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Werewolf Lite CCXL - The Game of WEREWOLF LITE

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johho888 said:
Seriously, I always feel like a n00b when I do my once a year Lite appearance. Usually in Big after a couple of days you can start get baddie vibes from some players or you have enough baddies dead so you can anaylyze the votes but here it's usually over before it really get started and this game is worse than most with no dead baddies at all so there is nothing to go on. I really thought Lite players had some tactics for smoking out wolves. Wasn't there some idea that you should move your vote around a lot, especially close to the deadline - or was that last year's tactics?
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and when I started it was common for players to at least make placeholder votes, followed by switching when votes started piling up. Now it seems it is best to leave your vote where it is at, because switching votes = bad. I always look at the timing of votes, however, and motivations behind them. Usually those creating the bandwagons (third vote or so) or those saying "I agree" a lot or those advocating for someone to lynch but not actually voting that person seem suspect to me.
 
It feels like were in an old western and everyone is staring everyone else down waiting for the first move to me made.

Oh well, guess I'll make the first vote.

Vote Johho

Reason? I don't think randy, trespoe, Gigau and (obviously) myself are the best targets today. Gigau and randy are playing quite similar to last game when they were both villagers, and randy especially is more aggressive as a wolf with accusations and the like. Maybe trespoe, but there's people who I'm more suspicious of voting for him, so I'm ignoring him for now.

Split catches my attention, esp the night 0 hunt, but I didn't choose him for today. He could be a wolf, but I think Johho sticks out more.

Najs, tornadoli and Thandros are in that group of suspects largely because they have come out on the positive side of Johhos votes. On the last day with no wolves voting method and who gained/lost and who was run up and who was ignored comes into account. Since we haven't lynched any wolves I can assume that the wolves are working together to keep other wolves out of bad situations.
 
For calling for a vote on snoopdogg then complaining on the fact that we started doing so :

Vote The_Split
 
Tornadoli said:
Pulling out too much of an analysis from so little data seems like a wolf desperately trying to look like a goodie.
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But we have to start analyzing sooner or later, just random voting can't possibly be the way to go for a village.

Can something be found from who was hunted, maybe? Sometimes wolfpacks hunt people who would be cleared if a pack member is found out.

Hunt victims have been Boris (night 1)

Day 1 votes:
Tamius -5- Randakar, Gigau, Nautilu, Thandros, Gradiant,
Gradiant -5- Boris, Tamius, Snoopdogg, Kinge, Esemesas
Thandros -2- Rendap, Split,
Kinge -2- Trespoe, Johho,
Split -1- Tornadoli,
Rendap -1- Najs,

Hm, obviously no wolf close to be lynched here.

Nautilu (night 2)

Day 2 votes

Ese 6 - Tornadoli, Najs, Trespoe, Kinge, Snoop, Nautilu,
Nautilu 3 - Randy, Ese, Gigau,
Randy 1 - Johho
Split 1 - Thandros
Trespoe 1 - Rendap,
Thandros 1 - Split

Earlier Nautilu's vote was on trespoe but he was nowhere near to be lynched. No wolf in the late running that day either.

Hunted night 3 Rendap

Day 3 votes

Snoop 5 - Trespoe, Najs, Tornadoli, Kinge, Rendap
Trespoe 4 - Thandros, The_Split, Johho, Snoop
Johho 1 - Randy
The_Split 1 - Gigau

This day at least we have a contender that might be a baddie. Rendap however didn't vote and wolf this day. He did go after Thandros day 1 though but I don't think he was really in any danger.

