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Here's a question for someone who knows more about miitary logistics than I do: what would have happened RL if Rommel hadn't made a dash for Egypt? Would he have had the resources to reach Cairo and Alexandria if he had taken it slower? Or would the Brits have been able to block him off anyway?
 
All right... I get prepared for the stoning.

Rommel was a good division commander. I mean a really good one. But... he should never have climbed higher.
His legend is totally artificial too : at this time, the Reich needed a hero (two, actually : Goebbel's propaganda did the same with Dietl) and the Brits, a scapegoat to explain the failure of their (even worse) generals. As a result : the Rommel we "know" today !
In reality, the man was a raging bull, stubborn, arrogant, with a total lack of diplomacy (which explains his poor relationships with Commando Supremo). He had no idea of the leading of a corps (not to mention army or army group), no knowledge of logistics and, despite indubitable leading qualities, he was in fact totally ruthless regarding the life of his men. He was also lacking tactical imagination in the long run...

This being said, the rest is self explanatory : Rommel lost a considerable amount of time and wasted his potential (75% of his tanks) in frontal attacks during his offensive of May-June 1942 (Bir Hakeim, Tobruk...) so that the Axis forces were already out of steam when Rommel decided to enter in Egypt in July.
Though the lack of supply played a role, the main reason of the failure at El Alamein (first battle 07/42) is mainly due to the ratio of forces (3 to 1 in artillery and tanks in favour of the Brits) and a predictable german battle plan easily foiled by the Brits.
 
Predictable especially when Rommel was out sick in Sicily and Monty had his orders decrypted in his back pocket. Let's not forget he managed everything with the barest ammount of reinforcements, limited political support, and reluctant allies (main problem was the overall command was given to an Italian general that was WAY out of his league - hence the constant clashes with Rommel).
As for the Ostfront... It looks good. Maybe too good. I'm afraid the Siberian Army will descend on a totally unprepared Wermacht and reap bloody vengeance.
 
a great update! and you have outpaced not only Rommel, but the entire Generalität in the East
 
Predictable especially when Rommel was out sick in Sicily and Monty had his orders decrypted in his back pocket. Let's not forget he managed everything with the barest ammount of reinforcements, limited political support, and reluctant allies (main problem was the overall command was given to an Italian general that was WAY out of his league - hence the constant clashes with Rommel).
I was referring to the 1st Battle of El Alamein (Rommel vs Auchinleck 07/42), not the 2nd one (Stumme, then Rommel, vs Montgomery 10/42).
For the rest, beware of the clichés and historical shortcuts...
The Italian High-Command, and General Bastico in particular, wasn't that bad and in numerous cases, he had a far better strategic overview than Rommel. High-ranking officers, both Italian and German (Kesselring among them) perfectly knew what kind of man Rommel was, what he could achieve and what not. But he was Hitler's protégé...
Also true that the Brits could decode some of the German signals (mostly from the Luftwaffe) but thanks to their Nachrichten Fernsehsendung Aufklarung Kompanie 621 (Signals Intercept Company 621), and more important through the penetration of the Black Code used by Colonel Fellers, the US Military Attaché in Cairo, the Germans had, until July '42, an accurate -and probably better- picture of the situation.

As for the Ostfront... It looks good. Maybe too good. I'm afraid the Siberian Army will descend on a totally unprepared Wermacht and reap bloody vengeance.
a great update! and you have outpaced not only Rommel, but the entire Generalität in the East
I think seeing those pincers close around Moscow just looks absolutely stunning, 10/10. :cool:
Keep your upper lip stiff : the war isn't over yet...
I know the situation looks good but there're nearly 300 Soviet divisions coming up at an alarming rate within the next 12 months. :eek:
 
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Rommel was a good division commander. I mean a really good one. But... he should never have climbed higher.
His legend is totally artificial too : at this time, the Reich needed a hero (two, actually : Goebbel's propaganda did the same with Dietl) and the Brits, a scapegoat to explain the failure of their (even worse) generals. As a result : the Rommel we "know" today !
In reality, the man was a raging bull, stubborn, arrogant, with a total lack of diplomacy (which explains his poor relationships with Commando Supremo). He had no idea of the leading of a corps (not to mention army or army group), no knowledge of logistics and, despite indubitable leading qualities, he was in fact totally ruthless regarding the life of his men. He was also lacking tactical imagination in the long run...

