If the UK loses the Battle of Britain where would the US concentrate its troops?

[hkrommel]

I'm saying that we're in fantasy land from the beginning so if you want to restrict everything by arguing that "the Luftwaffe couldn't do that, it was too limited" (and I think you are exaggerating this anyway) then accept that it's all absurd and none of this would ever happen. I think if we are going to discuss this we have to assume a better Luftwaffe because of some advances in technology or some different priorities given to the Luftwaffe.

I'm simply assuming the default position, which is that the Luftwaffe is in somewhat historical shape. If you wish to claim differently, the burden of proof is on you.

As I said before you seem to not understand the difference between a war game and real people's lives. In the real world ever since WWI countries have been very reluctant to send conscripts off to war. This is not something "I need to prove". It is something that every reasonable person accepts. A plan this risky might be a fun thing to try our if you are playing HOI but that's just a game and not reality.

It actually is something you need to prove. The default position again is that the US went to war. You need to give a complete argument as to why Britain being knocked out (but not surrendering) would keep the US out of the war in Europe. Others have provided arguments for why the US would still get involved, so the burden is on you to respond to those and construct your own argument showing why the US would not get involved.

Sorry, I should have been more specific. I was referring to these magical US bombers that somehow suppress the Luftwaffe into inactivity, while having to fly 400 km operation range at least.

The B-17 had a range of 3,219km with a 2,700kg bomb load. Reykjavik to Edinburgh is 1,359km, so no problem there.

Now, German ability to intercept these planes has two problems.
1. German interception abilities were rather lacking until 1943. They didn't have good ways of attacking bomber box formations and the performance of their fighters at higher altitudes was lacking. By 1943 you have P-51 Mustangs.
2. They're going to mostly be flying over ocean, so interception efforts need to come from the same airfields that are apparently hosting hundreds of German bombers. That means you need more fighters there, which take up space, fuel, munitions, pilots, ground crews, etc. That means less space for those bombers.

As for escorts, you had the P-47 (1,300km combat range), P-38 (2,100km combat range) and, assuming historical development, in 1942 the P-51 (2,656km combat range). More than enough for these purposes, especially since the P-47s could be based closer on the Faroes, Shetlands, or Orkneys. You also have carrier-based fighters involved.

The minor U-boat activity and its weak influence for the operation Torch is tied into few important facts.

• The British Isles were the area were most of the Allied assault convoys made their departure for the North African coast and for the operation Torch - as well so did the principal of the Allied escort ships - if the British Isles would be in German hands (like the original post suggests) this wouldn't had been possible, but the US invasion force and the ports for departure would had been somewhere on the US East Coast making the sea voyage much more longer and the convoys would had been much more vulnerable for the hunting U-boats due to the limited range of the Allied escort vessels
• The Kriegsmarine's most important U-boat bases for the Battle of Atlantic were located at the French west coast - at the Bay of Biscay - and the U-boats had to cross this bay to reach the Atlantic only by submerged almost throughout the whole way and near the north-western coast of Spain to avoid the Allied air patrols launched from the southern England airfields or the aircraft carriers. During the operation Torch the Allies were very well aware of this and in order to escort and protect the invasion force properly they put the most of their escort vessel to sail on the Bay of Biscay side while the convoys and troopships sailed on the Atlantic side. Neither this wouldn't had been possible if the Allies did lose the British Isles
• Gibraltar was a bastion of British sea power and supported by the RAF - effectively preventing the U-boat activity in the narrow passage of the Gibraltar Strait blocking U-boats entering and exiting Atlantic-Mediterranean-Atlantic or Mediterranean-Atlantic-Mediterranean. If the British Isles were gone, it would be hard for the Englishmen to keep Gibraltar supplied and the sea bastion would probably fall as well giving more operating possibilities for the German U-boats, but also for Italian submarines

The entire Western force came from the US directly and had no U-boat trouble. You're seriously overestimating the U-boat threat when it was countered by:
1. Sufficient escorts, which the US had plenty of
2. Misdirection. Historically during Torch, Husky, and other operations the Allies "leaked" intelligence of various convoys far from the transit area, which caused the U-boats to go chasing ghost convoys all over the place.

While U-boats were good against shipping until the mid to late war, that was because the British and Americans took too long to adopt convoy formations. Once they did, losses to U-boats dropped and losses of U-boats rose. Once you get into the late war U-boat losses were horrendous even attacking convoys. They'd take a cargo ship or two with them, but they were often lost themselves.

 

[Jopa79]

The entire Western force came from the US directly

No, it didn't. The operation Torch contained 350 warships and 500 transport ships. The Western Task Force came from the US with 38 ships and 56 escorts. The rest (the Central Task Force and the Eastern Task Force) came from the British Isles.

