The Greek Army's military academy normally took in about 100 students each year. In 1937 it took in 300 so that in 1940 there would be ample junior officers to properly command a mobilized army. Those were assigned to their units in September 1940, a month before Italy invaded Greece. A line of forts across the border with Bulgaria had also been in construction since 1936 and was well along by 1940. Unfortunately that line wasn't expanded along the border with Yugoslavia, since it was not expected to be a hostile nation, and that's where the Germans got through.
Interesting
An interesting analogy, but I think not quite precise. If the Kurds, after having been abandoned by the Americans, instead allied with ISIS and took part in their crimes against civilization in the hope that they would gain the territory in Turkey populated by a Kurdish majority I believe that might be more like what Antonescu did. And I don't think the rest of the world would be as sympathetic to the Kurds then as it is now.
Good point. But what would you have done in Romania's situation? If it weren't for the German protection, the Russians would have taken a lot more from Romania.
And an alliance with the Soviet Union would be impossible because of this very reason (there's a focus tree in Hoi4, but in real-life the Russians would have never accepted), not to mention that nobody knew the Soivet Union would eventually join the Allies, it was an alliance of convenience anyway, the Russians were the bad guys as much as the Nazi.
Staying neutral? That's free land for both Germany and Russia. Unlike Finland that has the environment in its own advantage, the Russian and the German troops could have steamrolled Romania in not time, making it a 2nd Poland.
From my knowledge, the Soviets wanted to take as much from Romania as they could, if it wasn't for the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact they would have claimed all of Moldavia. Even with the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact the Soviets pushed every boundry they could, the original deal with Germany was that the Sovet Union only takes Bessarabia, but the Sovet Union requested at the last minute to all take Bukovina as well, Nazi Germany was surprised by this request and eventually agreed that the Soviet Union only takes a small piece of Bukovina. But the Soviet Union didn't stop there and kept advancing, the Romanian army was in shock and didn't know what to do so they continued retreating, when the Romanian government saw that the Russian army didn't stop at the agreed borders they had a conference.
Before the conference was over, on the frontline, Major Valeriu Crap gave the following order "From here we do not retreat anymore! They shall not pass over Putna! Go to your units, organize defensive positions and if the Russians make one step forward, on my order and at my own risk open fire!". The Russian advanced, Major Valeriu Crap's battalion started shooting and the situation was about to escalate, both Nazi Germany and the Allies were angry at the Soviet Union for this advance and Stalin was forced to back down and give up his further push in Romania in order to avoid interantional outrage. However, with this trick form a small piece of Bukovina the Soviet Union ended up with half of Bukovina. After Romania switched sides in 1944, Major Valeriu Carp was declared a war criminal by the Soviet Union.
After the Soviet Union took Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina they requested Germany to be allowed to take Southern Bukovina as well, but it was refused. Then the Soviets occupied the Snake Island in the Black Sea.
There was no Soviet offer help and guarantee to Romania as far as I know, and given the events previously described, that seems very unlikely.
The facts later would have been different had the Soviets not taken Bessarabia and Northern Bukvoina. The reason Romania joined the Axis and entered World War II was to recover Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina from the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union wouldn't have taken Bessarabia and Northern Bukvoina Romania would have had no reason to join the war. Ion Antonescu's advance in Transnistria was very unpopular in Romania and even then it was made in hopes that Nazi Germany would reward Romania with Northern Transylvania for their contribution to the eastern front. If the Soviets would not taken Bessarabia and Northern Bukvoina, there would be no coup against Carol II, and most likely Romania would have stayed neutral or joined the Allies to take back Northern Transylvania in 1944.
The only silver lining I can see from Romania is pulling of a miracle like Sweden. German soldiers traveling on leave between Norway and Germany were allowed passage through Sweden. And Iron ore was sold to Germany throughout the war. Romania could have allowed Germany/Russia to move their trooops and sell Oil to Germany/Russia. The problems with this were:
- Russian didn't need Oil.
- Russia wanted to annex big parts of Romania, accepting Romania's neutrality would have been unlikely.
- Germany consided Sweds Aryans, equals to them, Romanians were held to be somewhat inferior, but were tolerated.
- Nations already part of the Tripartite Pact, Hungary and Bulgaria requested territories from Romania.
- Sweden wasn't in a strategically important location for the German-Soviet front.
Ironically, I think the best course of action for Romania's survival would have been to join the Tripartite Pact earlier. As a neutral country, its stance in the war was uncertain and it was better to give that territory to Hungary and Bulgaria that were already part of the Axis. If Romania would have joined the Axis previously, giving that territory away would have been problematic as Romania was already an Axis member and had more manpower than both Hungary and Bulgaria. Germany would have also been more reluctant to give parts of Romania to the Soviet Union. I think Bessarabia would still be given away, but not Northern Bukovina as it wasn't part of the deal in the Ribbertrop-Molotov Pact.
There is a recording from Finland 1942 at the birthday party of Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim when Hitler speaks in private, his voice is calm, unlike in his public speeches, he also talks about Romania. Context should also be taken into account, he was talking to Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim, thus he needed to justify not helping Finland somehow. In that recording, Hitler mentions that he agreed to give up the Baltics and parts of Finland to the Soviet Union so that the Soviet Union won't try to take the Romanian Oil. Until Romania joined the Axis, Hitler was uncertain whether Russia would attack Romania or not.
Adolf Hitler: "Already in the autumn of 1940 there was constantly this question for us: should we risk a break from the USSR? I advised the Finnish government to negociate and to make time to learn how to deal with problems in a different way, because I always had a fear: that Russia would attack Romania in late autumn and occupy oil sources, and we would not have finished preparations until the end of autumn 1940. If Russia would have occupied the Romanian oil sources, Germany would have been lost.
With 60 Russian divisions this could have been aranged, at that time we had no intervention force in Romania, the Romanian government called ous only recently and what we have desplaced there would have been really ridiculous. They should have just occupied the oil soruces. I could no longer start a war, in September of October, with our armament, it was really impossible, we did not in any way prepare for the deployment of our troops in the east, the units had to be consolidated first in the west, the armament had to be consolidated. To be brought in order, because, of course, we also made sacrificed during the Western Campaign. It would have been impossible to align before the spring of 1941 and if now the Russians, in the autumn of 1940, had occupied Romania and annexed the oil sources, then we would have been helpless in 1941.
I had a good German production, but the quantity of fuel that only the Air Force consumes, the quanity that our tank divisions consume is a monstrous thing. It's a consumption that goes beyond imagination. And without the influx of 5 million tons of Romanian oil we could not have dared to start the war. And this worried me a lot, as a consequence, I tried to solve this problem through negociations, until we were strong enough to oppose the exorbitant demands of USSR in 1939 and 1940, the demands were truly exorbitant, they were exorbitant, the Russians knew that we were helpless, in the west, they could squeeze everything from us, and only after the visit of Molotov, then we declared mercilessly that we could not accepted the demands, these many demands, basically the negociations were barely over.
There were 4 points, the only points regarding Finland was giving them the liberty to protect themselves from a Finnish threat. I said - Don't you want to tell me that Finland is threatening you? - He said - Well, in Finland anyone could act against the friends of the Soviet Union, this would be an alliance, the USSR will not be continuously stressed and a Great Power could never accept being threatened by a small state in terms of its existence. - I said - You, your existance, is not threatend by Finland, isn't it? Aren't you trying to tell me that your existance is threated by Finland? - in the background someone said - Ridiculous!"
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