Going down to the wire, eh?
Good luck to the last packmate. This will be interesting to watch.
Good luck to the last packmate. This will be interesting to watch.
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If the_hdk had kept his earlier deadline, I could've blamed my less-than-optimal play in this game on my Seership in the Big game! Drat!
First post updated, RP added to latest day (only day 4 lacks RP now).
Yes, I was kind of hoping for this. I love a good game to the wire.
Yes, I was kind of hoping for this. I love a good game to the wire.
And I believed you, more or less. But I have no idea why you were hunted...
Do the math. The only way it would have brought the game to an earlier end was if you were a wolf
Vote gigau
For now.
Well, all i know is i'm a villager, and that one of you guys is a stone-cold player who sacrificed one or two other packmates to ensure a victory.
Given the lack of time (i'm at work), i can't do a more thorough analysis than the small thingie i posted just before going to bed (and that you quoted).
I'm doing the math : if you had killed me at same time as you got Suir, would have remained Falc, Rendap, DoomBunny, Thandros and you... meaning 2vs3 yesterday. Considering a vote same as last night, it'd have been today 1vs2 (all three having an alibi)... But only one person was lynched, so, right now, it's 1vs3 (only one not having a good alibi). So the math is not so much in your favor.
But even now, as Rendap and you are decided to lynch me, it seems i won't make it to tomorrow... and this means a wolf victory.
I know my defense isn't strong, but it so happens that indeed my record isn't that good in the game... and the remaining wolf has managed to create himself a seemingly perfect alibi that even Rendap or you (i mean the one that is a villager - or both if DoomBunny is the last wolf) won't even consider to accept the fact that i'm a villager.
A couple of days ago, i was considering rage-quitting WW-Lite, because, in the different games i've played, i still can't understand how using strategies that work for several of you "veterans" fail when i try to apply them... as you (Kiwi) were trying to turn each of my actions against me, that i seemed to never be able to find the good strategy that would make my fellow villagers see i was one of them. But now i realize that i probably wasn't a villager you were trying to sacrifice in the search of a wolf, or that i was not a suspect that had to be eliminated... i guess i was just a villager who's mistakes backfired, and the wolf was taking advantage of the situation to make one step closer to victory.
Given the lack of time (i'm at work), i can't do a more thorough analysis than the small thingie i posted just before going to bed (and that you quoted).
I'm doing the math : if you had killed me at same time as you got Suir, would have remained Falc, Rendap, DoomBunny, Thandros and you... meaning 2vs3 yesterday. Considering a vote same as last night, it'd have been today 1vs2 (all three having an alibi)... But only one person was lynched, so, right now, it's 1vs3 (only one not having a good alibi). So the math is not so much in your favor.
But even now, as Rendap and you are decided to lynch me, it seems i won't make it to tomorrow... and this means a wolf victory.
I know my defense isn't strong, but it so happens that indeed my record isn't that good in the game... and the remaining wolf has managed to create himself a seemingly perfect alibi that even Rendap or you (i mean the one that is a villager - or both if DoomBunny is the last wolf) won't even consider to accept the fact that i'm a villager.
A couple of days ago, i was considering rage-quitting WW-Lite, because, in the different games i've played, i still can't understand how using strategies that work for several of you "veterans" fail when i try to apply them... as you (Kiwi) were trying to turn each of my actions against me, that i seemed to never be able to find the good strategy that would make my fellow villagers see i was one of them. But now i realize that i probably wasn't a villager you were trying to sacrifice in the search of a wolf, or that i was not a suspect that had to be eliminated... i guess i was just a villager who's mistakes backfired, and the wolf was taking advantage of the situation to make one step closer to victory.
Werewolf doesn't have any hard and fast rules. Any strategy is a good one if you can persuade everyone else it's good It just takes a bit of experience with the game, confidence in yourself and knowledge of the other players to know how you can achieve what you want.
If you look at some of the strategies I've used in the last few games, while I've made nice pretty justifications for them not many have worked. I couldn't get the tie I wanted, and even if I had the three players that were considered were all innocent anyway (let's just assume you are a villager for this conversation). But what I'm decent at is twisting those mishaps to my advantage. The tie failed, but a few leaps of logic got me Falc. I could do that because I knew the players involved, what their style was, what they would respond to.
