The Most Sublime Porte - An Ottoman AAR

[Riotkiller]

I would not wish to be Germany's Chief of Staff about now. Staying well out of it.

Oh dear, Germany are in for it now...

The Sublime Porte is best to remain above such petty disagreements.

Whatever it is that Germany's President is smoking, I want it.

The Germans are certainly enjoying a very optimistic attitude, yeah...

The extremists on both sides of the aisle are getting more and more strident. On the one hand, clamping down on one faction or the other may drive them into open revolt; on the other, if the government does nothing, they might well erode the public's faith in their leaders and gain much stronger bases of support, which would have dire consequences in the long run. Either way, I wouldn't want to be standing under the sword of Damocles that is almost certainly dangling over the Porte's head.

I almost have to admire Germany's pluck in thinking that they can take on another set of Great Powers so soon after losing the first Great War, but I have a feeling things will not go well for them. (Of course, I could be wrong -- maybe the Americans will finally cross the sea, swoop in to rescue the Irish, then use that as a springboard to dictate a new Pax Americana while brave Doughboys march through the streets of London and Paris. One can dream...)

Indeed, the transition to democracy may have been achieved, but there are threats to it on both fronts, and moving too far in one direction is bound to create a backlash in the other.

I would be surprised if the American-German Alliance was able to turn things around so soon after the first, but I suppose stranger things have happened in history

Maybe we should find a small unguaranteed neighbour to keep the minds of people busy

Not that I'd cherish a People's Socialist Empire of Ottoman

Sadly we have no easy target neighbours, the web of alliances runs extremely deep - and the hypocritical liberals in the British Empire are only too happy to guarantee these fascist regimes as long as they keep pressuring our borders.

That's it, let the other Great Powers exhaust themselves. Though the Sublime Porte is going to be in for a ride all its own, methinks.

Yes, we might be outside of the war, but we're certainly not in the clear.

Did I read that right? Are the Irish actually winning against Great Britain all by themselves?

The war-score is 41% in Britain's favour, so it doesn't look too good for the Irish at the moment

 

[RossN]

Poor Ireland.

Just catching up now and a very interesting turn of events. While staying neutral and quasi-isolationist might not be the most dynamic policy it might be good for the Ottoman people.

 

[Telcharinogrod]

The war-score is 41% in Britain's favour, so it doesn't look too good for the Irish at the moment

Aw, shame.

 

[Surt]

How bad is the manpower situation really? or is it money that is still hurting rearmament?

 

[shade55]

Communists and Fascists run rampant, leading open revolt and taking over neighboring countries in a flash. Meanwhile, the other Great Powers have already gone to war again so soon after the devastation of the last. The world is truly becoming a dangerous place.

But if the Empire can survive the challenges of the nineteenth century, it can survive the challenges of the twentieth too.

 

[Telcharinogrod]

How bad is the manpower situation really? or is it money that is still hurting rearmament?

I expect mainly the Great War Surrender peace conditions?

 

[Riotkiller]

The decision of the Sublime Porte to maintain neutrality in the Second Great War began to reap dividends in late 1912 and early 1913, with the Ottoman economy booming due to increased demand for Ottoman goods. With Germany blockaded from the North, West, and South, it had massively increased its imports from the Russian Empire, and the Russians themselves were keen to make as much profit as possible from this – meaning that they were happy to buy huge quantities of Ottoman goods and then sell them on to the desperate Germans. Ottoman businesses were also able to sell goods to the Entente Powers, and the Ottoman merchant navy found itself in high demand around the world.

This economic boon, combined with the final paying off of the Great War reparations in spring 1913, allowed Pertev Pasha to begin rebuilding the Ottoman Military. The restrictions of the Treaty of Edirne also expired in March 1913, and the Bosphorus Tolls were restored with the rest of the world too busy to prevent it. The 1913 Ottoman Census was thus one of the most important in decades, as the Sublime Porte was keen to know where they had plentiful supplies of manpower and to track the many new businesses partaking in the export boom.

