone after Boris ze Spider on day 1. Bad choice, I'm sorry. It happens.

It's day 3, I'm not going to be nabbing wolves with every little analyzed morsel. Luck is a factor. Villagers do wolfish things. There still wasn't much info to go on. There's plenty of info to go on now. Also don't insult my inability to 100% nab wolves with information on only 1/4 of the packs at the time. You got lucky with Eternaly_Lost, nothing more to that.

Don't feel insulted, it wasn't intended as one. Your analysis usually is pretty sound, it just .. hasn't actually found you wolves yet.
Trust me, I have more than made my share of mistakes based on analysis. This game I've been doing pretty good, but ..

Would you have HONESTLY stuck to Sedracus considering his "spy" statement? I hate when people over think these things. Simply lynch who has been outed, and then lynch the people behind the outing if they were wrong. A wolf is going to lose the game for himself and his pack if he tries anything cute with the outings and you follow this simple rule.

Like I said - I might have fallen for that one, too. No hard feelings at all.

My mistaken votecount was made after deadline, I don't know exactly what you're trying to point out with it though? It was made in an extreme rush.

I didn't see a real final official votecount from the GM, your votecount was the closest thing, I believe. So I used it.

So anyway, I have two questions:

1). Why has it been, that every day, walrus gets enough votes to be in the running, and then simply falls from the conversation? He hasn't stayed up there for very long on day 1 or day 2. It almost seems like there's a group out there trying to help him get out of the public eye.

Walrus has popped up in my record of the game too.
As for why .. do you think he is a baddie? I wouldn't be surprised at all..

2). Why does Orange Yoshi continue to say johho888 was a terrible target? Did he even read johho888's sweating constantly claiming "if I was a baddie my suggestion for an inactive would have gone somewhere" obsession. It seemed like he was trying desperately to prove his innocence and get people to stop voting him. johho888 was a GREAT target! Orange Yoshi disputes this after it is already known johho888 was a wolf. Why?

To be fair I know how I feel when people start voting me sometimes. Baddie or no
But yeah, I guess that that one is a good question. I don't follow OY's logic very much either.
The problem with him however is that that means he has a great excuse every time he fail votes as a baddie ..

Walrus strikes me as either a baddy who never gets quite enough votes because heis pack is helping and/or all the baddies have better targets, or a goodie who is getting baddy/ignorant votes and then a better target comes up. I find him suspicious but haven't seen/thought about enough information to have him on the let's vote this guy now list.

Same here

kehaar looks like a good lynch to me, there was someone else, let me scroll around to remind myself of who it was, oh yeah, Orange Yoshi could be a baddy or his usual poorly played self. sooooo

Right now there are a lot of votes piled on him though. I think the count isn't even looking a little close right now.
I'm not sure what to make of that. On top of him being a newbie, I don't like having insane bandwagons.
And yeah, I know that that can sometimes get abused by baddies, but ..

As an aside - who is Kaetje subbing for, again?

 

[unmerged(280966)]

As the accused, I have the right to know why I'm being voted.

(also because I'm too busy to check all the posts carefully)

So please can you tell me?

 

[J. Passepartout]

What is the vote count? I'm going to UNVOTE KEHAAR and VOTE WALRUS if it is so safely on kehaar at the moment.

 

[joebthegreat]

Why are people voting you Kehaar?

Here's what I can find:

I've had no time to keep track of things here...

So I'll vote Adamus for good measure.

.. which breaks the tie, and pushes Adamus even further ahead.
Despite my arguments against his lynch
I know how this pattern ends. Every time it happens I turn out correct, and it's another villager dead.

Unvote Sedracus
Vote Jolt

Much better candidate than Adamus, despite me not really wanting to lynch a newcomer early.

Basically you voted one goodie instead of a different goodie.

The only think I can find on you is your day 1 vote against Adamus to protect EUROO7, but that's not exactly damning evidence at this point.

So whoever is on the Kehaar boat is being unreasonable right now.

 

[jacob-Lundgren]

Not really in position to read all of this quote wars stuff. Going to assume some of it has to do with people voting kehaar and vote them also. tally ho!


vote kehaar

 

[Rysz]

Would you have HONESTLY stuck to Sedracus considering his "spy" statement? I hate when people over think these things. Simply lynch who has been outed, and then lynch the people behind the outing if they were wrong. A wolf is going to lose the game for himself and his pack if he tries anything cute with the outings and you follow this simple rule.

You might want to read the previous Lite game, both for your own entertainment and for the lesson about outings.

There are good outings and bad outings. Sedracus' outing was extremely bad. He wanted us to believe 1) he was a spy 2) he got a wolf 3) That wolf was a person who just HAPPENED to be in the lead together with him. Isn't that a bit too much of a coincidence? That was an obvious wolf being obvious. Village gets nothing from following obvious wolves.

Racz actually says wise things here. Sedracus' outing was clearly not genuine. For all the above reasons, and also because it was 10 minutes before deadline, which is really TOO late for a good outing.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

2). Why does Orange Yoshi continue to say johho888 was a terrible target? Did he even read johho888's sweating constantly claiming "if I was a baddie my suggestion for an inactive would have gone somewhere" obsession. It seemed like he was trying desperately to prove his innocence and get people to stop voting him. johho888 was a GREAT target! Orange Yoshi disputes this after it is already known johho888 was a wolf. Why?

You can't go back in time after knowing someone's role and say, "Yeah, this person was a really good/really bad lynch target."

They either were a good target or a bad target. Johho was a bad target. His turning out to be a wolf does not change that.