Bah. That didn't really say much. But might as well back that up with a vote after "all" the work.

vote Thandros
 
Ok. I had this long post typed out, and then my little son came along and hit random buttons causing the entire post to go *poof* :(

I will try to reconstruct, but I may get .. distracted .. again.
 
trespoe said:
and when I started it was common for players to at least make placeholder votes, followed by switching when votes started piling up. Now it seems it is best to leave your vote where it is at, because switching votes = bad. I always look at the timing of votes, however, and motivations behind them. Usually those creating the bandwagons (third vote or so) or those saying "I agree" a lot or those advocating for someone to lynch but not actually voting that person seem suspect to me.
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There's two things you can do:
1) Look at behaviour. Specific wolves have specific ways of playing the game. Some people shut up, being afraid to talk. Others are a lot less accusative and paranoid then when they're not wolves. With yet others, it's exactly the other way around.
2) Who-hates-who analysis. If you have no dead wolves it may be possible to figure out who the wolves really are by analyzing what people cannot be packmates due to them being too much after each other. Not sure if that applies to this game though. Would have to start setting up a spreadsheet, and that would be a lot of work :p


Kingepyon said:
It feels like were in an old western and everyone is staring everyone else down waiting for the first move to me made.
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.. or it's the weekend and people are really hung over busy with other things :p

Kingepyon said:
Vote Johho

Reason? I don't think randy, trespoe, Gigau and (obviously) myself are the best targets today. Gigau and randy are playing quite similar to last game when they were both villagers, and randy especially is more aggressive as a wolf with accusations and the like. Maybe trespoe, but there's people who I'm more suspicious of voting for him, so I'm ignoring him for now.
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What people do you mean, pray tell?

Kingepyon said:
Split catches my attention, esp the night 0 hunt, but I didn't choose him for today. He could be a wolf, but I think Johho sticks out more.
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I'm not sure I understand why he sticks out, though. What is it?

Kingepyon said:
Najs, tornadoli and Thandros are in that group of suspects largely because they have come out on the positive side of Johhos votes. On the last day with no wolves voting method and who gained/lost and who was run up and who was ignored comes into account. Since we haven't lynched any wolves I can assume that the wolves are working together to keep other wolves out of bad situations.
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Unlike in Big, you mean, where it appears the Yellow pack has been quite backstab-happy..
I wouldn't entirely rule it out, though. But it will really have to wait until we actually *find* any wolves.


Tornadoli said:
Vote Kingyepon

Pulling out too much of an analysis from so little data seems like a wolf desperately trying to look like a goodie.
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.. or a goodie grasping at straws?

Really, I can't really tell when King is a wolf or when he isn't, usually. I try to keep him alive because as a goodie he is pretty darn useful, but he's a pretty darn good baddie, too.

THE_SPLIT said:
Vote Kingyepon, I do agree with Torn, this is looking like BS situation. Why is trespoe still alive?
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Because you're not voting him? :p


johho888 said:
But we have to start analyzing sooner or later, just random voting can't possibly be the way to go for a village.
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Especially given the villager death toll. We're at day, what, 4? And no dead wolves at all. And we can't rely on there being a Seer to pull our coals out of the fire..

johho888 said:
Can something be found from who was hunted, maybe? Sometimes wolfpacks hunt people who would be cleared if a pack member is found out.

...

Bah. That didn't really say much. But might as well back that up with a vote after "all" the work.
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No, not really.

And a quick look at third voters gives me nothing, either. The votes are all over the place.


Vote Thandros

No reason. Other than that I'm deliberately ignoring the apparent split-snoopdogg feud here and think that Johho has enough votes already.
 
THE_SPLIT said:
Vote Kingyepon, I do agree with Torn, this is looking like BS situation. Why is trespoe still alive?
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And you said the same thing about Snoop in post 165.

Vote SPLIT

On a side note: I have been way too busy in the Big to pay much attention here, but I had been hoping for a JL contact or seer announcement here, but it begins to look like we have no seer. This would mean either the 4 wolves with GA or 3 wolves with only villagers. If the first setup, without lynching a wolf, we lose today. If the second, we still have one day if we fail to lynch a wolf today. We need to go with someone we all agree with.
 
Oh great. Umm Looking at it Kingyepon looks like a good target. All Votes are on known villages. Not much but did help make sure villager snoop was lynched instead of the unknown trespoe.

Vote Kingyepon
 
Votecount, unofficial style.

(3) Kinge - Torn, Split, Thandros

(2) Split - gigau, trespoe
(2) Thandros - johho, Randy

(1) johho - Kinge
 
Tornadoli said:
Vote Kingyepon

Pulling out too much of an analysis from so little data seems like a wolf desperately trying to look like a goodie.
Click to expand...

THE_SPLIT said:
Vote Kingyepon, I do agree with Torn, this is looking like BS situation. Why is trespoe still alive?
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I'll ALWAYS give a reason, no matter how bad it is. What I posted is less analysis, and more why I decided to vote for Johho.

Am I trying too hard, sure.

If I am a wolf, why would I risk the last day when people are confused and have nothing to go on and stick out my neck like this?

Unvote Johho
Vote Split
 
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randakar said:
What people do you mean, pray tell?
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The others I listed, except split. Torn, Najs, and Thandros. I doubt the fact that all 3 of them (+johho) are wolves, but I don't doubt that we'll find 1 or 2 in there.

I'm not sure I understand why he sticks out, though. What is it?
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Well, from what I get of the situation split and hdk have been feuding. HDK was hunted night 0, so that's why I say the night 0 hunt(did I say the night 0 hunt?). It could be someone else, so I didn't really think much about it so I've been ignoring it until now. The second part of that is Split is claiming suspicion and then ignoring the person when he votes. He's been doing it for a large part of the game. I think this "setting up" of suspicion is helping lead the village to who he wants lynched, which is why I've been largely voting opposite of him to see if he's trying to protect someone.


Unlike in Big, you mean, where it appears the Yellow pack has been quite backstab-happy..
I wouldn't entirely rule it out, though. But it will really have to wait until we actually *find* any wolves.
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It's usually thanks to the wolves that we lynch other wolves in the first few days. Most players are terrible at voting so they can't really control the vote as well as others. The reason I chose Johho, is not only do his votes not seem suspicious at the time, they're well placed and get specific people out of trouble.


.. or a goodie grasping at straws?
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I'd feel bad if I just cruised through this game doing nothing.

Really, I can't really tell when King is a wolf or when he isn't, usually. I try to keep him alive because as a goodie he is pretty darn useful, but he's a pretty darn good baddie, too.
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In this situation, a wolf would let the village self-destruct. There's no need for a wolf to stick their neck out. Those claiming I'm a wolf because I decide to stick my neck out are silly.

And I'm more than happy to switch back to johho, if others will lend their support.
 
J-L Announcement

Johho has been scanned and found to be a pesky wolf.




Unvote The_Split
Vote Johho

 
Well, now that the initial "oh I could be right" is over, I need to look at whether or not this seems to be true.

We have a chance that a seer is not in game, so this could be a fake, but we also have Myself, Split, and Thandros being run up.

If we assume that the wolves need to do this in order to achieve parity, why would they not have taken the change to vote Johho when I gave it to them?

(Again, based of the assumption that this is fake) The wolves also wouldn't take the chance on this outing unless they needed to, which means that split, myself, and thandros are likely wolves. Why would we be intent/running each other up if we needed to get out of it?

I don't think this outing is fake, just really last second.
 
You are being played. I am not a wolf. So if you follow whoever says so it will be game over and parity tonight.
 
johho888 said:
You are being played. I am not a wolf. So if you follow whoever says so it will be game over and parity tonight.
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Well, the easiest way to determine if it's fake or not is the GA can speak up. We're likely not doing a Fall gelb, as we would have to be incredibly unlucky in order to leave 7/8 special roles alive.

If we're playing Fall rot, we have another day so this outing just leaves us more information.

And if we really do have a seer, then if this is a fake outing then the seer(or someone on behalf of the seer) can speak up.
 
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