• We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Having played as balkan states in HOI4, their best move usually is to try and annex as much of their neighbours as they can, as quickly as they can, before ww2 starts.

This works best for Hungary of course, as they get cores on everything when they become Austria Hungary. But yuguslavia or Romania are just as strong and can core the rest of the region as well with choice events and decisions.

All this being said, Yuguslavia is in a tricky situation if they don't have Germany or the entire Allies behind them. But if Hungary is removed, the Axis and the Allies both have a harder time boxing you in.
 
I love the detail you put into this, it's a delightful read. I am very curious to see how Yugoslavia pans out in the looming great conflict ahead, its hard not to imagine a conflict with it and Greece as it swings further into the axis league. Looking forward to your next update!
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
A great update! What a shame that Yugoslavia's huge push in the Olympic games ended up coming to so little.

Dispersing the industry is a good choice politically, you can't expect non Serbs to stay true to the one nation vision for long without seeing investment at home.
 
  • 1
  • 1Like
Reactions:
“For every step we take towards Berlin and Rome, we must match it with one towards London and Paris. Such is the dance that we perform for the sake of peace.” – Prince Paul
A delicate balancing act that has a limited expiry date: whether walking a tightrope or sitting on a fence, something will make you fall off eventually.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
Having played as balkan states in HOI4, their best move usually is to try and annex as much of their neighbours as they can, as quickly as they can, before ww2 starts.

This works best for Hungary of course, as they get cores on everything when they become Austria Hungary. But yuguslavia or Romania are just as strong and can core the rest of the region as well with choice events and decisions.

All this being said, Yuguslavia is in a tricky situation if they don't have Germany or the entire Allies behind them. But if Hungary is removed, the Axis and the Allies both have a harder time boxing you in.

With the tangled network of guarantees in the Balkans, any expansion will have to be carefully timed. I am hoping for some excitement before the big war kicks off, but with historical focuses off there's no guarantee on how far off that will be. Hungary certainly seems to be asking to get invaded as will be seen in the update after this one, but I've been neglecting my military thus far to try and build a stronger domestic base. Hopefully new factories and new recruits will make for a quicker mobilization though!

I love the detail you put into this, it's a delightful read. I am very curious to see how Yugoslavia pans out in the looming great conflict ahead, its hard not to imagine a conflict with it and Greece as it swings further into the axis league. Looking forward to your next update!

Thank you for reading! I just now realize that I've rather neglected Greece so far, but you're right that there is definitely some interplay between them and Yugoslavia which might lead to war, if only to prevent Yugoslavia dependent on Italy for access to the Mediterranean.

A great update! What a shame that Yugoslavia's huge push in the Olympic games ended up coming to so little.

Dispersing the industry is a good choice politically, you can't expect non Serbs to stay true to the one nation vision for long without seeing investment at home.

Well, as long as somebody doesn't pull the trigger, hopefully Yugoslavia can make a better showing in the next Olympics. Tokyo 1940, here we come!

The dispersed industry choice, and the decisions to build factories outside of Serbia, are definitely based on political calculations, but it's also important not to take the Serbs of the kingdom for granted either. Their loyalty to the Yugoslavia project is the rock upon which the whole enterprise sits, and if it is lost then Belgrade will be in a lot of trouble.

A delicate balancing act that has a limited expiry date: whether walking a tightrope or sitting on a fence, something will make you fall off eventually.

Indeed, one can attend the ball and play coy for a while but sooner or later you must dance with someone. The key for a weaker country like Yugoslavia is making the choice at the right time, and before someone else makes it for you.

Next update took a while longer since it was originally going to be much longer, but instead will be split into two parts, the first will be uploaded shortly.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
Chapter Six: The Balance of Power, Part One (September 26th, 1936 to July 14th, 1937)
Chapter Six: The Balance of Power, Part One (September 26th, 1936 to July 14th, 1937)

Lessons from the Spanish Civil War

CT7ruca.png

While the war in Spain raged on with no clear end in sight, observers in Yugoslavia and elsewhere took eager note of the weapons and tactics employed by the Nationalists and the Republicans in their fraternal conflict and sought to adapt them to their own ends.

While the public was engrossed with the return of the Olympian Leon Štukelj to Yugoslavia and his subsequent tour of the kingdom, Belgrade was far more engrossed in the news and lessons borne by the returning men of the All-Yugoslav Relief Mission in Spain. The most obvious gains were tactical and technological ones, gleaned from the officers sent to assist the Nationalist cause and their descriptions of the fighting that they had witnessed. Although their time in Spain had been short, the men’s reports had something to offer the military both offensively and defensively, as the upper echelons of the Yugoslav Royal Army were regaled with stories of battles fought in uneven terrain which disadvantaged the attacker and of the devastation wrought on soldiers by the aeroplanes and pilots supplied by Francisco Franco’s supporters in Berlin and Rome which were coordinated over radio waves.

MvZofY2.png

The Spanish Civil War had demonstrated the importance of air power in wartime to the Yugoslav military. In light of these developments, the country’s outdated and undersized air force was to undergo a reevaluation and reequipment. This project, including the accompanying design and production of an indigenous fighter plane, was to be under the supervision of officers who were more skeptical of the direction of Yugoslavia’s foreign and domestic policies. It was hoped that the honor of the mission would placate them, and, if not, the work involved would keep them too busy to create problems.

Even the craft and caliber of the artillery used did not escape the Relief Mission’s notice, and efforts were undertaken to improve the quality and expand the scope of Yugoslavia’s domestic arms production in the face of expanded capabilities and diminishing exports from France and Czechoslovakia. Projects such as the Ikarus IK-2 fighter plane, which had been conceived with assistance and training from France, continued, but increasingly advances in military technology were midwifed with German research and capital. However, by the middle of 1937, the periodic infusions of foreign investment that had been fueling Yugoslavia’s economic growth had slowed to a trickle as trade partners in London, Paris, Rome, and Berlin were focusing on their own rearmament programs and unsure of Yugoslavia’s alignment in any future conflict. The terms of new loans and investment agreements were far more onerous than those that Belgrade had enjoyed in 1936. Stojadinović's foreign policy had ensured that Yugoslavia possessed no outright enemies, but also left her bereft of any friends. Such a deficit would need to be corrected eventually, but the prime minister’s attentions were dominated by developments closer to home.

The Evolution of Yugoslavism

fF74LaL.png

With the kingdom’s borders seemingly secured, Prince Paul and Milan Stojadinović turned their attention to solidifying the Yugoslav state and people. The resulting combination of reorganization, encouragement, and crackdowns was dubbed “Evolution”, although critics of the government were quick to challenge the notion that Belgrade was moving forward and not, in fact, backward.

While the martial and technological information gleaned from the fighting in Spain was certainly valuable, it was greatly overshadowed by the political changes that the Relief Mission’s return to Yugoslavia engendered. The kingdom’s representatives had not only been able to witness the military side of the Nationalist campaign, but also some of its internal dynamics of personalities and politics. The picture that the combined reports painted showed Francisco Franco welding together the disparate groups of the Nationalist coalition into a unified front to fight back the Republic and its Communist supporters. Franco had managed to unite supporters of the deposed king Alfonso, the Carlists who supported a competing candidate for the throne, and the National Syndicalists, the Falange, with their republican leanings under his rule, to say nothing of the peasantry, the Catholic Church, and the often-squabbling military officers who had joined the Nationalist side.

Both Prince Paul and Milan Stojadinović took in this information with a great deal of interest. In some ways, the divisions in Yugoslavia ran much deeper than those in Spain, cutting as they did more frequently across ethnic and religious lines, at the same time the country was not in the midst of a civil war. What Franco had undertaken in his country seemed to provide a way forward for the regent and the prime minister. The former sought to unite the country of which he had been given stewardship. The latter sought to expand his own power and influence.

0BidZ8d.jpg

Despite the rosy predictions of its Great War-era proponents, by 1937 Yugoslavia still remained an idea rather than a real nation, with subjects generally holding allegiance to their own ethnic group in higher regard than loyalty to Yugoslavia, or to Belgrade. For nearly two decades after its creation, politicians had contented themselves with holding together the kingdom rather than try to engender any deep affection for it.

What followed was a radical realignment of Yugoslav politics. Since King Alexander’s assassination, Belgrade’s policy had to attempt to maintain the status quo and balance the interests of the Serb plurality against the other ethnic groups. Shoring up the support of the Slovenes and the Bosnian Muslims, the other “legs” of Stojadinović's “three-legged stool” occupied what little attention was not devoted to stamping out Croat and Macedonian terrorism and separatism. In such an atmosphere, a proactive policy that might actually advance Yugoslavism as an ideology and as a political program seemed unthinkable.

