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Also, since I'm gonna get hunted most likely both due to the outing, but also due to how I ended up being quite obvious in gunning for Alynkio (still gained some info, though, so better than just outing), so I want to say that I do think randy is quite suspicious and would make a good suspect for tomorrow, same with Yvanoff for contacting me asking if I knew Alynkio was a wolf and then joining aedan's saving attempt almost immediately afterwards.
 
With regard to aedan then he posted today that he thought it very uncharacteristic of me to push Alynkio on a case like that. And he's right. Which also is why I'm expecting to be hunted.
And yet, aedan made a counter case despite stating he found it very uncharacteristic of me. And he knows I don't push somebody that obviously as a wolf. Hence he might very well be worth looking into. I'll see if I can find the post in question, but first this in case the update hits before I find it.
 
Couldn't find that post, so perhaps it was somebody else making it. Anyway, I just noticed that prior to today aedan only had 2! game posts! One day 1 and one day 2. That's extremely few and very low flying of him. Now, day 1 he often only votes once, so I can see that, but day two he really ought to have had more posts. It smells wafflish.
 
Now weak though the case is, it's not bad per se and with no dead wolves yet, it could be on to something. The part that I really don't get is Wagonlitz asking every single person what they think about Alynkio. I don't think I've ever seen Wagonlitz have such a single minded obsession with a single candidate before, not with a case as weak as this. I don't know what to make of that.

This is what Wagonlitz is probably referring to. And while it looks bad now in hindsight, I think it's silly to assume that because Wagonlitz was acting uncharacteristically (by his own admission) I should've assumed he was JL trying to force a lynch on a scanned wolf. That isn't the first thing that comes to mind when a player is ramming through a weak case, the first thing I think is a wolf trying to get someone who isn't a packmate lynched.

Couldn't find that post, so perhaps it was somebody else making it. Anyway, I just noticed that prior to today aedan only had 2! game posts! One day 1 and one day 2. That's extremely few and very low flying of him. Now, day 1 he often only votes once, so I can see that, but day two he really ought to have had more posts. It smells wafflish.
My day 2 post had a fiar amount of content to it, and this attempt to say people who make few votes are suspicious is baseless. I made an active contribution to get a candidate lynched, and while it was only one post, it still counts. Making more posts and spamming the thread is not a mark of goodieness.
 
Day 3
Day 3 Final Votecount:

Alynkio: 7
Wagonlitz[232]
Yakman[226 Yakman -> 248]
Hax[252 Yakman -> 267]
beartjah[241 Alxeu -> 277]
Yvanoff[260 Wagonlitz -> 285 Randakar -> 293]
Aedan[252 Randakar -> 294]
Alxeu[273 Alynkio -> 288 Randakar -> 296]

Randakar: 2
Dedonus[259 Aedan -> 286]
Alynkio[255 Esemesas -> 289]

Esemesas: 1
Randakar[227 Wagonlitz -> 235]

Yakman: 1
esemesas[238]

Not Voted: 0
:)
 
Well... WOLFSIGN WORKED
 
Finally something to work with.

The runup on Randakar was joined by Aedan, Yvanoff, Dedonus, Alxeu(and Alynkio, but he's a little bit on the dead side :p).
We need to bear in mind that the case on Alynkio wasn't exactly the strongest of cases yesterday, so some opposition to the Alynkio lynch from villagers isn't entirely weird. That said I'm kinda suspicious because of the target chosen.
What I'm seeing in Randakar is just someone that's inactive. Which would also kinda make sense with Caillean asking for a sub. From what I've seen in the past baddie Randakar is just as active as goodie Randakar, and we've already mislynched him in the past when he went inactive and didn't really pay attention to the game for whatever reason. Sure, it doesn't clear him, but it isn't damning either.
In other words: not in any way a good case against him(and certainly not better than what little we had on Alynkio), but a perfect scapegoat that nobody really opposes lynching either. Almost as if a wolf brought up the easiest scapegoat that could be found to try and save his packmate.

Aedan was the one that originally brought up Randy as someone that could be lynched instead of Alynkio near the end, and he was also by far the most vocal in opposing the Alynkio lynch. That he was mostly lying low before this and suddenly became active when a wolf was targetted doesn't exactly help him either.