 

[randakar]

Basically you voted one goodie instead of a different goodie.

The only think I can find on you is your day 1 vote against Adamus to protect EUROO7, but that's not exactly damning evidence at this point.

So whoever is on the Kehaar boat is being unreasonable right now.

Meaning, this bandwagon is an excellent scapegoat for baddies. Let's pick one of the bandwagoneers at random, and see what happens:

Vote Jacob-lundgren

 

[the_hdk]

ill follow the mob

vote Kehaar

 

[Najs]

ill follow the mob

vote Kehaar

Hiding in bandwagons, are we? I'd be tempted to toss you a vote, but it might work better if randy gets some support on his side...

Vote jacob-Lundgren

 

[Ciryandor]

reis, FFS please do votecounts because we'll need them later.

 

[Raczynski]

ill follow the mob

vote Kehaar

Really? Someone please explain why we need an unopposed bandwagon.
Vote the_hdk

 

[Boris ze Spider]

Although i think Jack is still very suspicous, this gang feels more suspicous. Unvote Jackpot15, vote jacob-Lundgren

 

[randakar]

Really? Someone please explain why we need an unopposed bandwagon.
Vote the_hdk

I like this vote. I really do. I want more votes on him if at all possible.


However, one very important thing occured to me just now over dinner.
First, a question: Do we have any evidence of the Satanic pack's existance other than what Sedracus told us?

The thing is, when Sedracus made that post, at first it said something completely different. Something about how Lurken must have been lying because Sedracus was in that pack and Lurken was not, or something along those lines. When it changed I thought it was just him realizing the packnames were different. But .. now I am not so sure.

Can anyone here independently confirm that there was a Satanic pack in the initial PM round??

This is rather important. It would be completely in character for our good friend Sedracus to just make up a pack for the lulz in an attempt to mess with everybody's heads. If he did our idea of what the village's situation is in reality needs heavy adjustment..

 

[reis91]

Alas! I was trapped in the land of Orthodoxy, Russia, preaching to the masses about the glory of God and St George! Yet I could not reach the Holynet for free as had been foretold to me! It seems satanic Dragons were at work. I have at last slain most of them, and returned by one tame one to my other land of England, and so can intervene in this mighty council.

You are lucky I could only come online after this post. So, enkhuush and EURO need subs.

Kaetje is subbing for Enkhuush

One more sub needed please.

 

[joebthegreat]

You might want to read the previous Lite game, both for your own entertainment and for the lesson about outings.

There were a lot of failures in that game... randakar made himself unnecessarily suspicious before the outing business even came up, and reis going inactive was just plain fail. The village didn't look carefully enough. In an odd situation with two outings you need to think: "who outed first"?, "is the second outing by the first person who was outed, or by a third party"?, and "does it make sense for this many wolves to publicly get involved"?

AOK. 11 did everything right in that game WELL before his suicide bombing ever came into play. randakar made the correct arguments. randakar had good clear logical reasons for why AOK. 11 would have to be the baddie in the situation, instead of BOTH him and trespoe. randakar was already discredited by AOK. 11 though, and reis epic failed his JL in their hour of need.

Even though AOK. 11 did everything right, a good village paying attention to details should have seen through his ruse. It is a very VERY risky trick to try and pull on a village. With a more active JL I doubt he would have succeeded.

In that game the JL entirely died in one sweep, partly due to events entirely out of the JLs or the wolf pack's control.

In this game ONE PERSON was "outed" and that was the whole story.

One wolf for one person is a good general trade. You lynch the outed person and then you lynch the person doing the outing is a GOOD GENERAL RULE. That doesn't mean that in odd specific situations you shouldn't give it more thought, but Jolt and then Sedracus died anyway.

(Anyway, our outcome was alright. The biggest problem I have is when people lynch the person doing the outing, it turns out the person doing the outing was a goodie, and then they never seem to get around to lynching the person who was outed. I swear I've seen that in at least a couple big games, and it makes me RAAAAAAAGE)

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You can't go back in time after knowing someone's role and say, "Yeah, this person was a really good/really bad lynch target."

They either were a good target or a bad target. Johho was a bad target. His turning out to be a wolf does not change that.

Dude seriously?

I CAN look back knowing someones role and look to see who was protecting him... that is in fact the entire point of analysis.

YOU outright defended johho888 and Sedracus. that is CLEAR. You complained about who was currently up in the running and then you made your vote the goodie who was up in the running instead of either of the baddies.

johho888 was suspicious for the following reason:

"Anyway, the lack of enthusiasm for my idea should give you an indication of the kind of leverage my group has. Not even I voted an inactive. Does it look like I have a wolf pack backing me?"

Which was totally unnecessary. He was losing his nerve under pressure. Not common for johho888. Definitely odd. Definitely worth a vote.

Sedracus was suspicious for the following reason:

"In the face of many people reasoning the same thing..." and then he hopped on a bandwagon.

That is possibly the best clue in the entire game of werewolf that somebody is a baddie. Jumping on a vote train while taking no personal responsibility for the outcome, but leaving it to other people and "what they reasoned".

So yes Orange Yoshi, at the time of your comment both johho888 and Sedracus made sense as lynch targets, and you chose to go after Adamus instead, claiming that it made no sense to vote for Sedracus or johho888.

Whatever you say now, it was outright protection of them when you did it. You outright protected two wolves from two different packs with one vote. You could easily be in either one of those packs.

And even if you were right, and they were terrible lynch choices, that doesn't change the fact that your vote and your argument helped them.