Edit: Wait, by entire Western force you probably are talking the same thing which I mean by using the Western Task Force...then I agree. But, still they had no trouble 'cause the British Isles were in Allied hands and the Kriegsmarine was sealed at the Bay of Biscay.

 

[hkrommel]

The Western Task Force came from the US with 38 ships and 56 escorts.

The entire Western force

Wait, by entire Western force you probably are talking the same thing which I mean by using the Western Task Force...then I agree

You got it.

But, still they had no trouble 'cause the British Isles were in Allied hands and the Kriegsmarine was sealed at the Bay of Biscay.

There were still U-boats out and about, they just misdirected them with convoys that didn't exist.

Edit: Still, don't overestimate U-boats. Only 10% of transatlantic convoys were attacked at all, and of those attacked about 10% of ships were lost, on average. More than 99% of all ships sailing to and from the UK did so successfully. In a single year the Allies transported 3 million troops across the Atlantic without serious loss.

 

[Jopa79]

There were still U-boats out and about, they just misdirected them with convoys that didn't exist.

Yes, there were 28 German and Italian submarines in combined operating, but much more would had been if Bay of Biscay was a free entering point for the U-boats for the Atlantic and if Gibraltar wasn't British anymore.

Edit: Still, don't overestimate U-boats. Only 10% of transatlantic convoys were attacked at all, and of those attacked about 10% of ships were lost, on average. More than 99% of all ships sailing to and from the UK did so successfully. In a single year the Allies transported 3 million troops across the Atlantic without serious loss.

Still, the original post suggested that Britain was knocked out and if so, the convoy loss percentage would had been much more higher. The British were the first to use the convoy tactics, the US Navy was lacking of destroyers in the Battle of Atlantic initial phase and largely for this reason the Second Happy Times occurred for the U-boats in the American waters and in the Caribbean Sea while the German submarines sank in huge numbers unprotected American oil tankers sailing alone. If the UK have exited the war, the Americans adapting the convoy tactics would have taken much more of time...and if the British are out of the war in mid-1940, they even didn't have the convoy tactics operating. The US should figure out the utility of this doctrine by themselves and build their own Atlantic escorts - historically they received the first 50-60 escorts for convoy tactics from the Royal Navy.

 

[hkrommel]

If the UK have exited the war, the Americans adapting the convoy tactics would have taken much more of time

It's not exactly rocket science and the Americans are perfectly capable of innovating on their own. It's rather absurd to assume that the Germans perform impossibly better than reality yet the Americans are unable to conceive of convoy tactics by the historical timeframe.

The US should figure out the utility of this doctrine by themselves and build their own Atlantic escorts - historically they received the first 50-60 escorts for convoy tactics from the Royal Navy.

After selling tons of escorts to the British.

 

[Jopa79]

After selling tons of escorts to the British

And when the UK surrenders, tons of escorts fall in German hands or the British sunk their fleet, either way, the US is still without escorts for the Battle of Atlantic and it takes time to build the US Atlantic fleet.

 

[hkrommel]

And when the UK surrenders, tons of escorts fall in German hands or the British sunk their fleet, either way, the US is still without escorts for the Battle of Atlantic and it takes time to build the US Atlantic fleet.

1. Why in the world would the Germans be able to capture those ships? Why in the world would the British scuttle them and not just sail to Canada, Egypt, or elsewhere? Captured ships were an anomaly historically and unless the British surrender entirely there's no way they scuttle their fleets.
2. The US Atlantic Fleet already existed and was quite large. In addition to its active ships, the US had tons of destroyers mothballed (the Wickes, Caldwell, and Clemson classes) that historically were converted to DDEs rather easily.

Edit: To show you what I mean about captured ships I will list them below. I will not include ships below the DDE class (minesweepers, sloops, gunboats, and other such ships), and I will also not include ships that had been hulked and turned into things like AA platforms, barracks ships, or supply depots. Those aren't warships anymore.