You being new can make that difficult for both sides. I don't know what approach to take to you, or what your different moves are indicating. Whereas with Falc I knew what to expect, and when he tried to pull a reis instead of play as he usualy would I went for him. But when we misread you that's naturally going to frustrate you
As for this game: I fully acknowledge the possibility that Rendap or Doombunny could be wolves. I actually have a strong hunch on Rendap based on randakar's comments that he knew Rendap was a better player than that in Big. It's quite possible that was from being a packmate here - although we now know Rendap's lynching in Big was a deliberate ploy.
As for strategies now, I may have neglected to mention one situation in which a tie is beneficial There weren't enough Vainglory-era players around to be able to just assume things were known, so I gave the simplified version. Here's another time a tie is good:
If on the last day you have one wolf, two suspicious players left, and an even amount of players in total, go for a tie of your two suspicious players. Force them to vote each other, and if one of them doesn't agree, lynch that player - full stop. No excuses. The other players split evenly between the two, and NOBODY changes vote under any circumstances.
What's the point? Those two suspicious players are unable to save themselves with a snipe - only the other player. An innocent villager may die, but unless you're completely on the wrong track the others win. And if you're completely on the wrong track you're going to lose anyway. And if you're worried about the innocent villager losing, then just bear in mind that usually the wolf will give up rather than deny them the win.
So how does this apply to you? If you vote someone other than me, I'll join you, and we'll have our standoff between two suspicious players. As I said, I personally suspect Rendap more than Doombunny, but you might want to re-examine the cases against Rendap and Doombunny. As long as Doombunny goes along with it we're all set. And as long as one of the two is the wolf, hopefully they'll do the honourable thing and surrender.
Feel free to ask for clarification.
It just takes a bit of experience with the game, confidence in yourself and knowledge of the other players to know how you can achieve what you want.If you look at some of the strategies I've used in the last few games, while I've made nice pretty justifications for them not many have worked. I couldn't get the tie I wanted, and even if I had the three players that were considered were all innocent anyway (let's just assume you are a villager for this conversation). But what I'm decent at is twisting those mishaps to my advantage. The tie failed, but a few leaps of logic got me Falc. I could do that because I knew the players involved, what their style was, what they would respond to.
You being new can make that difficult for both sides. I don't know what approach to take to you, or what your different moves are indicating. Whereas with Falc I knew what to expect, and when he tried to pull a reis instead of play as he usualy would I went for him. But when we misread you that's naturally going to frustrate you
As for this game: I fully acknowledge the possibility that Rendap or Doombunny could be wolves. I actually have a strong hunch on Rendap based on randakar's comments that he knew Rendap was a better player than that in Big. It's quite possible that was from being a packmate here - although we now know Rendap's lynching in Big was a deliberate ploy.
As for strategies now, I may have neglected to mention one situation in which a tie is beneficial
There weren't enough Vainglory-era players around to be able to just assume things were known, so I gave the simplified version. Here's another time a tie is good:If on the last day you have one wolf, two suspicious players left, and an even amount of players in total, go for a tie of your two suspicious players. Force them to vote each other, and if one of them doesn't agree, lynch that player - full stop. No excuses. The other players split evenly between the two, and NOBODY changes vote under any circumstances.
What's the point? Those two suspicious players are unable to save themselves with a snipe - only the other player. An innocent villager may die, but unless you're completely on the wrong track the others win. And if you're completely on the wrong track you're going to lose anyway. And if you're worried about the innocent villager losing, then just bear in mind that usually the wolf will give up rather than deny them the win.
So how does this apply to you? If you vote someone other than me, I'll join you, and we'll have our standoff between two suspicious players. As I said, I personally suspect Rendap more than Doombunny, but you might want to re-examine the cases against Rendap and Doombunny. As long as Doombunny goes along with it we're all set. And as long as one of the two is the wolf, hopefully they'll do the honourable thing and surrender.
