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Day 2:
After a long day of deliberation, the group decided late in the day to switch to a quiet hunter who seemed to have shifty eyes. panzercorps, was hung from the neck until dead and removed from the dream. A pity. The hunters could’ve used his extra keen hunting eye.
PanzerCorps the assassin hunter (villager) is lynched
Night 2:
The hunt has come for a promising young apprentice who had joined the church in hoping to ascend to the levels of priest. Aedan777 is removed from the dream by the terrible Darkbeast Paaarl.
Aedan777 the priest's apprentice was hunted
After a long day of deliberation, the group decided late in the day to switch to a quiet hunter who seemed to have shifty eyes. panzercorps, was hung from the neck until dead and removed from the dream. A pity. The hunters could’ve used his extra keen hunting eye.
PanzerCorps the assassin hunter (villager) is lynched
Night 2:
The hunt has come for a promising young apprentice who had joined the church in hoping to ascend to the levels of priest. Aedan777 is removed from the dream by the terrible Darkbeast Paaarl.
Aedan777 the priest's apprentice was hunted
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Argh! And today was the day I should have polenta of timme for the game. I’m so sorry for not votivgåva. But I got hungra, no not that kind of hungra, and went out for a burger and a ber. Or two maybe?
This timme i am not forgetting to put in a placeholder. Didn’t like hos day 1 Tie maning and am geting some baddie vines from him.
vote Wagonlitz.
This timme i am not forgetting to put in a placeholder. Didn’t like hos day 1 Tie maning and am geting some baddie vines from him.
vote Wagonlitz.
Well, THAT was a roller coaster of emotions for me catching up after I went offline for most of the day.
Given that his claim about aedan has been proven true, I feel like I owe Euro an apology.
Front page should be updated with all events. Another reminder in case you missed it that the deadline will be moved up an hour.
Yeah, given that EURO was right about aedan, this turn of events makes him less suspicious.
In fairness to me, I meant to be on more today, which would've made that more of a placeholder vote.
Alright, who started the push on Panzer? It currently looks like Wombat was the first to suspect him. In the absence of further evidence, I'll go ahead and vote Wombat.
In fairness to me, I meant to be on more today, which would've made that more of a placeholder vote.
Alright, who started the push on Panzer? It currently looks like Wombat was the first to suspect him. In the absence of further evidence, I'll go ahead and vote Wombat.
Quick thoughts:
1. Oh no, we lost the priest's apprentice! I feel bad for aedan though, he would have been one of the most active in the game and he'll be a bit pissed I imagine, especially he can't sub in
2. There is a priest in the game. I expect a relatively standard set-up from JM so this implies to me there are scannable baddies, probably at least 2 cultists or 1 sorc and and 1 cultist, or a sorc with an apprentice. This may seem obvious but sometimes I might consider a priest with no sorc or cultists. But I figure there are probably a couple in this game.
3. Corralary to 2) is that I believe we definitely have a scanner still in the game capable of picking off baddies. So again this would favour a slower pace of lynchings rather than trying for ties. This is irrespective of whether or not there is a seer.
4) Perhaps the priest scanned the apprentice night one or night two. However I think it is strongly possible they started off with an apprentice. Even if the a prior assumption is only say 25% chance of this, in retrospect the low chances of an apprentice scan (if maybe 2/3 unclaimed starting apprentices) makes this a bit more likely, although I'm not a stats professional.
5) This means that we have to be prepared for the wolves having quite a lot of firepower and/or the village not having a seer. I lean towards there being a seer and therefore feel more confident the wolves will have a lot. And I think likely a sorcerer perhaps with an apprentice, maybe not connected to a (/the) pack yet.
We are likely looking at 6-9 baddies (1-2 packs) =/- 1 potential cursed.
1 pack: 6-7 (some unattached baddies) vs 14-15 goodies
If cursed turn night 1: 7-8 vs 13-14 baddies
2 packs: 8-9 vs 12-13 goodies
If cursed: 9-10 vs 11-12 goodies
We are slowly running out of time, but even on the worst case scenario we do have some time. I'm more worried about a 1 pack setup than a 2 pack setup. As if there are two packs, they are still at equal numbers and even though we would be out of control of the game, they would be trying to kill each other equally.
I think we have at minimum two more days where we can fully control the lynch. If we lynch a single person today, we will be able to try for a tie or something tomorrow.
6) There are evidently a lot of hunters in the game. I find it unlikely we managed to kill like 5 out of 7 hunters. More likely is that many to most villagers have this power. We need to think about how we can democratically use this power
However if we do tie people, we do gain an extra lynch (guaranteed at least semi-random chance of getting a wolf) over a hunt (guaranteed killing non-wolf (of that pack)). So there is value to it, and I think we should consider it at some point this game. But immediately early on I prefer to avoid accidentally killing the seer or something.
EDIT: Also outside of strategy in terms of pure enjoyment, it depends. In a 40 player game faster pace of deaths is needed and some ties are good. But in a 26 player game, more the opposite. I don't want the game to end too quickly, either way.