This being said, the rest is self explanatory : Rommel lost a considerable amount of time and wasted his potential (75% of his tanks) in frontal attacks during his offensive of May-June 1942 (Bir Hakeim, Tobruk...) so that the Axis forces were already out of steam when Rommel decided to enter in Egypt in July.
Though the lack of supply played a role, the main reason of the failure at El Alamein (first battle 07/42) is mainly due to the ratio of forces (3 to 1 in artillery and tanks in favour of the Brits) and a predictable german battle plan easily foiled by the Brits.

Good points all. No stoning from me.
 
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Actually, contrary to a lot of modern assessments, Rommel wasn't really that bad at logistics. The simple problem with supply in North Africa at this time was: A. The lack of developed infrastructure, and B. The lack of large deep water harbors capable of operating with enough tonnage to supply an army. There is also the major problem created when adding these together, and that is the difficulty of moving the supplies from the ports to the front. As this excellent assessment states
The first thing that should be highlighted is the distances involved. According to MapCrow it is approximately 1500 kilometres (985 miles) from Tripoli to Alexandria (i.e. a likely final bastion of British power in North Africa), or alternatively 930km (580 miles) from Benghazi to the same destination. To contextualise just how long a distance that is to cart supplies let’s compare it to the Eastern Front - it was about 965km (600 miles) from German occupied Poland to Moscow.
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This distance would naturally have to be covered by supply trucks carrying fuel, ammunition, rations, spare parts, and all the other provisions needed for a corps or army sized formation. These of course run on fuel of their own, and it is estimated that around 50% of the fuel shipped to North Africa was used by these trucks. It is the same problem run into by the Red Ball Express in France: you need to transport enough fuel to supply the front and the supply line maintaining that front. Even further compounding problems, the nature of the desert itself is terrible for vehicles. The wear experienced by tanks, trucks, armored cars, etc. is greatly enhanced by driving in sand, so this requires more spare parts and even replacement vehicles. These are also more difficult to transport first to Africa, and then to the front, already suffering wear from this journey. I would also like to mention that El Alamein was a battle for the British to lose, not for the Germans to win. It's location in between the sea and the Qattara Depression means that the British positions were unflankable, and the key to Rommel's earlier successes were in maneuver and superior tactics. The terrain of El Alamein was just perfect to stop the Axis offensive, with high ground and depressions covering the area. Simply looking at the numbers as you did means the battle is impossible to win, similar to Kursk, and "predictable German tactics" really were predictable because they were the only possible options.

While I do agree with your assessments of Rommel as an army/army group commander, and to an extent corps commander, I do disagree somewhat. Like you said, great divisional commander, perfect personality for that role. Corps commander, he was too sporadic for it. von Mellenthin's "Panzer Battles" describes how he would be away from headquarters for extended periods, whilst scouting the front and leading formations, leaving his staff to do his job at times. I believe in different scenarios, with a clear superior to rein him in, he would have been a much better corps commander. If for example he would have served as a corps commander on the Eastern Front under a panzerarmee commander, he would have been more successful. That is just my 2 cents, or rather more like 50, collected from readings of biographies, battlefield accounts, and campaign histories from the African Campaign.
 
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Being "good" at logistics doesn't mean that you're performing miracles but rather that you're fully aware of your difficulties and that you can adapt your advance, your strategy, according to them.
Tactics works exactly the same. Depending on the odds, troops experience, morale, equipment, a good commanding officer will choose the right place and moment to engage, or not, the enemy (no 1 to 3 battle against a well entrenched opponent, without outflanking possibilities, for instance...)
In both cases, it implies that you know the situation and/or that you listen to the guys who are fully aware of it.

And THAT was Rommel's main issue : he didn't listen...! I had very long talks on this topic with his son when I was working with im in '93-'94 in Stuttgart : Gause, Westphal and other subordonates and divisions commanders were very often near the nervous breakdown because of his decisions and his arguments with the Comando Supremo are well known too. For the little history, it was Rommel who convinced Hitler, by boasting the seizure of the Suez Canal, to cancel the invasion of Malta ; this, against the advices of Mussolini, Cavallero, Bastico and even Kesselring ! We know the rest of it...

On Rommel's defense however, his position as "hero of the German Reich" wasn't the easiest to manage and being a Prima Donna can go to somebody's head real quick.
On a remote theater like Africa, it's even more true. A. o. that was the reason why the OKW didn't send von Manstein (Jodl's first choice) to lead the DAK in 02/41. His reputation of stubborn SoB being well established already.
 