Yet, with Europe on the road to war, such a bold move was exactly what Paul and Stojadinović proposed to undertake. The resulting project contained some areas of mutual agreement between the two men, but it was also something over which they wrestled, each seeking to preserve and expand his own authority over that of his rival. Once the generals had gotten aboard, Stojadinović announced the next step for the kingdom’s political reordering. To a well-screened crowd of supporters who cheered at all of the appropriate parts of his speech, the prime minister announced a merger between his party, the Yugoslav Radical Union, and the United Militant Labour Organization, or ZBOR.

zQGz72p.png

Although both organizations were undoubtedly nationalistic and inspired, and some believed guided, by foreign movements, the Yugoslav Radical Union and ZBOR had fiercely contested ideological disputes over the role of the monarchy and religion in Yugoslavia. Where the Radical Union possessed a reputation of greater pragmatism and corruption, ZBOR’s youthful character struck observers as more revolutionary, and more violent.

The move was a surprising one given ZBOR’s small size and radical politics. Founded in 1935 as a Yugoslav movement inspired by German National Socialism and earning less than one percent of the vote in that year’s parliamentary elections, it was seen by most students of the kingdom’s political scene as a vehicle for Berlin’s interests in the country and for the ego of its leader, Dimitrije Ljotić. ZBOR advocated for Ljotić’s vision of a corporatist nation and a planned economy under an anti-parliamentary constitutional monarchy, but received little opportunity to put this agenda into action while outside of the government. Ljotić’s rash rhetoric was tempered by his strong loyalty to the ruling House of Karađorđević and his powerful connections; he was cousin to Milan and Milutin Nedić. It was through them that Paul and Stojadinović decided to approach the firebrand. These were not the only connections that ZBOR and its leadership had, however. The party had been the recipient of no small amount of support from Berlin, directed by German envoy Viktor von Heeren and funneled through German conglomerates operating in Yugoslavia. This attention earned the party the ire of those in the kingdom who saw the party as a cipher for Berlin’s interests in the country. Further complicating maters had been the section of German leadership, led by Adolf Hitler’s number two man, Hermann Goering himself, which preferred to support Milan Stojadinović and his Radical Union party. While the merger caused confusion and consternation in Yugoslavia it had the additional effect of reconciling hitherto dueling German efforts to influence Belgrade’s politics and policies.

The precise conditions of the merger were complicated and exact, but the broad overview is that the Radical Union, owing to its much greater size and role in the government would retain its name and the vast majority of leadership positions in the new entity. Furthermore, the Radical Union’s concept of Yugoslavism, with its explicit rejection of “narrow ethnic or religious chauvinism”, would remain the party’s guiding philosophy. Stojadinović, who had long harbored ambitions to transform the Radical Union into a mass party, gained a core of devoted young men who would advance the party’s message, and a toehold in the military as well despite the generals’ hostility towards him personally. Stojadinović had spent years working to become the “national” leader of Yugoslavia’s Serbs in the same way that his coalition partners in the Radical Union were widely regarded as the leaders of the kingdom’s Slovenian and Bosnian Muslim populations, and in the same way that Stjepan Radić and now Vladko Maček were seen as the leaders of the country’s Croats through their leadership of the Croatian Peasant Party. The failure of Stojadinović to accomplish this during his stint as prime minister owed much to his reputation for corruption and untrustworthiness, as well as to the size of the kingdom’s Serb population and its relative contentment with the status quo.

lT2hTnn.jpg

Milan Stojadinović, flagged by his chief aide, Ivo Andrić, during a state visit to Italy. In his capacities as Yugoslavia’s prime minister as well as her foreign minister, Stojadinović was well-poised to observe foreign political developments and to try and adapt them to his own country. A hardnosed cynic rather than a fervent ideologue, Stojadinović was willing to push boundaries but not at the cost of his personal power.

Stojadinović was as pragmatic as he was ambitious, however. He was more than willing to advance the cause of a unitary Yugoslav nationalism in contrast to the old Radical Union’s policy of preserving the current level of ethnic autonomy, as long as he was the new party’s leader. The prime minister had long looked to Benito Mussolini as a model, and the merger seemed to advance his goals as well. As Count Ciano observed, “He liked the Mussolini formula: strength and consensus. King Alexander had only strength. Stojadinović wants to popularize his dictatorship.” To this end, shortly after being appointed prime minister, Stojadinović had attempted to create a cult of personality around himself and to form a paramilitary wing of his party, the “Greenshirts”. No one was more skeptical of Stojadinović's intentions than Prince Paul, who was well aware of how Mussolini had sidelined the Italian monarchy when he had come to power.

fJRH5VQ.jpg

Regarded by his opponents as a demagogue who owed his position to family connections and foreign intrigues, Dimitrije Ljotić entered the government under a cloud of suspicion. Owing to Ljotić’s position in the Transportation Ministry, some foreign wits joked that Yugoslavia had brought in a Fascist solely to have the kingdom’s trains run on time.

What did Ljotić and ZBOR receive from joining the Radical Union? In exchange for ceasing his and his follower’s infrequent outbursts regarding the supremacy of Serbs and Orthodoxy within Yugoslavia, Ljotić was able to secure a post in the government as the Minister of Transportation, with an understanding that he may be granted the educational portfolio or even his old title as Minister of Justice should the merger prove successful. In addition, ZBOR’s youth wing, the White Eagles, replaced the abortive Greenshirts and became the undisputed organization of the hitherto rudderless young men within the Radical Union’s orbit. This ensured Ljotić a strong power base, and one that would only grow in influence as more men graduated through the White Eagle’s program and secured jobs and posts through party patronage.

uMzylqy.jpg

Milan Nedić, along with his brother, Milutin, served as the chief umpires for the merger between the Radical Union and ZBOR, tempering the expectations of both Stojadinović and Ljotić and giving the joint project the unofficial approval of the Royal Yugoslav Army, although it was far from unanimous.

The military was happy to see Stojadinović's authority divided, as the prime minister was unable to exercise the same level direct control over the new Radical Union that he could before the merger. The Nedić brothers were confident that they could guide their cousin along the proper path, especially with Milan serving as the Minister of the Army and Navy in the new government. Furthermore, the young recruits funneled to the military through the ranks of the White Eagles proved a helpful salve for the Royal Yugoslav Army’s chronic manpower shortage. A revived sense of Yugoslavism, it was hoped, would reinvigorate the armed forces with a stronger sense of purpose and cohesion, and, eventually bring in men outside of the army’s base of Serb and Montenegrin recruits. Some unease was expressed that a wider pool of recruits and the revamped state ideology would imperil the hold of the predominantly Serb leadership over their army. Furthermore, even with his powerful relations, Ljotić was liked by a minority of the general staff, and trusted by even fewer. The air force in particular was the least enamored with the political shakeup.

And what of Prince Paul? On a basic level, the fact that the impetus for the merger had come from the regency council and not from the prime minister was a powerful rebuke of Stojadinović's republican tendencies. While acknowledging its roles in uniting the Italian people, Paul’s modest personality was opposed to the flamboyant and cultish nature of Mussolini’s Fascist movement and was wary of Stojadinović's ambitions in that direction. More importantly, however, the regent sought stability for Yugoslavia, not in the sense of wanting to appease the radicals for the sake of social peace, but in the sense of wishing to hold together the kingdom in order for it to be passed to King Peter when he came of age. Paul’s initial desire to maintain the status quo he had inherited from Alexander had run into great difficulties. In his diary he agonized frequently over the troubles facing the kingdom and resolved that, in domestic affairs at least, two options were available to him: attempt to reinvigorate Yugoslavism with a new sense of energy and purpose or to begin moving the kingdom away from a unitary system and towards a more federated collection of people. While Alexander had always been more skeptical of the project, Paul was much more of a true believer in the Yugoslav idea. To him, a Yugoslavia which was a federation broken up on ethnic lines seemed to be admitting defeat and giving up on the possibility of uniting the South Slav people into one nation. Furthermore, while the first option was risky, but the second seemed as though only a temporary solution. Going down that route, Paul feared, would spell the end of Yugoslavia, if not before than almost certainly during Peter’s reign. It was not an easy choice to make, especially for a man reluctant by nature to wield power, but in order to secure the legacy for Peter and to save his country, Paul acted how he thought best.

Kjohbeo.jpg

“I call our party the three-legged chair, on which it was possible to sit when necessary, although a chair with four legs is far more stable.” – Milan Stojadinović. The attempt to centralize the Yugoslav Radical Union risked losing the prime minister the support of his Slovenian and Bosnian Muslim coalition partners, Father Anton Korošec and Mehmed Spaho, and leaving him in charge of only a renamed Serb Radical Party.

