Werewolf Lite CCXXIII: In fealty to the God-Emperor

[Kingepyon]

(2) the_hdk - Yakman, taiisatai
(1) trespoe - the_hdk
(1) taiisatai64 - Mr. G
(1) Randakar - Eternaly_Lost

 

[Kingepyon]

Looking at just what happened so far today, I say the most suspicious person is taiisatai. Why taiisatai? This post:

For now, I guess... vote HDK

He just agrees with the first person who is put forward. This puts the_HDK at 2, before anyone else even has a vote. It doesn't help that Yakman, the person who put the_HDK forward, has accused a likely JL member as being a wolf:

ties are not good.

you, my good man, are, as i suspected earlier - a chaos cultist.

BEWARE THE WITCH, THE HERETIC, THE XENOS.

We'll get your cult buddy today, and get you tomorrow.

Now I might be a little more suspicious of Mr. G's claim, except that no other supposed JL member has come forward and claimed that Mr. G is NOT a JL member. Why is this important? Because it would give us 2 sure targets today. 1 is guaranteed a wolf. As no one has come forward, and the PM looks pretty kiwi-like, I will stick with my initial though that Mr. G and Boris are telling the truth, and they are JL members. They are the 2 least suspicious people here, yet Mr. G is still being accused of being a wolf.

Just looking at what has happened today, I dislike the 2 voters on the_HDK.

However, I also dislike The_HDK. Why? This post:

ahh yes lets lynch the active players. players that want to get this village going.
I made the ties to shake this village up. so that people kept changing votes so that we got more info. if everyone ends up with their 1st vote we have very little info.

what I would like to know is why did the JL come out now? why NOW guys? you just made yourselfs hunt priorities. there are still 2 of you guys.
staying in the shadow would ensure that there is a chance of someone else hunted (thus one less possible wolf target)

I have little time today but ill be around for a few hours. after that ill be drunk.

vote tres

same as yesterday. we need to either get those players more active. or kill them off (nothing personal tres, I actually like you as a Internet persona)
but the village needs to get ACTIVE. others im feeling weird bout are Taii and Najs. both a bit in the shadow. small posts.

This post seems like a move to get someone else run up. Which is kind of understandable considering the_HDK needs to defend himself, but he could do a little better than this.

If we read his post he wants to lynch a player who isn't active. He accuses taii, trespoe and Najs pegged as inactive. trespoe was quite active yesterday and put forward a few arguments against reis. Taii has been active throughout most of the game. He hasn't been the most helpful player, but he's been active.

This could be a result of just not paying attention, but I also dislike this post, as it seems like it's just a push on a random villager.

As the day continues, taii appears to have given up:

SHADOW? Lol, someone hasn't been paying attention. I've been calling a lot of attention to myself, so either I'm a very smart wolf with a lot of luck, or I'm a villager.

Honestly, I don't know what the HELL is going on right now, I don't know who to believe, and I sure as hell don't know who is guilty. This is a wolf win as clean as I've ever seen...

Why would you give up? We have a 50% chance of getting a wolf today. That's great odds, even if we have no idea who the wolves are. Taii get's more suspicious as the day goes on.

He follows up with this post a short while later:

Thats stupid, what if we caught a wolf and a villagers? Parity, thats what.

This is incorrect. If we get a wolf and a villager, we live to see another day. But, as stated previously, we have a 50% chance of getting a wolf (10 players - 2 very likely JL is 8). Ties are not the best idea for the village right now, as they are usually easily influenced by wolves, but if we make a tie and are able to keep it a tie, then we have a much higher chance of actually getting a wolf is 78.6%. That's really good odds if we are able to keep a tie and hold it.

Just from analysing today, I think taii is the most suspicious person.

Of course, that's just today.

Disclaimer: Thank you for the correct number.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Probability is what you're actually asking for, not statistics. Although the latter might be rather illuminating too.

 

[Kingepyon]

Probability is what you're actually asking for, not statistics. Although the latter might be rather illuminating too.