The census revealed that the Ottoman population had reached 19.69M households, with the vilayets of Cairo and Alexandria in Egypt being the most populous along with Gibe in Ethiopia. Just over a quarter of the population of the Empire was made up of ethnic Turks (much to the horror of the Young Turks), while Misri, Maghrebi, Mashriqi, and Bedouin Arabs made up another quarter between them. Oromo, Greeks, Amhara, Serbs, and Bulgars also made up significant minorities; while one quarter of the population was made up of non-Muslim peoples (predominantly Orthodox Christians, though Copts in Africa and Catholics in the Balkans were also quite common). The overall Ottoman literacy rate had also increased to an impressive 67.8%.

The headline figures of the 1913 Ottoman Census

More figures from the 1913 Ottoman Census​

Using the new population figures the Sublime Porte began to raise the new Fourth Army in the Levant, and an ambitious five year plan to fully restore the Ottoman Army back to its pre-war strength began. Despite the isolationism that had been embraced by Pertev Pasha’s ministry, he was fully aware that the Russians may yet attempt to reconquer their former lands in the Caucasus, and that if the Habsburgs were victorious in the Second Great War then we might be their next target, too. As a military man himself, Pertev also knew that despite the introduction of new superior Guards regiments and advances in artillery that had seen the Ottoman military at the forefront of technology, there was no substitute for raw numbers in modern warfare – Something the first Great War had shown to our cost.

Meanwhile in the Empire, Enver Pasha’s Young Turks began to look for new strategies for growth in 1913. Following the outlawing of their anti-socialist trade unions, they looked for new legal loopholes to exploit, and in April 1913 began organising a series of soup kitchens for unemployed Turks in the vilayet of Ankara. While many liberal and socialist commentators decried this as nothing short of open bribery of voters, the kitchens were not technically illegal and thus Pertev Pasha begrudgingly permitted them to remain open.

The Young Turks began opening Soup Kitchens for unemployed Turks in April 1913

The vilayet of Armenia is paralysed by a series of strikes in summer 1913

Pensions were expanded to include all Ottoman workers in the Universal Pensions Act of July 1913
​

He was in a far less tolerant mood when a minor factory strike spiralled via a series of sympathy strikes to cause a total collapse of industrial output in the vilayet of Armenia later in April however, and ordered the immediate curtailing of all local newspapers believed to support the strikers. This put him at odds with his coalition partner and interior minister Ahmet Bey, and when the Adana Bank collapsed in June 1913 and triggered a series of heavy bank runs, the Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi forced the Porte to agree to stricter regulation of the banking sector despite the ruling liberal’s belief in free trade. Sensing Pertev Pasha’s position of weakness, Ahmet Bey was further able to persuade the Grand Vizier to pass a new bill increasing pensions once more and expanding them to include all workers in the Ottoman Empire in July 1913, in return for supporting a final crackdown in Armenia to end the strikes there.

Pertev Pasha had now been forced into implementing a series of social reforms that his Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi had been opposed to during the previous election campaign, but the constant spectre of communism was leaving him with no option here. There had been a handful of defections to the conservative Osmanli Demokrat Firkasi over the measures, but this had only served to increase his reliance on his Sosyal Demokrat coalition partners and move the government further to the left – with the opposition socialists often agreeing to support certain liberal bills in return for further social reforms. This continued into September 1913 when another key socialist demand was passed into law with the 14 Hour maximum Work Day, which severely restrained some of the most exploitative employers in the Empire. Even so, trade unionism continued to grow and the eyalet of Gallipoli near the capital saw itself become the latest hotbed of the left as a result.

The collapse of the Adana Bank saw the Sublime Porte move to implementer tighter regulation of the Ottoman Financial Sector

The Ottoman Empire implemented the 14 Hour Work Day in September 1913 despite heavy industrial opposition​

September 21st 1913 had also seen huge news from the Second Great War with the German government surrendering for the second time in six years. Austria-Hungary annexed the majority of the Kingdom of Galicia-Lodomeria, leaving only the city of Krakow as a technically independent Free City, while the Germans were once again humiliated and forced to agree to massive reparations and more military restrictions. Their punishment stretched even further this time however with the Kingdom of Bavaria gaining independence from Germany, and Archduke Franz Ferdinand von Habsburg being put on the restored Bavarian throne [1]. The Great War itself continued on however, as the American government refused to surrender, and President Eugene V. Debs vowed to continue the war rather than suffer a humiliation like that which the Germans had had inflicted on them.