Germany captured:
1. HMDS Neils Juel, a 1918 monitor used as a training ship captured from Denmark.
2. The Astree, an Aurore-class French submarine that was incomplete and captured in drydock. It was never completed by the Germans.
3. The Favorite, another Aurore-class captured and used as a training vessel.
4. The Jean de Vienne, a La Galissonniere class French cruiser which was severely damaged in drydock in Toulon. The Italians and Germans were unable to repair her.
5. The Panthere, a destroyer and one of the few French ships to be captured intact at Toulon, it had been gutted for refit and instead of completing the refit, the Germans gave it to the Italians who used it as a transport.
6. The Tigre, a Chacal-class (1924) destroyer undergoing refit in Toulon when the Germans captured it. The Italians began repairs but could not complete them.
7. The Africaine, a French submarine captured while under construction and never completed.
8. The Vasilefs Georgios, a Greek destroyer captured and used as a convoy escort.
9. The HNLMS De Zeven Provincien, a Dutch cruiser captured just after the hull was laid down with very little construction completed. It sat in drydock the entire war.
10. The HNLMS Gerard Callenburgh, a Dutch destroyer scuttled and raised by the Germans and used as an escort.
11. The HNLMS O 8, a Dutch submarine that was scuttled because of its age. The Germans raised her and used her as a training ship before scrapping her themselves.
12. The HNLMS O 12, a Dutch submarine scuttled and raised, used as a training ship.
13. The HNLMS O 25, a Dutch submarine scuttled and raised, one of the few actually used as a combat ship, though with limited success.
14. HNLMS O 26, captured while under construction and used as a training boat
15. The HNLMS O 27, captured under construction and used primarily as a training boat
16. The HNLMS Gerard Callenburgh, a Dutch destroyer scuttled, raised, and turned into an escort.
17. The HNoMS Gyller, one of the few vessels captured intact, it was a Norwegian destroyer used to escort German shipping.
18. The HNoMS Odin, same as the Gyller except it primarily served as a training ship and torpedo recovery vessel.
19. The HNoMS Tor, a Norwegian destroyer scuttled and raised, the Germans used it as a training and escort vessel

So with this grand total of 19 ships captured by the Germans, 15 were actually used in some capacity. Of those, 8 were used in a combat role in some capacity. Of those, 5 were primarily used in a combat role. 4 of those were destroyers used as escorts.

 

[Jopa79]

1. Why in the world would the Germans be able to capture those ships? Why in the world would the British scuttle them and not just sail to Canada, Egypt, or elsewhere

The German Navy was independently scuttled at the North Sea after German defeat in WWI. The French scuttled their Mediterranean fleet at least partly during WW2. Why wouldn’t the British do the same after defeated by the Germans?

Operational range limiting British escorts from sailing to friendly ports. Mediterranean closed while the Germans or the Italians occupy Gibraltar and the Gibraltar Strait.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Edit: Still, don't overestimate U-boats. Only 10% of transatlantic convoys were attacked at all, and of those attacked about 10% of ships were lost, on average. More than 99% of all ships sailing to and from the UK did so successfully. In a single year the Allies transported 3 million troops across the Atlantic without serious loss.

I simply do not believe this line of statistics. You are playing fast and loose with the rules on this one and obviously are including - or inventing - statistics after Black May, which skews the entire profile and does not tell the entire story.

Before May of '43, the Uboat menace was ferocious. Churchill feared the UK would have to cease hostilities - his words, not mine - based on the German blockade up to that point. There is no reason to believe using England as a forward submarine base, handing the land based air assets to Germany on the Eastern ends of the convoy runs, will get you anything remotely similar to the same chain of events happening in the North Atlantic. Or that the Submarine - ASW technical war would progress in remotely the same fashion without the Red Duster's experiences to lead the way.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

The German Navy was independently scuttled at the North Sea after German defeat in WWI. The French scuttled their Mediterranean fleet at least partly during WW2. Why wouldn’t the British do the same after defeated by the Germans?

Operational range limiting British escorts from sailing to friendly ports. Mediterranean closed while the Germans or the Italians occupy Gibraltar and the Gibraltar Strait.

The UK fleet would move to Canada and the Carribean, it would not be scuttled except for ships that were too badly damaged or were too obsolete to bother repositioning.

Assuming that which never happened might have happened because that is what we are doing, I guess.

 

[Jopa79]

The UK fleet would move to Canada and the Carribean, it would not be scuttled except for ships that were too badly damaged or were too obsolete to bother repositioning.

As Canada is a neutral country in 1940 will they allow the fleeing Royal Navy in their ports? Or still English provinces in Canadian east coast or in the Carribbean during the 1940’s?

 

[hkrommel]

The German Navy was independently scuttled at the North Sea after German defeat in WWI. The French scuttled their Mediterranean fleet at least partly during WW2. Why wouldn’t the British do the same after defeated by the Germans?

Because Germany fully surrendered. The French were torn between following Vichy orders and sailing off. The British would not have these issues.

As Canada is a neutral country in 1940 will they allow the fleeing Royal Navy in their ports? Or still English provinces in Canadian east coast or in the Carribbean during the 1940’s?

Why do you think Canada is neutral? Did the Sealion alien space bats perform a mind wipe as well?

