I think I made the wrong decision in rejecting that team, but we will see whether I was right in doing so.
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Mission 2 is FAILED. There were two SUPPORT orders and one SABOTAGE order.
That makes the count 1-1 on Success vs. Failure.
Round 3
jpr123 is the new leader. His cards are:
Strong Leader – One time use - The player to whom the Leader passes this card may use this card to become the Leader. Use of this card must be declared before Plot Cards are drawn by the GM. When a "Strong Leader" is played, another "Strong Leader" may not be played until a Vote has been taken.
and
Establish Confidence – Use immediately – The Leader must choose one other player publicly. The GM will reveal the Leader's Role to that player in PM.
Note that Establish Confidence must be used immediately (for our purposes, as soon as the leader sees this) and is not passed but used by the leader himself.
Mission 3 requires a 3-person team.
jpr123 can pass and use the cards and propose a team whenever ready.
That makes the count 1-1 on Success vs. Failure.
Round 3
jpr123 is the new leader. His cards are:
Strong Leader – One time use - The player to whom the Leader passes this card may use this card to become the Leader. Use of this card must be declared before Plot Cards are drawn by the GM. When a "Strong Leader" is played, another "Strong Leader" may not be played until a Vote has been taken.
and
Establish Confidence – Use immediately – The Leader must choose one other player publicly. The GM will reveal the Leader's Role to that player in PM.
Note that Establish Confidence must be used immediately (for our purposes, as soon as the leader sees this) and is not passed but used by the leader himself.
Mission 3 requires a 3-person team.
jpr123 can pass and use the cards and propose a team whenever ready.
Well then seems to me that Cyms is most likely a spy. Odd behaviour in originally choosing a team that doesn't include himself then using strong leader to include himself in the next one. Not that I'm discounting citizen yet.
Pass Establish Confidence to Falc - Hopefully he will publicly state I'm not a spy so suspicion doesn't fall on me.
Pass Strong Leader to Marty99
I propose a team of:
Myself
Falc
Tamius
Pass Establish Confidence to Falc - Hopefully he will publicly state I'm not a spy so suspicion doesn't fall on me.
Pass Strong Leader to Marty99
I propose a team of:
Myself
Falc
Tamius
I will confirm that jpr is Resistance.
Need to work out the odds here and gather information.
Need to work out the odds here and gather information.
Ah.
Rather large point of order.
After playing Strong Leader, the next Leader is the next person on the roster after the person who played the card. After Cymsdale comes Citizen...
We're perhaps a bit far along to wind it back, so I'd suggest changing the order.
Rather large point of order.
After playing Strong Leader, the next Leader is the next person on the roster after the person who played the card. After Cymsdale comes Citizen...
We're perhaps a bit far along to wind it back, so I'd suggest changing the order.
Grmbl.
It's clear I made a few errors transcribing the actual rules.
Correction to the rules:
Note that, withmore than 7 7 or more players, the 4th Mission requires at least two sabotages to fail.
It's clear I made a few errors transcribing the actual rules.
Correction to the rules:
Note that, with
Certainties (from my POV):
1) I'm Resistance
2) JPR is Resistance
3) If Cymsdale is Resistance, then so is tamius
4) If tamius is a Spy, then so is Cymsdale
5) One of Cymsdale and Citizen is a Spy (or both).
I think Cymsdale's action make most sense as a Resistance, so that leads me to me, JPR, Cymsdale and tamius as Resistance.
I will continue on this assumption until proven wrong.
APPROVE TEAM
1) I'm Resistance
2) JPR is Resistance
3) If Cymsdale is Resistance, then so is tamius
4) If tamius is a Spy, then so is Cymsdale
5) One of Cymsdale and Citizen is a Spy (or both).
I think Cymsdale's action make most sense as a Resistance, so that leads me to me, JPR, Cymsdale and tamius as Resistance.
I will continue on this assumption until proven wrong.
APPROVE TEAM
Citizen makes lots of sense. I'm thinking of a Resistance of me, him, marty and Xarkan, and Spies of Falc, jpr and Cymsdale. Of course, this means I probably revealed my role to the wrong person.