The immediate reaction to this move was hostile. The Radical Union was not in fact a unified political organization, but rather a coalition of ethnic parties. While Stojadinović had authority to speak for the Serbian Radical Party, his attempts to brow-beat the Slovene People’s Party and the Yugoslav Muslim Organization into endorsing the merger with ZBOR failed miserably, as the leaders of both groups, Father Anton Korošec and Mehmed Spaho, respectively, issued dire statements warning of Serb chauvinism which would tear the country apart. While both resigned their positions in the government in protest, their followers were more conflicted. The Radical Union, the name which Stojadinović kept for his newly reconstituted party, was the key for many to political patronage and secure employment. Self-interest and some curiosity about where this move would lead kept a not insignificant minority of Slovenes and Bosnian Muslims in line.

Abroad, the merger of parties was seen as a confirmation of Yugoslavia’s alignment with the revisionist powers. It was accordingly praised in Berlin and Rome and condemned in London and Moscow, much to Paul’s chagrin, although Paris was studiously neutral on the whole manner. Newspaper men in Britain interpreted the move as an attempt to build a discriminatory regime based on Serb supremacy, ignoring Belgrade’s protestations to the contrary. The chief source of disagreement among the papers of renown was whether Paul or Stojadinović was more to blame for this move. Matters were not helped by Mussolini’s enthusiastic endorsement of the merger of parties, with the Duce proclaiming that Yugoslavia was stepping into the future alongside Italy and Germany.

The worst fears of both domestic and international critics seemed to be confirmed when Belgrade followed this move with a renewed campaign against the Ustaše. “What terrors will these Serbian Nazis visit upon the Croatian people?” one British parliamentarian asked. All concerned held their breath.

zWvzz8n.png
 
  • 6Like
Reactions:
An indigenously made Yugolsavian fighter? Ambitions indeed, probably necessary with the juggling of London, Paris, Berlin and Rome meaning no garenteed supply from abroad. I can't wait to see where this goes!
 
They've identified the main problem with yugoslavia, that it is an artificial nation with many ethnic and cultural groups inside it.

And now they're saying that the best way to keep them all unified is through facism???

Okay...
 
Another erudite and convincingly argued chapter. :)

The Spanish Civil War had demonstrated the importance of air power in wartime to the Yugoslav military. In light of these developments, the country’s outdated and undersized air force was to undergo a reevaluation and reequipment.
Interesting. Of course, any Air Force Yugoslavia can hope to build in the next 2-3 years can never be a match for either Italy or Germany. It would only be competitive against other minor-middle regional equivalents. Given the research effort, industrial investment and time required to do anything meaningful, this - in addition to the political developments that quickly followed - seems to indicate its intended use against neighbours, and then probably as a future Axis member.
Stojadinović's foreign policy had ensured that Yugoslavia possessed no outright enemies, but also left her bereft of any friends. Such a deficit would need to be corrected eventually, but the prime minister’s attentions were dominated by developments closer to home.
It will only be possible to kick this can down the road a little while longer before Yugoslavia itself risks getting kicked. If/when Austria is Anschlussed and Hungary aligns with the Axis (noting historical focuses are off, so I guess these might not happen), Yugoslavia could find itself surrounded by Axis powers without any realistic hope of rescue from the Allies or Soviets, even if they wanted to help.

So it sounds like an alignment towards the Revisionists, some attempted preemptive regional expansion, then a formal Axis alignment is brewing. It’s either that, or neutrality for as long as possible, followed by a gallant defence and government-in-exile!
Abroad, the merger of parties was seen as a confirmation of Yugoslavia’s alignment with the revisionist powers.
As well it should be viewed. Yugoslavia stands at the top of the slippery slope.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
The descent into the Axis is really well justified. I'm glad to see not everyone's on board, but it is clearly getting closer to happening. I do feel a bit of Hitler parallel with the merge with the ZBOR wherein the military is bringing in someone they think they can control but is charismatic.

“What terrors will these Serbian Nazis visit upon the Croatian people?”
I did find this one of those ironies of alt-history considering the brutality of the Ustase in OTL. I suppose the shoe is on the other foot now.
 
  • 1
Reactions:
An indigenously made Yugolsavian fighter? Ambitions indeed, probably necessary with the juggling of London, Paris, Berlin and Rome meaning no garenteed supply from abroad. I can't wait to see where this goes!
Another erudite and convincingly argued chapter. :)


Interesting. Of course, any Air Force Yugoslavia can hope to build in the next 2-3 years can never be a match for either Italy or Germany. It would only be competitive against other minor-middle regional equivalents. Given the research effort, industrial investment and time required to do anything meaningful, this - in addition to the political developments that quickly followed - seems to indicate its intended use against neighbours, and then probably as a future Axis member.

Well, I can't say that the domestic air industry in Yugoslavia is much more than hopes and busywork for some of the more idle generals right now, especially given the current lack of military factories. Hopefully we'll be able to field something that can deter Bulgaria or Hungary, although I think Budapest's air force has gotten a head start. At the very least, we hope to master the skies over Albania, at least until the Italians take over...

They've identified the main problem with yugoslavia, that it is an artificial nation with many ethnic and cultural groups inside it.

And now they're saying that the best way to keep them all unified is through facism???

Okay...

Well, they tried an authoritarian monarchy before, and we know from our history that Communism didn't keep Yugoslavia from tearing itself apart when things went bad. From the perspective of Yugoslav leaders in 1937, the examples of Italy and Germany seem to point to Fascism as being a more unifying force than the fractious democratic debates that have roiled France and have left the western powers impotent when it comes to defending the post-war settlement. I wouldn't say that it is a total panacea, and it will exacerbate things in the short term. Whether Yugoslavia is viable as an entity long-term under Fascism

It will only be possible to kick this can down the road a little while longer before Yugoslavia itself risks getting kicked. If/when Austria is Anschlussed and Hungary aligns with the Axis (noting historical focuses are off, so I guess these might not happen), Yugoslavia could find itself surrounded by Axis powers without any realistic hope of rescue from the Allies or Soviets, even if they wanted to help.

So it sounds like an alignment towards the Revisionists, some attempted preemptive regional expansion, then a formal Axis alignment is brewing. It’s either that, or neutrality for as long as possible, followed by a gallant defence and government-in-exile!

As well it should be viewed. Yugoslavia stands at the top of the slippery slope.

When I started this game, I had a fairly thought-out concept of how things would turn out, but without historical focuses, things are developing in an interesting way that is making me rethink some of my original plans. France's move to the right and the possibility of an Italo-Bulgarian or Italo-Hungarian alliance separate from Germany makes me want to contemplate my options a little more deeply than the title of this AAR suggests. Things may well turn into a war with large factions laying waste to Europe, or there may be four or five competing power blocs that Yugoslavia can try to maneuver through for a little bit longer, although certainly not forever. We will have to see what 1938.

The descent into the Axis is really well justified. I'm glad to see not everyone's on board, but it is clearly getting closer to happening. I do feel a bit of Hitler parallel with the merge with the ZBOR wherein the military is bringing in someone they think they can control but is charismatic.


I did find this one of those ironies of alt-history considering the brutality of the Ustase in OTL. I suppose the shoe is on the other foot now.
The parallels and ironies are not consciously intentional, but I appreciate you noticing them! The Yugoslav situation is similar to Germany, I think, in that the military possesses a great deal of prestige and both official and unofficial political power, and is not entirely subservient to the civilian government. Up to this point, the Prime Minister has been trying to maneuver around the generals and is only offering an olive branch because his position is damaged. Like with Germany, there is very little trust between the different factions, or even within them, while the shared values of anti-Communism and keeping Yugoslavia together may not be enough to hold the coalition together. A chief difference between the two situations is that Yugoslavia does not have the kind of mass politics that Germany had, both on the left and the right. Between the ethnic blocs and the distribution of patronage through political parties, the situation might be more analogous to the machine politics in the cities of the American Gilded era, with the backroom dealing and personal corruption that this comparison entails. If voters are unhappy enough, then the politicians are unhappy, but a lot of the parliamentarians in Belgrade seem more interested in holding onto power than in actually delivering results for their constituents.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
Chapter Seven: The Balance of Power, Part Two (September 26th, 1936 to July 14th, 1937)
Chapter Seven: The Balance of Power, Part Two (September 26th, 1936 to July 14th, 1937)

The Campaign Against the Ustaše

fzq9IMP.jpg

Since the unification of Yugoslavia, life in Croatia had been marked by periodic bouts of violence by Croatian separatists and reprisals by Belgrade. The low-grade war had become an unpleasant but accepted fact of life within the kingdom.

For over a decade, the Ustaše terrorist organization had been committing violence in order to advance its goal of a Croatian state independent of Yugoslavia. The assassinations and bombings had eventually numbed much of the public in Yugoslavia, with only the most egregious cases making the front page of Belgrade newspapers. Periodic patrols and raids in Croatian cities and towns turned up some members of the Ustaše, but it seemed as though there were always more supplies flowing into the troublesome region from Italy and Hungary and an inexhaustible supply of angry young men to recruit to their cause.