Feel free to ask for clarification.
tl;dr version:
As the only one without an alibi, the only way (a villager) gigau can save himself is if the wolf steps forward. Under any other circumstance he must be lynched.
The only way to get this hypothetical wolf to step forward is a judgement of Solomon style tie, where the wolf loses whatever happens and decides not to take the other player down with them.
As the only one without an alibi, the only way (a villager) gigau can save himself is if the wolf steps forward. Under any other circumstance he must be lynched.
The only way to get this hypothetical wolf to step forward is a judgement of Solomon style tie, where the wolf loses whatever happens and decides not to take the other player down with them.
Sorry, about previous post... some how messed up.
I was saying : i guess i see your point, and it makes sense.
For the sake of learning, and i don't have much to lose (and Rendap is as about as suspicious to me as you are, not having much informations) :
Unvote Kiwi
Vote Rendap
I was saying : i guess i see your point, and it makes sense.
For the sake of learning, and i don't have much to lose (and Rendap is as about as suspicious to me as you are, not having much informations) :
Unvote Kiwi
Vote Rendap
That sounds like something I came up with... Why on earth are you referring to the Vainglory era as if it was aeons ago? Stop making me feel older than I already am!!!
A bunch of players came in at the same time or just after Vainglory. Myself, Taiisatai64, tamius23, Falc... probably others. I think Hearth started playing then too, although he disappeared again. I'd say Bagricula would just squeeze in at the end of the group.
What makes it an era is we have reasonably similar philosophies and playstyles. We learnt from joebthegreat first and foremost, rather than from AOK or EURO. We favour methodicism, controlled runups and fair play more than some other players.
@Doombunny:
Please vote Rendap..
I am not a wolf. If you are a wolf, congratulations and well played. If Rendap or gigau is a wolf, please surrender so the other can win.
I would swap to Rendap myself, but just in case Doombunny doesn't show up I'll be the one to vote gigau. Hopefully he shows up soon.
Also, don't fool for tricks. Only a wolf has a reason to change vote in this tie. You don't need to respond to snipes, or try and set up traps, just leave it be.
So I re-read the whole thread looking at Rendap, Doombunny and gigau and their dealings with the three known wolves...
gigau really is the best candidate. If Doombunny is a wolf, he deserves his win, no hard feelings. Although I'll have plenty of material for future games with him ;
As for Rendap... his vote on randakar wasn't as important as it seemed. Yes, it tied randakar with humancalculator. But randakar was already the clearly chosen candidate, and by voting him Rendap increased the odds of the next vote being on the other guy. This would then allow him to switch, ostensibly to prevent a tie snipe. It didn't work out that way, but it was the correct play for a wolf even if it looks villagerish.
His later vote on Falc was more important, and it would only happen if Falc had asked for it, predicting he would be lynched. Doombunny's late vote that day is the one thing that doesn't look good for him, but these things happen. Oh, and I guess his day one vote on Falc, but that was early enough to be dangerous. Like I said, if he's a wolf I have a lot of material to work with in future games
So in summary: gigau keeps my vote and Rendap's. Rendap keeps gigau's, and gets Doombunny's when he logs on. If either is a wolf, hopefully they do the honourable thing. If neither is a wolf I'll be surprised, pleasantly so.
gigau really is the best candidate. If Doombunny is a wolf, he deserves his win, no hard feelings. Although I'll have plenty of material for future games with him ;
As for Rendap... his vote on randakar wasn't as important as it seemed. Yes, it tied randakar with humancalculator. But randakar was already the clearly chosen candidate, and by voting him Rendap increased the odds of the next vote being on the other guy. This would then allow him to switch, ostensibly to prevent a tie snipe. It didn't work out that way, but it was the correct play for a wolf even if it looks villagerish.
His later vote on Falc was more important, and it would only happen if Falc had asked for it, predicting he would be lynched. Doombunny's late vote that day is the one thing that doesn't look good for him, but these things happen. Oh, and I guess his day one vote on Falc, but that was early enough to be dangerous. Like I said, if he's a wolf I have a lot of material to work with in future games
So in summary: gigau keeps my vote and Rendap's. Rendap keeps gigau's, and gets Doombunny's when he logs on. If either is a wolf, hopefully they do the honourable thing. If neither is a wolf I'll be surprised, pleasantly so.