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They may have less than 6 divisions available, considering what you have done so far. What is Iraq's status? Are you seeing any Iraqi divisions?
 
In the next update, the OKW will also make a full briefing on the current situation in the Middle-East... and what they intend to do, or not.

Thanks to the Intel provided by Comando Supremo (Italy is allied to Iraq), at least 5 british divisions are engaged to counter the uprising over there. One more has been seen in Kuwait and one is currently being in Port Saïd along with the Gurkha brigade defending Suez. There are also rumors about Canadian unitS in Palestine but it hasn't been confirmed yet.
 
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1941
October 12th - October 21st

"Unternehmen 'Taifun'... Continuation"



Hauptquartier der HeeresGruppe E, Belgrad- 1941, October the 11th - 0900
Feldmarschall List, CO HGr. E, on the phone with General Böhme, CO XVIII. AK.

- General Böhme... I assume you have been informed already ?
_ In det Tat, Herr Feldmarschall. I've got a phone call from MBfH 'Serbien' early this morning : it seems that a major uprising is currently taking place in Sombor, in the north of the country.
- True. That's right in the middle of your operating area. It's up to you to take care of this issue, General !
- With all due respect, Herr Feldmarschall, may I ask HOW and more important with WHAT am I suppose to deal with those damned partisans ??!!! Since the departure of the 6. Gebirgs-Division, I don't have any troops at my disposal !!! Should I send the clerks and cooks of my headquarter to fight ?
- I'm aware of this problem, General, and I warned the OKW on numerous occasions.
I'll send you the 22. Luftlande-Division from the HGR. E's reserves and the Inf.-Rgt 125 (mot.), coming from 12. Armee's reserves has been assigned too.

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Another uprising in Yugoslavia
- Herr Feldmarschall, it will take days to gather the troops and to have them ready to engage the enemy. We run the risk to see the partisans spreading all across the country.
What about the Russiches Schutzkorps ?
- The unit has just been formed and it's not ready for an engagement before one or two months.
I'm afraid we don't have any other option left for the moment. The II. Fliegerkorps is suppose to arrive in Belgrad by tomorrow. Instead of a well deserved R&R, I'll ask the Luftwaffe to send it against the spotted partisan's positions. It should keep them busy until our ground troops arrive, General Böhme.
- Well... I'll do my best, Herr Feldmarschall. But, please, tell the OKW we really need more troops here. All our Intel confirmed that what see today is only a beginning : the worse is still to come..."


GefechtsStab des XXXXI. Armeekorps (mot.), Kalinin - 1941, October the 16th - 1800
General Model, newly appointed CO XXXXI. AK (mot.) on radio network with General Hoepner, CO 4. Panzergruppe.

- "Model... Is it true ? has it been confirmed ?
- Jawohl, Herr General ! Despite the risks due to the VVS, I sent my adjudant with a Fieseler 'Storch' to be sure. The report of General von Thoma is true :
His 6. PzD made contact with the vanguards of the SS-Division 'Das Reich' while they were crossing the Moskva river. Moscow is now encircled, Herr General !!!
Furthermore, after what von Thoma have been told of, the 10. PzD would be close behind 'Das Reich'. No doubt that General Guderian will start attacking the Russian Capital right away.
- Schneller Heinz... Dieser Hitzkopf...!!! Sure he wants to be the first on the Red Square but I don't think the battle for Moscow will be that simple.

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Moscow encircled !
- What are the orders, Herr General ?
- Where are your other divisions ?
- Both 1. PzD and 36. ID (mot.) are in Pushkino, 40km behind. I already ordered to move the 1. PzD further east to secure my left flank.
- Good ! Let's move the 36. ID (mot.) to Shchelkovo too. Once there, the 6. PzD will move eastards too in order to widden the ring around Moscow. We must avoid any Soviet relief attempt at all costs !!!
From Shchelkovo, the 36. ID (mot.) will be able to join the attack against the Russian Capital.
- This division has been badly mauled already, Herr General. Even with the 10. PzD and 'Das Reich', I'm not sure it will be enough to win. Ivan is supposed to have more than 100.000 men in Moscow.
- Guderian will commit his full XXXXVI. AK (mot.) and half his XXIV. AK (mot.) in this battle. These units shouldn't be far away by now. Furthermore, I've just been notified that the LVI. AK (mot.) finally broke through the Soviet defenses at Himki. I'll commit the 3. ID (mot.) to the attack on Moscow and I'll ask von Kluge to engage his XII. AK either ; two of its divisions participated in the battle of Himki.
- That would give us 9 divisions to take Moscow, Herr General. I think we'll make it.
- See you on the Red Square, Walter !"


