1997 Election Results
Just like five years ago, New Year’s Day had been a very busy day for the people of Prussia. Unlike the last time, however, these elections acted more like a referendum on the SDP-VP government than as elections to vote in a new government coalition. In addition, the question of Prussia’s new flag was put up for a popular vote. When the polls closed and initial figures arrived about the turn-out, it became clear that even more people came out to vote than last time. Particularly in rural areas, more Prussians had gone out of their way to vote in one of the voting booths in the schools and churches in their towns. This fact would later prove vital for some of the parties and their results.
Just like last time, the first results came in from Masuria, Prussia’s capital region with a large rural hinterland. Last time, the Junkerpartei and the Erneuerungspartei were the biggest victors in the province. This time was not different. Both parties remained the biggest, with the Junkerpartei even growing due to the higher turnout. A surprising entry was reserved to the Greens who came second in Königsberg, but not close enough to challenge Trump’s personal results. The Christian Democrats failed to make a major breakthrough in the province, probably because of their too pro-EU sentiment.
While the final votes from Königsberg were counted, results started to come in from Silesia. The regionalist Volgapartei was the biggest party in Silesia in 1992, but many expected the party to fall back because of new competitors in the centre and left side of politics. What happened could only be described as a catastrophe for the regionalist party. Not only did they lose considerable votes to the Greens, Social Democrats, Christian Democrats and Syndicalists, but even the Junkers were able to nibble away some valuable constituencies. The Volgapartei had lost considerably and wasn’t expected to win more seats in any of the other provinces of Prussia. The first big loser of this election had announced itself. The fact that it was a governing party didn’t bode well for the Social Democrats.
At the same time as the Silesian seats were being appointed, the results from West-Pomerania came in. Turnout in the rural province had increased with almost ten percent. In 1992, the Junkerpartei managed to convince these regions with their mostly agricultural program, while the Erneuerungspartei spoke to the urban elites. This year, that pattern continued, but the Erneuerungspartei was able to win some constituencies from the Junkers. Once again, the Greens won considerable votes in urban constituencies. Combined with the rise of the Syndicalist Party, the Social Democrats saw their electorate in West-Pomerania shrink even further. The Christian Democrats made minor gains, but were not able to break the hegemony of the Junkers.
The province of East-Pomerania, and the major port of Danzig, came next. In 1992, the province was the stronghold of Ludwig Walenstadt and the SDP. The biggest question was whether or not the Syndicalists would be able to successfully compete with the Social Democrats. Unemployment had hit Danzig hard, but Walenstadt’s home constituency was expected to remain loyal to the Social Democrats. While indeed the SDP remained the largest party in most of the area around Danzig, the Syndicalists made major gains, while Josef Tusk of the Christian Democrats came second in Danzig. In the rural areas the Junkerpartei established itself once again as the biggest party.
Just as in 1992, the last results to be made public were those of Posen. The Social Democrats were able to win most of the votes in 1992, but this time there was far more competition on the left. In addition, the region was hit hard by unemployment during the Walenstadt-administration. The results spoke for themselves. The SDP joined the VP in the ranks of losing parties. Not only did the Syndicalist make their major breakthrough in the region, but even the CD.P won many constituencies which previously had voted for the SDP. In addition, the city of Küstrin was won by the Greens.
When the official percentages were made public, it was clear who were the victors and who were the losers in this election. The governing parties, the SDP and the VP, were clearly punished for the unemployment; the domestic terrorism and the rising foreign competition which had plagued their term in office. The SDP fell back from 38.5% to 20%, while the VP fell from 19.2% to 7.5%. The Syndicalists made their grand entry into politics with an astonishing 15% of the votes. The Greens, the other new party this election cycle, did quite well and took just over 7.5% of the votes, making them more popular than the Volgapartei. The CD.P gained 10% of the votes. It was not the grand entry which they had hoped for, but it was enough to put them in an important spot once coalition talks would begin. The EP could be considered among the victors, even though they gained less than in the 1992 elections (as they dropped from 19.2% to 15%), they gained enough votes to recover some of the seats they lost to the CD.P who split from the EP. However, the true victor of the 1997 elections was the Junkerpartei. In 1992 they had 23,1% of the vote, but now they managed to get 25% and became Prussia’s largest party. This was mostly due to the loss of the SDP, but the Junkers’ propaganda had a considerable impact on the turnout in rural areas, where local producers feared competition from abroad.