And so 1914 began with the submarine campaigns in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans continuing on unabated, as both sides attempting to damage the merchant shipping of the other. Ottoman public outrage hit fever pitch following the sinking of the steamer SS Trabzon by British submarines in March 1914, but any chance that this might lead to an Ottoman declaration of war was swiftly ended when the Americans also ‘accidentally’ sank the Ottoman steamer Topkapi just five days later. Instead, Ottoman public attention once more turned inward, and the socialists began to press for mandatory health and safety regulations following a serious accident at a Clothing Factory in Bulgaria which garnered significant sympathetic media coverage.

A series of tragic accidents in factories led to calls for minimal safety regulations to be implemented in the Empire in 1914

Huge protests in the liberal heartland of Hudavendigar saw Pertev Pasha increase Pensions yet again in October 1914​

Nevertheless the economic boom continued through 1914, and while the workers remained on the edge in a number of vilayets, the Ottoman Treasury was delighted by the continued increase in revenue, and the expansion of the army continued at pace with the formation of the Fifth Army in Egypt that summer. And when the state of Hudavendigar saw more widespread strikes in October 1914, the Porte once more moved to make concessions to the workers with yet another increase in Pensions; an act which saw Pertev Pasha suffer numerous backbench rebellions and as a result call a new election for March 1915.

While the reforms that his government had passed had been very popular, Pertev knew that there was significant danger that credit for them was given more to his coalition partners and the opposition socialists – especially if the liberals ran another campaign opposing said reforms. As a result, Pertev Pasha’s 1915 election campaign saw a marked swing to the left from the Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi as Pertev championed a new “socially responsible capitalism” and promised that he would consider further reforms in future, even despite many businesses slamming the liberals as a result. The continued embracing of the temperance movement by Rifat Pasha’s conservatives, and the strongly moralist positions they took up, scared many businesses away from fully abandoning the liberals however, as did the highly protectionist policies espoused by the Osmanli Demokrat Firkasi.

The 1915 Ottoman General Election Results (March 13th 1915)​

As the results came in there were mixed feelings for the Grand Vizier. His Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi had once more remained the largest party, but had dropped 17 seats from the previous election down to 282 of the 700 available seats. Ahmet Bey’s Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi renewed the governing coalition following an excellent night for them, as they increased their share by 40 up to 110 seats – overtaking the conservatives to become the third largest party in the process. This leftward shift was replicated across the Empire as the opposition socialist Osmanli Ahali Firkasi under their young leader Husseyin Bey saw their best ever results: winning 169 seats (an increase of 37). Even worse for the Grand Vizier, the communist Ihtilalci Avam Firkasi (Revolutionary Commoners Party) made its first electoral breakthroughs in the capital as they gained five new seats to a total of 7, with a seat in Constantinople itself alongside their traditional hotbeds in Salonika and Sofia and other new seats in Smyrna, Nicosia, and Belgrade.

For the Right however it was a disaster. The Osmanli Demokrat Firkasi dropped 9 seats to just 76, which was little better than the previous conservative nadir of 66 in the 1906 election, when there had been 100 fewer seats up for grabs. The islamist Teceddüt Firkasi also suffered heavy losses; down 15 to just 9 seats, predominantly in Eastern Anatolia and Azerbaijan. The libertarian Ahrar Firkasi had been decimated as it lost 35 seats to hold just 17, as many of its voters blamed it for walking out of the coalition and thus being unable to prevent the passing of the social reforms it so vehemently opposed. And even the Young Turk-affiliated Ittihat ve Terakki Cemiyeti lost 6 seats down to hold just 30.

This defeat for the Young Turks was the best news for Pertev Pasha from the election though, and he retained the Grand Viziership even as the stamps went down for a new more socially liberal government. Pertev had proven that he was able to blow with the wind in Ottoman politics, and by recognising that the population had shifted to the left and moving that way himself, many credited him with keeping the Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi in power and preventing a far bigger shift to the socialists from occurring. He would be forced to showcase his left-wing credentials on numerous occasions in 1915, both when he blamed the Ottoman bureaucracy for heavy bread queues in August 1915 and promised to increase the budget for the Transport and Logistics Department to prevent this from happening again; and again in November when the Ottoman government officially recognised May 1st as International Labour Day.

