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Well, to all of you who think I'm inactive:
I really am, but it is ONLY because I can't contribute anything. I need experience.
I really am, but it is ONLY because I can't contribute anything. I need experience.
That's not a good mentality to have as a goodie, and in fact is something a baddie would say...
And you only gain expenriece by trial and error. Being wrong is what teaches you the most.
DEADLINE
Current Votecount:
aedan777 - 2: EUROO7(277), jeray2000(308)
Jeray - 1: Health(317)
EUROO7 - 5: Black_Griffin(292), aedan777(312), Slinky(313), aramael(278 -> 320), Wagonlitz(321)
Slinky - 1: JCan(309)
Current Votecount:
aedan777 - 2: EUROO7(277), jeray2000(308)
Jeray - 1: Health(317)
EUROO7 - 5: Black_Griffin(292), aedan777(312), Slinky(313), aramael(278 -> 320), Wagonlitz(321)
Slinky - 1: JCan(309)
DAY 4:
Hi there, everyone at home! Ryan Seacrest here, live at 11. It is currently a site of great confusion here as more and more guests seem to be vanishing. On a positive note, James Howlett, after realizing that he was in altogether the wrong place has left. Update at midnight.
EUROO7, who wasn't a werewolf at all, was lynched.
aramael, who was some type of cookie, I guess, was hunted.
Hi there, everyone at home! Ryan Seacrest here, live at 11. It is currently a site of great confusion here as more and more guests seem to be vanishing. On a positive note, James Howlett, after realizing that he was in altogether the wrong place has left. Update at midnight.
EUROO7, who wasn't a werewolf at all, was lynched.
aramael, who was some type of cookie, I guess, was hunted.
I think aedan must be a wolf. In every one of his posts, he either attacks a villager, defends a wolf, or defends himself. If we assume he's a wolf, he only defends wolves or attacks villagers.
First he votes a goodie Day 1, and while there's nothing too suspicious about that since no villagers have any information on who is a wolf, it is still slightly more likely they are a wolf because a wolf is less likely to vote a pack mate and more likely to vote a villager.
Next aedan defends himself against EURO for EURO's case. At this point, I do think EURO's case was just trickery to see who would follow a crappy case and is therefore a wolf and is not very indicative of aedan's wolfishness. It should still be noted however that EURO's case is another straw that may break the camel's back now that we have more information. EURO originally said there must be at least one smart wolf given the hunt of Hax, and with EURO dead, aedan's probably indisputably the smartest player. Again, this is a crappy argument by itself, but it builds on everything else.
Aedan also votes Claude, overlooking Alynkio at this point. Also not very suspicious, I agreed with him at the time that it's better to lynch inactives than actives and Claude did look like a better lynch than Alynkio, but with the benefit of hindsight it is more likely that a wolf would chose to try to shift the vote to a villager than a pack mate.
Here aedan is out and out defending Alynkio. This is quite bad, it's one thing to think Claude it a slightly better lynch, it is another to try to talk people out of voting a wolf and convince them to vote a villager.
Here aedan is supporting a Yakman/Arkasas tie, two players we now know are villagers. He also is defending Health, whose status is unknown and has a 3/7 chance of being a wolf. Not good at all.
EURO had a bad feeling about aedan. EURO has been revealed to be a villager so we know we can trust his judgement, and is generally good enough that his feelings can also be trusted. One player's feeling are not a hard case, but again, it builds with everything else.
Here aedan is advocating the lynch of EURO, known villager. Again, everything builds. He is also advocating the lynch of Slinky, who is unknown to be a villager or wolf, but the case seems to be just "not voting Alynkio" and being quiet. Not a very strong case. He later focuses on EURO anyways.
Aedan is strongly coming out against EURO, known villager. He also doesn't seem to realize the initially EURO's anti-aedan case was a ploy, which is suspicious because one would think aedan would realize it.
aedan continuing to push for EURO's lynch. Again, not good.