After years of maintaining the violent status quo, the Italo-Yugoslav Friendship Treaty of 1936 was the first step towards resolving the Ustaše problem. With Rome turning off the spigot of guns and explosives and handing over high-ranking Ustaše members and the location of safehouses to Belgrade, the terrorists suffered a significant setback and their response was to grow even more violent. Some of Leon Štukelj’s scheduled stops in Croatia had to be canceled for fear of violence against the Olympian or the crowds gathered to see him. Something needed to be done, and, with the reorganization of the Yugoslav Radical Union party, it was felt that there was an opportunity to open a new front against the Ustaše and win a significant victory for the governing coalition.

jOrRuMh.png

The government’s response to the Ustaše threat had long been characterized as meting out terror in answer to terror. The harsh methods of the army’s campaign against the Ustaše may have worked to deter further attacks in the short term, but they did little to endear the population to rule from Belgrade.

Since the Ustaše’s campaign of terror had begun, the government’s response had been strictly military. Officers and soldiers of the Royal Yugoslav Army were in charge of sweeping for terrorist cells and weapon caches. What little thought was given towards winning over the allegiance of the kingdom’s Croat population was often overshadowed by the brutality with which the military carried out its missions. Ordinary civilians could be hauled in for a military-style interrogation, and the many stories of brutality which resulted from these tribunals helped to feed the Ustaše’s ranks and broaden its network of support.

When Stojadinović emerged from the first meeting of the entire royal cabinet since the reformation of his Radical Union party to announce a new campaign against the Ustaše, many assumed that it be another purely military campaign. In the days immediately following the announcement, some in the army speculated that the Nedić brothers and their cousin Ljotić had persuaded the prime minister and Prince Paul to remove some of the restrictions on their operations in Croatia and that a more brutal, and they believed more effective, war against the terrorists could be waged.

6pRiNZS.png

Engendering a loyal Croatian population was something that had long been batted around as an alternative to the military’s pacification strategy, but previous efforts to approach Croatians as fellow Yugoslavs instead of as potential Ustaše members had withered on the vine without the active support of the prime minister or the regent.

Such voices were subsequently confused and chagrined by the details that followed the campaign’s announcement. Instead of remaining solely under the military’s authority, Stojadinović assigned the civilian government a greater role in the army’s activities in Croatia in order to prevent unnecessary abuses of innocent Croats and to associate any successful campaign with his own person. Many of the men chosen to liaison between Belgrade and military were long-time party loyalists hand-picked by Stojadinović, but others were members of the ZBOR. Their actual ability to interfere with day-to-day decisions was greatly overblown by outraged officers, but the appointees’ ability to report wrongdoing back to Belgrade felt like a leash to men who had become accustomed to a great deal of autonomy in their handling of the Ustaše problem.

A part of the Radical Union’s new approach to the issue of Croat separatism was to gather information about conditions and attitudes within the region and to offer targeted economic and social concessions which might win Croat support for the government or, at the least, blunt the appeal of the Ustaše’s message of violence and independence. Projects for internal development and the opening of new state- or foreign-managed factories in predominantly Croat areas allowed for Belgrade to provide employment opportunities to a group among the kingdom’s subjects which had felt most neglected by the government’s recovery programs. Social programs, which were administered as locally as was feasible in the tense atmosphere of the crackdown, allowed further opportunities to put a friendlier face on the Yugoslav government and to hear complaints by Croats without either side of the conversation feeling threatened by gunfire. Zagreb was the test case for these social relief programs and, following successes and modifications, they were gradually expanded out to towns and eventually some of the larger villages. There was some grumbling among the region’s population of Serbs and other non-Croat ethnicities about the positions set-aside for Croatians in these programs while Croat critics believed that the programs did not go far enough, but Stojadinović and his Radical Union deputies assured skeptics in the former camp that this degree of ethnic favoritism would be revisited in three years’ time, when it would likely be ended.

WpS1WGz.png

The pay and benefits of the Royal Yugoslav Army, as well as the social prestige associated with the military in the martially-minded Kingdom of Yugoslavia, helped to supplement the veterans of the All-Yugoslav Relief Mission in Spain with a class of young Croat recruits.

While Stojadinović and Ljotić had never enjoyed much popularity among the kingdom’s armed forces, Milan Nedić was seen as a stalwart military man by his fellow soldiers. His part in crafting this new approach was seen by some members of the general staff as a grave betrayal, especially when he forced through a decree creating several purely Croatian brigades to assist with the policing of the region. Initially, these brigades were formed from Croats already serving in the Royal Yugoslav Army, particularly those who had been to Spain as part of the All-Yugoslav Relief Mission. As the campaign continued, however, recruits began to be accepted from the civilian Croat population and, eventually, even low-ranking Ustaše members who turned themselves in and undergone a period of probation were allowed to join. This raised howls of outrage for bypassing the army’s normal process of recruitment, as well as ignoring the army’s unofficial policy of fiercely dividing soldiers from other ethnic groups between units with a majority of Serbs or Montenegrins. The ghost of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, where Slavic divisions had refused to fight for their German and Magyar masters was wielded like a bludgeon by critics of the Croatian units.

LR0mJPu.png

In response to the ongoing threat of Ustaše assassinations and bombings, the Yugoslav government launched an extensive effort to identify and neutralize the group’s leadership. Intelligence gleaned from Italian and Croat sources was invaluable, but at times it nonetheless felt as though the government was waging war against a hydra.

Most of the initial cadre of leaders of the Ustaše were either caught up by the initial wave of arrests or hiding abroad, but the new leaders quickly rose to take control of the group’s operations. Plans for reprisal were hastily thrown together, and Croatia threatened to become an even deadlier than usual hotbed of assassinations and bombings. The initial attacks were not sustained, however, as the new leadership of the Ustaše suffered from issues of supply, experience, and coordination, all of which were exacerbated by the government’s interference. Belgrade had insisted that this latest campaign against the Ustaše terrorists make clear distinctions between the organization’s leadership and its foot soldiers. As mentioned earlier, the latter, when arrested, were offered chances to turn against their higher-ups and provide information in exchange for reduced, or even abrogated, prison sentences. While some of the true believers proved resistant, others in the Ustaše, the younger men and more recent recruits, were eager for the chance to return to work and support their families. The information they turned over allowed for the government to target the second generation of Ustaše leadership and put the separatists on the defensive. As a condition of their release, the Croatian turncoats not only were required to turn in their weapons and swear an oath of allegiance to Yugoslavia and King Peter, but they were also exposed to Yugoslavist ideas through lectures and conversations, mostly with Croatian members of the military, which led to a number of new recruits for the Royal Yugoslav Army, and its increasingly uneasy generals.

gxgUSBA.png

The influx of men flooding into the Royal Yugoslav Army from ZBOR and Croatia brought with them undeniable enthusiasm and patriotism, but their rougher character and ethnic background caused the military establishment to view them with suspicion even as it begrudgingly outfitted and equipped them.

Ultimately, the Croatian units raised during the Ustaše campaign would be folded into other units of the Royal Yugoslav Army after peace had been restored to Croatia. Along with the recruits brought in by the White Eagles, the influx of manpower helped fill gaps in existing formations, but some officers viewed the new soldiers under their command as a poisoned chalice. Having been exposed to a more robust vision of Yugoslavism because of the efforts of the new Radical Union, these men were less beholden to the traditional military leadership of the kingdom and many of these young men proved eager evangelists for the creation of a new Yugoslavia which would be a unified whole rather than a collection of squabbling ethnic groups.

The Fourth Leg of the Stool

yuVR2Th.png

While support for the new Radical Union may not have run very deep among its new members, the successful campaign and apparent end of the Ustaše threat swelled the party’s ranks, and reinforced Stojadinović’s bruised ego.

Rather than hardening Croatian opposition to Belgrade’s rule, the elimination of the Ustaše as a significant force was met with relief or at least resignation. The combination of tactics employed in the latest crackdown on the terrorist group was far less harsh than what had been anticipated in the dire predictions of Belgrade’s critics, and the olive branches offered to ordinary Croats helped to engender hope that the new Radical Union was something different from its predecessor. While the Croatian Peasant Party continued to maintain high levels of support with its vision of a federalized Yugoslavia, younger and more ambitious Croats, especially those who had ties of friendship or family to those serving in the armed forces, began to join the Radical Union. The tentative growth of Croats within the party seemed to vindicate Prince Paul’s hopes for creating a truly Yugoslav political movement, even if Stojadinović took most of the public credit. The growth of a Croatian wing within the Radical Union as the “fourth leg” of Stojadinović’s stool also had the effect of chastising the Slovenian and Bosnian Muslim politicians who had hitherto been skeptical of the new Radical Union. Fearful of being locked out of power by a Serb-Croat supermajority, Mehmed Spaho grudgingly led his Yugoslav Muslim Organization to rejoin the Radical Union, while Father Korošec held out for a while longer in hopes that the Croatian support for the party would evaporate and leave Slovenes with a stronger bargaining position.