Probability is a result of statistics. Someone who has taken statistics also knows how to find probability.

My statement is not incorrect.

Edit: I see the issue. I was talking about statistics, as in the course you would find at a university. While you were talking about statistics as in just statistics.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

/mathscommie

 

[trespoe]

ahh yes lets lynch the active players. players that want to get this village going.
I made the ties to shake this village up. so that people kept changing votes so that we got more info. if everyone ends up with their 1st vote we have very little info.

what I would like to know is why did the JL come out now? why NOW guys? you just made yourselfs hunt priorities. there are still 2 of you guys.
staying in the shadow would ensure that there is a chance of someone else hunted (thus one less possible wolf target)

I have little time today but ill be around for a few hours. after that ill be drunk.

vote tres

same as yesterday. we need to either get those players more active. or kill them off (nothing personal tres, I actually like you as a Internet persona)
but the village needs to get ACTIVE. others im feeling weird bout are Taii and Najs. both a bit in the shadow. small posts.

hmm. King did a good job of refuting this assessment of my activity. I actually think a problem is that I am on a different rotation than you lot. My posts come later when y'all are getting ready for bed. I have noticed this in other games and commented on it. No real help for it, though.

hdk... have you been stalking me on Facebook again? Internet persona???

Whatever pictures you found of me are incorrect. I kept my clothes on in that stripper club.

Looking at just what happened so far today, I say the most suspicious person is taiisatai. Why taiisatai? This post:



He just agrees with the first person who is put forward. This puts the_HDK at 2, before anyone else even has a vote. It doesn't help that Yakman, the person who put the_HDK forward, has accused a likely JL member as being a wolf:




Now I might be a little more suspicious of Mr. G's claim, except that no other supposed JL member has come forward and claimed that Mr. G is NOT a JL member. Why is this important? Because it would give us 2 sure targets today. 1 is guaranteed a wolf. As no one has come forward, and the PM looks pretty kiwi-like, I will stick with my initial though that Mr. G and Boris are telling the truth, and they are JL members. They are the 2 least suspicious people here, yet Mr. G is still being accused of being a wolf.

Just looking at what has happened today, I dislike the 2 voters on the_HDK.

However, I also dislike The_HDK. Why? This post:



This post seems like a move to get someone else run up. Which is kind of understandable considering the_HDK needs to defend himself, but he could do a little better than this.

If we read his post he wants to lynch a player who isn't active. He accuses taii, trespoe and Najs pegged as inactive. trespoe was quite active yesterday and put forward a few arguments against reis. Taii has been active throughout most of the game. He hasn't been the most helpful player, but he's been active.

This could be a result of just not paying attention, but I also dislike this post, as it seems like it's just a push on a random villager.

As the day continues, taii appears to have given up:



Why would you give up? We have a 50% chance of getting a wolf today. That's great odds, even if we have no idea who the wolves are. Taii get's more suspicious as the day goes on.

He follows up with this post a short while later:



This is incorrect. If we get a wolf and a villager, we live to see another day. But, as stated previously, we have a 50% chance of getting a wolf (10 players - 2 very likely JL is 8). Ties are not the best idea for the village right now, as they are usually easily influenced by wolves, but if we make a tie and are able to keep it a tie, then we have a much higher chance of actually getting a wolf is 78.6%. That's really good odds if we are able to keep a tie and hold it.

Just from analysing today, I think taii is the most suspicious person.

Of course, that's just today.

Disclaimer: Thank you for the correct number.

I don't agree 100% but it is a good argument. This is what the village needs and perhaps I should do something similar instead of the "summation" style I used last night. I need to process this day before continuing. Since hdk didn't like the placeholder vote, I will wait until I can process this last day which will be after dinner of fondue.... gruyere and smoked gouda!

I will say that the JL claimants seem valid, as I couldn't fake a pm from Kiwi (and I don't know if anyone could fake mine, I have too many idiosyncrasies. Then again, I have made my JL PMs very simple. Perhaps in the future I should make them more interesting...)