The Sublime Porte officially recognises May 1st as International Labour Day (November 1915)

The rapidly expanding Ottoman Army made a number of impressive public marches through cities in August 1915​

The Ottoman government also began to show signs of returning to the international arena when they agreed to uphold their alliance with the Empire of Japan in their new war restoring Japanese control over the Korean peninsula in 1915, although this localised conflict was not attracting much international attention due to the continued fighting in the Americas in the Second Great War. The newly raised Ottoman Sixth Army also marched through Constantinople in an impressive display of military might in August 1915 as Pertev Pasha aimed to restore calm in the streets of the capital following new Young Turk backed unrest. And so as 1915 ended, Pertev Pasha’s hold on power was once-more at full strength; and the Sublime Porte itself was finding its feet again in the post-war world. With the economy going from strength to strength, perhaps now it was time to start looking for revenge for the defeats of the previous decade…


[1] Only the state of Upper Bavaria was released, and it became a satellite of Austria-Hungary

 

[Riotkiller]

Poor Ireland.

Just catching up now and a very interesting turn of events. While staying neutral and quasi-isolationist might not be the most dynamic policy it might be good for the Ottoman people.

Indeed, with the restricted size of the Ottoman Army after the Treaty of Edirne isolationism was the only viable option. Now that those restrictions are over, we might see a more active role in foreign affairs be embraced by the Porte.

How bad is the manpower situation really? or is it money that is still hurting rearmament?

The "Great War Capitulation" CB that was enforced against us at the end of the Great War automatically cuts your army by 75% and prevents you from hiring any more brigades for five years - it's really quite brutal. It was only after this expired that the army could begin to grow again.

Communists and Fascists run rampant, leading open revolt and taking over neighboring countries in a flash. Meanwhile, the other Great Powers have already gone to war again so soon after the devastation of the last. The world is truly becoming a dangerous place.

But if the Empire can survive the challenges of the nineteenth century, it can survive the challenges of the twentieth too.

Let us hope so! The crazy state of the world means that sooner or later the communists and fascists will surely take over a far more significant state and really terrify the world though.

I expect mainly the Great War Surrender peace conditions?

Indeed

 

[stnylan]

The Ottomans are making very good use of this period of peace whilst the rest of the world wars.

Now, my knowledge of Islamic culture broadly is pretty deficient, but it strikes me that from what I have heard of the concept of ummah might provide a pretty solid theological and cultural basis for a welfare state that this Ottoman Empire seems to be steadily developing. Of course, I realise the Empire rulers are more Turkish than Arabic, and I don't know how well the concept translates over or indeed to what degree it exists in the islamic world at all. just a random thought.

 

[darkhaze9]

Another brilliant chapter, keep up the good work!

 

[diskoerekto]

Great chapter, it’s good that the economy is improving, the left is getting strengthened and new reforms are passing. Do we have any political reforms left or did we finish them and that’s why we’re mainly doing the socioeconomical ones now?

The game not having Alawite/Alevi as a religion is really disappointing. It’s weird to see a Turkey/Ottoman with all its Muslims as Sunnis. The rift between the Sunni/Alevi still has implications today.

Now I wonder with whom we’ll start our run of revenge? Ally with a few more neighbors of them (Sweden?) and go for Russia? Or take back what we’ve lost and more from the Austrians? Or someone else entirely? Let’s wait and find out

 

[GangsterSynod]

I'm personally in favor of going up against Austria. It would be cool to see the Ottomans marching into Vienna.

 

[Riotkiller]

The Ottomans are making very good use of this period of peace whilst the rest of the world wars.

Now, my knowledge of Islamic culture broadly is pretty deficient, but it strikes me that from what I have heard of the concept of ummah might provide a pretty solid theological and cultural basis for a welfare state that this Ottoman Empire seems to be steadily developing. Of course, I realise the Empire rulers are more Turkish than Arabic, and I don't know how well the concept translates over or indeed to what degree it exists in the islamic world at all. just a random thought.