In conclusion, there is not hard anti-aedan evidence. There is tons of soft evidence though, and no exonerating evidence. This makes him the best candidate for today's lynch.
Vote aedan777
First he votes a goodie Day 1, and while there's nothing too suspicious about that since no villagers have any information on who is a wolf, it is still slightly more likely they are a wolf because a wolf is less likely to vote a pack mate and more likely to vote a villager.
Next aedan defends himself against EURO for EURO's case. At this point, I do think EURO's case was just trickery to see who would follow a crappy case and is therefore a wolf and is not very indicative of aedan's wolfishness. It should still be noted however that EURO's case is another straw that may break the camel's back now that we have more information. EURO originally said there must be at least one smart wolf given the hunt of Hax, and with EURO dead, aedan's probably indisputably the smartest player. Again, this is a crappy argument by itself, but it builds on everything else.
Aedan also votes Claude, overlooking Alynkio at this point. Also not very suspicious, I agreed with him at the time that it's better to lynch inactives than actives and Claude did look like a better lynch than Alynkio, but with the benefit of hindsight it is more likely that a wolf would chose to try to shift the vote to a villager than a pack mate.
Here aedan is out and out defending Alynkio. This is quite bad, it's one thing to think Claude it a slightly better lynch, it is another to try to talk people out of voting a wolf and convince them to vote a villager.
Here aedan is supporting a Yakman/Arkasas tie, two players we now know are villagers. He also is defending Health, whose status is unknown and has a 3/7 chance of being a wolf. Not good at all.
EURO had a bad feeling about aedan. EURO has been revealed to be a villager so we know we can trust his judgement, and is generally good enough that his feelings can also be trusted. One player's feeling are not a hard case, but again, it builds with everything else.
Here aedan is advocating the lynch of EURO, known villager. Again, everything builds. He is also advocating the lynch of Slinky, who is unknown to be a villager or wolf, but the case seems to be just "not voting Alynkio" and being quiet. Not a very strong case. He later focuses on EURO anyways.
Aedan is strongly coming out against EURO, known villager. He also doesn't seem to realize the initially EURO's anti-aedan case was a ploy, which is suspicious because one would think aedan would realize it.
aedan continuing to push for EURO's lynch. Again, not good.
In conclusion, there is not hard anti-aedan evidence. There is tons of soft evidence though, and no exonerating evidence. This makes him the best candidate for today's lynch.
Vote aedan777
I think Griff warrants some investigation. In fact he seems quite wolfish.
Day 1 he made the below vote, which while on a wolf was very early in the day. It made a threeway though, but it still feels like a hedging bets vote.
Day 2 he was more active, but he was always following the arguments of others. Never really giving his own thoughts. Here he follow's jeray's case on Claude.
And three votes later he switches to EURO. What happened in the two votes in between was that Alynkio voted him for the Claude case. Early in the day and it could well be baddies trying to put some distance between themselves.
And then day 3 he makes what essentially amounts to a throwaway on Aramael. Without really making a case.
And now today he immediately votes aedan.
Vote Black Griffin
Day 1 he made the below vote, which while on a wolf was very early in the day. It made a threeway though, but it still feels like a hedging bets vote.
Day 2 he was more active, but he was always following the arguments of others. Never really giving his own thoughts. Here he follow's jeray's case on Claude.
And three votes later he switches to EURO. What happened in the two votes in between was that Alynkio voted him for the Claude case. Early in the day and it could well be baddies trying to put some distance between themselves.
And then after Euro has made his vote aedan post, Griffin just follows without independent thought.
And late in the day he switches to Aramael as she's starting to get switched to. Seems like somebody wanting to pretend to be active, but actually not really doing anything independently.
And then day 3 he makes what essentially amounts to a throwaway on Aramael. Without really making a case.
And yesterday he just followed the EURO case arguing that EURO was bad for trying to lynch aedan.
And now today he immediately votes aedan.
And this smells like videonfanning.
Vote Black Griffin
Unvote Aedan for no one to think it is a serious vote.
I need to look through the posts
I need to look through the posts
Unfortunately, we'll likely lose this tonight.
I'm far more suspicious of aedan now.
My concerns about Griffin, Slinky and jeray remain - although jeray was not amongst the Euro voters.
Health I'm not sure about. His voting has been relatively under-the-radar, which gives me cause for suspicion.
The only person I feel even vaguely confident about writing-off as a baddie is 'litz.
I'm willing to consider the Euro voters today. I voted Slinky last time, so and votes so far appear to be between aedan and Griffin.
aedan wasn't amongst the alynkio voters when he was tied with Claude.
Vote aedan
- Wagonlitz
- jeray
- Health
- aedan
- Griffin
- Slinky
- JCan
I'm far more suspicious of aedan now.
My concerns about Griffin, Slinky and jeray remain - although jeray was not amongst the Euro voters.
Health I'm not sure about. His voting has been relatively under-the-radar, which gives me cause for suspicion.
The only person I feel even vaguely confident about writing-off as a baddie is 'litz.
I'm willing to consider the Euro voters today. I voted Slinky last time, so and votes so far appear to be between aedan and Griffin.
aedan wasn't amongst the alynkio voters when he was tied with Claude.
Vote aedan
No. Alynkio was a baddie.
Helping to kill off goodie Euro, and their ongoing tiff. That said, Euro wasn't exactly helping the village with his standard chaotic play.
I've just been reading aedan's early posts, and trying to figure out this one (yes it's a bit meta, but we need to lynch a baddie today):
I think the bit mentioning RP roles checks out.
Unvote aedan
Vote Griffin
I'll admit I look rather bad for repeatedly voting for villagers in significant ways, and having done a bit to direct votes away from the only wolf we know of on day 2. However, why would I go to such trouble as wolf to direct the village against villagers? If I were a wolf and the village was aimless or focused on villager candidates, I wouldn't then insert myself to take a leading role in the lynches of villagers to draw attention to myself. On day 3 we had four major candidates, Arkasas, Yakman, Aramael, and Health. We now know the first three were villagers. Of those Health had the least votes, so the three candidates in danger, all were villagers. In such circumstances, what do I have to gain by stepping up to push for and support a tie between two villagers? It didn't bring parity any closer, it didn't remove major voices of the village, and it was far from a move to save a potential packmate. All it did was damage my credibility and put more of a spotlight on myself, wholly unnecessarily if I was a wolf.
To further extend this point, as Wagonlitz seems to be implying, I'm well known to sellout packmates rather than defend them. Indeed, more than a few times I've been considered a likely wolf for being involved in the lynching of multiple wolves.
Needless to say, I'm not a wolf, simply a villager who has been following/making cases that happen to be against villagers. This leaves me much less confident about potential wolves among the remaining players, though by pure probability I have a fifty percent chance of being right accusing one of you of being a wolf.
That said, I'm not sold in Griffin as the alternative candidate for today. He put a second vote on Alynkio pretty early in the day day 1, and kept it there, even when Alynkio got later votes. Very risky for a newb wolf to do to a packmate, and I don't think his actions so far indicate the level of ruthlessness or team apathy that would go with such an action. Health and Wagonlitz put important votes on Alynkio day 2, so they've avoided suspicion, since it would have been very easy to avoid voting Alynkio while Claude was in the lead. That would indicate the wolfpack is Slinky, JCan, and Jeray. This fits with the voting record so far and is quite possible.
But JCan isn't a wolf. I don't like bringing in a semi-meta point like this, but it can't be ignored. On day 2, shortly after the issue of the RP for villagers being wolves, he sent me this PM-
I told him it was, and I stand by that. However, by asking me this, JCan all but cleared himself in my eyes, and I tried to keep this limited to myself to limit meta arguments. But with my credibility in the drain after prior lynches, and with the group of players lacking votes on wolves (myself, JCan, jeray, and Slinky) containing two confirmed villagers in my book (myself and JCan), I can't keep this information secret anymore. So I think wolf pack is most likely being jeray, Slinky, and one of Health and Wagonlitz. The latter two did vote a wolf, but based on what I know, at least one wolf did vote Alynkio, and I believe two factors make them more likely wolves than Griffin. Griffin is a new player, while Health and Wagon are more familiar, particularly Wagon. Also, on day 2 Alynkio getting more votes again indicates that he might be a constant vote magnet, whereas an early second vote on day 1 is much more detrimental to the wolves. Because of this, I think Griffin is a less likely wolf than Health or Wagon.
So in summary, we should lynch Jeray or Slinky today. And since we lose if a villager is lynched, we need to have all players agree on a candidate.
Vote Slinky
To further extend this point, as Wagonlitz seems to be implying, I'm well known to sellout packmates rather than defend them. Indeed, more than a few times I've been considered a likely wolf for being involved in the lynching of multiple wolves.
Needless to say, I'm not a wolf, simply a villager who has been following/making cases that happen to be against villagers. This leaves me much less confident about potential wolves among the remaining players, though by pure probability I have a fifty percent chance of being right accusing one of you of being a wolf.
That said, I'm not sold in Griffin as the alternative candidate for today. He put a second vote on Alynkio pretty early in the day day 1, and kept it there, even when Alynkio got later votes. Very risky for a newb wolf to do to a packmate, and I don't think his actions so far indicate the level of ruthlessness or team apathy that would go with such an action. Health and Wagonlitz put important votes on Alynkio day 2, so they've avoided suspicion, since it would have been very easy to avoid voting Alynkio while Claude was in the lead. That would indicate the wolfpack is Slinky, JCan, and Jeray. This fits with the voting record so far and is quite possible.
But JCan isn't a wolf. I don't like bringing in a semi-meta point like this, but it can't be ignored. On day 2, shortly after the issue of the RP for villagers being wolves, he sent me this PM-
I told him it was, and I stand by that. However, by asking me this, JCan all but cleared himself in my eyes, and I tried to keep this limited to myself to limit meta arguments. But with my credibility in the drain after prior lynches, and with the group of players lacking votes on wolves (myself, JCan, jeray, and Slinky) containing two confirmed villagers in my book (myself and JCan), I can't keep this information secret anymore. So I think wolf pack is most likely being jeray, Slinky, and one of Health and Wagonlitz. The latter two did vote a wolf, but based on what I know, at least one wolf did vote Alynkio, and I believe two factors make them more likely wolves than Griffin. Griffin is a new player, while Health and Wagon are more familiar, particularly Wagon. Also, on day 2 Alynkio getting more votes again indicates that he might be a constant vote magnet, whereas an early second vote on day 1 is much more detrimental to the wolves. Because of this, I think Griffin is a less likely wolf than Health or Wagon.
So in summary, we should lynch Jeray or Slinky today. And since we lose if a villager is lynched, we need to have all players agree on a candidate.
Vote Slinky
Combination of the following:
- Overall voting record,
- Not being amongst those that killed-off baddie alynkio,
- Being amongst those that killed-off goodie Euro,
- A lot of your reasoning behind your votes has been merely latching onto cases already presented.
Yep. Hence why aedan is less likely a wolf.
EURO was being really strange.
It was really early though as you said and new wolves have been known to vote mates. He could then easily have been trapped on that vote. Also Alynkio wasn't in the front when he voted, so it was a rather safe vote. Plus Alynkio could save himself.
I'm confused.
I said it made aedan look more like a baddie because he wasn't amongst the Alynkio (baddie) voters.
Oh, you mean 'less like a wolf' - as in a goodie? So aedan looks less like a goodie - yes? No?
@F72Voyager - this is the confusion you wanted, isn't it!?!?
It was early, but it was the second vote on him, and it didn't put him singularly in the lead, but it put him in tie for the lead. The issue also isn't so much that his vote ended up being dangerous, but that it was dangerous when he first made it, and a new player is unlikely to vote a packmate right off the bat.