I simply do not believe this line of statistics. You are playing fast and loose with the rules on this one and obviously are including - or inventing - statistics after Black May, which skews the entire profile and does not tell the entire story.

Before May of '43, the Uboat menace was ferocious. Churchill feared the UK would have to cease hostilities - his words, not mine - based on the German blockade up to that point. There is no reason to believe using England as a forward submarine base, handing the land based air assets to Germany on the Eastern ends of the convoy runs, will get you anything remotely similar to the same chain of events happening in the North Atlantic. Or that the Submarine - ASW technical war would progress in remotely the same fashion without the Red Duster's experiences to lead the way.

I'm just repeating what historians have found. You can do your own research on the matter but the U-boat threat was much overblown compared to the reality of the situation.

 

[Jopa79]

Why do you think Canada is neutral?

Sorry...my bad...they actually entered already in 1939.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

1. Why in the world would the Germans be able to capture those ships? Why in the world would the British scuttle them and not just sail to Canada, Egypt, or elsewhere? Captured ships were an anomaly historically and unless the British surrender entirely there's no way they scuttle their fleets.
2. The US Atlantic Fleet already existed and was quite large. In addition to its active ships, the US had tons of destroyers mothballed (the Wickes, Caldwell, and Clemson classes) that historically were converted to DDEs rather easily.

Edit: To show you what I mean about captured ships I will list them below. I will not include ships below the DDE class (minesweepers, sloops, gunboats, and other such ships), and I will also not include ships that had been hulked and turned into things like AA platforms, barracks ships, or supply depots. Those aren't warships anymore.

Germany captured:
1. HMDS Neils Juel, a 1918 monitor used as a training ship captured from Denmark.
2. The Astree, an Aurore-class French submarine that was incomplete and captured in drydock. It was never completed by the Germans.
3. The Favorite, another Aurore-class captured and used as a training vessel.
4. The Jean de Vienne, a La Galissonniere class French cruiser which was severely damaged in drydock in Toulon. The Italians and Germans were unable to repair her.
5. The Panthere, a destroyer and one of the few French ships to be captured intact at Toulon, it had been gutted for refit and instead of completing the refit, the Germans gave it to the Italians who used it as a transport.
6. The Tigre, a Chacal-class (1924) destroyer undergoing refit in Toulon when the Germans captured it. The Italians began repairs but could not complete them.
7. The Africaine, a French submarine captured while under construction and never completed.
8. The Vasilefs Georgios, a Greek destroyer captured and used as a convoy escort.
9. The HNLMS De Zeven Provincien, a Dutch cruiser captured just after the hull was laid down with very little construction completed. It sat in drydock the entire war.
10. The HNLMS Gerard Callenburgh, a Dutch destroyer scuttled and raised by the Germans and used as an escort.
11. The HNLMS O 8, a Dutch submarine that was scuttled because of its age. The Germans raised her and used her as a training ship before scrapping her themselves.
12. The HNLMS O 12, a Dutch submarine scuttled and raised, used as a training ship.
13. The HNLMS O 25, a Dutch submarine scuttled and raised, one of the few actually used as a combat ship, though with limited success.
14. HNLMS O 26, captured while under construction and used as a training boat
15. The HNLMS O 27, captured under construction and used primarily as a training boat
16. The HNLMS Gerard Callenburgh, a Dutch destroyer scuttled, raised, and turned into an escort.
17. The HNoMS Gyller, one of the few vessels captured intact, it was a Norwegian destroyer used to escort German shipping.
18. The HNoMS Odin, same as the Gyller except it primarily served as a training ship and torpedo recovery vessel.
19. The HNoMS Tor, a Norwegian destroyer scuttled and raised, the Germans used it as a training and escort vessel

So with this grand total of 19 ships captured by the Germans, 15 were actually used in some capacity. Of those, 8 were used in a combat role in some capacity. Of those, 5 were primarily used in a combat role. 4 of those were destroyers used as escorts.