The growing Croat contingent within the Radical Union also alarmed the Serbs who had taken their dominance of the party and the country for granted. Stojadinović was denounced in some circles for selling out Serbdom and moves were made to organize a party solely devoted to Serb interests ahead of the 1938 parliamentary elections. While most of the Serb opposition to the Radical Union was unable to agree upon a common platform and went their separate ways, one group was formed which would have an outsized impact on Yugoslav politics in the coming months: the Serb Cultural Club. The loose organization was not strictly a party organization, but its intellectual membership and its motto, “a strong Serbian identity – a strong Yugoslavia”, held the ring of politics. The group’s goals were to foster a stronger sense of Serb identity within the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, a project in direct opposition to the goal of the new Yugoslav Radical Union, and the two visions would soon clash in a dramatic fashion.

Farewell to Old Friendships and Alliances

h6GT2fr.png

The failure to eradicate or at least to maintain the Republican pocket in the north of the country was a setback for the Nationalist cause in the Spanish Civil War. While the Republicans and their supporters were energized by this development, the failure led to heightened tensions between the different members of the Nationalist coalition.

Ironically, just as Belgrade was implementing changes inspired by the organization of the Nationalist coalition, Francisco Franco’s forces were faced with setbacks on multiple fronts. The internal unity that the generalissimo had forced upon his mutually antagonistic partners was coming undone as more and more battles were lost and blame was thrown about from one group to the next. Meanwhile, the Republicans appeared to be benefitting from the harsh but disciplined methods encouraged by the Communists backed by the Soviet Union. The Republican forces had forced their way through Nationalist lines and reconnected with the loyal territories of the country’s north, giving the Spanish Republicans easier access to the Atlantic Ocean and therefore aid and supplies from abroad. Despite this reversal of fortunes on the battlefield, neither side was prepared to admit defeat and by the summer of 1937 the civil war still appeared set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, whether driven by King Carol’s personal whims or out of a strategy to outpace Yugoslavia’s realignment in that direction, Romania continued its dramatic shift in foreign policy to a closer alignment with the revisionist powers. The previous year’s trade and investment treaty signed with Germany was now supplemented by Romanian feelers towards Hungary. The cover was a meeting was arranged between members of the Little Entente and Budapest at the resort town of Bled in Slovenia. Romania’s allies were fobbed off with assurances that the meeting would be one to discuss the minority rights of Hungarians in the Little Entente member states and to review the enforcement mechanisms of the Treaty of Trianon and that no decisions would be made to loosen restrictions on Hungary’s military without Belgrade and Prague’s assent. Despite his own misgivings and those of Prince Paul, Stojadinović agreed to host the conference on Yugoslav territory. The radical reorganization of the country’s politics and the ongoing campaign against the Ustaše meant that the prime minister was ill-disposed towards alienating the kingdom’s foreign allies, fragile as those bonds may be. The trust that was placed in Bucharest, and in Carol, ultimately proved to be wholly unfounded.

b8yq3i2.png

The unilateral foreign policy of Milan Stojadinović had helped Yugoslavia maneuver between the Great Powers, but the selfish and devious example that he had set for other mid-sized European states ended up burying the Little Entente alliance at Bled.

While the main conference ended in a stalemate, behind the scenes negotiations between the Romanian and the Hungarian envoys had produced a bilateral agreement, humiliatingly named after the Yugoslav town in which it was conceived behind Belgrade’s back. Despite Hungary’s continued desire to recover Transylvania, the two countries had a common, albeit temporary, interest in developing a more congenial bilateral relationship rather than maintain a degree of hostility that could be exploited by a third power such as Germany. Accordingly, the Bled Agreement saw the Romanian government renounce its intent to uphold key provisions of the Treaty of Trianon, opting instead to view measures to curtail the nascent Hungarian air force or restricted armaments as “unnecessary impediments to the maintenance of peace between our two countries”. In return, Bucharest received Hungarian promises to not seek to change the status of Transylvania by force. Much of the Bled Agreement permitted what Budapest had already accomplished, but the skullduggery with which it had been negotiated insulted and alarmed Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. The alliance would continue its existence on paper, but absent a united front against any of its potential foes, the Little Entente of Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia was dead.

Djw4o5H.png

While Prince Paul and others were reshaping Yugoslavia’s government coalition, Pierre Laval and his supporters were hard at work shoring up the National Bloc in France by targeting appeals to different interest groups.

Yugoslavia’s other security partner from the 1920’s also seemed to have lost what little interest it still possessed in the Balkans. The new French government, beset by occasional strikes by the Communists and hardline socialists that it had driven underground, was attempting to shore up the coalition of the right through appeals to the country’s businessmen and farmers. The support of the former was earned through the passing of stronger laws for the protection of private property, with the understanding that the government would not attempt to replicate the German or Italian governments model of “coordinating” private companies and individuals to advance ambitious government projects. Paris claimed that such rights were fundamental to the preservation of other rights, but the opposition in the Chamber of Deputies decried what it saw as an alliance between big business and reactionary nationalism directed against the working class.

The Dictatorship Without a Dictator

P46oHt2.jpg

Despite the wide-ranging powers granted to him by the Alexandrine constitution, Prince Paul’s taciturn rule had allowed other centers of power to develop in Yugoslavia, centers which competed with the regency for power and prestige in the kingdom.

The efforts to build a mass-oriented nationalist political movement in Yugoslavia alarmed those within and without the kingdom, but one factor temporarily calmed all but the most pessimistic of voices. For all of the power which the Yugoslav constitution had centralized and for all of the energy and vigor with which the government had set out to build a durable coalition among the kingdom’s subjects, the fact remained that real power in Yugoslavia was not concentrated in the hands of one man as it was in Germany, Italy, or the Soviet Union.

When Paul had assumed the regency, his cautious temperament and respect for the deceased Alexander and the young King Peter had led him to eschew the powers which he held by virtue of his role as head of state. Some wits had dubbed Yugoslavia “a dictatorship without a dictator” on account of the prince’s reluctance to rule in the authoritarian manner of his cousin. But in the years since the passage of power, the vacuum of power had grown so great as to draw in other aspirants. Prime Minister Stojadinović fancied himself as a Yugoslav Mussolini who would hold real power while sidelining the monarchy, and members of the military high command held similar views about the limited role that the crown should play in the running of the kingdom. In the face of these challenges, Paul faced the unenviable choice of letting one of these other power centers seize control or working to actively contest them by stepping into the arena himself. The success of the campaign against the Ustaše had left the government, and the Yugoslav Radical Union, riding high, but who ruled the country was still an unanswered question, and one that would not be solved easily.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions:
The parallels and ironies are not consciously intentional, but I appreciate you noticing them!
I think that's how you know you're writing a good alt-hist!

The Yugoslav situation is similar to Germany, I think, in that the military possesses a great deal of prestige and both official and unofficial political power, and is not entirely subservient to the civilian government. Up to this point, the Prime Minister has been trying to maneuver around the generals and is only offering an olive branch because his position is damaged. Like with Germany, there is very little trust between the different factions, or even within them, while the shared values of anti-Communism and keeping Yugoslavia together may not be enough to hold the coalition together. A chief difference between the two situations is that Yugoslavia does not have the kind of mass politics that Germany had, both on the left and the right. Between the ethnic blocs and the distribution of patronage through political parties, the situation might be more analogous to the machine politics in the cities of the American Gilded era, with the backroom dealing and personal corruption that this comparison entails. If voters are unhappy enough, then the politicians are unhappy, but a lot of the parliamentarians in Belgrade seem more interested in holding onto power than in actually delivering results for their constituents.
That is a good distinction that there is no Yugoslav identity which makes their politics different from Germany. I think there is a reason fascism seemed so appealing in the 30s across Europe since most of eastern Europe was facing similar problems.

The previous year’s trade and investment treaty signed with Germany was now supplemented by Romanian feelers towards Hungary.
That definitely won't come back to hurt Romania!

The success of the campaign against the Ustaše had left the government, and the Yugoslav Radical Union, riding high, but who ruled the country was still an unanswered question, and one that would not be solved easily.
What did the common people think of Prince Paul's leadership? He does seem like more of a behind-the-scenes kind of guy, so I could see him getting sidelined by the Radical Union.
 