Yvanoff's PM stuff also seems a bit suspect. From what Wagon is saying he seems to have PMed Wagon asking if he had a scan on Alynkio, and then promtly went and opposed lynching Alynkio. I'm not sure on one thing about him though: if he was a wolf, then why would he even send the first PM to begin with? Potentially trying to phish, but would he really get anything of note out of it? What would a wolf expect to get from something like that?
That said, I don't see what a villager would gain from it either. @Yvanoff Can you explain what happened in those PMs?

Alxeu initially voted Alynkio in a post that seemed to suggest he had no real choice anymore, then flipped to Randy, and then flipped back after the outting. Could be a wolf that thought Alynkio was done for until the Randy runup and then switched thinking he could be saved after all. But he subbed in fairly late and may not have have time to figure out what exaclty was going on. Still, deserves some attention.
(We should also note that Alynkio redirected/opposed an attempted runup on day 2 against him, for what it's worth)

Dedonus seems to have intially mistrusted Wagon enough to vote for Wagon, then switched to Randy when that runup started. Consistent, but could be a wolf opposing the lynching of his packmate. I don't see nything beyond joining this runup on him I think, and I'm not sure if he's the msot suspiciosu of the bunch right now.




Of course we should also be a bit careful about wolves seeign Wagon going this diehard on Alynkio, suspecting there's a scan at play and just going in alibi voting thinking Alynkio's doomed already. But I'm not sure where we should start for exploring that hypothesis, and there's probably better cases to go after for today than assuming someone alibi voted.


I feel like Aedan is the most suspicious out of the bunch for now. He is the one that picked the seemingly all to easy target for the runup, and was also by far the most vocal about wanting someone else/not Alynkio killed.

This is what Wagonlitz is probably referring to. And while it looks bad now in hindsight, I think it's silly to assume that because Wagonlitz was acting uncharacteristically (by his own admission) I should've assumed he was JL trying to force a lynch on a scanned wolf. That isn't the first thing that comes to mind when a player is ramming through a weak case, the first thing I think is a wolf trying to get someone who isn't a packmate lynched.
A wolf would just be suicidal if he's pushing a weak case with this level of fervour, and from what I've seen from baddie Wagon he'd be far more subtle about it. I agree it would be silly to just assume he was JL, but it's equally silly to just assume he's wolf.

My day 2 post had a fiar amount of content to it, and this attempt to say people who make few votes are suspicious is baseless. I made an active contribution to get a candidate lynched, and while it was only one post, it still counts. Making more posts and spamming the thread is not a mark of goodieness.
Ehm, so you think THIS post is "a fair amount of content":
Hmm, discussion of parity rules aside, I'm most suspicious of Xarkan from day 1. He was the main beneficiary of the heavy push on Jeray late in the day, making a wolf save quite possible. Determining if he's a wolf could lead us to many other suspects, so I think he's the best lynch for today.

Vote Xarkan
?
All you're really did there was target Xarkan for the crime of not dying on day 1. The only person Xarkan's death even really gave info on was Yvanoff I think? Or is there some other post you're referring to that I've missed?

VOTE AEDAN
 
What I'm seeing in Randakar is just someone that's inactive. Which would also kinda make sense with Caillean asking for a sub. From what I've seen in the past baddie Randakar is just as active as goodie Randakar, and we've already mislynched him in the past when he went inactive and didn't really pay attention to the game for whatever reason. Sure, it doesn't clear him, but it isn't damning either.
In other words: not in any way a good case against him(and certainly not better than what little we had on Alynkio), but a perfect scapegoat that nobody really opposes lynching either. Almost as if a wolf brought up the easiest scapegoat that could be found to try and save his packmate.
This is ridiculous and completely out of touch with reality. Randy was not run up because he was inactive, he was run up because his behavior was suspicious for those he attempted to run up and the cases he made. This isn't even just my personal speculation, of which I'd have motive to make such a claim regardless of its veracity. Wagonlitz himself repeatedly noted that Randy was a good lynch despite everything.
I'm suspicious of randy too. Today we hang Alynkio, though. Randy can hang tomorrow.