Yeah, I'm not too familiar with Islamic law/culture either, although I do know that zakat was seen as a charitable obligation similar to the Jewish tithe or Christian alms, but practised far more widely, so perhaps that could also lend theological credence to an Ottoman welfare state - and I believe that private waqf's often filled this role in OTL by operating soup kitchens under both the Ottomans and the League of Nations Mandates that followed WW1. I must confess that I know very little about the Arabic concepts like ummah though.

Another brilliant chapter, keep up the good work!

Thanks

Great chapter, it’s good that the economy is improving, the left is getting strengthened and new reforms are passing. Do we have any political reforms left or did we finish them and that’s why we’re mainly doing the socioeconomical ones now?

The game not having Alawite/Alevi as a religion is really disappointing. It’s weird to see a Turkey/Ottoman with all its Muslims as Sunnis. The rift between the Sunni/Alevi still has implications today.

Now I wonder with whom we’ll start our run of revenge? Ally with a few more neighbors of them (Sweden?) and go for Russia? Or take back what we’ve lost and more from the Austrians? Or someone else entirely? Let’s wait and find out

The only political reforms remaining are changing to full Proportional Representation, which I don't think that the liberals would do when the current system is working so well for them; or lowering the years of military service which I don't really want to do - but the social reforms are coming thick and fast due to the strength of the socialists and social liberals in the upper house so even those few remaining political reforms have little desire from the population at large anyway.

Yes, religion is rather under-done in V2 and is easily ignored for the whole game. The base-game only has Sunni and Shia as Islamic religions, although I added the Ibadi myself due to its relative ease (being concentrated in Oman and a few small communities in Tunisia/Libya). But given how little religious interaction there is in game I guess I can understand why Paradox didn't go into more detail there.

I'm personally in favor of going up against Austria. It would be cool to see the Ottomans marching into Vienna.

As for who we'll be facing, we'll just have to wait and see what opportunities arise there . Russia and Austria-Hungary are both tempting targets, but the Ottoman dream of unifying the Arabian peninsula is still yet to be achieved due to Oman and British Aden, and of course the Greek attack during the Great War hasn't been forgotten. Nor has our defeat in the Ottoman-Persian War... Many potential targets.

 

[Specialist290]

It certainly looks like the Ottoman state has charted a course through dangerous shoals. Pertev Pasha has adroitly ridden the currents of popular opinion, though perhaps at the cost to his party's fundamental principles -- but then, in politics, holding onto principles all too often seems to come second behind holding onto power.

That said, with spirits high and the nation generally sound, it sounds as though the time is ripe for the Ottomans to go on the warpath once again.

 

[shade55]

Glad to see that the recovery is going well. It certainly gives you more breathing room in foreign affairs now that you've started expanding the army, and those social reforms will certainly help maintain the calm at home too.

If it can be done without bringing everyone else down on you, I am fully in favor of teaching the Austrians a lesson. Perhaps it's even time to break up their empire and establish a new order in the Carpathian basin.

 

[Wixelt]

Any action that shits on the Habsburgs is good.

 

[Riotkiller]

The period of Ottoman Isolationism following the end of the First Great War and the Habsburg Reconquest of Croatia had been something which the Sublime Porte had had little option but to initially embrace on the back of those defeats. With the treasury bankrupt, the navy outdated, and the army defeated there had been little doubt in the Empire that renewed conflict with the Entente would lead to anything other than another defeat even more costly than the first. And so when the Second Great War broke out and the Germans and Americans once more marched to war (and indeed, to another defeat), the Ottoman general public had shown no appetite to join them in a second misadventure. Peace had been embraced across the political spectrum as an obvious necessity, as all sides appreciated the need for recovery.

It could not however be said that the Sublime Porte had been inactive during this period of isolationism. Yes, the Ottoman Army had remained small and demobilised even when the Porte was ‘technically’ at war with Peru and with Korea, with neither conflict eliciting anything more than a raised eyebrow and the cutting of already almost non-existent trade ties. However, the Sublime Porte had been furiously attempting to repair its prestige on the global stage, with one singular goal driving Ottoman Foreign Policy for this entire period: The end of the Quadruple Entente.