Hauptquartier der HeeresGruppe Nord, Pskov- 1941, October the 17th - 0930
Feldmarschall von Leeb, CO HGR. Nord, meets General von Küchler, CO 18. Armee, and General von Manstein, CO 11. Armee.

- "General von Küchler, at first, I want to congratulate you and your men for the hard battle you won at Oraniyenbaum on October the 15th.
- A costly victory, Herr Feldmarschall... Nearly 10.000 men lost. Combined to the 12.000 men that Erich and I already lost at Gatcina, I would advise to take some days for R&R.
- Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you but we have a situation here :
Both 20. Gebirgsarmee and 16. Armee are moving east to follow the advance of Heeresgruppe 'Mitte' on Moscow. Unfortunatly, they're not strong enough to establish all by themselves a solid front between the Volga reservoir and the White Sea. That means... I'll have to engage one of YOUR armies to support them.
- But leaving only one of us dealing with the 200.000 Russkies trapped in Leningrad won't be enough to avoid a counter-attack ; we'll have to take the city by force then... Now.
- General von Manstein, you're fully right : a siege is no longer an option. Feldmarschall von Brauchitsch has been very clear on that point. regardless of casualties, we must take Leningrad ASAP !!!
Meine Herren, how are we going to proceed ?

TI6NdCd.jpg

The Battle of Leningrad has begun
- My 11. Armee is already in position, Herr Feldmarschall. I'll attack the city from the north with the XXX. AK and from the east with the LIV. AK. My heavy artillery units are already positionned there.
I'll keep the XI. AK in reserve so as to relieve Georg's XXVI. AK if needed.
- Good. General von Küchler ?
- I'll be attacking Leningrad with the XXVI. AK from the south and XXXVIII. AK from the south-west. I'm forced to leave the I. AK behind because of the casualties it sustained in both Gatcina and Orianiyenbaum.
What about the air support, Herr Feldmarschall ? I know that the guys from the Luftwaffe suffered a lot too. But we couldn't have won without them in Orianiyenbaum and I'm afraid we're going to sollicitate them badly for this operation as well...
- Both I. and V. Fliegerkorps have been assigned to the Battle for Leningrad. General Keller will check with everyone of you for the details.
General von Manstein, you're in charge of this operation ! How long do you expect it will take ?
- Mhmmmm... 200.000 men.. well entrenched, supplied... I'd say at least two weeks of tough fighting, may be three. For sure, you'll be able to "offer" Leningrad to the Führer right on time for his yearly speech at the Bürgerbräukeller...
- As if I care about that..."


OKW Hauptquartier, Zossen-Wünsdorf - 1941, October the 19th - 1300
General Jodl, CoS OKW, meets Foreign Minister von Ribbentropp and Admiral Canaris, Abwehr Chef (Head of Intelligence).

- "Herr Reichsminister, Admiral, I have good news coming from Africa :
After the decisive battle of Bi'r Abu Al Hudum, our troops managed to break through the British lines and their great base of Alexandria is currently encircled and hard pressed from all sides. It is now certain that it will fall in matter of a few days now.
In the same time, General Rommel sent some of his Italian divisions further east. You certainly saw the grandiose entrance of Mussolini in Cairo on the Wochenschau but you must also know that the Suez Canal has also been reached between Port Saïd and the town of Suez. Though a British counter-attack is currently taking place from Suez in the direction of Zagazig, General Gause, Rommel's CoS, is fully confident that the days of the British military presence in Egypt are soon going to be history.

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1941-10-21 - SitRep Afrika
Next week, Feldmarschall Keitel and I are going to have a meeting with the Führer to talk about the next operations on the African Theater but before that, meine Herren, I'd like to have your personal evaluation of the situation in the Middle-East. Herr Reichsminister ?
- Thanks to our successes in Africa but also in the current campaign against the Soviet Union, the German Reich is on a roll with most of the countries in this region. Since his coup d'état on April the 3rd, former Iraqi Prime Minister Rashid Ali al-Gaylani is in power and started a general uprising against the British military presence in Iraq. According to some talks I had with the former Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Amin al-Husseini, not only Iraq but also Persia and Sausi Arabia are just waiting for a sign from us to join our side in the war against England and, probably in the case of Persia, Russia .
I'm no military expert but even if their armed forces are nothing compared to ours, I'm pretty sure they could provide enough disturbance to let Rommel's units to drive deep inside Palestine and Iraq.

SninA75.png

Why are Turks acting like this...
Once there, and coupled with our advance into the Caucasus, our troops could help to have the Turks isolated and put under diplomatic pressure in order to keep them in line. Since the beginning of 1941, their attitude is quite dubious : though Turkey obviously wants to avoid a direct confrontation with the Great German Reich, the Turkish gouvernment desires to keep its commercial agreements with us to the lowest minimum. It also seems that Ankara would rather favour a rapprochement with Moscow...
- Mhmmmm... To be honest, Herr Reichsminister, I seriously doubt such a drive deep into the Middle-East would be possible. At least, not before a least 6 months... at best.
Yes, we achieved remarquable successes in Russia. Moscow and Leningrad are about to fall but even so, all indicates that Stalin won't make peace. The manpower of the Ostheer is of some great concern now and with the winter coming in, I'm pretty sure we're soon to be forced to stop our operations in the East.

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Casualties Westfront - October 21st, 1941
It's not any better in Africa. I grant you that winter isn't a big deal over there but the Panzergruppe 'Afrika' suffered quite some casualties and badly needs some R&R. Even worse, it's currently unknown IF and WHEN we're going to be able to send some replacements over there...!
Furthermore, and that's almost the most important point, our logistics in Africa is provided by our Italian allies, who have proven themselves quite... deficient, to say the least, on this aspect. It's one thing to move units on a map, Herr Reichsminister, it's another one to keep them combat-ready on the field.
Of course, we have a plan ready to support our Iraqi "friends" but the units assigned to Sonderstad F, later to be commited to Iraq, aren't ready yet. It will take some weeks before we can send them over there.

chGaAGA.jpg

SonderStab F
- Besides, the situation has changed on the ground.
- I beg your pardon, Admiral ?
- I've been informed that the British campaign to retake control over Iraq is making progress : Bagdad has fallen into British hands and my department estimates that it's only a matter of week before this so-called rebellion is struck. In any case, we can no longer use the airbase facilities of Bagdad. Furthermore...
- I'm all ears, Admiral.
- Furthermore, I don't think it would be a good idea to let the arab countries to join our side. At least not now.
- Explain yourself...
- It's quite simple, General : it's just a matter of interests. The arab countries, and Italy to a lesser extend, want to use us as much as we want to use them. But who's going to receive some benefits of our drive in the Middle-East ? Certainly we won't.
Since we're dependant of the Italian logitics, and unless some political agreements are made, all our gains on the ground will be under Italian control. Furthermore, if we make an alliance with Iraq, Persia and Saudi Arabia, I have no doubt that they'll leave us to do all the dirty job while their forces are going to seize the most important and most valuable parts of the countries we're goign to invade. In Russia, I'm pretty sure Ivan will send his best troops against us in the Caucasus, leaving his "back door", Baku, totally undefended. Persia will be able to take control of the oil fields without a hintch.
- A valid point, Admiral. I'm impressed !
But what do you think we should do ?
- To stay where we are now, on the Suez Canal and hold the line... at least.
- Why do you say "at least" ?
- Because we might consider to look West again, General.
Herr Reichsminister, do you remember the conversation we had in October last year ?
- About Spain and Vichy France ? Yes, I remember.
- Well, I'm telling you that Spain tends more and more to hear the siren song of London. Within two years, probably less, there will be a british friend in Madrid...
- After all we've done for him ? I can't believe it Admiral !
- General Jodl... Franco is a pragmatic man : He perfectly knows that the neutrality of the USA is merely a matter a appearance today. We're going to be at war with America very soon and the Caudillo don't want to have his country to be their first target.
- So... We should get rid of him : that's what you think, Admiral ?
- In the long run, we won't have any other choice if we're at war with the USA.
- But you exactly know as well as I do that it's not possible to send troops across the Pyrenees through the narrow corridor we have along the french coast. It's too easy to defend, even for the spanish army, and it would be a logistical nightmare after that. That means...
- Yeap, in order to succeed with Unternehmen 'Gisela', 'Anton' must be conducted first..."