Part of why I'm suspicious of randy is how his case on me was super flawed in that I didn't allow fall gelb, though that might just be down to him being busy. He had super flawed logic on why the set of ese and Hax had to contain one and just one wolf, though. Wolves don't distribute their votes like that and randy knows it, so he really comes off as a likeli wolf.

You have a point that in case Alynkio is a waffle a TIE wouldn't end things. I had completely missed that point.
Also, since I'm gonna get hunted most likely both due to the outing, but also due to how I ended up being quite obvious in gunning for Alynkio (still gained some info, though, so better than just outing), so I want to say that I do think randy is quite suspicious and would make a good suspect for tomorrow, same with Yvanoff for contacting me asking if I knew Alynkio was a wolf and then joining aedan's saving attempt almost immediately afterwards.
Twice Wagonlitz notes Randy is a good candidate, one of them as I raised objections to the solidification of Alynkio as the main candidate, and the second after the outing and after I had managed to get Randy above Alynkio in votes. So anyone who at this point tries to claim Randy was solely the target of a nefarious scheme to save Alynkio is either lying through their teeth or living in a delusional facsimile of reality.

A wolf would just be suicidal if he's pushing a weak case with this level of fervour, and from what I've seen from baddie Wagon he'd be far more subtle about it. I agree it would be silly to just assume he was JL, but it's equally silly to just assume he's wolf.
You're not wrong that assuming he's a wolf would've been a poor way to respond to Wagonlitz's move, but unless you instead assume he's JL, there's no reason to trust in his spurious case against Alynkio. I remind you that even as much as I doubted Wagonlitz's case and push on Alynkio, I never voted him for it. Yvanoff did though. Wagonlitz's case on Alynkio was, by his own admission, on its face poor and he pursued it more than he normally would've. So for it to have become the leading choice as deadline closed in, purely as a result of wagonlitz campaigning for it, there were ample reasons to be suspicious.

Beartjah's attempt to go after me is poor, though hardly unexpected after my suspicion of the Alynkio run up led me to inadvertently almost save a wolf. His (willful?) misrepresentation of the case on Randy is particularly remarkable, and suggests he's a wolf trying to go after the most obvious scapegoat for "Trying to save Alynkio."

Still, the one I'm most suspicious of is Yvanoff. Randy's still on my radar too, but Yvanoff apparently telling Wagonlitz he thought that Alynkio was scanned, then jumping on to Randy is too alarming to ignore. Even more so with Yvanoff having previously voiced opposition to Wagonlitz and voted him in thread. That doesn't add up, and suggests nefarious motives for the whole thing.

Vote Yvanoff
 
May not be active tomorrow.

vote aedan
 
Actually, that is pretty much on target.

un vote a eda n

Vote yvanoff


Refreshing when people start believing you...
 
A good night both here and in real life. Analyze, perhaps even Book of Hax, incoming later today.

I could say the same, although it's coming back to haunt me this morning :confused:

Actual substance coming once I'm less hungover...
 
OK, so the PM stuff is going to pursue me for a while. I better explain it now.

Very simply, at first seeing Wagon tunneling without a case on alynkio made me think of only one possibility: Wagon was a waffle trying to get a villager lynched.

After a while, my brain saw the light and realized there could be another explanation: Wagon could be JL and alynkio a scanned wolf !

But, here's a slight dilemma: as a villager, how do you know it is one case and not the other ? In insight I was really dumb - it's unlikely a wolf would make so much noise and draw so many attention to himself - but at this time I was still leaning towards Wagon being a baddie.

Still, because I thought Wagon being JL was a decent possibility, I sent him a PM asking him whether or not alynkio was a scanned wolf.

Wagon didn't reply; he later told me it was obviously because he wouldn't reply "yes I'm JL" to someone who might be a wolf. Which is really stupid IMHO. No doubt the wolves had seen Wagon tunneling on one of them without a case the whole day, it's likely even though I sent the PM pre outing that he was at least very suspicious in their eyes and had a fair probability of being hunted. Why not take the risk of PMing me back ?

At any rate, I interpreted this lack of answer badly and thought it validated the first option, fool that I am.