Translated into seats in the Landtag, this meant that for the next five years, Prussia’s parliament would be highly fragmented. The Junkers were the biggest party to be represented in parliament, with 88 seats to their name. In second place, the Sozialdemokraten held 70 seats, considerably less than the 135 seats they held before the elections. Syndikalist Aktion für Preussen gained 53 seats, making them as big as the Erneuerungspartei (which also held 53 seats), turning them both into the third biggest faction in the Landtag. Chrislich Demokratisches Platform came fourth with 35 seats. Closing the ranks were the Grünen für Preussen and the Volgapartei, both with 26 seats. The next government coalition talks were going to be hard. It remained to be seen whether or not the Syndicalists would participate in the talks. If Walenstadt wanted to remain Chancellor, he could not do so without approaching the far-left. On the other hand, a centre-right coalition consisting of CD.P, EP and JP was a possibility, depending on how the three parties felt towards each other. But such a coalition would only hold a majority of one seat and would certainly prove unstable at times. The possibility of a minority government was also raised and certainly had some traction within the SDP, which saw it as the only way they could continue to govern.
The new parliamentary composition:
SAP: 53 seats (
+53)
SDP: 70 seats (
-65)
GfP: 26 seats (
+26)
VP: 26 seats (
-41)
CD.P: 35 seats (
-6)
EP: 53 seats (
+9)
JP: 88 seats (
+24)
At the same time, the results of the referendum on Prussia’s flag were also released. Between the three options, there was a clear victor which managed to get a majority of the public’s approval. While the black-and-white flag and the simple tricolour both managed to get 22.5% of the votes, the tricolour with eagle and crest managed to get 55% of the public behind it. As a result, the flag would be adopted as Prussia’s new national flag and replaced the old flag which had a controversial past.
Coalition talks began when President Birt invited Johann Korwin-Mikke of the Junkerpartei and appointed him as formateur, due to the Junkerpartei being the biggest in the Landtag. Korwin-Mikke then proceeded to invite the other parties to talk about a possible coalition. Donald Trump was the first to be invited to the Junkerpartei’s HQ. Although the EP and the JP had some conflicting views on trade policy and economic policy, they generally agreed on the equally important issues of residency, foreign policy and military policy. Trump and Korwin-Mikke managed to agree on a compromise regarding tariffs. While the EP was against high tariffs on foreign goods, they were willing to introduce protective barriers against goods from abroad which were produced locally in order to protect Prussian goods such as agricultural products and clothing. In addition, the Junkerpartei spoke out in favour of free trade, as long as it benefitted the Prussian agricultural sector. However, the EP and the JP together also needed the CD.P if they were to form a government. The question remained whether or not the Christian Democrats were so willing to come aboard the centre-right coalition.
Donald Trump, celebrating the election results with his parents.
Josef Tusk of the CD.P was the next party leader to pass by Korwin-Mikke’s desk at the Junkers’ HQ. While the economic policy and religious views of both parties generally aligned, Josef Tusk was concerned by the pro-Russian stance of both the Junkers and the Erneuerungspartei. Tusk did not want Prussia to fall back into the national populist sphere of influence of Moscow and looked towards the EU to achieve this. But both the JP and the EP opposed a Prussian entry into the EU. Tusk asked Korwin-Mikke what he would do with Prussia’s already ongoing integration process in the Visegrad Group and the Junker simply stated that such a path would be abandoned. Tusk then informed whether or not he would continue to make trade deals with the EU and Korwin-Mikke stated that such things would go against Prussia’s interests. Finally Tusk asked if the Junkers were willing to compromise on this issue. Korwin-Mikke’s answer was the final nail in the coffin of the centre-right coalition between the Junkers, the Erneuerungspartei and the Christian Democrats. The Junker basically said that the CD.P had to abandon their pro-EU stance or be wiped from the electoral map by an anti-Western agricultural electorate. Tusk clearly disagreed and chose to end the talks there and then. Korwin-Mikke’s plans for a centre-right coalition had to be abandoned. To achieve a majority he would now need both the Volgapartei and the Greens, or either the SDP and the SAP. Those last two options were clearly not preferable and so Korwin-Mikke invited the Greens and the Volgapartei to talk about a coalition. The Greens were the most sceptical of the two, as they saw the Junkers’ plan for agricultural renewal included many environmentally-damaging actions. In addition, Trump’s remark that climate change was a hoax was widely seen as the biggest reason why the Greens should not enter into a coalition with the EP. The Volgapartei at first was willing to hear Korwin-Mikke out, but as it became clear to them that the Greens wouldn’t join them, there was no reason for them to enter a discussion.
Johann Korwin-Mikke of the Junkerpartei during coalition talks with the Volgapartei and the Greens.