I Reject the team.
I stand by my statement that I reckon there were 2 spies in the failed 3-person team, and my potential Spy set fits with jpr's decision to give his card to Falc.
I Reject the team.
I stand by my statement that I reckon there were 2 spies in the failed 3-person team, and my potential Spy set fits with jpr's decision to give his card to Falc.
If those were the spies why would we make several multi-spy teams? Wouldn't it make more sense to try and get a single spy on a team? Remember that spies can't communicate outside the thread, so if two were in a single team it's likely that we would have more than one person sabotage the mission. If you then get multiple sabotages all members of that team become prime suspects, so it makes no sense to have more than a single spy in a team. Therefore your logic is flawed Tamius.
Falc has done more analysing who the spies are than anyone else so out of everyone seemed most likely to be another member of the resistance, although I still can't be sure. And I was also going to try and trust that cyms told the truth when he said you were a resistance member. That was the logic behind my team and if you really are a member of the resistance I would ask you to change your vote. Once again not only does it seem to me one of the teams that is more likely to succeed but also a team that will reveal more than any other if it fails.
Falc has done more analysing who the spies are than anyone else so out of everyone seemed most likely to be another member of the resistance, although I still can't be sure. And I was also going to try and trust that cyms told the truth when he said you were a resistance member. That was the logic behind my team and if you really are a member of the resistance I would ask you to change your vote. Once again not only does it seem to me one of the teams that is more likely to succeed but also a team that will reveal more than any other if it fails.
Right, let's do analysis.
These are the 3-player combinations possible, by first letter of name (using 1 for Citizen):
At least 1 of Cymsdale, Citizen and jpr is a spy. So this means any spy-team with just me, Falc, Xarkan and marty cannot exist:
It cannot be the case that jpr is a spy whilst Falc is resistance (as Falc would reveal jpr is a spy):
nor can it be the case that I am a spy if Cymsdale is resistance:
So far my thought of CJF fits.
Since all of this is certain, we can work out the probability of a player being a spy, based on how many teams they feature in. There are 18 possible teams, and of those:
C is in 11/17
F is in 10/17
1 is in 7/17
X is in 7/17
M is in 7/17
J is in 3/17
T is in 3/17
Make of those probabilities what you will. There are no players cleared or convicted yet.
These are the 3-player combinations possible, by first letter of name (using 1 for Citizen):
XC1 XCJ XCT XCF XCM
X1J X1T X1F X1M
XJT XJF XJM
XTF XTM
XFM
C1J C1T C1F C1M
CJT CJF CJM
CTF CTM
CFM
1JT 1JF 1JM
1TF 1TM
1FM
JTF JTM JFM
TFM
X1J X1T X1F X1M
XJT XJF XJM
XTF XTM
XFM
C1J C1T C1F C1M
CJT CJF CJM
CTF CTM
CFM
1JT 1JF 1JM
1TF 1TM
1FM
JTF JTM JFM
TFM
At least 1 of Cymsdale, Citizen and jpr is a spy. So this means any spy-team with just me, Falc, Xarkan and marty cannot exist:
XC1 XCJ XCT XCF XCM
X1J X1T X1F X1M
XJT XJF XJM
C1J C1T C1F C1M
CJT CJF CJM
CTF CTM
CFM
1JT 1JF 1JM
1TF 1TM
1FM
JTF JTM JFM
X1J X1T X1F X1M
XJT XJF XJM
C1J C1T C1F C1M
CJT CJF CJM
CTF CTM
CFM
1JT 1JF 1JM
1TF 1TM
1FM
JTF JTM JFM
It cannot be the case that jpr is a spy whilst Falc is resistance (as Falc would reveal jpr is a spy):
XC1 XCT XCF XCM
X1T X1F X1M
XJF
C1T C1F C1M
CJF
CTF CTM
CFM
1JF
1TF 1TM
1FM
JFM
X1T X1F X1M
XJF
C1T C1F C1M
CJF
CTF CTM
CFM
1JF
1TF 1TM
1FM
JFM
nor can it be the case that I am a spy if Cymsdale is resistance:
XC1 XCT XCF XCM
X1F X1M
XJF
C1T C1F C1M
CJF
CTF CTM
CFM
1JF
1FM
JFM
X1F X1M
XJF
C1T C1F C1M
CJF
CTF CTM
CFM
1JF
1FM
JFM
So far my thought of CJF fits.
