Werewolf Lite CCXV - My Little Werewolf: Analysis is Magic

[Ciryandor]

*munches on popcorn*

 

[EUROO7]

*munches on popcorn*

Where've you been?

 

[Najs]

This is ridiculous. We. Will. Not. Lynch. EURO. Today.
We had an obvious rescue operation yesterday. Enkhuush (or Kiwi, or both) is a wolf and must die.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

This is ridiculous. We. Will. Not. Lynch. EURO. Today.
We had an obvious rescue operation yesterday. Enkhuush (or Kiwi, or both) is a wolf and must die.

We had a rescue of EURO and AOK before that, I do believe. If I can console myself over the dual blow of a loss in the NRL grand final and the loss of DC superstar, I'll take a look at enkhuush. I also hope to look at whether AOK atually had a decent reason to be suspicious of reis, because that came out of nowhere from where I was sitting. Maybe there was something in those last minutes that made it reasonable, maybe not. All I know is that unless enkhuush is a wolf, it's not us they were saving, and so there must have been some other intent.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Sp I've gone back and looked at the reis run up, as I had assumed AOK had some reason for believing reis was a wolf. With half an hour to deadline, he has no votes. He then makes this post:

My fellow students of logic, here I present you case C, a false dilemma fallacy. You were being led to believe in two options, which are to believe in Xeno, and vote drxav, or to not believe in Xeno, and vote Kiwi. However, there are more than two options. There is the option where Enkhuush, the second runner, is actually a wolf, and Xeno is saving him by getting everyone to go against him and lynch Kiwi. There is also the option that Xeno is a wolf, and neither of the three are wolves, in which case he keeps his packmates out of our reach while presenting us with false dillemmas.

The most logical choice, from a villager POV, is to vote Xeno.

unvote Enkhuush
vote Xenomorph

And this one.

Go on Xeno, change that hunt order. I'm already studying who could be your packmates, and intend to divulge my suspicions before the deadline.

Nothing too unreasonable there. I suspect people were being presented with false dilemmas, and if you identify the one trying to pull the strings you can cut them. Of course, posting wordy analysis shortly before deadline is its own form of string pulling. How does the village react?

Unvote drxav
Vote reis

You are spouting bs and are a wolf. I never said anything about two options, or that everyone should follow me. I said what I thought, and I did not care if any of you listened or not.

Unvote Xeno
Vote Reis

ALL VOTE REIS

REIS VOTE ALL

REIS WOLF

WOLF REIS​

Thanks

I say we mega switch to Reis. Right now.

Edit: EURO, you and I have a psychic connection or something.

UNVOTE kiwi
VOTE REis

Everyone VOTE REIS!!

NOW!

The Chancellor has spoken.

I demand Reis be shot immediately.

Whoever makes the final switch gets to have his way with Reis's wife and daughter.

Why would you punish the one who kills reis with that?

VOTE REIS THE WEREwolf.

VOTE REIS NOW OR I WILL EAT YOUR CHILDREN

VOTE REIS

Now.

Vote Reis

Goddamnit, snoop, vote reis

Unvote Kiwi. Vote reis.

Reis is a wolf. It's confirmed.

You and AOK are wolves torturing me by keeping me alive aren't you? I has a bad feeling about this game.

Well, boys and girls, that is how Euro and I roll.

Now lets hope for the best.

We done good, we done good.

I hope you notice the recurring names there.

Well, thats it.

Go ahead and string me up. I really thought he was a wolf.

Why were you so confident? Did you assume he was trying to swing the votes with last minute analysis that people had no time to consider? That would presumably mean he was attached to either enkhuush or myself, so surely it would be better to lynch one of us two and see if he would do anything more desperate? You'd then have the identity of one of the people he may have been saving, and a better read of his behaviour under more pressure.