The Entente Cordiale had initially begun as an alliance between the Kingdom of France and the Russian Empire signed at the turn of the century, and had soon been joined by the United Kingdom shortly before the outbreak of the First Great War. By the end of that war the ‘Triple Entente’ had been joined by Austria-Hungary, and the Coalition had dominated European – and indeed Global – affairs ever since. The doomed attempt of the German-American alliance to overturn this had however shown the first cracks in this alliance when the Russian Empire elected to remain neutral in the Second Great War, which they argued had been technically started by Austro-Hungarian bellicosity against the Kingdom of Galicia-Lodomeria (an opinion coincidentally shared by the Sublime Porte).

When Pertev Pasha had taken office as Grand Vizier he had immediately surmised that even after the restrictions of the Treaty of Edirne had lapsed, the Porte would still be in absolutely no position to challenge the world order dictated by the Entente, and that fighting all four members again would inevitably lead to another defeat. And so his overriding goal was to therefore secure an alliance with at least one of the Entente, and thereby prise them out of the Coalition. With the increase in tensions between Austria-Hungary and the Russian Empire, it was perhaps logical that agreement with one of these would be sought... But Pertev believed that any alliance with either of them wouldn’t be worth the paper it was written on, due to both having irredentist claims against the Ottoman Empire: Austria-Hungary in Slavonia, and the Russian Empire in the Caucasus.

Grand Vizier Pertev Pasha established a strong relationship with French Prime Minister Raymond Poincaré​

And so the candidates that Pertev most sought to woo were the French and the British, with work beginning on improving relations with both of them. The British Empire however was a star that was clearly on the wane by now: The increasingly fractured hold on British India had seen a number of Princely States declare independence, and when the Irish War of Independence began, it looked like the final nail in the coffin. Even the apparent British triumph here had only seen them reassert full control over the country of Ulster; with the rest of the island now made of the “Irish Free State” which was technically a Dominion of Britain but which maintained a great deal of distance between the London and Dublin governments.

The Kingdom of France, on the other hand, was the world’s premier power. The French Navy was scarcely smaller than the British Royal Navy by now; and the French Army was the most formidable fighting force in the world. The devastating defeats it had inflicted on the Sublime Porte in the Great War remained in the memory, and the successful crossing of the Rhine and occupation of Germany in both the first and second Great Wars had only further illustrated its superiority. Pertev Pasha had made two trips to France since taking power, and a third was already planned to begin at the end of 1915.

There was however a hitch in any plan to ally with the French: Sultan Abdulhamid II. The Sultan was a noted Francophobe who was unafraid of making publicly critical statements of the French due to their treatment of Muslim subjects in the French Protectorate of Morocco and in French West Africa. In his role as Caliph of Islam Abdulhamid saw himself as the true protector of these Muslims, and he was loath to allow the détente between Paris and Constantinople to translate into an actual alliance. The Sultan however was in poor health by 1915, and even as Pertev Pasha was preparing for his new trip to France in December 1915, the elderly Sultan passed away.

Abdulhamid had reigned for almost eighteen full years through which the Ottoman Empire had gone through huge social and political upheavals. His vocal support of the suffragist movement had seen the Ottoman Empire lead the world in Women’s Rights, while his liberal instincts had seen him sign away his own powers without any protest. His death was deeply mourned across the empire, as the Sultan had been a greatly unifying figure popular with almost everyone – and official condolences were sent by governments from across the world. His successor was to be the 71 year old Sultan Mehmed V, another son of the former sultan Abdulmejid and half-brother of Abdulhamid.

Sultan Mehmed V succeeds Abdulhamid II on the Ottoman throne (December 16th 1915)

The Franco-Ottoman Alliance officially ends decades of hostilities and promises a new future of friendship (January 2nd 1916)​

The death of Abdulhamid had however cleared the final barrier for Pertev Pasha away, and so during his week-long visit to France, high-level discussions took place between Pertev and his French counterpart, the conservative Prime Minister Raymond Poincaré. The result was the Franco-Ottoman Alliance, signed January 2nd 1916. Whilst not repudiating France’s commitment to the Entente, the new treaty obligated either party to come to the others aid if they were attacked. Strictly defensive in nature, it nonetheless gave the Sublime Porte a great deal of protection should the Habsburgs or the Russians come knocking – and it restored the place of the Sublime Porte at the heart of global affairs.