• TA14: (ex-Turbine, Italian Turbine-class destroyer), captured in Piraeus, September 1943. Served in the Aegean Sea and sunk by US Army Air Force in Salamis on 16 September 1944.[4][5]
• TA15: (ex-Francesco Crispi, Italian Sella-class destroyer), Captured in the Aegean in September 1943. Sunk by air raid near Heraklion on 8 March 1944. 34 men were killed.[6][7]
• TA16: (ex-Castelfidardo, Italian Curtatone-class destroyer), captured in the Aegean Sea, September 1943. Sunk at Heraklion after damage by RAF air raid[8][9]
• TA17: (ex-San Martino, Italian Palestro-class destroyer) captured in Piraeus 9 September 1943. Operated in the Aegean, Scuttled 12 October 1944 after damage in an air raid on Salamis.[9]
• TA18: (ex-Solferino, Italian Palestro-class destroyer), captured in Piraeus 9 September 1943. Operated in the Aegean, sunk by British destroyers HMS Tuscan and HMS Termagant 19 October 1944.[9]
• TA19: (ex-Calatafimi, Italian Curtatone-class destroyer), captured in the Aegean Sea, September 1943. Sunk by Greek submarine Pipinos on 9 August 1944.[9][10]
• TA20: ex-Audace, Italian Audace-class destroyer. Operated in the Adriatic. Sunk by British Hunt-class destroyers HMS Avon Vale and HMS Wheatland south of Lussino on 1 November 1944.[9][11][12]
• TA21: (ex-Insidioso, Italian Indomito-class destroyer), Sunk by aircraft torpedo in Fiume on 5 November 1944 [13][14]
• TA22: (ex-Giuseppe Missori, Italian Pilo-class destroyer), Served in the Adriatic.[14]
• TA23: (ex-Impavido, Italian Ciclone-class torpedo boat). Served on the west coast of Italy.[15]
• TA24: (ex-Arturo, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk (with TA29) in action with British destroyers HMS Meteor and HMS Lookout in the Battle of the Ligurian Sea on 18 March 1945.[15]
• TA25: (ex-Intrepido, Italian Ciclone-class torpedo boat). Served on the west coast of Italy.[15]
• TA26: (ex-Ardito, Italian Ciclone-class torpedo boat). Served on the west coast of Italy.[15]
• TA27 (ex-Auriga, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Bombed and sunk, Portoferraio on 9 September 1944.[15]
• TA28 (ex-Rigel, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Bombed and sunk Genoa on 4 September 1944.
• TA29 (ex-Eridano, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk (with TA24) in action with British destroyers in the Battle of the Ligurian Sea on 18 March 1945.[15]
• TA30 (ex-Dragone, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Torpedoed by British MTBs on 15 June 1944.[15]
• TA31: (ex-Dardo, Italian Freccia-class destroyer). Captured in Genoa. Damaged in an air raid 25 October 1944 and scuttled 24 April 1945.[5]
• TA32: Former Yugoslav destroyer Dubrovnik which was captured by the Regia Marina in 1941 and renamed Premuda. Re-built by the Germans as a radar picket destroyer armed with 105 mm guns. Commissioned 18 August 1944 and served on the west coast of Italy. Lightly damaged by British destroyers in March 1945 during the Battle of the Ligurian Sea. Scuttled in Genoa 25 April 1945.[16]
• TA33: (ex-Corsaro, ex Squadrista, Italian Soldati-class destroyer). Not completed, sunk on 4 September 1944 while running trials in Genoa.[17]
• TA34: ex-Carrista, Soldati-class destroyer. Not completed.[17]
• TA35: (ex-Giuseppe Dezza, Italian Pilo-class destroyer). Served in the Adriatic.[14]
• TA36: (ex-Stella Polare, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Mined 18 March 1944.[15]
• TA37: (ex-Gladio, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Transferred from the Adriatic to the 9th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in the Aegean in September 1943. On October 7 TA37 and the whole convoy that she was escorting were sunk by destroyers, HMS Turmagent and HMS Tuscan.[15]
• TA38 (ex-Spada, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Transferred from the Adriatic to the 9th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in the Aegean in September 1943. Lost to an air attack on 13 October 1944.[15]
• TA39 (ex-Daga, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Transferred from the Adriatic to the 9th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in the Aegean in September 1943. On 5 October 1944 TA38 and TA39 intercepted and sank HDML1227 and engaged the Hunt-class destroyers HMS Belvoir and HMS Waddon. Sank after striking a mine on 16 October 1944.[15]
• TA40: (ex-Pugnale, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). She was repaired and recommissioned and on 17 February 1945, when off Trieste was severely damaged in an air attack in February and scuttled on 4 May 1945.[15]
• TA41: (ex-Lancia, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Damaged by bombs at Trieste and was not repaired. She was wrecked in May.[15]
• TA42: (ex-Alabarda, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk at Venice to air attack on 23 January 1945.
• TA43: Former Yugoslav destroyer Beograd, which was captured by the Italians in 1941 and renamed Sibenico served in the Adriatic and scuttled in Trieste 1 May 1945.[16]
• TA44: (ex-Antonio Pigafetta), Italian Navigatori-class destroyer). Captured at Fiume, served in Adriatic. Sunk in an air raid on Trieste 17 February 1945.[5]
• TA45: (ex-Spica, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Enlisted into German service on the 8 September 1944, but it was fully equipped only on 23 November 1944 (although it participated in the combat duties even though it was not completed). TA45 sailed to her last mission on 10 April 1945 together with TA40 (Pugnale). Her duty was to escort and protect the tank carriers in the Velebit channels, at the time when the units of People's Liberation Army of Yugoslavia started to land at the island of Rab supported by British light naval forces. The torpedo boat TA45 was destroyed by the British motor torpedo boats which waited in the ambush near the cape Glavina on the isle of Krk.[15]
• TA46 (ex-Fionda, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk in an incomplete state at Fiume on 20 February 1945.[15]
• TA47 (ex-Balestra, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Damaged on the slipway and never launched. Balestra, still on the slip, survived the war. Seized by Yugoslavian forces and completed in 1949 as Ucka. She stayed in service until 1963.[15]
• TA48: (ex-T3, former Yugoslav torpedo boat in Italian service). Sunk by bombing, 20 February 1945.[18]
• TA49: (ex-Lira, Italian Spica-class torpedo boat). Destroyed in air raid at La Spezia, 4 November 1944.[19]
• (shameless copy paste)