Do explain. I don't want to just string you up, I want to hear you explain yourself. Unlike EURO, whose behaviour has given the village nothing, you have presented arguments (be they genuine or malicious in intent), and I think we can gain something from hearing you explain yourself that we couldn't get from EURO. I want to believe. Give me a reason to.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Also, I have established a shrine to pray for the speedy recovery of DC.

Sadly, it is already too late for him to recover in time to bless us with his presence in the finals

 

[Najs]

So we have a enkhuush-Xeno pack. Possibly AOK/EURO, but they do like their shenanigans...

 

[tamius23]

For your convenience here are the names of three wolves.

EUROO7
AOK. 11
snoopdogg

They must all be lynched for the village to win. Should we lynch Sid today we're stuffed.

EURO dies today to win the game for the village, or at least hope to do so.

 

[Najs]

For your convenience here are the names of three wolves.

EUROO7
AOK. 11
snoopdogg

They must all be lynched for the village to win. Should we lynch Sid today we're stuffed.

EURO dies today to win the game for the village, or at least hope to do so.

I doubt it. What about Xeno and enkhuush?

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

So we have a enkhuush-Xeno pack. Possibly AOK/EURO, but they do like their shenanigans...

For your convenience here are the names of three wolves.

[size=]EUROO7
AOK. 11
snoopdogg[/size]

They must all be lynched for the village to win. Should we lynch Sid today we're stuffed.

EURO dies today to win the game for the village, or at least hope to do so.

See, we have a problem if we're naming five people as wolves...

tamius, what do you think of enkhuush/Xeno? Najs, what do you think of snoopdogg?

 

[tamius23]

I doubt it. What about Xeno and enkhuush?

I think Xeno is probably the last wolf.

 

[Najs]

See, we have a problem if we're naming five people as wolves...

tamius, what do you think of enkhuush/Xeno? Najs, what do you think of snoopdogg?

snoopdogg is just being a mindless part of EURO's posse as usual. He could be a wolf, but in that case I doubt EURO is. They've done things like this before without being on the same team.

 

[tamius23]

Are we thinking it could then be

EURO
AOK
Xeno
Enkhuush


...?

Either way I say we lynch EURO today and AOK tomorrow.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Are we thinking it could then be

EURO
AOK
Xeno
Enkhuush


...?

Either way I say we lynch EURO today and AOK tomorrow.

Looks like you both agree with me then Have I said I think EURO is genuine when he says he's a wolf yet? I have? Good. It goes deeper than that, though. In the previous lite setup looking somewhat guilty without going too far was fine. You could sit back and let the JL form, while not getting hunted. But here you need to actually try, and co-operate with the village - you don't want to pull crazy stunts like EURO has.

If you instead look at snoopdogg, you can see he's definitely been trying this game. I think he may have just been an unlucky victim of EURO and AOK pressuring him. That leaves the other two of those five, enkhuush and Xeno. Of course we need to see if it's a compatible pack, which is hard with no proven wolves to go on.

That said, I'm still interested in hearing from AOK. I would have thought he'd be more subtle, unless he's taking refuge in audacity.

 

[tamius23]

I think yesterday's events with reis need someone dead for them.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

I think yesterday's events with reis need someone dead for them.

You're just annoyed that when you pull crazy stunts you get lynched day one, when EURO just gets ignored.

And you're probably right to be annoyed about it.

 

[enkhuush]

Najs, why do you think me as wolf? Previous explanation was not enough. I think you're suspicious for accusing me as a wolf without reason.

Also why I would be pack with EUR007 and co?

 

[enkhuush]

Also as I said before village needs only 1 target now. So villagers concentrate on only 1 target.

 

[tamius23]

I'll agree with enkhuush that we need only focus on one target a day. We've got two days' worth of people to lynch - EUROO7 and AOK. 11 - and after those two days we'll have more information through hunts and crazy stunts the pack may pull at deadline, like they did yesterday.

 

[tamius23]

[4] EUROO7 - Tamius, AOK, enkhuush, Capt. Kiwi
[3] Syber_sid - EURO, Xeno, Snoop
[1] enkhuush - Najs

Votecount.