 

[the_hdk]

:rofl: tres

just got back home, im a bit drunk after 3l of beer and 2 wodkas-red bull.
ok guys im a bad lynch and ill try to save myself

unvote tres
vote taiisatai64

taii was my 2nd target for today and as neither najs or tres got any other votes I need to try something
weird that nobody follows me on tres. :S

 

[Najs]

I think Vainglory has only GMd one other game. Regardless, the village came back from 3-0 down in the first game he GMd - but mainly because they still had the seer.

Ahh yes, that was some smug bastard wasn't it? By the way, this was meant to be a drunk post but I'm not drunk. It appears we are not actually playing Werewolf then. :/

 

[the_hdk]

any other drunk posters>?

 

[Kingepyon]

any other drunk posters>?

I don't drink

 

[the_hdk]

I don't drink

<checks info> no age info.
either you are reaaly young or old

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

@trespoe: Your house has a wife?

Ahh yes, that was some smug bastard wasn't it? By the way, this was meant to be a drunk post but I'm not drunk. It appears we are not actually playing Werewolf then. :/

I learnt a lot from that game, even if you thoroughly crushed team wolf by the end.

 

[Kingepyon]

<checks info> no age info.
either you are reaaly young or old

25 actually.

I learnt a lot from that game, even if you thoroughly crushed team wolf by the end.

I disliked that game. I had no idea what was going on, and then I suddenly won. I felt so useless, though I helped the JL hit a tie right at the end, so it wasn't that bad.

 

[the_hdk]

25 actually.



I disliked that game. I had no idea what was going on, and then I suddenly won. I felt so useless, though I helped the JL hit a tie right at the end, so it wasn't that bad.

we are same age than. May I ask why you do not drink?

 

[Kingepyon]

we are same age than. May I ask why you do not drink?

Partially because it makes me sick if I drink more than a glass of the stuff. Not the usual "I drank too much" though.

Partially because it's expensive.

Partially because I dislike the taste.

And for the times that I did drink, I dislike the whole lessened mental functions part of it.

 

[the_hdk]

Partially because it makes me sick if I drink more than a glass of the stuff. Not the usual "I drank too much" though.

Partially because it's expensive.

Partially because I dislike the taste.

And for the times that I did drink, I dislike the whole lessened mental functions part of it.

all reasonable answers.

If you dont want to get sick try to stay with one kind of drink/night. Also ther are so many sort of alcohol you just need to find those you like and dont make you sick
for me I can't stand Whiskey or atleast my body can't I feel awful after only 1 drink.

also years of practice dont make you a better drinker well at first maybe . a person not used to alcohol will get drunk alot faster at start but after a few months he will devolp a pretty good defense and will outdrink everyone. than after 4 years that will go down again until you are back where you started

expensive? depends where and what I guess If I go out with my friends I need to watch my wallet. thats true. especially when one of my friends orders. last summer he ordered 4 meters of shots. yes he didnt order an amount but in meters! lol
TBH I can't remember much of that night after that.

mental functions? well that depends. they say when intoxicated people become more them-selfs. BS you just lose the ability to care about others. you really need to drink alot to be far enough to lose thinking ability
but some Dutch Courage is always nice IMO

 

[Kingepyon]

all reasonable answers.

If you dont want to get sick try to stay with one kind of drink/night. Also ther are so many sort of alcohol you just need to find those you like and dont make you sick
for me I can't stand Whiskey or atleast my body can't I feel awful after only 1 drink.

No, it has nothing to do with what I'm drinking. I just get sick easily when I eat/drink certain things at certain times. It's annoying, but easy to avoid.

I've also tried a wide variety. The only kind of alcohol I like/can drink without getting sick is Ice wine. But it's expensive.

 

[Kingepyon]

WALL OF TEXT! (aka a recap of day 1)

Day 1 starts with an attempt from Reis to analyse the hunt

Esemesas hunted again? Poor guy, two Lites, two times hunted on night 0.

So, I will start by proposing we lynch, on Day 1, the people who did not play last game, on the basis that they aren't sadistic players who delight themselves in tormenting esemesas, and would thus have preferred to hunt someone else if they were aware esemesas was hunted Night 0 last game. Therefore:

Vote Eternaly Lost

Shortly later, Kiwi finds an issue with his arguement, and then turns his vote on reis.

This is Not Good.

Also, I thought something was up with reis' theory, and having just double checked last game I now know what. esemesas was indeed the first night's hunt. Which put him straight on the sub list. esemesas was, in fact, the last wolf lynched. Which reis would know, as a member of the JL and one of the winners. randakar wasn't JL, but he also won and should know better.

Therefore in my effort to cut down the number of front runners to the ideal 2-3, and totally not in self defence,

Unvote randakar
Vote reis91

Until he repents of his wicked ways.

This is what the count looks like then:

(3) Reis91 - Yakman, the_HDK, Capt. Kiwi

(2) Rendap - Taiisatai64, Najs
(2) The_Hdk - Seen, Mr. G
(2) Eternaly_Lost - Reis91, Randakar
(2) Capt. Kiwi - Rendap, Nautilu

(1) Mr. G - snoopdogg
(1) Nautilu - Eternaly_Lost

Then Boris proceeds to LSSt vote me, and seen has issues with me switching from Rendap to E_L

As a priest I have superior insight in these things. You both make a good argument. Only thing I wonder is why Kingepyon is trying to spread the vote again at this stage. Rendap is a front runner but not too much voted on. Unvoting now in my eyes is trying to make us look on another target. My conclusion is that both Rendap and Kingepyon are likely wolfs.

Therefor: Unvote the the_hdk, vote Kingepyon

I would love to see a tie both Rendap and Kingepyon lynched just for the information, but let it at least be one of them. Go emperor cult go!

HDK agrees with Seen (or at least wants to "be nice" to him) pushing me into a tie with reis

I must say after last game this time ill be nice to seen

unvote reids
vote Kingepyon

Trespoe, after a quick vote on Kiwi switches to Rendap

*puts more lemons in his thinking cap*
I kinda agree with this sentiment. His reasoning is sound which is why I don't like it. I usually distrust the first two candidates brought up on the first couple of days. They tend to be voted up by wolves, which is why I was looking for a third or fourth option. I feel that there would be at least one wolfy in this pack of four tied currently. But I also feel the tie should be broken before deadline in what.... 3 or 4 hours?

Help! I need more lemons to think!

unvote Capt Kiwi

Vote REndap

much better now.

This puts Rendap in the lead and keeps him in the lead for about 3 hours, until discussion about sniping comes up and I switch my vote from E_L to Rendap

I was waiting until :30

But I'll do it anyway.

Unvote Eternaly_Lost
Vote Rendap

Then taiisatai switches votes

unvote rendap
vote kingepyon

I'm only guilty of wanting to screw with your minds.

I switch to E_L and switch back to Rendap, after realizing that switching to E_L doesn't actually help my cause, but taiisatai switches to E_L in between

This puts Rendap back in first, and after a snipe protection vote from Reis, the day is over.

In the end, a decently standard day. Some less than solid reasons for voting people, but it's day 1. The only real action here was the taii switching. Which he claims he wanted to get E_L lynched.

(5) Rendap - Najs, Capt. Kiwi, trespoe, Kingepyon, Reis91
(2) Eternaly_Lost - randakar, Taiisatai64
(3) Kingepyon - Boris ze Spider, Seen, the_hdk
(2) Capt. Kiwi - Rendap, Nautilu
(1) the_hdk - Mr. G
(1) reis91 - Yakman
(1) Mr. G - Snoopdogg
(1) Nautilu - Eternaly_Lost

This part is kind of important as it comes into play in day 2.

 

[Najs]

Partially because it makes me sick if I drink more than a glass of the stuff. Not the usual "I drank too much" though.

Partially because it's expensive.

Partially because I dislike the taste.

And for the times that I did drink, I dislike the whole lessened mental functions part of it.

The last part is called fun.
The third part can be remedied by drinking the right things.
The second part can be remedied by going to Germany.
The first part is harder.

Now, I looked back a little and what I saw was Yakman throwing out wild accusations over and over and over again. To me it seems he is trying to buy time, which is reasonable if he is a wolf. After all, with one lynch to parity time is all the wolves need.

There are several other candidates that are shady enough to encourage a vote though. In fact, everyone and their mothers seem shady enough, except for our two JL members. Alas, chaos does not benefit us right now. I believe Yakman is one of our best bets for a wolf and I will act on it.

Vote Yakman

 

[Kingepyon]

Day 2:

Day 2 starts with the discussion about the vote switching the previous day.

Here is Randy's vote and a recap if you want to click it(as it would double the size of my post):

Vote Boris ze Spider

Let's see where that leads, then.

Taii puts a vote on E_L (again) with no explaination, but then gives one when the_HDK pushes him

Yes.

He made only a throw-away vote. He was one of the front runners, but voters seemed to skitter away from him, for no apparent reason. Despite being in the lead at one point, Kingepyon immediately switched back to rendap upon voting him, which may be a ploy to clear himself if he and E_L are packmates, which I presume to be unlikely. Reis also switched off him, I think that was to prevent a vote snipe though... In conclusion, I have a bad feeling about him.

I'll switch off him later in the day, because noone is going to hook on to my arguement.

This arguement makes some sence, but why not post it with your vote? The throw away vote when he was a front-runner was kind of odd. Turned out he didn't need to save himself, though.

The_HDK agrees:

good. we can test this

Vote Eternaly_Lost

Yakman also votes for E_L, but doesn't give much more reason than:

because he's there.

somebody else mentioned something about him being suspicious.

really, i have no information, so... i'm just voting to vote.

This reason sounds vaguely familiar. (See taii day 4)

Not only does he vote E_L he also pushed E_L even further ahead of anyone else.

Randy switches to put a second vote on snoop and trespoe votes reis for no real reason

I think I was turned into play-do before normalcy happened. Go Trifecta!

Vote Reis916572907562910

why? We need a third just for analysis sakes. Snoop and EL are good targets. yeeeahhhhhh!!!!

Hugs and Kisses,
Zaphod

Snoop and Boris add even more votes to E_L and E_L votes me

(2) Snoopdogg - Capt. kiwi, randakar
(5) Eternaly_Lost - Taiisatai, the_HDK, Yakman, Snoopdogg, Boris ze Spider
(1) Reis91 - trespoe
(1) Kingepyon - Eternaly_Lost

I notice the (somewhat obvious) wagon on E_L and vote snoop and Nautilu joins me

E_L got a lot of votes without any real competitor.

Vote Snoopdogg

It's odd that when snoop (or boris for the earlier votes) gets suggested as a candidate, the other candidate (E_L) gets piled on.

When Najs asks for reasons Yakman replies with:

it all looks like fumbling to me.

And Najs votes him

Seems so indeed. I am tempted to vote you for your seeming unwillingness to give reasons for your vote until it is dragged out of you, but it would be pointless as the count is unlikely to change much during the night.
Hmm, snoop's at 4 and E_L's at 5. I cannot with good conscience make a tie that I wouldn't be able to break myself. I do know that snoop generally has good instincts though, and he is going for E_L.

And I need to sleep. I will just vote he whom I consider most suspicious at a glance.

Vote Yakman

This post, I agree with. Yakman is happy to push E_L further ahead of other candidates but refuses (again) to give a reason for his vote.

E_L then switches to snoop, as it seems he finally realises he was in trouble, and ties it.

A few hours before the deadline the_HDK decides he's going to put snoop in the lead, similar to trespoe on day 1.

no ties!

unvote lost
vote Snoopdogg

Unlike day 1, this one stuck. Maybe taii didn't want to draw more attention to himself?