Odd, I kinda suspected Arkasas as a wolf. Thanks for making things easier.
I was thinking the same, myself.
Why is MC inherently so much more valuable to so many people?
Vote Madchemist for now. I really don't like just how many people have supported MC for no real reason.
Hmm, I don't know, Maybe it's because I have a fairly well-established track record of identifying wolves, at least when I'm not busy fighting off mindless accusations?
It is about who are really important to have for the village in the late game. In the same way one shouldn't randomly lynch randy, skobie or marty either.
This. As long as the seer's alive, there's never a good reason to lynch me, as I'll usually prove my innocence by finding a wolf, or I'll be scanned early.
Madchemist was likely scanned first. What would happen if he was a wolf?
Arkasas tried to lynch Madchemist for realz, and ended up hunted. So was Arkasas scanned second and trying to get a Wolfchemist lynched? Or, was Arkasas just simply being an idiot, but it was enough to make a Wolfchemist believe he was a scanee or seer.
Despite asking for myself to be scanned, the seer has rudely not complied, so I don't know the answers to any of this stuff directly. I can only speculate.
Considering that it would be impossible for both Ark and myself to be scanned on night 0, this scenario is a bit unlikely, to put it mildly.
Please inform us how MC typically chooses his hunt targets.
From my experience he doesn't hunt people who nearly hang him.
I'd say I usually don't hunt my main accusers as a wolf, since I trust in my ability to get them lynched in my stead. If I get lynched, the people who accuse me usually get hunted afterwards, but not if I survive.
You didn't really answer my question. Since you seem to have insight in how he picks his targets, what method does he use? Is he consistent in how he picks his targets, does he always hunt the same way?
And why wouldn't he hunt Arkasas? The best target to hit in a wolf hunt is going to be the seer, and the second best is a villager who has been scanned by the seer, so I find it a bit odd to say that someone would avoid hunting someone who is specifically giving signs of possibly being one of these things. It just seems like you are throwing out keywords to try scare the village off. "Revenge hunt, oh that sounds bad! It's almost like a revenge vote! Madchemist would not do that!"
I'm not even voting Madchemist, I was just speculating on one potential scenario behind the last hunt, but I'm finding your defense against it to be a bit strange and vague.
This is sound logic. If I was a wolf, what Ark did could have potentially seemed like what a seer might do and may have been worth a hunt. It's plausible.
That said, I'm not a wolf and I didn't make that hunt, but I won't deny that it's something I might do as a wolf, even if it would look bad for me.
I'm sorry, but I don't follow this. How can Arkasas have been scanned second on day 1? The seer only had his Night 0 scan. Your theory that Arkasas knew MC was a wolf only works if Arkasas was the seer which he wasn't.
This.
Also, I think MC is smart enough to realize how badly that hunt would look for him and it seems more likely that the pack is trying to throw attention on him, but that's just how I see it.
That sounds like how I'd defend myself if I was a wolf. :laugh:
But I agree that this is a reasonable explanation for that hunt.
You are correct, I messed up how many scans would have taken place by that time.
Thank you for actually taking the time to find a real flaw in my argument rather than just make a vague complaint that I'm being "aggressive".
If MC is not a wolf, then the chance Wagonlitz is a wolf has gone up significantly. Are you familiar with the concept of a reverse-alibi?
As far as I'm concerned, you're always pretty aggressive. But that's usually a good sign from you, not the reverse.
I think you are making a reverse-alibi out as something a lot more complicated than it is. In fact, what you describe in your post isn't really a reverse-alibi at all. It's simply the use of wolf knowledge (they know who all the not-wolves are) to appear more helpful to a village. If the village seems intent on lynching someone (they know to be a village) for something that appears to be a legitimate reason, a wolf can make themselves out to be a more sane/logical/smart "villager" by questioning the value of that lynch.
"Seems like a goodie to me" is a very powerful wolf move. Not only does it make the village trust them more if they end up correct, it tends to make the player they blessed be more trusting of the wolf.
It's funny, because that sort of thing actually gets wolves caught on occasion; they try to be too clever and say players are good when there is an excellent case on them and no logical reason to expect that they are villagers. The people who question a lynch that makes a lot of sense, despite being wrong, are often the ones to look out for.