Now I know that one of the worst thing that can happen at WW is being on the defensive like I am here (followed by revenge voting, which I might do since aedan is pretty suspicious if you ask me). So I'm pretty sure that I'm dead (unless there's another outing), and I have no problem with that, but once it turns out I'm a villager please take a good look at aedan and don't be fooled by the lies he'll probably throw away as a defense (there will be regular reminders for you to do that until deadline)
 
Okay so, caught up on the thread now. Have to say I'm not too happy with the way Wagonlitz handled the situation, though I guess it gave us more info than the usual outing. Of the two suggested candidates today I would lean more towards aedan, I'd be willing to believe Yvanoff's explanation as the thought of PMing Wagon asking if this was a soft outing did cross my mind, but unlike Yvanoff I wasn't naive enough to think he would just open up like that

Vote aedan
 
Also, let's not forget Dedonus and alxeu also happily jumped on the randy wagon. I'd say put them down as slightly less suspect than aedan and Yvanoff, but still worth remembering their complicity, especially if randy turns out to be good
 
Also, let's not forget Dedonus and alxeu also happily jumped on the randy wagon. I'd say put them down as slightly less suspect than aedan and Yvanoff, but still worth remembering their complicity, especially if randy turns out to be good
but the randy wagon is a fine wagon. dude ain't posting.

now, zombies happen for unintentional reasons. they happen, cuz of lazy wolves. they happen because of lazy villagers.

in randy's case, maybe they are hiding wolf?
 
Day 1
Jeray: 6
Beartjah[42]
Esemesas[55 Yakman -> 79 Arkasas -> 86]
Arkasas[46 Yakman -> 68 Jeray -> 89]
Xarkan[93 Arkasas -> 105]
Yvanoff[38 Alynkio -> 74 Brovahkiin -> 95 Xarkan -> 125]
Hax[41 Yvanoff -> 61 Brovah -> 78 Hax -> 83 Ramius -> 87 Esemesas -> 98 Arkasas -> 117 Jeray -> 122 aedan -> 124 randakar -> 126 Caillean -> 127 Xarkan -> 128 Yakman -> 129]

Xarkan: 3
Dedonus[43]
Yakman[44 Beartjah -> 69 jeray -> 76 Brovahkiin -> 94]
Wagonlitz[60 Arkasas -> 96]

Brovahkiin: 1
Alynkio[66 Jeray -> 72]

Arkasas: 1
aedan[49]

Yakman: 1
Ramius[81 Esemesas -> 82]

Esemesas: 1
Brovahkiin[39 Hax -> 85 Arkasas -> 90]

Randakar: 1
Caillean[106]

Caillean: 1
Randakar[109]

Not Voted: 1
jeray2000

Day 2
Arkasas: 4
Xarkan[140]
Esemesas[153 Alynkio -> 162]
Caillean[184]
Hax[159 Beartjah -> 188 Wagonlitz -> 203]

Xarkan: 4
aedan[176]
ramius[177]
Wagonlitz[147 Hax -> 182]
Alynkio[186 Wagonlitz -> 202]

Hax: 1
Randakar[144]

Yvanoff: 1
Yakman[141]

Dedonus: 1
Yvanoff[150]

Randakar: 1
Dedonus[160]

Ramius: 1
Arkasas[173 Xarkan -> 180]

Wagonlitz: 1
Beartjah[179 Ramius -> 190]

Day 3 Pre-Outing
Randakar: 5
Aedan[252 Randakar]
Yvanoff[260 Wagonlitz -> 285 Randakar]
Dedonus[259 Aedan -> 286]
Alxeu[273 Alynkio -> 288 Randakar]
Alynkio[255 Esemesas -> 289]

Alynkio: 4
Wagonlitz[232]
Yakman[226 Yvanoff -> 248]
Hax[252 Yakman -> 267]
beartjah[241 Alxeu -> 277]

Esemesas: 1
Randakar[227 Wagonlitz -> 235]

Yakman: 1
esemesas[238]

Day 3 Post-Outing
Alynkio: 7
Wagonlitz[232]
Yakman[226 Yvanoff -> 248]
Hax[252 Yakman -> 267]
beartjah[241 Alxeu -> 277]
Yvanoff[260 Wagonlitz -> 285 Randakar -> 293]
Aedan[252 Randakar -> 294]
Alxeu[273 Alynkio -> 288 Randakar -> 296]

Randakar: 2
Dedonus[259 Aedan -> 286]
Alynkio[255 Esemesas -> 289]

Esemesas: 1
Randakar[227 Wagonlitz -> 235]

Yakman: 1
esemesas[238]
 
Last edited:
So, who are the main suspects for the day ?