When it became clear that forming a government between the Junkerpartei and the Erneuerungspartei was impossible without other parties willing to support them, Korwin-Mikke reported back to President Birt and stepped down as formateur. President Birt then appointed caretaker-Chancellor Walenstadt as the new formateur, hoping that he could avoid an electoral gridlock. Chancellor Walenstadt considered the several options. There was the option of governing with a minority government and hoping that there was one party which would be willing to support them. The two realistic minority-government options which presented themselves were a SDP-VP-GfP-CD.P coalition with support from the Syndicalists or a SDP-VP-GfP-SAP coalition with support from the CD.P. But Walenstadt quickly threw both of those ideas away as he didn’t want to sell out the government to the Syndicalists. In addition, the CD.P would likely not support the far-left in government. An alternate option presented itself when Donald Trump of the Erneuerungspartei approached Walenstadt in private. The two men actually got along quite well, before the topic of politics came up. Trump offered to hold a meeting between some prominent liberals and members of the SDP to negotiate a coalition between the two parties. Walenstadt accepted Trump’s offer and also invited his government coalition partner, the Volgapartei, as well as the CD.P to form a broad centrist government consisting of Social Democrats, Christian Democrats, Liberals and regionalists. Both the CD.P and the VP accepted Walenstadt’s offer and a meeting between the four parties was quickly arranged. The question soon arose how the differing ideologies of the parties would be able to come together and form a government. Walenstadt proposed to form a government centred around several key issues. Most importantly, unemployment would be one of the first things which the next government should finally take care of. Prussia’s financial position would also need to be handled, as the debt was reaching new heights. Modernisation of the country would be stepped up further, in continuation of the previous government’s initiatives. The parties agreed on a draft regarding domestic policies, while foreign policy was postponed to a next meeting.
Walenstadt and Trump during the coalition talks in 1997.
Foreign policy had the possibility of being a nail in the coffin of Walenstadt and Trump’s idea for a quadruple coalition. While the SDP, VP and CD.P all considered themselves as pro-Western, the Erneuerungspartei still adhered to their pro-Russian views. Trump could agree that further regional cooperation with Prussia’s neighbours and most notably the Visegrad Group could be beneficial, but could not agree with a Prussian entry into the EU during this government’s term. While he recognised the other parties’ concern for cooperation with a national populist dictatorship like Russia, Trump also raised the possibility of an agreement with Russia to democratize some of its institutions. While Prussia might not hold a big stick to wave at the Russians, the country could be the lifeline the Russians needed to sustain themselves and open trade to the West. A final draft was made and all parties agreed that matters of foreign policy would always be handled through unanimity to not jeopardize the coalition. One month and a half after the elections On February 17, Walenstadt was once again sworn in as Chancellor of Prussia and a centrist majority consisting of 184 seats in the Landtag came into power.
Josef Tusk giving a press conference on the SDP-EP-CD.P-VP coalition.
The 2nd Walenstadt Cabinet:
1. Chancellor: Ludwig Walenstadt (SDP)
2. Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Internal Affairs: Donald Trump (EP)
3. Minister of Foreign Affairs: Heinrich August Winkler (SDP)
4. Minister of Economy and Finances: Hermann Flach Jr. (EP)
5. Minister of Defence: Hinrich Lehmann-Grube (SDP)
6. Minister of Justice: Ignatz Bubis (EP)
7. Minister of Education and Science: Wolfgang Thierse (SDP)
8. Minister of Health, Labour and Social Affairs: Herbert Hupka (SDP)
9. Minister of Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry: Josef Tusk (CD.P)
10. Minister of Transport and Communications: Jan Olbrycht (CD.P)
11. Minister of Energy and Environment: Barbara Blida (VP)
With the question of the new government coalition solved, another question soon arose. Now that the seats in the Landtag had been reshuffled, the question of Birt’s presidency was raised. His tasks to appoint a formateur had become obsolete now that the 2nd Walenstadt Cabinet had been formed and several parties had asked to vote on Birt’s future as President. The Junkerpartei wanted to oust him because they failed to form a government and saw their partner, the EP, betray them for a coalition with the Social Democrats. The Syndicalists, on the other hand, wished to oust President Birt because they didn’t believe in Prussia’s ceremonial presidency and wished to see a more active President in office. The Syndicalists failed to provide an alternative candidate, but the Junkers on the other hand made the wild proposal of giving the presidency to Georg Friedrich von Hohenzollern. Facing the choice between Birt and a Hohenzollern, the incumbent President easily managed to gain enough support for a renewed term as President of Prussia.