Hauptquartier der HeeresGruppe Mitte, Smolensk- 1941, October the 21st - 1730
Feldmarschall von Bock, CO HGr. Mitte, meets General von Greiffenberg, his Chief of Staff.

- "Things are going well, Herr Feldmarschall ; it's almost too good to be true !
- If you skip over the casualties we sustain... For both Heeresgruppe 'Mitte' and Armeegruppe 'Weichs', we almost reached the mark of 150.000 men missing and it will keep going up with this battle !

pF7IHd8.jpg

Ostheer Manpower - October 21st, 1941
This being said, I grant you that the situation is far beyong my expectations. I thought we would have met more difficulties during the breakthrough.
- You had an excellent hintch when you asked the XXXXVIII. AK (mot.) to be transfered from the 1. Panzergruppe, Herr Feldmarschall. This addition made the difference.
- Mhmmm... Considering that Ivan massed his armored units in the Kalinin region, it was quite logical that the decision had to be made from the south. I think we could have succeded without it but the XXXXVIII. AK(mot.) will now help to securize the ring around Moscow ; we're now able to concentrate more means against the Russian Capital.
Anyway... The hard part has been done but there's still a lot of work to do. What's the situation ?
- From now on, our left flank is fully secured, Herr Feldmarschall : the 3. Panzergruppe reached the Volga Reservoir along with elements of the II. AK, 16. Armee.
I spoke with General Hoth : he'll let the 19. PzD to help until the II. AK is fully able to hold the line. He sent his full XXXIX. AK (mot.) across the Volga towards Jaroslav which remains undefended after the 1. PzD defeated the Soviet armored division holding it.
- Why didn't the 1. PzD take the city ?!!
- There was a huge gap between our XXXXI. and XXXX. AKs (mot.) ; therefore, General Model choosed to recall his division to fill it. I already checked and it seems that General Hoth and Hoepner already coordinated their efforts and authorized this manoeuver.
- ja, ja... Auftragtaktik, I know... Go on !

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Unternehmen 'Taifun' - October 21st
- After his victory at Himki, Hoepner is now attacking Moscow from the north and from the east while Guderian does the same from the south-east and from the south.
Hoepner's main effort concentrates now on Zvenigorod, the last communication line between Moscow and the rest of the Soviet forces inside the pocket. As soon as its units are resupplied, the XXIV. AK (mot.) will help from the south.
- Have you checked with the Luftwaffe ? Now that we control Kaluga, we should be able to get some air support very close to the front line.
- Well... General Löhr hasn't been very enthousiastic about it : his IV. Fliegerkorps is bound in Kharkov and his VIII. Fliegerkorps badly need replacements and it's still immobilized for R&R.
However, since General Keller agreed to send his Lehrgeschwader 2 to Kaluga, I'm quite sure that General Löhr will commit at least some elements of the VIII. Fliegerkorps, which fighters have just been relieved by units of the Fliegerführer 3.
- Ivan has over 250.000 men trapped in this pocket and with nothing to lose. Without the Luftwaffe, we're going to have a hard time dealing with them. Make sure general Löhr is aware of this !
- Jawohl, Herr Feldmarschall !
- What about 4. and 9. Armeen ?
- They're making progress though the casualties are quite heavy. The last bridgehead across the Moskva river is being reduced and General von Kluge will soon start to disengage some of his elements to send them towards Jaroslav, as planned.
- All right : we still have a tough nut to crack but I'd rather be here than in the shoes of the Soviet Commander..."


Ostheer Hauptquartier, Minsk - Same day - 1800
Feldmarschall von Brauchitsch, CinC OKH, meets General Halder, his Chief of Staff.

- "Herr Feldmarschall... wasn't I right when I told you that Unternehmen 'Taifun' would be successful ?
- Ja, ja, ja... I grant you that : Leningrad and Moscow, both encircled and assaulted. I never thought it could have happened that fast.
Nevertheless, I would strongly advise you to stay calm : those cities are encircled but Ivan isn't beaten yet. Who knows what he's doing at the moment.
Besides, you should have a look on our casualties since June 22nd : nearly 200.000 men KIA. Our main body is reduced to 1.5 million men and most of our divisions, mainly our motorized infantry units, suffered a lot and badly need replacements. Replacements we're still waiting for, btw...