First: me

I'm not going to bother replying to the accusations against me, because the facts are overwhelmingly against me. It's a matter of belief: you either believe me, or you don't. I understand if you don't believe me, but once my death clears my name I urge you to go back to this post and reread my post while knowing for sure I posted this as a villager. And if you somehow believe me... Thanks ? I guess

Second: aedan

Immediately tried to run up randakar against alynkio.

An excuse I dare invoke for my behavior yesterday is that as a still relatively new player I didn't immediately realize what Wagon was doing and even once I did I still wasn't sure it was actually it. This excuse certainly does not work for a player such as aedan, who certainly understood what was happening at once given his vast experience of the game. He tried to get the lynch off alynkio, and actively asked player to switch to randy based on a weak case. Looks a lot like a wolf trying to get a packmate off the lynch by using naive villagers passing by (me, pssibly Dedonus) and/or packmates willing to help (possibly Dedonus or alxeu). Also, proposed to tie alynkio with another player saying that if alynkio was a baddie the village had nothing to fear from a tie, forgetting about the obvious threat of snipers. Now trying to scapegoat me for yesterday's failure when he was just as happy with redirecting the lynch on randy and actually actively proposed a switch to him.

A case very similar to mine. If you decide to lynch me first, then lynch him in second. No doubt if you lynch me first he'll try to weasel out of the pressure by claiming that I was a naive villager distrustful of Wagon and so was he, before trying to redirect the lynch to someone else. Don't listen to his lies.

For me it is rather obvious that there has to be a wolf between aedan and myself. I know it's not me, so it must be aedan. Remember that if you lynch me today.


Third: Dedonus

Aside from his vote on randakar yesterday, not much. A vote on randakar (like aedan), was voting aedan before the end of the day voteswitch yesterday. No baddie points, no goodie points IMHO, could be anything but avoided pressure rather well so far.


Fourth: ramius/alxeu

Lazy bandwagoning by ramius. Alxeu's behavior yesterday could be from a wolf deeming a packmate (alynkio) to be beyound salvation, only to swoop in and try to save him when it appears aedan might just be able to save alynkio from the lynch. Or could be a naive villager.


Vote aedan

because he's still the most suspicious in my books. Lynching me is fine though, as long as you don't forget to lynch aedan next
 
Although this being the 3rd day that Yakman has focused on Yvanoff is a bit peculiar, Yvanoff's vote record isn't stellar.

Day 1: voted Alynkio, but switched off to three other villagers. Could be an alibi vote or could be random good luck.

Day 2: voted Dedonus

Day 3: voted Wagon, then Randy, and then Alynkio after he was outed.

However, who (or rather who hasn't) voted for Yvanoff is, as I believe, more insightful. For the past three days, Yvanoff has only been voted by Hax and Yakman. Assuming the voting record is correct (I did find on Day 3 that Panzer record that Yakman voted for Yakman on vote 226, which obviously wasn't the case), this shows that people have been avoiding him. Maybe packmates not wanting to vote him?

Randy's voting record is event worse.

Day 1: voted Caillean (who had voted him first)

Day 2: voted Hax because Hax voted for everyone and his brother on Day 1.

Day 3: voted Wagonlitz for Wagonlitz's lazy/insistence on Alynkio, then switched to esemesas.

3 of these votes were lazy, while the fourth is still to be seen (as esemesas is still alive). However, he has one thing going for him. Assuming he was run up by wolves yesterday, I would find it unlikely that Randy is also a wolf. Assuming the wolves were trying to save Alynkio, why would they sacrifice another one of their own for that purpose, especially since there is still a seer running around?

While Randy has the worse voting record, the circumstances on Day 3 suggestions that he probably isn't a wolf.

VOTE Yvanoff