After focusing so much in past months on internal matters with seeming success, Yugoslavia finds itself blindsided by international developments.
the Little Entente of Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia was dead.
A Czech bilateral alliance is not really going to cut it for Yugoslavia’s longer term security.
Some wits had dubbed Yugoslavia “a dictatorship without a dictator” on account of the prince’s reluctance to rule in the authoritarian manner of his cousin.
A good line: a historical observation or an original?
Prime Minister Stojadinović fancied himself as a Yugoslav Mussolini who would hold real power while sidelining the monarchy, and members of the military high command held similar views about the limited role that the crown should play in the running of the kingdom.
Oh dear, this seems to be going in the one direction on two parallel roads. Fascism or a military coup or junta.
who ruled the country was still an unanswered question, and one that would not be solved easily.
Unless Paul can do something clever. Will young King Peter ever get to rule after his regency ends? A moot point for now.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
Yugoslavia is looking somewhat lonely unless it can form an unlikely alliance with the Italians... That seems like it would be difficult with Italy's hunger for Yugolsalvia's coast.
 
Another excellent chapter in the Yugoslavia saga, the growing kinship of Hungary and Romania is worrisome, however, the giant that is the Soviet Union looming over them must make them weary to try anything against the Slavs without leaving their backs open. Interested to see how this plays out!
 
this has been going great!
 
  • 1Like
Reactions:
I missed this the first time round but yes, the Romanian dealings with Hungary are surely not going to end well. Not unless they suck up super hard to Germany and promise them all the oil to get the rest of the balkans to leave them alone.

Which only means they'll end up being partitioned by Yuguslavia and Russia come ww2...
 
  • 1
Reactions:
That is a good distinction that there is no Yugoslav identity which makes their politics different from Germany. I think there is a reason fascism seemed so appealing in the 30s across Europe since most of eastern Europe was facing similar problems.

What did the common people think of Prince Paul's leadership? He does seem like more of a behind-the-scenes kind of guy, so I could see him getting sidelined by the Radical Union.

So many countries possessed large and often hostile minorities in the interwar period, so I agree that the idea of national consolidation is a big part of the appeal of fascism right now. I believe that Czechoslovakia was only 50% Czech, and even in France you have violent political disputes that tore the national body apart. For a newer nation like Yugoslavia, I think that the appeal of fascism could potentially be much stronger because there is less of an eternal sense of nationhood that the French, for example, possess. If Yugoslavia comes apart, the thinking goes, with it goes the last chance for South Slavs to unite as one people and protect themselves from their larger neighbors.

Regarding Prince Paul, what I have found in my research indicates to me that, while the monarchy was fairly popular (moreso with the Serbs than the Croats, obviously, but still fairly well-regarded by the Slovenes, Bosniak Muslims, and Montenegrins), Prince Paul was not seen as the public face of the country in the way that Alexander was, or the generals tried to make Peter after he was elevated to the throne. I think that Paul is much more comfortable with the high-level politics of meeting with foreign dignitaries and hammering out deals with party leaders, to the extent that he has to venture into the public sphere. Historically, Stojadinović was much more of the figure that Yugoslavs focused on, but his overreaching and some of his blunders have forced Paul to take a more active role. I doubt he is very comfortable with this development, though, and he is certainly not the type who would give a rabble-rousing speech to the masses if he could avoid it. If the right person came along to head the Radical Union, Prince Paul could be willing to pass the burden onto them, but who could serve in that role who would unite Yugoslavs?

A Czech bilateral alliance is not really going to cut it for Yugoslavia’s longer term security.

A good line: a historical observation or an original?

Oh dear, this seems to be going in the one direction on two parallel roads. Fascism or a military coup or junta.

Unless Paul can do something clever. Will young King Peter ever get to rule after his regency ends? A moot point for now.

I agree that Czechoslovakia is not going to be of much assistance for Yugoslavia except in the event of a very isolated war with Hungary. And from Prague's perspective, Yugoslavia is going to be about as helpful when the Germans come knocking for the Sudetenland as a towel on the Titanic.

The line is a historical one, used by observers to describe the unwillingness of Paul to use the executive powers vested in the monarchy by the Alexandrine constitution. I thought it was a great one, and was looking forward to working it in as soon as I started working on this project.

There's going to be a lot more political intrigue in store before Peter gets to the throne. At the very least no one is getting his uncle Prince George out of the insane asylum yet.

Yugoslavia is looking somewhat lonely unless it can form an unlikely alliance with the Italians... That seems like it would be difficult with Italy's hunger for Yugolsalvia's coast.

Out of all of the options on the table, the Italian alliance is probably the least appealing due to the Dalmatian and Istrian questions and the small fact that Rome helped to assassinate King Alexander. At the same time, Italy is too close and too dangerous to have as an enemy, at least for the time being.

Another excellent chapter in the Yugoslavia saga, the growing kinship of Hungary and Romania is worrisome, however, the giant that is the Soviet Union looming over them must make them weary to try anything against the Slavs without leaving their backs open. Interested to see how this plays out!

The Soviet Union is still the big unknown for the time being. The Spanish Civil War seems to be giving them an ideological ally in the west, but otherwise Europe as a whole seems to have moved decisively against Communism and alignment with Moscow. Of course if all of the fascists, monarchists, and bourgeois democrats fight each other, then the Soviets may be able to swoop in and clean house.

this has been going great!

Thank you! The updates have been slower these past few weeks, but I am hoping to play some catchup this weekend.

I missed this the first time round but yes, the Romanian dealings with Hungary are surely not going to end well. Not unless they suck up super hard to Germany and promise them all the oil to get the rest of the balkans to leave them alone.

Which only means they'll end up being partitioned by Yuguslavia and Russia come ww2...

As we'll see in this next chapter, the Romanians are attempting to integrate themselves with as many power blocs as possible, but it's very unlikely that they will be able to go at it alone and unless Bucharest leans hard enough towards Berlin, Moscow, or the West, they might end up alone or with nowhere to go but the Polish faction. For the time being, Romania serves an admittedly diminishing role as a mediating factor on Hungarian or Bulgarian aggression against Yugoslavia, but once the big kids show up to the party, the deterrent effect of Romania will be far outshone.
 
  • 2
Reactions:
Chapter Eight: The Concordat (July 14th, 1937 to December 2nd, 1937)
Chapter Eight: The Concordat (July 14th, 1937 to December 2nd, 1937)

Loose Ends: Yugoslavia’s Slovenes and the Macedonians

SGaPSCm.png

The rupture between Father Anton Korošec and Prime Minister Stojadinović inspired some more independently-minded Slovene organizations to split from the hitherto-dominant Slovene People’s Party.

The longer that he kept his followers outside of the Yugoslav Radical Union, the more that Father Anton Korošec worried about the influence of Slovenes in the kingdom, and his own power, eroding. His negotiations with Stojadinović were hindered by the addition of some Croatian support to the government coalition and challenges to Korošec’s party by rival Slovene political movements which agitated for a more aggressive visions for Slovenia which variously included independence, war with Italy over the Istrian peninsula, or both. To rein in these radical nationalists, Stojadinović and Korošec hastily brought the Slovene People’s Party back into the fold with the promises of a ministerial post for the priest and a greater degree of autonomy for the local Slovene government in the cultural and economic spheres. Offers of partnerships with local industrialists to improve local infrastructure and expand their operations into the rest of the country also sweetened the pot. A key point of compromise in the agreement was the stipulation that the degree of self-rule granted the Slovenes was based on the geographical Drava banovina rather than their status as an ethnic group distinct from other Yugoslav subjects.

Avsl4Cn.png

The Macedonian terrorist organization IMRO had long been the second-greatest threat to Yugoslavia’s internal stability. With the crippling of the Ustaše, Belgrade’s attention turned to the Bulgarian-backed separatists.

With the Croatians more or less reconciled to the state and the Slovenes returning to the fold of the Yugoslav Radical Union, Prince Paul and Prime Minister Stojadinović now turned their attentions to the kingdom’s Macedonian population. The region of Macedonia had passed from the rule of the dying Ottoman Empire to the Balkan states of Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece following a number of wars in the years leading up to the Great War. Despite efforts to reconcile the Macedonians to their status within Serbia and later Yugoslavia, a sense of Macedonian identity began to emerge which sought to unite all Macedonian territories and people into one state. The concept was promoted by the Communist International and the Bulgarian government, both of whom were instrumental in supporting the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, or IMRO. While never reaching the level of notoriety that the Ustaše achieved, the IMRO still posed a threat to the unity and territorial integrity of Yugoslavia, especially as Bulgaria, like Hungary, began to cast about for a great power patron to champion Sofia’s territorial claims.

