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Werewolf Lite CCXXI: Doom of the WereYak 5: Manhattan, 1939

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VOTE COUNT

EUROO7 - Boris ze Spider,
Bagricula - Joebthegreat, Vainglory,
Taiisatai64 - Jopi, randakar, esemasas, Malurous, Eternaly_Lost,
Eternaly_Lost - Taiisatai64, Bagricula,


NOT VOTED
EUROO7,
 
The Benevolent Order of Santa Claus was in turmoil. What had been planned as a grand alliance of the just and good had turned into a murderous free for all, infiltrated, organized, and prosecuted by the malignant hand of the WereYak.

Yet again, they gathered around a Christmas table full of turkeys, stuffing, roasts, and warm cider and spiced egg nog.

But more seats were empty this time... including that occupied by Santa's REAL Helper. Could hope survive the night? Would there be some justice meted out? Accusations rang across the table, and at one point, it looked as though George Orwell might come to physical blows with Joulupukki. But in the end, chaos did not erupt.

Rather, the orderly execution of the young Herbert Baum was carried out. The young Jewish freedom fighter, who had organized resistance to Hitler's pogroms throughout Germany was held down by Juho Kusti Paasikivi and Albert Einstein, while the remaining Santa Clauses beat him to death with their SLAY bells.

The chimes rang down the cold, strangely barren Manhattan streets.

But, although it was impossible to identify the young Baum as an individual when they were done, it was clear that he was NOT a Wereyak!

The President of Argentina reached for his eggnog, and downed almost a pint in one gulp, wiping away Baum's blood with one hand... and then collapsed to the ground. For the insidious WereYak had spiked the NOG!

taiisatai64 was lynched
randakar was hunted
 
Well, now I'm mad. I think that was a really stupid sudden switch to Taiisatai64, without much reason. We had so many options. Taiisatai64 was not a good one. I realize I am saying that too late, and so my saying it is meaningless. I'm just frustrated.

If Vainglory and/or Bagricula end up being wolves, I will be especially mad. If Jopi and/or Boris ze Spider end up being wolves, I will be fairly mad. If none of them are wolves, then I would have liked to at least known Bagricula's alignment going forward.

Malurous and Eternaly_Lost are the two that disappoint me the most yesterday. The way they switched their vote makes me suspect they were protecting someone, which of them do I think is the best lynch? I'll go with Malurous.

VOTE MALUROUS

---

Someone else say something brilliant, please.
 
joeb: I assume you mean my Baggy->Taii switch. I wasn't going to be around at deadline, so not having a tie was the first priority. I honestly don't know why you pick me of all the options available seeing that I had no choice at that point.

Considering that, if you're somehow a wolf despite randy not being one, well done. That's all I can say for that scenario.

I'm probably around for the next hour or so, so feel free to interrogate me if you're around. I'm drunk as heck so if I'm actually a wolf I should make a mistake. Test me, please, because if you're a villager you're heading for Stalingrad. And I don't like that.

Najs said:
I approve of this message.
Click to expand...

I approve of the approval. I'm now completely ****faced, and I'd express this more radically if not for the fact that my status makes me feel like I should follow the forum rules. :p
 
Malurous is... maybe kind of right...

esemesas was the one who made a tie that needed to be broken, funny considering what his posted reason for casting that vote was. Esemesas is more likely to be a packmate of Bagricula's than Malurous.

UNVOTE MALUROUS
VOTE ESEMESAS
 
joebthegreat said:
If none of them are wolves, then I would have liked to at least known Bagricula's alignment going forward.
Click to expand...

Chaotic good.

I'm experimenting with a new play approach. Essentially, add momentum to any switch that occurs in order to (1) exaggerate shifts and (2) generate systematic noise that high-quality analyzers can easily remove but that might distract or confuse either manipulators or zombies.

I'm also considering the broader question of a proper ecology of village strategies instead of people focusing on a single dominant strategy. I suspect there is real room for villagers to adopt mutually beneficial but different roles in their interactions with the village.

Also, I'm unvincible!
 