Also out of my head a bunch of Norwegian destroyers.

 

[hkrommel]

• TA14: (ex-Turbine, Italian Turbine-class destroyer), captured in Piraeus, September 1943. Served in the Aegean Sea and sunk by US Army Air Force in Salamis on 16 September 1944.[4][5]
• TA15: (ex-Francesco Crispi, Italian Sella-class destroyer), Captured in the Aegean in September 1943. Sunk by air raid near Heraklion on 8 March 1944. 34 men were killed.[6][7]
• TA16: (ex-Castelfidardo, Italian Curtatone-class destroyer), captured in the Aegean Sea, September 1943. Sunk at Heraklion after damage by RAF air raid[8][9]
• TA17: (ex-San Martino, Italian Palestro-class destroyer) captured in Piraeus 9 September 1943. Operated in the Aegean, Scuttled 12 October 1944 after damage in an air raid on Salamis.[9]
• TA18: (ex-Solferino, Italian Palestro-class destroyer), captured in Piraeus 9 September 1943. Operated in the Aegean, sunk by British destroyers HMS Tuscan and HMS Termagant 19 October 1944.[9]
• TA19: (ex-Calatafimi, Italian Curtatone-class destroyer), captured in the Aegean Sea, September 1943. Sunk by Greek submarine Pipinos on 9 August 1944.[9][10]
• TA20: ex-Audace, Italian Audace-class destroyer. Operated in the Adriatic. Sunk by British Hunt-class destroyers HMS Avon Vale and HMS Wheatland south of Lussino on 1 November 1944.[9][11][12]
• TA21: (ex-Insidioso, Italian Indomito-class destroyer), Sunk by aircraft torpedo in Fiume on 5 November 1944 [13][14]
• TA22: (ex-Giuseppe Missori, Italian Pilo-class destroyer), Served in the Adriatic.[14]
• TA23: (ex-Impavido, Italian Ciclone-class torpedo boat). Served on the west coast of Italy.[15]
• TA24: (ex-Arturo, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk (with TA29) in action with British destroyers HMS Meteor and HMS Lookout in the Battle of the Ligurian Sea on 18 March 1945.[15]
• TA25: (ex-Intrepido, Italian Ciclone-class torpedo boat). Served on the west coast of Italy.[15]
• TA26: (ex-Ardito, Italian Ciclone-class torpedo boat). Served on the west coast of Italy.[15]
• TA27 (ex-Auriga, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Bombed and sunk, Portoferraio on 9 September 1944.[15]
• TA28 (ex-Rigel, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Bombed and sunk Genoa on 4 September 1944.
• TA29 (ex-Eridano, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk (with TA24) in action with British destroyers in the Battle of the Ligurian Sea on 18 March 1945.[15]
• TA30 (ex-Dragone, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Torpedoed by British MTBs on 15 June 1944.[15]
• TA31: (ex-Dardo, Italian Freccia-class destroyer). Captured in Genoa. Damaged in an air raid 25 October 1944 and scuttled 24 April 1945.[5]
• TA32: Former Yugoslav destroyer Dubrovnik which was captured by the Regia Marina in 1941 and renamed Premuda. Re-built by the Germans as a radar picket destroyer armed with 105 mm guns. Commissioned 18 August 1944 and served on the west coast of Italy. Lightly damaged by British destroyers in March 1945 during the Battle of the Ligurian Sea. Scuttled in Genoa 25 April 1945.[16]
• TA33: (ex-Corsaro, ex Squadrista, Italian Soldati-class destroyer). Not completed, sunk on 4 September 1944 while running trials in Genoa.[17]
• TA34: ex-Carrista, Soldati-class destroyer. Not completed.[17]
• TA35: (ex-Giuseppe Dezza, Italian Pilo-class destroyer). Served in the Adriatic.[14]
• TA36: (ex-Stella Polare, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Mined 18 March 1944.[15]
• TA37: (ex-Gladio, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Transferred from the Adriatic to the 9th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in the Aegean in September 1943. On October 7 TA37 and the whole convoy that she was escorting were sunk by destroyers, HMS Turmagent and HMS Tuscan.[15]
• TA38 (ex-Spada, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Transferred from the Adriatic to the 9th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in the Aegean in September 1943. Lost to an air attack on 13 October 1944.[15]
• TA39 (ex-Daga, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Transferred from the Adriatic to the 9th Torpedo Boat Flotilla in the Aegean in September 1943. On 5 October 1944 TA38 and TA39 intercepted and sank HDML1227 and engaged the Hunt-class destroyers HMS Belvoir and HMS Waddon. Sank after striking a mine on 16 October 1944.[15]
• TA40: (ex-Pugnale, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). She was repaired and recommissioned and on 17 February 1945, when off Trieste was severely damaged in an air attack in February and scuttled on 4 May 1945.[15]
• TA41: (ex-Lancia, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Damaged by bombs at Trieste and was not repaired. She was wrecked in May.[15]
• TA42: (ex-Alabarda, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk at Venice to air attack on 23 January 1945.
• TA43: Former Yugoslav destroyer Beograd, which was captured by the Italians in 1941 and renamed Sibenico served in the Adriatic and scuttled in Trieste 1 May 1945.[16]
• TA44: (ex-Antonio Pigafetta), Italian Navigatori-class destroyer). Captured at Fiume, served in Adriatic. Sunk in an air raid on Trieste 17 February 1945.[5]
• TA45: (ex-Spica, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Enlisted into German service on the 8 September 1944, but it was fully equipped only on 23 November 1944 (although it participated in the combat duties even though it was not completed). TA45 sailed to her last mission on 10 April 1945 together with TA40 (Pugnale). Her duty was to escort and protect the tank carriers in the Velebit channels, at the time when the units of People's Liberation Army of Yugoslavia started to land at the island of Rab supported by British light naval forces. The torpedo boat TA45 was destroyed by the British motor torpedo boats which waited in the ambush near the cape Glavina on the isle of Krk.[15]
• TA46 (ex-Fionda, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Sunk in an incomplete state at Fiume on 20 February 1945.[15]
• TA47 (ex-Balestra, Italian Ariete-class torpedo boat). Damaged on the slipway and never launched. Balestra, still on the slip, survived the war. Seized by Yugoslavian forces and completed in 1949 as Ucka. She stayed in service until 1963.[15]
• TA48: (ex-T3, former Yugoslav torpedo boat in Italian service). Sunk by bombing, 20 February 1945.[18]
• TA49: (ex-Lira, Italian Spica-class torpedo boat). Destroyed in air raid at La Spezia, 4 November 1944.[19]
• (shameless copy paste)