Well, it still irks me a lot to be lynched as a villager at this point...
Sorry to ruin your day (well, not much ruin it as your post gives me back the nagging feeling i had previously), but :
Unvote Rendap
Vote Kiwi
And, DoomBunny, may i suggest you don't listen to Kiwi (unless you are a wolf or you have better informations than me) and follow me in bringing down Kiwi... he tries too much to be sure that the votes remain on Rendap and away from him...
Sorry to ruin your day (well, not much ruin it as your post gives me back the nagging feeling i had previously), but :
Unvote Rendap
Vote Kiwi
And, DoomBunny, may i suggest you don't listen to Kiwi (unless you are a wolf or you have better informations than me) and follow me in bringing down Kiwi... he tries too much to be sure that the votes remain on Rendap and away from him...
If you're a villager your only hope is that the wolf will surrender. The wolf will only do that if they are tied with you. I am not the wolf. I think Rendap could be the wolf, even if you're more likely. Doombunny is bottom of my list.
Now you could try to use the same plan against me. However, there's a slight problem with that: I'm about to head to sleep. I'm not going to be changing my vote to save you, even if I was the wolf. And I doubt Rendap will either. You'd need one of us to change, and it won't happen.
And if I was a wolf, why would I bring this up? I would only need to kill one villager. Easiest way would be to vote you alongside Rendap, and ask Doombunny to do likewise. You've got no defence. As a villager though, I need fail safes - hence this plan. You could say that maybe I just want you to think that, but why do I need you thinking anything at all? Again, as a wolf I just need to get you lynched, and simple would be best.
Again @Doombunny: The best place for your vote is on Rendap. I'm starting to get more confident that gigau is the wolf, and if he is I hope he doesn't deny Rendap a well deserved win. But voting Rendap gives you a failsafe.
@Rendap: Sorry, but this is the best way. If you're a villager, take it up with gigau to do the right thing. I hope he would. And unless you're a wolf, please leave your vote as is. I think we all are pretty clear on gigau being the best candidate, this is just about fail safes.
Now you could try to use the same plan against me. However, there's a slight problem with that: I'm about to head to sleep. I'm not going to be changing my vote to save you, even if I was the wolf. And I doubt Rendap will either. You'd need one of us to change, and it won't happen.
And if I was a wolf, why would I bring this up? I would only need to kill one villager. Easiest way would be to vote you alongside Rendap, and ask Doombunny to do likewise. You've got no defence. As a villager though, I need fail safes - hence this plan. You could say that maybe I just want you to think that, but why do I need you thinking anything at all? Again, as a wolf I just need to get you lynched, and simple would be best.
Again @Doombunny: The best place for your vote is on Rendap. I'm starting to get more confident that gigau is the wolf, and if he is I hope he doesn't deny Rendap a well deserved win. But voting Rendap gives you a failsafe.
@Rendap: Sorry, but this is the best way. If you're a villager, take it up with gigau to do the right thing. I hope he would. And unless you're a wolf, please leave your vote as is. I think we all are pretty clear on gigau being the best candidate, this is just about fail safes.
True, but i know i'm a villager, and it really irks me to be lynched at this point, although i don't thing i did anything wrong... just that there remains a ruthless wolf that got himself a solid alibi. And i don't want to, obviously.
Your statement seems safe again... again, i'm too new to notice this. And i don't want to take a villager down with me... but i'd hate to let a wolf win...
But then again, you could be afraid that i manage to get a statement to convince the others to vote against you.
In any case, you'll be sorry if you are a villager... because you will be offering the wolf his victory.
Your statement seems safe again... again, i'm too new to notice this. And i don't want to take a villager down with me... but i'd hate to let a wolf win...
But then again, you could be afraid that i manage to get a statement to convince the others to vote against you.
In any case, you'll be sorry if you are a villager... because you will be offering the wolf his victory.
My problem with this game is that I learned from EURO, jonti-h, and Lemeard the Great.
Three completely different playstyles and all have their own insanity. Insanity < logic, and yet I still use insanity.