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Fair. May the Great Bird of the Galaxy bless your sister's planet, and afflicted organs.
Why wolves, why?
Friend Hax, I will avenge you! There's only one man who would be so dastardly!
vote Sleepyhead
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Fair. May the Great Bird of the Galaxy bless your sister's planet, and afflicted organs.
Friend Hax, I will avenge you! There's only one man who would be so dastardly!
vote Sleepyhead
I'm a bit suspicious of the sudden Randy wagon yesterday. There were a bunch of candidates, none over three votes, and suddenly Randy gets a push up to eight? Doesn't smell right. Sure, Wagon and Claude were trying to squirm their way out of the lynch, but why did capibara and Sleepyhead, and then everyone else, follow them? Why such an avalanche against Randy for no particular reason? I don't think there was any particular conspiracy against Randy, but I think there might have been a wolf in the running yesterday, and the pack were eager to use the Randy switch to save their mate with as little suspicion as possible. Now, I'm not necessarily sure who involved was wolfish and who was just a villager, since too many were involved for the wolves to be the only ones, but I'm thinking the one who was protected might have been wagonlitz, since he was the candidate with votes on him from people who weren't active at deadline (Rovsea and I) who would thus be unlikely to switch off. No other candidate had two voters who weren't on at deadline, meaning they had greater chance of shifting, and thus less need for a pile on against Randy to save them if they were a wolf. Alternatively two of those in the running were wolves. But since Wagon was both the prime beneficiary and instigator of a suspicious move, I think he's the one most deserving of further attention.
Vote Wagonlitz
Vote Wagonlitz
So we got:
Cat-phrase stealers: alxeu and Capibara
Votes which turned out to be throwaways before the vote switching closer to deadline: beartjah and caillean
Last to make the fourway tie: alynkio
Vote switch instigator: Wagonlitz
Eager to move the vote: Arkasas
Vote switch final target picker (and first choice): Claude
Voting without motivation today: Yakman
Voting with stupid motivation today: Arkasas
Voting vote switch instigator: aedan
Wagon probably acted out of self-preservation yesterday and Arkasas was for some reason eager to follow (and overall jumpy). I joined in together with others, personally as information had been gathered and a no-voter does us no good. The cat-phrase stealers probably had similar motivations.
Hmm.. If there was someone evil in the running then remaking the tie by voting the now known villager Hax would have been the logical choice. Let's look into that.
Vote alynkio
Cat-phrase stealers: alxeu and Capibara
Votes which turned out to be throwaways before the vote switching closer to deadline: beartjah and caillean
Last to make the fourway tie: alynkio
Vote switch instigator: Wagonlitz
Eager to move the vote: Arkasas
Vote switch final target picker (and first choice): Claude
Voting without motivation today: Yakman
Voting with stupid motivation today: Arkasas
Voting vote switch instigator: aedan
Wagon probably acted out of self-preservation yesterday and Arkasas was for some reason eager to follow (and overall jumpy). I joined in together with others, personally as information had been gathered and a no-voter does us no good. The cat-phrase stealers probably had similar motivations.
Hmm.. If there was someone evil in the running then remaking the tie by voting the now known villager Hax would have been the logical choice. Let's look into that.
Vote alynkio
I agree the voteswitch looks bad, though we should remember that with that many people on the train at least half of it consisted of villagers.
I don't quite get why we wanted to have that kind of voteswitch? Everyone that was under pressure before got off scot free in return for just killing someone at random
I'm not so sure on wagon though. He was heavily pushing to get any voteswitch unto a new candidate yes, but he was saving his own skin. I'm not sure if him doing everything he can to not die is really all that indicative of being a wolf.
I think Claude, capibar, sleepy and dedonus(and later voters, though those people didn't really change the lynchee anymore) don't have this self preservation to excuse their "anyone but the existing candidares" voting at the end. 3rd vote is capibara, it feels like that was where the bandwagon become irreversible, though thas just my gut feeling. I'd be up for the other three as well but I'm not entirely sure whether I'll be around later today so I want to get a vote down just in case
VOTE CAPIBARA
I don't quite get why we wanted to have that kind of voteswitch? Everyone that was under pressure before got off scot free in return for just killing someone at random
I'm not so sure on wagon though. He was heavily pushing to get any voteswitch unto a new candidate yes, but he was saving his own skin. I'm not sure if him doing everything he can to not die is really all that indicative of being a wolf.
I think Claude, capibar, sleepy and dedonus(and later voters, though those people didn't really change the lynchee anymore) don't have this self preservation to excuse their "anyone but the existing candidares" voting at the end. 3rd vote is capibara, it feels like that was where the bandwagon become irreversible, though thas just my gut feeling. I'd be up for the other three as well but I'm not entirely sure whether I'll be around later today so I want to get a vote down just in case
VOTE CAPIBARA
Why is Arkasas not featured in your analysis?
The four-way tie was quite cemented and two people were acting out of self-interest and Arky had signalled an intention to switch. Going for the non-voter was motivated IMO, which is why I followed and for that reason.
Looking at the final vote count from yesterday then we have four people doing throwaways.