Also out of my head a bunch of Norwegian destroyers.

The Italian situation is so weird and dissimilar from the situation posited by OP that I don't think considering Italian ships is useful. For one, there was already significant German military presence in the country prior to Italian surrender, which in itself is extremely different than an invasion of the UK. For another, many Italians remained loyal to the Axis, so the ships under their command weren't actually "captured".

You also included various torpedo boats, gunboats, minesweepers, etc. that I'm setting aside since we're talking about DDEs and above.

As for Norway, here's an exhaustive list:
1. HNoMS Brage, an 1878 gunboat.
2. HNoMS Brand, an 1898 torpedo boat.
3. HNoMS Glommen, a 1916 minelayer.
4. HNoMS Gor, an 1884 gunboat.
5. HNoMS Gyller, a 1938 destroyer (which I included above)
6. HNoMS Harald Haarfagre, a former 1898 coastal defense ship that by 1940 was a disarmed floating hull used as a barracks ship
7. HNoMS Kjell, a 1912 gunboat
8. HNoMS Laugen, a 1918 minelayer
9. MTB 345, a 1943 torpedo boat
10. HNoMS Nor, an 1878 gunboat
11. HNoMS Odin, a 1939 destroyer (which I included above)
12. HNoMS Olav Tryggvason, a 1934 minelayer
13. HNoMS Otra, a 1939 minesweeper
14. HNoMS Pol III, a 1926 requisitioned whaling ship that served as a coastal patrol boat
15. HNoMS Rauma, a 1939 minesweeper
16. HNoMS Tor, a 1939 destroyer (which I included above)
17. HNoMS Tordenskjold, a former 1898 coastal defense ship that by 1940 was a disarmed floating hull
18. HNoMS Troll, probably the weirdest of the bunch, a 1912 destroyer that was so incredibly obsolete that its superstructure was removed and it was used as a distillation vessel and supply ship.
19. HNoMS Trygg, a 1919 torpedo boat
20. HNoMS Tyr, an 1887 gunboat
21. HNoMS Uller, an 1876 gunboat
22. HNoMS Vale, an 1874 gunboat
23. HNoMS Vidar, an 1878 gunboat