The Franco-Ottoman Alliance led to a great deal of outcry from the other Entente Powers, but despite their protestations Paris held firm. It had been very difficult for the liberal and democratic French to justify alliance with the oppressive Tsars of the Russian Empire, while the alliance with their eldest enemies in Britain had never been popular with the French populace. The French on the other hand had been historic allies with the Ottoman Empire for centuries prior to the rise of Napoleon Bonaparte, and following the Ottoman liberal reforms there was now a great deal of similarity between the two – further cementing the new ties.

The Sublime Porte harshly condemns Russian actions during the Polish Uprising (February 8th 1916)​

The most immediate reaction however was that of the Poles, who believed this would be an opportunity for them to redraw the map of Europe. On February 8th 1916 protests across the former lands of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth now under Russian control erupted into a violent revolution, and the so-called ‘Polish Congress’ declared independence. The Poles sent a delegation to the Sublime Porte expecting immediate support and backup from Pertev Pasha due to our mutual hatred of the Russians, but the Grand Vizier demurred. The Ottoman Army was only halfway through the five year plan to bring it back to strength, and with rearmament so incomplete hostilities with the Russian Empire could prove disastrous – especially as the French might see such actions as offensive rather than defensive and thus side with their Entente Partners.

So Pertev Pasha refused to join the Polish War of Independence, and instead supported the Polish with words only – harshly condemning the Russian actions in attempting to restore order there. Grateful though the Poles were for this moral support, the lack of Ottoman men and arms proved to be a hurdle that the Poles could not overcome, and their rebellion was mercilessly crushed within a few months as a result. The Russian Empire in fact emerged from the Polish rebellion stronger than ever – with many disloyal citizens now imprisoned and no longer fermenting unrest – leading to criticism from conservatives in the Ottoman Parliament that Pertev had missed a big opportunity here.

British Prime Minister Herbert H. Asquith played a key role in the New Guinea Crisis of 1916​

Tensions between the Entente Powers were by now beginning to rise elsewhere however due to the New Guinea Crisis. Clashes between settlers from the French Empire and settlers from the Netherlands had sparked an international incident, and with the British outraged over the recent signing of the Franco-Ottoman Alliance, they saw this as an opportunity for revenge by backing the Dutch. The liberal British Prime Minister Herbert Asquith was determined to prove that the Sublime Porte made for an inferior ally compared to the strength of the Entente, but in doing so he merely drove the wedge between France and Britain further apart. What started off as a minor diplomatic spat in April 1916 began to escalate rapidly through the year, and would come to dominate newspaper headlines world-wide by Summer.

It was in the midst of the growing crisis over New Guinea that the Second Great War finally came to an end. The 1915 US Presidential Election had seen incumbent Socialist Party President Eugene V. Debs run on a platform supporting the continuation of the war, but he had been defeated by anti-war Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson, with the American public tiring of the blockade inflicted on them by the British, French, and Russian Navies. Following Wilson’s swearing in, he had immediately sought an armistice on January 29th 1916, and after months of negotiations the Treaty of Washington officially ending the Second Great War was signed on May 5th, resulting in a brutal dismemberment of the United States of America.

The USA would not only be forced to slash the size of the military and pay the by-now ‘standard’ heavy war reparations, but the USA would see numerous states carved out of the union. The independence of Hawaii was restored, and the state of Oklahoma was turned into a fully independent national home for the Cherokee people. The Californian Republic seceded, taking the state of Oregon with it. Texan Independence was also restored, and included New Mexico and Arizona as all the former Mexican territories were granted independence – with the disputed territory of the Rio Grande being formed as a buffer state between Mexico and Texas. Finally, the states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and Maine seceded to form the Republic of New England, which had strong trade ties with the British Empire.