Since all of this is certain, we can work out the probability of a player being a spy, based on how many teams they feature in. There are 18 possible teams, and of those:
C is in 11/17
F is in 10/17
1 is in 7/17
X is in 7/17
M is in 7/17
J is in 3/17
T is in 3/17
Make of those probabilities what you will. There are no players cleared or convicted yet.
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Proposing a team with more than one Spy in it is quite stupid since you're not allowed to coordinate. You're bound to get more than one Sabotage when you don't need it and that is ruinous for the Spies.
I also like the fact that you don't remove yourself from the potential Spies
I also like the fact that you don't remove yourself from the potential Spies
Would that mean the citizen1oo1 would come next, then?
That could be fixed by switching the order so that his spot is now after jpr123.
How strange that you both know this. Maybe you're both Spies?!
You can assume (I haven't yet made any assumptions, so this may not be true) that of C, 1 and J there is 1 spy and 1 spy only:
XCT XCF XCM
X1F X1M
XJF
CTF CTM
CFM
1FM
JFM
X1F X1M
XJF
CTF CTM
CFM
1FM
JFM
And thereafter from the present proposal of J, F and T that there is no more than one spy in J and F or J and T, assuming jpr wouldn't knowingly put two spies in his team:
XCT XCF XCM
X1F X1M
CTF CTM
CFM
1FM
X1F X1M
CTF CTM
CFM
1FM
This clears jpr.
We could also remove any spy-team containing Xarkan and Cymsdale together, assuming Xarkan would not propose 2 spies for a 2 man team:
X1F X1M
CTF CTM
CFM
1FM
CTF CTM
CFM
1FM
Clearing me, thanks to Falc:
X1F X1M
CFM
1FM
CFM
1FM
And we could even clear Citizen based on the fact that he was in a successful team:
CFM
Leaving Cymsdale, Falc and Marty as the spies!
But the further you go down the continued analysis in this post the more tenuous the logic becomes. I'd prefer anyone used post 128 for useful knowledge; this post is much more speculative.
The mission team JTM produces just as much information if it fails (four of post 128's eighteen). It's also, by a small margin, the least likely to contain a spy.
Alternatively we could propose a mission team with three of the most likely spies (Cymsdale, Falc and Citizen, for example), and if we get multiple sabotages we get lots to work with. At the cost of a failed mission, of course, so it's not like there's a small risk.
I also like the fact that you don't remove yourself from the potential Spies
I'm trying to help
But I have managed to make myself the least likely Spy.
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That is indeed the fix I am proposing: we just pretend jpr came before citizen all along
Will do that. Maybe if the game appears more regularly, it can be more codified, and have the details laid out a little more explicitly.
That is indeed the fix I am proposing: we just pretend jpr came before citizen all along
Citizen already followed Cymsdale in the first round. Are we just going to let that lie?
Alright, well I was going for a chancy gambit and it seems to backfired a bit:
Step 1) Push for a team in round one that has two not-me people on it and hope we luck out and get two resistance so it succeeds. If it doesn't, whatever, we learn some information and the first round is a crap shoot anyway.
Step 2) If round one succeeds, take advantage of my strong leader card to put me with the same two for another easy success.
Step 3) Game won at that point because third team can simply be the same one.
But alas, either citizen or jpr is a spy who decided to support the first mission (I highly doubt both are spies) and it ends up putting me in an awkward position.
My known facts so far are:
1) I am not a spy.
2) Tamius is not a spy.
3) There is at least one spy among citizen/jpr
My strong assumptions:
1) There is ONLY one spy between citizen/jpr. Simple reason, spies cannot communicate, so only one of them sabotaging the second mission would be quite unlikely to happen without cheating.
Now, given above, that means that the remaining two spies are within Xarkan, Falc, Marty.