In the years immediately following the failed Zveno coup in 1934 which temporarily brought a pro-Yugoslavia and pro-French government to power in Sofia, Belgrade had practiced a defensive and reactionary posture with regards to agitation among the kingdom’s Macedonian population, leading to the border between Yugoslavia and Bulgaria becoming one of the most fortified in the region. As with the early campaigns against the Ustaše in Croatia, the Royal Yugoslav Army would conduct raids and sweep the countryside for hideouts and caches of weapons following attacks launched by the IMRO, but these moves failed to tear out the terrorist group by the root, and the heavy-handed response alienated a sizable percentage of the local population.

In the light of the success against the Croat terrorists that Belgrade’s new approach had accomplished, many in Macedonia; terrorists, soldiers, and civilians alike; prepared themselves for a similar effort at disrupting the IMRO while appealing to the local citizenry. Macedonia’s more rural character and closer proximity to foreign support made it a more challenging prospect than Croatia, and it was predicted that such a campaign would take much longer, be much more costly in terms of lives and funds, and be less successful at winning the population over to the vision of Yugoslavism promoted by the evolved Radical Union.

fh8SRy7.jpg

After being liberated from the Ottoman Empire, Macedonia was divided between Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia. Macedonian nationalists sought to unify their countrymen in one state, with the IMRO serving as the most prominent and deadly example.

An alternative solution was put forward by Milan Stojadinović at a meeting of ministers and generals. The success of the Ustaše campaign after years of ineffectiveness had chastened the commanders of the Royal Yugoslav Army, but the prime minister’s latest scheme seemed even more radical. In response to a facetious suggestion to hand over Macedonia and its troublesome population to Bulgaria outright, Stojadinović proposed approaching local Macedonian leaders who were known to have ties to the IMRO and arranging a meeting between the government and the separatists. The military was horrified that the prime minister would even consider working with one of the organizations responsible for the brazen assassination of King Alexander, but their anger gave way to something else as Stojadinović elaborated over their loud and repeated objections. The IMRO sought to unify all Macedonians within one state, but why should that be solely to the benefit of Bulgaria? A properly conducted approach, he argued, could harness the IMRO and turn it from a threat into an ally of Yugoslav interests in the Balkans.

Again, the military privately fumed, but ultimately a majority of them went along with the other government ministers and Prince Paul and approved of Stojadinović’s ambitious scheme, although not without deep reservations. To that end, Macedonians were granted a degree of concessions falling somewhere between the outright wooing of the kingdom’s Croat population and the implicit support which her Slovene subjects received. Efforts to turn the Macedonians into Serbs were curtailed, only to be replaced with Yugoslavist indoctrination which, pervasive as it was, did not attempt to strip Macedonians of their self-image but to instead complement it with a greater sense of belonging to the South Slav nation.

Military Developments

TlhPmaN.png

The General Staff appointed former Chief of the General Staff Ljubomir Marić to evaluate the kingdom’s military and to serve as the architect of Yugoslavia’s updated military doctrines on the strength of his 1928 work Fundamentals of Strategy, his Serb ethnicity, and his personal popularity. Part of Marić’s work included the development of hypothetical war plans against the kingdom’s neighbors.

In order to persuade the generals to support more of the Radical Union’s domestic agenda, Yugoslavia’s civilian leaders had to promise the army more support and a chance for it to heighten its already formidable prestige within the kingdom. To that end, Belgrade began planning for war.

It was not enough for the generals to equip their forces with the latest technologies, they also needed to understand how to utilize them. To this end, small-scale maneuvers were conducted using the small Yugoslav air force. The aim of these exercises was to incorporate air power into the offensive and defensive strategies which would be utilized in the event of war. Given the kingdom’s modest industrial base, the general staff decided against developing an air doctrine based on strategic bombing. Yugoslavia was simply not capable of the aircraft production necessary to produce wings of various types of bombers and their escorts. Furthermore, a truly independent air force, as opposed to one subservient to the Royal Yugoslav Army, would be another competitor for prestige and power.

MYPy9sj.png

Supplied generously with resources in order to provide work and secure the loyalty of the military, the air arm of the Yugoslav army, under the leadership of General Dušan Simović, was able to cobble together a rudimentary scheme for operating in wartime. Such tactics could not be fully tested and evaluated, however, before the outbreak of war.

The smaller size of countries in the Balkans, and the uncertainty of public support in the event of hostilities, made the General Staff reject the idea of a long war which would necessitate a bombing campaign to break the enemy willpower. Instead, the generals counted on Yugoslavia’s larger and better-trained army and sizable industry when compared to many of its neighbors to break through enemy lines and rapidly gain enough territory to bring an end to the war. To aid in this plan, planes and pilots were molded to serve in support roles for the army first and foremost, including winning air superiority and softening up entrenched enemy positions.

Such plans were almost entirely developed with an eye towards conflict with one of the other Balkan countries, such as Hungary. In the event of war with a great power, Yugoslavia’s generals were still pessimistic regarding the kingdom’s chances, short of assistance from a larger ally. Such diplomacy was still the provision of Stojadinović, and this dependence was a constant irritant for his opponents in the military.

The Concordat and Its Discontents

lGSpX5h.png

The pacification of Croatia was informally commemorated with the expansion of the already impressive University of Zagreb, one of the three flagship universities of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. Education had long been neglected during the years of turmoil and financial insolvency, but expanding access to schooling, some would say indoctrination, was a key tenant of the new Yugoslav Radical Union’s program.

Following the resignation of the fierce and controversial Serb Bogoljub Kujundžić, the Slovene leader Father Anton Korošec returned to the government to fill the vacated Minister of Education post. In a speech commemorating the expansion of the University of Belgrade, Korošec spoke primarily on the role that education could and should play in uniting the groups of Yugoslavia into a true nation. He lamented the fact that half of the kingdom’s subjects were illiterate, but pointed to the great duty and ability of the three Yugoslav universities of Belgrade, Llubjana, and Zagreb to rectify the lack of education in the country. These parts of the minister’s speech were well-received, as were his other educational proposals, but all were overshadowed by his brief announcement of the resumption of concordat negotiations between the Kingdom of Yugoslavia and the Catholic Church.

Q55cnvM.jpg

His holiness, Pope Pius XII, was present at the negotiation of the 1914 Concordat between the Vatican and Serbia in his role as assistant-secretary of state, and participated in the initial stages of the renegotiation of the concordat with Yugoslavia shortly before his elevation to the papacy.

Relations between the Kingdom of Serbia and the Vatican had been cordial enough before the outbreak of the Great War, with a concordat being signed between the two a mere four days before the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The 1914 Concordat was a fairly innocuous agreement regarding the rights and responsibilities of the Catholic Church and the Serbian government, and it proved entirely workable with the small population of Catholics inside of the kingdom. The war’s conclusion, however, saw Serbia transform into Yugoslavia, with a large population of devout Croat and Slovene Catholics. The tensions between groups frequently blurred matters of ethnicity and religion, and the predominant place given to the Serbian Orthodox Church in Yugoslavia hindered efforts to integrate the kingdom’s Catholic subjects. Some Catholic figures estimated that 200,000 of the kingdom’s Catholic subjects converted to Serbian Orthodoxy since unification for reasons of political and economic advancement. Until the 1930’s efforts to update the concordat to account for the vastly increased number of Catholics floundered against objections by the Orthodox Church and the Serb interests which held most of the kingdom’s political and military power. It was only with the evolution of the Yugoslav Radical Union’s ideology, and the need for greater Croat and Slovene support for the government following the successful neutralization of the Ustaše, which gave Stojadinović the political cover to update the agreement with the Vatican.

ghTPiNB.jpg

The young and passionate Archbishop of Zagreb, Aloysius Stepinac, was an ardent advocate for the Catholics in the kingdom. He reserved his support for Yugoslavia “with the condition that the state acts towards the Catholic Church as it does to all just denominations and that it guarantees them freedom.”

The new agreement expanded the rights and privileges of the Catholic Church in Yugoslavia, granting it equal status with the Serbian Orthodox Church in most matters, although special recognition was afforded Orthodoxy as one of the sources of strength and inspiration which freed Serbia from Ottoman servitude and led to the creation of the unified Yugoslav kingdom. The tax-exempt status of the Catholic Church was reaffirmed, and provisions were set aside for funding churches and religious education in Slovenia and Croatia, although the amount was still less than that set aside in the state budget for similar upkeep and expansion of Orthodox institutions.

Despite its measured character, the concordat signed between Belgrade and the Vatican was met with fury by the country’s devout Orthodox population and by Serb chauvinists. Both groups saw the updated agreement as a threat to the predominant place of Serbs and the Serbian Orthodox Church in Yugoslavia. Despite the concordat stipulating that Archbishops in Yugoslavia must swear loyalty to the crown and not conspire against the state, members of the Serb Cultural Club held that the new concordat threatened the independence of the monarchy, and was the latest in a series of moves where Belgrade was advantaging every other group in the kingdom at the expense of the Serbs. Past support for Croatian groups, including the Ustaše, by some Catholic priests in the country were cited as proof of the concordat’s sinister nature, and rumors spread furiously among discontents about hidden provisions in the renewed concordat, including that Prince Paul had converted to Catholicism in secret as part of a plan to subvert the country and King Peter.