So we have:
8 ancient gunboats
3 torpedo boats, ranging from ancient to modern
3 minelayers
2 ancient floating hulls that used to be coastal defense ships but were completely disarmed in 1940
4 destroyers, 3 of which were modern and 1 so old it was useless
2 minesweepers
1 whaling ship repurposed as a coastal patrol boat

Only three of those ships are relevant to this discussion, so I only included three in my list above.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Oh I dont say you are wrong, I doubt much of the RN bar the odd ship in drydock or confused guards would fall into german hands.

 

[hkrommel]

Oh I dont say you are wrong, I doubt much of the RN bar the odd ship in drydock or confused guards would fall into german hands.

Ah, understood

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

I'm just repeating what historians have found. You can do your own research on the matter but the U-boat threat was much overblown compared to the reality of the situation.

Personally, I've studied the Battle of the Atlantic since I was a kid. I know a good deal of the small details especially regarding the Intelligence war; but also regarding the technical development of ASW and the formation of Hunter/Killer groups. I have never, ever, heard these statistics nor heard anyone suggest the U-boat threat was 1% effective. The Allies were terrified of the possibility this blockade might work, and threw everything they had at keeping the sealanes open.

ESPECIALLY prior to Black May of 1943. Before this date, and after this date, are two entirely different time periods. And if you think Luftwaffe planes, ships, and troops are sitting in England . . . which set of statistics should you use?

And to give you the benefit of the doubt, I just spent an hour cross checking Google for any shred of evidence what you said is true and I've been tracking convoys by their three digit codes. And can't find anything remotely resembling the comments you are making.

Make your case, I am listening.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

As Canada is a neutral country in 1940 will they allow the fleeing Royal Navy in their ports? Or still English provinces in Canadian east coast or in the Carribbean during the 1940’s?

Canada declared war on Germany in 1939 when Germany attacked Poland.

Operation Fish moved the entire Gold Reserve of Britian to Ottawa, and their Securities to the basement of the Sun Life building in Montreal in 1940 - Britain was very, very aware that they were not invulnerable.

Thank God for Spitfire, Chain Radar, and the British pilots who manned them.

 

[hkrommel]

Personally, I've studied the Battle of the Atlantic since I was a kid. I know a good deal of the small details especially regarding the Intelligence war; but also regarding the technical development of ASW and the formation of Hunter/Killer groups. I have never, ever, heard these statistics nor heard anyone suggest the U-boat threat was 1% effective. The Allies were terrified of the possibility this blockade might work, and threw everything they had at keeping the sealanes open.

ESPECIALLY prior to Black May of 1943. Before this date, and after this date, are two entirely different time periods. And if you think Luftwaffe planes, ships, and troops are sitting in England . . . which set of statistics should you use?

And to give you the benefit of the doubt, I just spent an hour cross checking Google for any shred of evidence what you said is true and I've been tracking convoys by their three digit codes. And can't find anything remotely resembling the comments you are making.

Make your case, I am listening.

It was both not very effective overall, and it was two different scenarios both before and after Black May. You're right that this is taking into account overall numbers (and that seems to be your biggest issue), but even early on it was never that close a thing. The fact that the Allies were worried is a purely subjective metric that does not reflect objective reality, just as the Nazis' cavalier attitudes towards the Soviet Union did not reflect objective reality. The Allies were forming opinions based on imperfect information and were affected by emotion. Looking to historians writing after the fact gets you much closer to the reality of the thing, particularly the further out you get from living memory of the historians.

So I'm really not sure what case you're asking me to make. Even assuming the Germans don't shift production elsewhere and keep up a historical number of U-boats, there still aren't going to be all that many of them in the early war. This really mitigates their effectiveness. There's also scant evidence that outside edge cases like the Barham that they pose a threat to military formations. So this idea that subs are somehow going to delete an invasion force, despite the Western Task Force historically sailing from the United States to Morocco without being detected at all is rather farfetched. That's all I'm saying.