Vote Jopi

Has been very, very quiet as of late, and I think he needs some checking out
 
Sorry about the no vote. Was without power. Please inform if am subbed, otherwise:

Vote esemesas
 
You know what **sses me off? The taii lynch just doesn't give us the same amount of information that, well, pretty much any other of the interesting lynch targets would have given. And since it's randakar that introduced him, we won't get anywhere with that.

For that reason, the people who were happy to jump at taii interest me the most. Jopi, Baggy and ese, that is. For now, I'll vote with joeb since I mostly trust him, and I'll spend most of tomorrow without internet access.

Vote esemesas

But to be honest, this sucks. It's 5-4 and there's bound to be a red herring somewhere in here.
 
Can't edit the post with the vote, so I'll do this separately. I wanted to say that I'll try to look at this tomorrow and hopefully analyze, but since I'm not sure I can it's the safest bet to vote with the rather cleared one.
 
Vote Vainglory

He is a dirty dirty Prussian...I saw his naughty New Hegelian photography...
 
Also, if I were a Wereyak...I'd be hanging out with the zombies...wereyaks have no taste in conversationalists.
 
Bagricula said:
Chaotic good.

I'm experimenting with a new play approach. Essentially, add momentum to any switch that occurs in order to (1) exaggerate shifts and (2) generate systematic noise that high-quality analyzers can easily remove but that might distract or confuse either manipulators or zombies.

I'm also considering the broader question of a proper ecology of village strategies instead of people focusing on a single dominant strategy. I suspect there is real room for villagers to adopt mutually beneficial but different roles in their interactions with the village.

Also, I'm unvincible!
Click to expand...

You either have vote switches onto third party candidates or else you stick to the same people who have been brought up since the start of the day. That's not because everybody is following the same single dominant strategy, but because those are the results that are possible based on how everyone acts.

I don't think everybody needs to act the same, but I do think everybody should bring up who they personally think is the most suspicious, end of story. If, after everyone (or at least a dominant majority) has voted for who they think is the most suspicious, we have two or three candidates, then I think the smart move is for everyone to decide who is the most suspicious among those frontrunners. In a good village, some people may be mistaken or distracted, but the strongest arguments should prevail, and the most suspicious people should end up near the top of the lynch list. This is the basis of what I consider to be a strong village.

Purposefully creating or exaggerating shifts, to generate noise, will negatively affect almost everybody. It seems to me like manipulators would have an easier time convincing confused villagers after lots of exaggerated shifts, whereas a more stable and consistent game would make it easier for most players to see past attempts to manipulate them.

If you're a villager, I hope you will reconsider your current approach. If you're a wolf, don't expect to get away with this kind of stuff again (actually, you can reasonably expect to get away with it all the time. I'll point at you, but randakar might end up doing something stupid and saving your life... God I hate randakar).
 
What is this shit? It's like if I'm not around to babysit the village it goes to hell.

Randakar was a totally valid target until he revealed he was JL (which is confirmed by Stupid Wolves hunting him and nobody contradicting it). He'd been voted by the seer on Day 2. Any analysis that begins with voting Randakar being suspicious is not worth reading.

Then we have Malurous's analysis. Mal, are you deliberately trying to tunnel vision me? It's the same dilemma as in CCXX: if I vote for someone I doubt is a wolf, and they're not a wolf, I must be the wolf. If I don't vote for someone I doubt is a wolf, then I must be a wolf who didn't want blood on his hands. Or better yet lynch me first for protecting packmates without even first discovering whether the person I'm allegedly protecting is a wolf or not! And then if I do vote for someone I doubt is a wolf, and they are a wolf, I'll bet you'll say "alibi" immediately? Heck, if I'd left my vote on Jopi and been the only one, it'd be a wolfly throwaway. It's not analysis, it's just trying to shape the situation to indict a person.

Here's analysis: "The seer is dead, and gave us no public information. He had 2 scans however, which means there's something like a 1/3rd chance he scanned a wolf. Perhaps he voted for that wolf. Let's see who he voted for. Bagricula on Day 1. Perhaps he scanned Bagricula the obvious wolf? But no, Day 1 is prior to Bagricula's infamous tie. Perhaps he scanned Bagricula randomly on Night 0 and he's a wolf? But then why shift off Bagricula on Day 2 to Randakar? Well he might have scanned Randy on Night 1, explaining the shift off the most obvious wolf. The simplest explanation that accounts for this behavior is that Randakar was Marty's Night 1 scan, and that's why he shifted off the most obvious wolf." In this case I start from the basic idea that the seer might have voted for a wolf he scanned if he couldn't out them. I don't assume Bagricula or Randakar is a wolf and then try to make it fit. In fact I try cut it to see how it doesn't make sense.

Bagricula has always been a valid target, I just didn't think he's a particularly likely wolf. I brought up Bagricula on Day 1, if you'll care to remember, as a 3rd candidate. Selection was random, I actually used random.org to select Bagricula from 8 or so players who had 1 vote already. On Day 2 I thought he was too obvious a target, but a wagon, and I mean a wagon, was starting to form on Reis he had 5 votes when the nearest had 1. The reluctance to vote the Obvious Wolf interested me so I moved him up. Then on Day 3 the seer died so I figured that was a good lead. But no, Randy was JL, and he and the other JL said Jopi or Bagricula. The rest is history.

Anyway now we have the interesting situation where Malurous executed an interesting maneuver onto a villager, that saved Bagricula, why trying to say I am likely a wolf? Thrashing about like that, particularly to save the village chew toy, that stinks.
 
Bagricula said:
Also, if I were a Wereyak...I'd be hanging out with the zombies...wereyaks have no taste in conversationalists.
Click to expand...

I talk all the time as a wolf. So do plenty of people. Do I think you're more or less talkative as a wolf? I haven't payed enough attention to you to know. What I do know is you tend to be smart and analytical, and you're acting a differently here. You explain it away as an experimental different approach. I think it's been wolfish and damaging to the village.

But I already tried to lynch you and failed. At this point I don't even care. That's why I hope someone else comes up and says something brilliant.
 
joebthegreat said:
I talk all the time as a wolf. So do plenty of people. Do I think you're more or less talkative as a wolf? I haven't payed enough attention to you to know. What I do know is you tend to be smart and analytical, and you're acting a differently here. You explain it away as an experimental different approach. I think it's been wolfish and damaging to the village.

But I already tried to lynch you and failed. At this point I don't even care. That's why I hope someone else comes up and says something brilliant.
Click to expand...

Look up. Malurous really has my WOLFDAR going with that swing off of Bagricula, but now you're listening to him? The way I see it either Malurous wanted to save his chew toy for Parity Day, or he was saving a packmate. The packmate suggestion rings true, because now he's got the village chasing after people who were heretofore ignored, while the bleedingly obvious wolf who got saved by a last minute vote swing is left to laugh at us all.
 
Vainglory said:
Anyway now we have the interesting situation where Malurous executed an interesting maneuver onto a villager, that saved Bagricula, why trying to say I am likely a wolf? Thrashing about like that, particularly to save the village chew toy, that stinks.
Click to expand...

The sad thing is that randakar initiated the move. Malurous dealt the finishing blow, and could be a packmate with Bagricula or Jopi, (he wouldn't have made such a big vote unless his pack needed it). Actually, he may have thought Bagricula was inevitably going to die, but switched his vote when it became possible to save him. Perhaps he was trying to save Jopi by going after Bagricula, and then decided switching his vote would be better for protecting Jopi. I do think Malurous is a good target.

Still, I think he may be a red herring. We have to look at everyone who so willingly piled onto Taiisatai64, and if they're all villagers, then the village deserved to lose this game anyway.
 
Alright then. Vainglory is smart, and I think we're mostly feeling the same way here. He could be a wolf, but I like him.

Malurous and Bagricula are packmates. Would you be willing to go with this assumption Vainglory? Do you think that is our most likely lead? Which of the two is MORE likely a wolf?
 
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