Matters were not improved by the concordat's conclusion coming only a few months after the death of Patriarch Varnava I of the Serbian Orthodox Church. Matters may have been worse if Prime Minister Stojadinović had been attempting to negotiate the concordat or having parliament vote to ratify it when the patriarch died, but as it was minor protests still broke out among Orthodox priests in Belgrade as the Yugoslav parliament ratified the treaty over the fierce objections of the Serbian Orthodox Church. The protests and the resulting arrest of priests gravely alarmed Prince Paul, and to ease tensions, two private conferences were arranged; one between the new Patriarch Gavrilo V, Archbishop Aloysius Stepinac, the president of the Roman Catholic Conference of Bishops of Yugoslavia, and Prince Paul, and the other between the regent, Father Korošec, and Dmitri Ljotić; to discuss the concordat and other issues of church and state.

The leader of the Croatian Peasant Party, Vladko Maček, was noticeably absent from the discussions. His anti-clerical positions, including going as far as to advocate for a Croatian church separate from the Vatican, had left Maček and his party flatfooted by the government’s successful conclusion of the concordat. Milan Stojadinović was also pointedly excluded from these discussions, but it did not stop his opponents in the military from imagining the prime minister’s fingerprints behind these moves and agitating accordingly.

The Tightening Snare

51ilPFK.png

In addition to the underhanded unilateralism of Milan Stojadinović’s policies, the Romanian government also seemed to take inspiration from the Yugoslav prime minister’s ambition of tying Yugoslavia to as many powers as possible in order to preserve the country’s independence.

Riding high from the success of the Bled Agreement, both Hungary and Romania sought to pursue their respective strategies further. With tensions temporarily settled between the two countries, each could look to their relationships with other neighboring countries. For Bucharest, this meant extending feelers in every direction to grant Romania the maximum diplomatic flexibility. To this end, King Carol took the wildly unexpected step of recognizing and establishing diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union. Meetings were tentatively arranged in which to discuss minority rights in Bessarabia, the passage of Soviet forces through the country in the event of war, and the return of the Romanian Treasure which had been sent to Russia for safekeeping during the Great War. Few expected Joseph Stalin or King Carol to come to an agreement on any of these issues, but neither had they anticipated the sudden desire by Romania to placate its larger neighbor. A more natural development was the renewal of the 1921 Romanian-Polish alliance, as the easing of tensions between Romania and Hungary and the corresponding decline in Bucharest’s relationship with Prague eased the way to reinstating many of the military and diplomatic conventions between Romania and Poland which had been allowed to lapse.

W1ckHS1.png

The fracturing of the Little Entente with the Bled Agreement encouraged Budapest to new heights of brinkmanship and saber-rattling against the post-war settlement.

While Romania was mending relationships with other countries, the Hungarians were aggressively posturing against their neighbors. Fences may have been mended with Bucharest, but with the threat of a Polish-Romanian-Hungarian bloc to fall back upon, the Hungarian regent Miklós Horthy went about strengthening ties with Berlin and Rome by adding ministers to his cabinet who were known to be receptive to Fascism and to German and Italian grievances, although he also made sure to emphasize his government’s unique Hungarian character. This move was followed by another set of military exercises. The highlights were the incorporation of the nascent Royal Hungarian Air Force into operations, and demonstrations where the army stormed fortifications and conducted mock encirclements on open plains. The message was clear to Prague and Belgrade that, while the Hungarians may have set aside the issue of Transylvania for the time being, they still had designs on other lost territories in Slovakia and the Banat.

Z9zceEC.png

The war in Spain continued unabated, with the capital of Madrid suffering as it passed from control of the Nationalists to the Republicans and back again. The successive battles for the country’s premiere city were characterized by fierce house-to-house fighting, and even after the battle had ended, the survivors were subjected to conscription and reprisals by the winners.

The Spanish Civil War continued its bloody progress, though towards what conclusion outsiders could only guess. After losing the battle for control of the Atlantic coast of the country, Franco’s Nationalists had managed to surround a small number of Republican divisions in the northwest corner of Spain. It was a welcome prize after weeks of setbacks and recriminations, but still a much poorer one than what had been allowed to slip through the fingers of the Nationalist forces. The initial excitement over the war had worn off, and the once-impressive flood of foreign volunteers and material support into Spain had slowed to a trickle. Franco’s supporters in Germany and Italy were particularly unimpressed with the military failures of the Nationalists, and began tempering expectations that had been fanned by domestic propaganda claiming that Spain was the primary battleground in the war against Bolshevism. Besides, events elsewhere in Europe occupied their attention and promised potential returns richer than those to be found on the Iberian peninsula.

Tension Between the Victors

W6vRX2G.jpg

The dust of the “War to End All Wars” had hardly settled when the victorious Entente powers turned against one another, disagreeing on the division of spoils, the drawing of boundaries, and the maintenance of peace.

Even in the darkest days of the Great War, the Franco-British partnership had endured. But what the war couldn’t accomplish, even with the Kaiser’s armies and propagandists and the withdrawal of Russia from the war into internal revolution and civil war, the outbreak of peace did. The alliance which had triumphed against the Central Powers, may have included Italy, the United States, Japan, and a host of smaller states, but by 1919 its heart was the relationship between France and Great Britain. As soon as peace negotiations had opened, however, it had been clear that London and Paris were drifting further and further apart. While the French had wanted to prevent a resurgence of German power and militarism, British statesmen had been more worried about France’s position as the predominant military power on the European continent. The rivalry between these two great empires may have been set aside in the face of the German threat, but hundreds of years of competition and hostility were not so easily put to rest.

In the 1920’s, France had attempted, on the whole, to pursue a policy wholly out of line with British financial and political interests in Germany’s rehabilitation. To that end, Paris had forged alliances with partners in Eastern and Central Europe: Czechoslovakia, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia. She had even attempted to split off the Rhineland from Germany through a plebiscite and propaganda campaign, and invaded the mineral-rich Ruhr Valley in order to collect Berlin’s delinquent reparation payments. These actions had not prevented Germany from growing more assertive and radical, nor did they preserve French security. Most alarming of all to Paris, such bold moves had tended to elicit sympathy across the English Channel for the defeated Germans. Accordingly, in the 1930’s France had emphasized the other trend in her foreign policy: clinging to London out of the belief that the combination of the two powers would be able to deter German ambitions, including through war if necessary.

This policy was limiting and frustrating for Paris, forced to play the junior partner to a historical rival who was largely ambivalent to French fears. It took a fractious period of debate and Pierre Laval’s cold-eyed assessment of his country’s situation to admit what he and many other Frenchmen had long known was true: Britain would not go to war to save France. Paris needed to take the lead in developing her own security.

r9z6u24.png

After years of France molding her foreign policy to that of Great Britain, Pierre Laval’s government sought to revive French leadership and capabilities in Europe, both diplomatically and militarily.

Such a revelation came too late to preserve the original French military doctrine of using a demilitarized Rhineland as a springboard for an invasion of Germany, but a compromise was sought between the static mentality embodied by the Maginot Line and the offensive spirit that French army had embraced before the slaughter of the trenches. Laval was perfectly taciturn when describing the need for France to develop an army capable of offensive operations and a foreign policy which would defend herself, but careless translations and overeager subordinates lent these two developments the ominous monikers in the English-speaking world of an “army of aggression” and “France first”. While the Anglo-Saxon powers tut-tutted Paris, France’s one-time allies to the east could not help but doubt that this latest change in French policy and doctrine would last long enough to aid them.

TgP8gBz.png

While the sun never set on the British Empire, that meant that London could never sleep. Constant care had to be paid to a myriad of strategic considerations around the world, from the English Channel to the Suez Canal to the Straits of Malacca.

The divide between Britain and France had accelerated over the two countries’ differing views on which countries posed the greatest threat. For France, the German enemy against which she had fought again and again for over a hundred years was the clear and present danger, whereas Britain was more concerned with preserving a globe-spanning colonial empire from the jealous imperialist powers of Italy and Japan. To that end, London announced the government’s decision to reinforce colonial holdings in East Asia, namely Hong Kong and Singapore, by transferring vessels from the Royal Navy’s Home Fleet to an expanded and consolidated Far Eastern command. The announcement, by its very publicity, was intended to chastise both Japan and France, if only temporarily. After all, the Admiralty believed that a potential war between great powers was still a distant enough possibility that there would be plenty of time to reassign ships in light of whatever crises might arise.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions: