1940. If the alternative occurs - Germany wins the Battle of Britain and occupies the British Isles during operation Sea Lion. How would the US intervention happen in the European theater in the WWII, or would it happen at all?
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A hard one to decide.
I would presume that the liberation of the british isles would be the start of any hypothetical campaign then.
You could also argument that it wouldnt happen at all.
Chances would be much less for a successful invasion since the starting point would be the american mainland.
Alternativly Iceland maybe? Hard to imagine the logistics behind it.
The only advantage for the US would be the non existent german surface navy compared to the US.
I would presume that the liberation of the british isles would be the start of any hypothetical campaign then.
You could also argument that it wouldnt happen at all.
Chances would be much less for a successful invasion since the starting point would be the american mainland.
Alternativly Iceland maybe? Hard to imagine the logistics behind it.
The only advantage for the US would be the non existent german surface navy compared to the US.
What is the political framework? I mean successful invasion, the British government (alongside the French, Dutch, etc) signs the Treaty of Potsdam. The war is over and everyone goes home.
as above, if Britain has fallen in 1940 there is no war. Maybe sections of the government go all "free france" mode, but would that last the U.S. intervention? Would the U.S. even intervene?
Really though my biggest qualm isn't with Hitler winning the Battle of Britain, it's with him ever landing on troops on it
Really though my biggest qualm isn't with Hitler winning the Battle of Britain, it's with him ever landing on troops on it
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Thanks for sharing your views and opinions. So far I consider every reply as potential alternatives. Still, I think that the German-Soviet war and the Eastern-Front would had happened in the European theater even while the UK was knocked-out.
Roosevelt always believed that if the Soviets are defeated, the Allies would be far more likely to lose the entire war. Roosevelt concluded that the Soviet Union needed to be helped by the US.
While Britain fallen, but the Soviets still standing there would be a chance to defeat Germany. It's possible that the US entry to the European theater would had happened across the Atlantic and the Arctic, unloading at the Arctic Soviet ports or then via the Pacific route/Siberian track to the European USSR and fight alongside the Soviets against Germany.
Roosevelt always believed that if the Soviets are defeated, the Allies would be far more likely to lose the entire war. Roosevelt concluded that the Soviet Union needed to be helped by the US.
While Britain fallen, but the Soviets still standing there would be a chance to defeat Germany. It's possible that the US entry to the European theater would had happened across the Atlantic and the Arctic, unloading at the Arctic Soviet ports or then via the Pacific route/Siberian track to the European USSR and fight alongside the Soviets against Germany.
The big question is, what did Britain and Germany do to make Sea Lion a reality?
Because there are big variances there.
Say Germany wins the BoB and then spends a few years pounding Southern England before being done building up and invading. This results in a vastly different subsequent case than Germany wins the BoB, deposits 12 men (or 1200, or even 12000) in Portsmouth harbour, and Britain panics.
Because there are big variances there.
Say Germany wins the BoB and then spends a few years pounding Southern England before being done building up and invading. This results in a vastly different subsequent case than Germany wins the BoB, deposits 12 men (or 1200, or even 12000) in Portsmouth harbour, and Britain panics.
I am fairly doubtful Germany winning the air war would have resulted in a successful Sealion, but assuming it does, there are several variables:
Does this result in an actual peace, or does England continue the fight from her dominions and colonies beyond the seas?
Does the US get involved, sending lend-lease to Russia and eventually joining the war?
If there is actual peace, but the US still gets involved, will parts of the British Empire re-enter the war, similar to what happened with Vichy-Free France?
The perfect scenario for Germany would be one where the entire British Empire accepts peace and the US doesn't get involved, not even lend-leasing Russia. Without US LL, the Russian economy and war effort collapse circa 1942-43 and Germany wins the war.
Does this result in an actual peace, or does England continue the fight from her dominions and colonies beyond the seas?
Does the US get involved, sending lend-lease to Russia and eventually joining the war?
If there is actual peace, but the US still gets involved, will parts of the British Empire re-enter the war, similar to what happened with Vichy-Free France?
The perfect scenario for Germany would be one where the entire British Empire accepts peace and the US doesn't get involved, not even lend-leasing Russia. Without US LL, the Russian economy and war effort collapse circa 1942-43 and Germany wins the war.
Well, I pretty much left it for the viewers of this thread to decide what would follow if Sealion is successful for the Germans, but I can give my evaluation about this:
- It's highly like that the US will enter the European war in case of German invasion to the Soviet Union.
- Please, correct me if I'm wrong...except for the Soviet states (the Baltic States, Belorussia, Ukraine, etc.) most of the German occupied European nations during the WWII - their governments went exile and joined the Allies (if not already done that) and carried on fighting. If the UK falls, I assume the British government would do the same.
- Your last note is a Jackpot for Germany and Game Over for the Allies and the Comintern
The Luftwaffe achieving air superiority over Southern England would simply be that - air superiority. Any sucessful invasion of the British Isles around 1940 would've remained at best impractical or at worst impossible without effectively neutralizing the Royal Navy - the Home Fleet in particular. The Kriegsmarine, let alone the Luftwaffe was in no shape or form close-to-ready to dealing with the Royal Navy in an amphibious invasion operation. Even if, I should add, it was able to wholly & sucessfully secure and make full use of the French, Dutch & Belgian surface fleets.
The fact that they previously managed to successfully pull off such an invasion in the Norwegian Campaign owes much to both German surprise, speed & luck rather (surprise being a non-existent element in the event Operation Sealion was actually proceeded upon) than just operational & tactical superiority. Yet even then, the Kriegsmarine suffered quite heavy losses; particularly with its comparatively tiny surface fleet. Losses which frankly were irrevocable & irreplaceable - particularly from Germany's then extant resource situation and from its shipbuilding capacity.
The best Germany could've achieved was either:
That said, if Britain were forced out off the war. Then the U.S. would simply have no "unsinkable aircraft carrier" with which to liberate Western Europe. In other words, nowhere-to-land.
When it comes to the European theatre, a common yet curt refrain I like to state is:
"If just one of the Big 3 either avoided or chose not to join the war. The future of post-war Europe would have been fascist."
The fact that they previously managed to successfully pull off such an invasion in the Norwegian Campaign owes much to both German surprise, speed & luck rather (surprise being a non-existent element in the event Operation Sealion was actually proceeded upon) than just operational & tactical superiority. Yet even then, the Kriegsmarine suffered quite heavy losses; particularly with its comparatively tiny surface fleet. Losses which frankly were irrevocable & irreplaceable - particularly from Germany's then extant resource situation and from its shipbuilding capacity.
The best Germany could've achieved was either:
- Apply enough pressure on Britain to force it into making peace with the Axis, by at least recognizing German dominance of the European Continent - something which precipitated the War Cabinet Crisis of May 1940 between Churchill & Lord Halifax (as well as being an aim which the Nazi leadership actively and expectantly strove for before & after conquering France).
- Placate and/or prevent the United States from providing Britain any aid whatsoever - material, financial &/or otherwise - thus crippling the UK's ability to sustainably wage war against the Axis and further force it into pursuing the point above.
That said, if Britain were forced out off the war. Then the U.S. would simply have no "unsinkable aircraft carrier" with which to liberate Western Europe. In other words, nowhere-to-land.
When it comes to the European theatre, a common yet curt refrain I like to state is:
"If just one of the Big 3 either avoided or chose not to join the war. The future of post-war Europe would have been fascist."
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Because they had somewhere to run to. Also it's worth noting that France did not do this, instead opting to exit the war altogether (minus a select few colonies which only kept fighting because Britain kept fighting).
A negotiated peace between England and Germany was already on the table in OTL, and I could easily see something like that happening if England were defeated on her own island (implausible, but since that's what you originally asked about). Heck, perhaps even the capture of the BEF could have, if not brought Britain to the negotiating table, at least come very close to doing so.
In any case, with the French defeated, the Americans still being isolationist, and the Russians collaborating with Germany, I doubt England in 1940 would have chosen to continue the war from overseas, but of course we'll never know for sure.
I'm pretty sure that the Churchill's cabinet would have been accepted by the US and with a safe haven the British government could have been able to work exile in the US. Other option is the British government working exile in the British India.
But Free France government-in-exile was set up in London and led by Charles de Gaulle.
In 1940? I doubt it. As for "retreat to India", it's far likelier the British political establishment would have simply thrown Churchill out of of power and sought peace with Germany, had Germany conducted a successful Sealion. IRL during the War Cabinet Crisis this was a real threat, as Chamberlain was still leader of the Conservative Party, not Churchill.
Which had little legitimacy even in the eyes of the Allies until considerably later in the war. The Vichy regime was the lawful government, and the Allies only really turned to de Gaulle once a sizable portion of French holdings had been retaken, and when it became clear the Vichy regime would not rejoin the Allies. In fact, still in 1945 the Allies treated France as somewhat of a traitor nation, only reluctantly giving the French a seat in the table of the victors, and an occupation zone in Germany.
Well, the US had already gave asylums for German engineers and scientist - why not for the Churchill's cabinet also. Furthermore, Tizard Mission already was a co-operation and sharing technologies between the US and the UK in September 1940.
Yes, the Vichy regime was responsible of the civil administration and the authoritarian government, but it does not change the fact that the French also had a government-in-exile.
A few scientists and military men going on a state-sponsored trip or even moving to the US is one thing, housing the government-in-exile of a major belligerent in a war you're not a part of, especially when most of your people are against having anything to do with that war, is another matter entirely.
Indeed, and it was insignificant at the time. Ergo, France capitulated and did not continue the fight, even if a collection of Frenchmen in London and a few remote colonies scattered around the world pretended otherwise.
British don't really need to relocate to US, as Canada is an existing nation right next to it...
If Germany is able to conquer Britain than there is no way the belligerent British cabinet would escape. That would be top priority for the blockading fleet of submarines and Abwehr in country. American invasion of Europe depends on how much of the Home Fleet was successfully captured. Germany would rather have an armistice and vassalization agreement rather than occupying France and Britain. With a major fleet the entire paradigm would have changed.
Interesting, but unanswerable. There are simply way too many variables in this equation.
IF - Huge IF - IF Germany occupies Britain / Britain capitulates / Edward VIII returns to the throne with Wallis Simpson at his side. Spain rolls over and joins the Axis powers. Sweden possibly as well. Germany holds the Suez Canal. And how long does all this take? What does the world look like in 1942? Does Hitler attack Russia in '42 or '43 - fully armed and supplied with an industrialized Europe feeding the Krupp's steel mills.
SOE and 'Former Naval Person' relationship will not develop and Karl Haushofer's Ausland Organization would obtain a much stronger foothold within America. The country COULD vote Roosevelt out of office and a power sympathetic to Hitler, backed by someone like those those who think like Henry Ford (Hitler has a signed picture of Ford on his desk, and an autographed copy of Ford's "The International Jew" nearby), would come into power.
IF Hitler takes Britain, the world undergoes a sea change and Europe would be plunged into a decades long Night.
Thank God for Churchill, thank God for R.J. Mitchell, thank God for Arthur Rowledge and the Rolls Royce PV-12 'Merlin' engine, and thank God for all those brave actors flying those Spitfires under the command of Michael Caine's voice who won the Battle of Britian. Truly, never have so many owed so much to so few.
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It is strange that you forgot those great men at the American financial institutions even though you mentioned that never ever owed so much to so few
