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vote enkhuush, I dislike random votes, and the odds of you being Seer twice in a row...
When this game started I was half expecting that to happen .. but no.
Also, I am half expecting drxav to be a wolf this game based on pretty much the same argument.
The trouble is, it's pretty weak. Jacob uses random assignment for handing out roles (at least, that's what he did last game), so this type of argument is unfortunately a logical fallacy.
Well, since you've been a goodie for quite a few games now, statistically you have to be a wolf sometime soon.
That's a logical fallacy.
If you roll a 6 sided die 10 times, and none of the rolls was a 1, what is the chance for the next roll to be a one?
I'm saying the answer is to that question is "1 in 6". Apparently you believe otherwise.
*shrug*
To be honest this conversation isn't terribly interesting
edit: This, however, is.
That's a logical fallacy.
If you roll a 6 sided die 10 times, and none of the rolls was a 1, what is the chance for the next roll to be a one?
I'm saying the answer is to that question is "1 in 6". Apparently you believe otherwise.
*shrug*
To be honest this conversation isn't terribly interesting
edit: This, however, is.
Odds are that if you roll a 6 sided dice 10 times you should get a 1 at least 1 time. The chance per individual roll stays the same, but it becomes more and more statistically improbable that you're not a wolf with each roll.
Of course. But since it's day 1, I've found my reason good enough. Had it been any other day I would never go for it.
a) It hasn't been a 1 ten times in a row. I was a wolf in a Lite game 4 games back, you see ;-)
b) This post of yours proves that you suck at math. Sure, it -sounds- logical, but the previous 9 rolls are completely irrelevant to the outcome of the 10th roll. That's why it's called "random".
(Why I even bother to reply to this is beyond me. I am not a wolf. Simples.)
Lets do something very very crazy here..... actually wanted to vote Randy using Lord Strange school of thought (ha get that all you newcomers...), but after rereading this a bit. Vote Najs for his lack of statistical abilities....
a) It hasn't been a 1 ten times in a row. I was a wolf in a Lite game 4 games back, you see ;-)
b) This post of yours proves that you suck at math. Sure, it -sounds- logical, but the previous 9 rolls are completely irrelevant to the outcome of the 10th roll. That's why it's called "random".
I hope that you are aware of the limitations of electronic-based random number generators, though.
Vote Eternally Lost
Because he has no votes
Do you intend to throw your vote away today, then?
I bet I know them better than you.
Besides, if Jacob uses random.org .. they are using pretty good sources of entropy. Good enough that those limitations you mention are basically irrelevant.
edit: To be precise -
- good enough for me.random.org said:
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