Anti-War Democratic candidate Woodrow Wilson defeated incumbent President Debs in the 1915 US Election

The United States of America is dismembered by the Treaty of Washington at the end of the Second Great War (May 5th 1916)​

The signing of the Treaty of Washington was hotly followed by the end of the Korean War as the Japanese triumphantly resecured control of the peninsula, which meant that the Sublime Porte no longer had an excuse to maintain neutrality in the New Guinea Crisis. Tensions had continued to grow with neither the Anglo-Dutch nor the French backing down through summer 1916 for fear of losing face, and so even despite the British and French governments having no wish for war, there seemed to be nothing stopping this from happening. Italy and Germany had both declared for the British side; keen to inflict a defeat on their French neighbours. The Italian declaration had however triggered their interminable enemy Austria-Hungary to declare for the French, and the Russian Empire followed suit in July.

Pertev Pasha continued to hesitate, with the rearmament program so incomplete, but the Sublime Porte had put too much stock into the Franco-Ottoman Alliance to abandon it now, and so the Porte found itself in the strange situation of siding with both the Habsburgs and the Russians, and against their former allies in Italy and Germany. After declaring public support for the French position on August 26th 1916, it seemed inevitable that the Empire would be drawn into a new world war within weeks, but while the army remained undersized it was nonetheless confident that a repeat of the British invasion of Arabia and Mesopotamia could be thwarted – not least because the Persian government remained in the Russian Orbit and would be far less likely to grant transition rights to the British in this new war.

The Sublime Porte officially backs the French during the New Guinea Crisis (August 26th 1916)​

Perhaps this was on the mind of Prime Minister Asquith, too. The British premier had grown increasingly isolated in the British Parliament as tensions over a pacific backwater had spiralled so far out of control, and the Westminster Parliament grew increasingly anti-war following the Russian declaration for the French. The threat of a Russian invasion of India had worried British politicians for decades, but with British control of the sub-continent so clearly on the wane it was now feared that this would be the final nail in the coffin. And so on September 4th 1916, Asquith caved. The French were granted sole colonial rights to Southern New Guinea, and the Dutch received nothing. War had been averted, but at great political cost.

Asquith is forced to make a humiliating climb-down to avert war over the New Guinea Crisis (September 4th 1916)​

In Britain, Asquith was forced to resign and replaced by his great rival David Lloyd George, who immediately sought to re-establish strong ties with the Russian government. Russian Tsar Nicholas II was happy to renew the Anglo-Russian Alliance, but he sensed an opportunity here. The Russian military had grown during the New Guinea Crisis, but with that war now averted, the aggressive Tsar recalled his success in beginning the First Great War and the subsequent dismemberment of the German Empire. The Tsar had not forgotten Pertev Pasha’s vocal support for the Poles, and with a new British government keen to recover its prestige after the humiliation over New Guinea, Nicholas took his chance. On September 16th 1916, just 12 days after the end of the New Guinea Crisis had averted a global war… Russian emissaries arrived at the Sublime Porte. The world would see war after all – the Tsar had decreed it.

Russian aggression sparks the beginning of the Third Great War (September 16th 1916)​

 

[Riotkiller]

It certainly looks like the Ottoman state has charted a course through dangerous shoals. Pertev Pasha has adroitly ridden the currents of popular opinion, though perhaps at the cost to his party's fundamental principles -- but then, in politics, holding onto principles all too often seems to come second behind holding onto power.

That said, with spirits high and the nation generally sound, it sounds as though the time is ripe for the Ottomans to go on the warpath once again.

Pertev's successful premiership has certainly charted a course through many potential pitfalls, and the economic recovery has been nothing short of miraculous. His truest test is yet to come however: His legacy could well be decided by this new war - success or failure.

Glad to see that the recovery is going well. It certainly gives you more breathing room in foreign affairs now that you've started expanding the army, and those social reforms will certainly help maintain the calm at home too.

If it can be done without bringing everyone else down on you, I am fully in favor of teaching the Austrians a lesson. Perhaps it's even time to break up their empire and establish a new order in the Carpathian basin.

Any action that shits on the Habsburgs is good.

Tempting though retaking Croatia was, it was the Russians who struck first here. Austria-Hungary shall have to wait...

 

[Surt]

Good luck with your new allies, who are undefeated since ... the Ottomans defeated them long ago?

 

[HIMDogson]

Long live the Sultan and Vive le Roi!