That's a very dangerous line of thinking. In the last game I was a spy, and I did plenty of analysis. In fact, while I was a spy, I introduced the whole alphabet-combo style for analysis. This does NOT mean that people who analyze heavily are likely spies, it just means it's dangerous to make assumptions from it.
Note to GM and future GM's: *Please* put who approved and disapproved of each mission in the game history from this point forward, it would make things much easier instead of having to dig around. It's not very useful to just see 5-2 approved.
OK, so back to Xarkan, Falc, Marty?
If JPR is the spy, it could point toward Falc/Marty because of his card hand outs. Those are cards you do not want to hand to the other team. It would also fit with Xarkan giving me his Strong Leader card because he would have essentially been handing it out at random as a resistance (although it looks like by "random" he just passed it to the next person in leader order, much how he picked his team).
I'm not comfortable making any new strong assumptions from these thoughts, because spies could easily choose to hand out cards "randomly" too. Afterall, if the spy setup really was JPR/Falc/Marty, that pretty much means JPR just blundered the identity of his partners. Would he make such a mistake?
I have to think on things more.
Step 1) Push for a team in round one that has two not-me people on it and hope we luck out and get two resistance so it succeeds. If it doesn't, whatever, we learn some information and the first round is a crap shoot anyway.
Step 2) If round one succeeds, take advantage of my strong leader card to put me with the same two for another easy success.
Step 3) Game won at that point because third team can simply be the same one.
But alas, either citizen or jpr is a spy who decided to support the first mission (I highly doubt both are spies) and it ends up putting me in an awkward position.
My known facts so far are:
1) I am not a spy.
2) Tamius is not a spy.
3) There is at least one spy among citizen/jpr
My strong assumptions:
1) There is ONLY one spy between citizen/jpr. Simple reason, spies cannot communicate, so only one of them sabotaging the second mission would be quite unlikely to happen without cheating.
Now, given above, that means that the remaining two spies are within Xarkan, Falc, Marty.
That's a very dangerous line of thinking. In the last game I was a spy, and I did plenty of analysis. In fact, while I was a spy, I introduced the whole alphabet-combo style for analysis. This does NOT mean that people who analyze heavily are likely spies, it just means it's dangerous to make assumptions from it.
Note to GM and future GM's: *Please* put who approved and disapproved of each mission in the game history from this point forward, it would make things much easier instead of having to dig around. It's not very useful to just see 5-2 approved.
OK, so back to Xarkan, Falc, Marty?
If JPR is the spy, it could point toward Falc/Marty because of his card hand outs. Those are cards you do not want to hand to the other team. It would also fit with Xarkan giving me his Strong Leader card because he would have essentially been handing it out at random as a resistance (although it looks like by "random" he just passed it to the next person in leader order, much how he picked his team).
I'm not comfortable making any new strong assumptions from these thoughts, because spies could easily choose to hand out cards "randomly" too. Afterall, if the spy setup really was JPR/Falc/Marty, that pretty much means JPR just blundered the identity of his partners. Would he make such a mistake?
I have to think on things more.
I'd like to think I'm not that stupid
The fact I revealed my role to Falc then proposed a team with the two of us in should clear me of being a spy. Even my inexperienced self can see that proposing a team with multiple spies in it is shooting yourself in the foot. And I never said Falc was clear, he just "felt" less spy like than anyone else, but I'm obviously not removing him from possibly being a spy.
The fact I revealed my role to Falc then proposed a team with the two of us in should clear me of being a spy. Even my inexperienced self can see that proposing a team with multiple spies in it is shooting yourself in the foot. And I never said Falc was clear, he just "felt" less spy like than anyone else, but I'm obviously not removing him from possibly being a spy.
Well, it appears the rules jump the leadership role to that players space in line. I was thinking it was a case of the card player simply usurping that spot in line; rather, it skips it forward or back, passing over any intervening spaces in line. So, Cymsdale, being leader once, then played the card to become leader again, which means that citizen1oo1 gets another shot. I wasn't clear on the rule, but it's easy enough to fix through switching spots between citizen1oo1 and jpr123. Otherwise, leader order is not changed.
Ok, from here forward I will link each item in the log to the post where the event occurs.