AmBGlyk.jpg

Casualties Ostfront - October 21st, 1941
- I don't think that Ivan is in a position to be dangerous. the Abwehr informed me that Stalin, his Staff and the complete Politburo, left Moscow just the day before our pincers link up. They're going to have a hard time to reorganize.
Until then, though I agree that both battles of Leningrad and Moscow won't be easy ones, I don't think we have anything to be afraid of :
In the North, the 20. Gebirgsarmee keep pushing south between the lake Onega and the White Sea. Its vanguards are approaching the Onega river almost unhampered.
Further south, the 16. Armee is hard-pressing the Soviets and keep pushing towards Vologda. No real decision can be made there without the reinforcement through one of our armies around Leningrad but in the meantime, Ivan can't disengage his units either.
The Soviet defense line in front of Heeresgruppe 'Mitte' has been smashed into pieces and after the Fall of Moscow, we could send our Panzergruppen straight to Gorki without a problem !
- Don't underestimate the Soviet capability to recover, mein lieber Halder. With considerations to casualties, attrition and logistical issues, it would be quite a risky move.
Furthermore, we got lucky with the weather so far but it won't last forever. It already started to freeze and the Ostheer isn't prepared for a winter campaign.
Considering the lack of supply in the area of Heeresgruppe 'Süd', Feldmarschall von Rundstedt isn't sure he'll be able to keep his positions should a Soviet winter counter-offensive ever happen !!!

OJpi5oV.jpg

SitRep - October 21st, 1941
- Once we'll have reduced both Leningrad and Moscow, the Soviet casualties will rise over 3 million men !!!
I hardly see how a country could possibly recover from such losses, Herr Feldmarschall. I grant you that the supply situation of Heeresgruppe 'Süd' is of some concern but our convoys slowly arrive to Rostov and Sevastopol.
General von Stülpnagel and his 17. Armee keep pushing back the Soviets southwards and he asked permission to take Krasnodar and the Taman Peninsula in order to link up with Krim.
- What does Feldmarschall von Rundstedt think of this idea ?
- He told me, and I quote, "17. Armee does not belong to me ; I have enough problems on my side"...
- Thats' the ol' cranky Gerd we all know...!
But he's right on this point : we really need to change the Chain of Command in the far South. Antonescu is not up to the task and we should replace him by one of our men.
- I agree, Herr Feldmarschall, but what should we answer to von Stülpnagel ? He finished to help the Romanians cleaning the Donets elbow and his vanguards are only 80km away from Krasnodar and the Taman Peninsula.
- Tell him "yes, but..." ; if the Soviet resistance is too hard, he'll stop right away ! And no further advance after Krasnodar !!!
To link up with Krim isn't a bad idea after all : If von Rundstedt can't stop a Soviet counter-offensive this winter, our troops in the South will still be able to be supplied. And if nothing happens, we're going to have a good springboard for our offensive into the Caucasus next Spring."



 
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it seems an attack on the West will be inminent once the East has been secured... on the other hand... great job attacking Leningrad!
 
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it seems an attack on the West will be inminent once the East has been secured...
Unfortunatly, we're far from it...
Firstly, because the East isn't secured and it won't be before a long time... at best. The "Bear" has a great capability to recover, despite the massive blows it suffered already.
Though it looks nice on the map, the situation of the Ostheer isn't the best : lack of manpower all over the front, depleted motorized/armored units, logistics issues... and winter at the door. Does it sounds familiar ?

I'm currently both in an historical and ahistorical situation.
Ahistorical because my troops reached more than the Wehrmacht did at that time ; and historical because I'm still confronted to the same dilemmas as 75 years ago : a prolonged war with USSR, one to come with the USA... and England on the top of it.
So, yes... I'll slowly start to think "West" again.

great job attacking Leningrad!
Holy Scheisse, I hope you have all your Fortress Busters divisions at Leningrad or it will be a total bloodbath.
I closed the pocket around Leningrad a month ago already and I had to conduct over there the most bloodiest battles of the whole campaign. That's one of the reasons why I didn't want to take the city by force. However, the strategic situation gives me no choice now.
Then... Frontal assault and after that, I'll send one army, 18. Armee very likely, with the less depleted units to support the 16. Armee in the East.

I really need a winter break !!!
 
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Right now the Russians are out of supply with Moscow surrounded and the national inventory sitting there waiting. Any winter offensive shouldn't be too bad.
 
I agree, but using that to his own offensive is gamey
 
Why is that gamey? I wasn't suggesting that he keep the capitol surrounded while he leisurely destroyed the Russian army. It may take a while to finally capture the city, and, until then, he would not have too bad of time.