Tonka, Bearth, and Caillean. Wolves often like to not really commit and instead just make a throwaway, so it might be worth looking at some of these.
Vote Caillean
I don't know if running up the same people from yesterday is the most beneficial thing for the village at this point of the game. I'm not saying we should never return to what had happened. However, there is also a good chance that we would be only running up villagers.
A lot of people got voted yesterday. From my count, there are 5 people who avoided being voted: Aedan, Alynkio, Arkasas (what's with all these "A" names?), tonkatoy5, and capibara. Since as of writing this post, three of these players have voted today (Alynkio, tonkatoy5, and capibara), I'll pick from the remaining two.
VOTE Arkasas
A lot of people got voted yesterday. From my count, there are 5 people who avoided being voted: Aedan, Alynkio, Arkasas (what's with all these "A" names?), tonkatoy5, and capibara. Since as of writing this post, three of these players have voted today (Alynkio, tonkatoy5, and capibara), I'll pick from the remaining two.
VOTE Arkasas
8 people are voting Randy, but you're looking at the throw-away voters? Why?
Vote Wagonlitz
Today has been a little quiet.
Yesterday I was just trying to save myself. I have been in the let's do a massive switch to end to many times.
But I'm amazed to see the massive wagon into randy
There we could find wolves, especially in the later ones. I mean when the wagon got so massive could be easy to just jump into it with no consequences at all. Just be one more of the voters.
I think I will go for arkasas.
Really eager into making the switch, voted the switch capibara proposed and then randy.
Vote arkasas
Yesterday I was just trying to save myself. I have been in the let's do a massive switch to end to many times.
But I'm amazed to see the massive wagon into randy
There we could find wolves, especially in the later ones. I mean when the wagon got so massive could be easy to just jump into it with no consequences at all. Just be one more of the voters.
I think I will go for arkasas.
Really eager into making the switch, voted the switch capibara proposed and then randy.
Vote arkasas
Not really sure the randy switch would yield too much. There was a mood for a switch and then, when it started, it just rolled. Partially also for anti TIE purposes given how huge the TIE had been shortly before.
I dunno, Caillean fits with aedan's theory of there being a wolf saved by the vote swap. Caillean also ended the day with two votes, and Hax and Yakman didn't post anytime leading up to deadline, so if Wagon is a valid candidate by aedan's logic, then so is Caillean.
Vote Caillean
This place is far too silent.
Very quick unofficial votecount
2 - Wagon, Arky, Caillean
1 - Tonkatoy, Sleepy, Capibara, Alynkio
not voted: 4?
UNVOTE CAPIBARA
VOTE SLEEPY
Basically the same case as what I had for voting Capi: joined/helped start the randy switch without needing to so out of self preservation.
Very quick unofficial votecount
2 - Wagon, Arky, Caillean
1 - Tonkatoy, Sleepy, Capibara, Alynkio
not voted: 4?
UNVOTE CAPIBARA
VOTE SLEEPY
Basically the same case as what I had for voting Capi: joined/helped start the randy switch without needing to so out of self preservation.
In retrospect, I'm a little embarrassed that I went along with the Randy switch. My thought at the time was "Wagon asked me to, I don't have a strong reason to be on Hax, and fuck it, Randy's dead anyway" If there's one thing to be learned from Werewolf, it's that people are suggestible and I'm no exception.
It's hard to definitively rule on Wagon's guilt or innocence at this point. He was under lynch pressure, and 'the guy who hasn't voted yet and who hasn't received any votes' is a reasonable compromise candidate (that being said, it is nice to have Randy around, I hope he continues to play regularly, and that his sister's cancer goes into remission with celerity). Of course, wolves can come up with reasonable compromise candidates and face lynch pressure as easily as villagers, but I don't see anything fundamentally wolfish about Wagon's behavior.
With as many candidates having received significant votes as we saw yesterday, it is highly likely that there was a wolf or two among our initial '7 way' and still more likely than not in our '4 way' as well.
For the lazy, the 7 way included Rovsea, Dedonus, Wagon, Yakman, Alxeu, and Cailean.
Wagon called for consolidation, and Arky, Claude, and Alxeu (and me and sleepy) subsequently switched our votes. The end result of this was to remove Rovsea, Yakman, and Dedonus from consideration.
Caillean voted Yak, one of the original 7. I don't think this really makes her a throwaway. The true throw-away voter was Beartjah.
I'm most interested in Capibara and Rovsea. Rovs has been a little quiet, and he was one of the 3 people removed from consideration during consolidation. Capibara was a Hax voter, and initially suggested we kill Yak (who's a great village scapegoat) during the vote switch phase, before enthusiastically switching to Randy. He had a bit of a 'whatever' attitude about the switch too.
And so are you
I think I'm most interested in the initial consolidation phase. There were a lot of votes that seemed to benefit Rovsea.
VOTE ROVSEA
It's hard to definitively rule on Wagon's guilt or innocence at this point. He was under lynch pressure, and 'the guy who hasn't voted yet and who hasn't received any votes' is a reasonable compromise candidate (that being said, it is nice to have Randy around, I hope he continues to play regularly, and that his sister's cancer goes into remission with celerity). Of course, wolves can come up with reasonable compromise candidates and face lynch pressure as easily as villagers, but I don't see anything fundamentally wolfish about Wagon's behavior.
With as many candidates having received significant votes as we saw yesterday, it is highly likely that there was a wolf or two among our initial '7 way' and still more likely than not in our '4 way' as well.
For the lazy, the 7 way included Rovsea, Dedonus, Wagon, Yakman, Alxeu, and Cailean.
Wagon called for consolidation, and Arky, Claude, and Alxeu (and me and sleepy) subsequently switched our votes. The end result of this was to remove Rovsea, Yakman, and Dedonus from consideration.
Caillean voted Yak, one of the original 7. I don't think this really makes her a throwaway. The true throw-away voter was Beartjah.
I'm most interested in Capibara and Rovsea. Rovs has been a little quiet, and he was one of the 3 people removed from consideration during consolidation. Capibara was a Hax voter, and initially suggested we kill Yak (who's a great village scapegoat) during the vote switch phase, before enthusiastically switching to Randy. He had a bit of a 'whatever' attitude about the switch too.
And so are you
I think I'm most interested in the initial consolidation phase. There were a lot of votes that seemed to benefit Rovsea.
VOTE ROVSEA
In retrospect, I'm a little embarrassed that I went along with the Randy switch. My thought at the time was "Wagon asked me to, I don't have a strong reason to be on Hax, and fuck it, Randy's dead anyway" If there's one thing to be learned from Werewolf, it's that people are suggestible and I'm no exception.
It's hard to definitively rule on Wagon's guilt or innocence at this point. He was under lynch pressure, and 'the guy who hasn't voted yet and who hasn't received any votes' is a reasonable compromise candidate (that being said, it is nice to have Randy around, I hope he continues to play regularly, and that his sister's cancer goes into remission with celerity). Of course, wolves can come up with reasonable compromise candidates and face lynch pressure as easily as villagers, but I don't see anything fundamentally wolfish about Wagon's behavior.
With as many candidates having received significant votes as we saw yesterday, it is highly likely that there was a wolf or two among our initial '7 way' and still more likely than not in our '4 way' as well.
For the lazy, the 7 way included Rovsea, Dedonus, Wagon, Yakman, Alxeu, and Cailean.
Wagon called for consolidation, and Arky, Claude, and Alxeu (and me and sleepy) subsequently switched our votes. The end result of this was to remove Rovsea, Yakman, and Dedonus from consideration.
Caillean voted Yak, one of the original 7. I don't think this really makes her a throwaway. The true throw-away voter was Beartjah.
I'm most interested in Capibara and Rovsea. Rovs has been a little quiet, and he was one of the 3 people removed from consideration during consolidation. Capibara was a Hax voter, and initially suggested we kill Yak (who's a great village scapegoat) during the vote switch phase, before enthusiastically switching to Randy. He had a bit of a 'whatever' attitude about the switch too.
And so are you
I think I'm most interested in the initial consolidation phase. There were a lot of votes that seemed to benefit Rovsea.
VOTE ROVSEA
No, aedan's theory is that the vote swap was engineered by a wolf who needed to move a lot of votes because those who voted them were not around at deadline. The people who voted me were obviously around. I was out of contention due to Claude's voteswap a couple of minutes before the swap, anyway.
We have aedan, Rovsea, alxeu and beartjah voting the same people as yesterday. Not very impressive. Seeing as Rovs has a vote I’ll
Unvote alynkio
Vote Rovsea
Unvote alynkio
Vote Rovsea
Yeah, I realized that I'm voting the same person as yesterday when alyn mentioned it. I'm probably going to swap soon if no one else does first. I would prefer an official votecount @brovahkiin, though, first.
I'm working on it sorry about the lack of votecounts I'm not feeling great and my heads pounding like Minerva is gonna burst out of it
Sleepy: 2
Arky
Beartjah
Wagon: 2
Aedan
Rovsea
Caillean: 2
Wagon
Alxeu
Arky: 2
Dedonus
Claude
Rovs: 2
Alynkio
Sleepy
Tonkatoy: 1
Yakman
Not Voted
@tonkatoy5
@Capibara
Arky
Beartjah
Wagon: 2
Aedan
Rovsea
Caillean: 2
Wagon
Alxeu
Arky: 2
Dedonus
Claude
Rovs: 2
Alynkio
Sleepy
Tonkatoy: 1
Yakman
Not Voted
@tonkatoy5
@Capibara
We've got five people tied with two votes, I think.
I'm going to go ahead and break that tie because I don't like how quiet it is right now.
Unvote Caillean
Vote Wagonlitz
The case on him and Caillean are the same, and since I think the case on Caillean is a good one, might as well vote for Wagon, instead.
I'm going to go ahead and break that tie because I don't like how quiet it is right now.
Unvote Caillean
Vote Wagonlitz
The case on him and Caillean are the same, and since I think the case on Caillean is a good one, might as well vote for Wagon, instead.