1. Oh no, we lost the priest's apprentice! I feel bad for aedan though, he would have been one of the most active in the game and he'll be a bit pissed I imagine, especially he can't sub in
2. There is a priest in the game. I expect a relatively standard set-up from JM so this implies to me there are scannable baddies, probably at least 2 cultists or 1 sorc and and 1 cultist, or a sorc with an apprentice. This may seem obvious but sometimes I might consider a priest with no sorc or cultists. But I figure there are probably a couple in this game.
3. Corralary to 2) is that I believe we definitely have a scanner still in the game capable of picking off baddies. So again this would favour a slower pace of lynchings rather than trying for ties. This is irrespective of whether or not there is a seer.
4) Perhaps the priest scanned the apprentice night one or night two. However I think it is strongly possible they started off with an apprentice. Even if the a prior assumption is only say 25% chance of this, in retrospect the low chances of an apprentice scan (if maybe 2/3 unclaimed starting apprentices) makes this a bit more likely, although I'm not a stats professional.
5) This means that we have to be prepared for the wolves having quite a lot of firepower and/or the village not having a seer. I lean towards there being a seer and therefore feel more confident the wolves will have a lot. And I think likely a sorcerer perhaps with an apprentice, maybe not connected to a (/the) pack yet.
Re-treading some ground here but I think we are largely in agreement.
We are likely looking at 6-9 baddies (1-2 packs) =/- 1 potential cursed.
1 pack: 6-7 (some unattached baddies) vs 14-15 goodies
If cursed turn night 1: 7-8 vs 13-14 baddies
2 packs: 8-9 vs 12-13 goodies
If cursed: 9-10 vs 11-12 goodies
We are slowly running out of time, but even on the worst case scenario we do have some time. I'm more worried about a 1 pack setup than a 2 pack setup. As if there are two packs, they are still at equal numbers and even though we would be out of control of the game, they would be trying to kill each other equally.
I think we have at minimum two more days where we can fully control the lynch. If we lynch a single person today, we will be able to try for a tie or something tomorrow.
6) There are evidently a lot of hunters in the game. I find it unlikely we managed to kill like 5 out of 7 hunters. More likely is that many to most villagers have this power. We need to think about how we can democratically use this power
It's something we've went back and forth on over the years including myself. The trouble with them on day 1 is that you are getting more information than lynching one person, but the marginal yield is less, than say any other day.
However if we do tie people, we do gain an extra lynch (guaranteed at least semi-random chance of getting a wolf) over a hunt (guaranteed killing non-wolf (of that pack)). So there is value to it, and I think we should consider it at some point this game. But immediately early on I prefer to avoid accidentally killing the seer or something.
EDIT: Also outside of strategy in terms of pure enjoyment, it depends. In a 40 player game faster pace of deaths is needed and some ties are good. But in a 26 player game, more the opposite. I don't want the game to end too quickly, either way.
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Small note (I will have a more comprehensive post in the morning):
"Hunter" is the RP name for all villagers. Wherever you see hunter, that's a villager.
"Hunter" is the RP name for all villagers. Wherever you see hunter, that's a villager.
Forgive me. That makes considerably more sense.
We are quite a bit less screwed! Thank you
ANNOUNCEMENT
I have priestly powers. There is one known seerish powers, and EURO has claimed use of a second priestly powers. I suspect we have one more seerish power.
If you have seerish powers or if you have used them already (even better, provided they are still alive), I ask you to get in contact with me and we will see what we can do. Padre on me tonight if coin flips heads.
I will not be too active for the rest of the day but will intermittently be checking and able to respond in for the next 8 hours
(Btw, it was really bad that we had someone tell players that chilldude was absolutely cleared and he still got lynched. With seerish powers too. That is just brutal. And I still keep thinking I have killing abilities with 'hunter' and need to remind myself now I don't have that bullet in the chamber. Brutal.)
I have priestly powers. There is one known seerish powers, and EURO has claimed use of a second priestly powers. I suspect we have one more seerish power.
If you have seerish powers or if you have used them already (even better, provided they are still alive), I ask you to get in contact with me and we will see what we can do. Padre on me tonight if coin flips heads.
I will not be too active for the rest of the day but will intermittently be checking and able to respond in for the next 8 hours
(Btw, it was really bad that we had someone tell players that chilldude was absolutely cleared and he still got lynched. With seerish powers too. That is just brutal. And I still keep thinking I have killing abilities with 'hunter' and need to remind myself now I don't have that bullet in the chamber. Brutal.)
I think the suspicion I had about EURO has been mostly dissipated by the fact that he was right about aedan. Thus, I'm moving on to my second suspect Yakman. Let's take a look at their posts:
vote Yakman
We start off with an attempt to switch onto HistoryDude. No explanation is offered as to why HistoryDude might be a more suitable candidate to be run up.
Then we have two days of tunneling on to Culann. The argument against Culann is not Yakman's own, they have contributed no analysis to it. Although I don't think this is in-of-itself a negative, people can be convinced by what others write, this is an argument without standing. It starts with johho saying the following:
After johho says this is when Yakman makes their vote, not long after it is debunked by Dedonus:
Yakman never switched off Culann, even after Dedonus's debunking. Yakman has only offered the most marginal analysis - noting that chilldude was likely a villager given their inactivity (an easy enough claim to make if you know who the wolves are). Yakman has failed to justify following johho's vote yesterday, Yakman has failed to justify their tunneling today. Hence:
vote Yakman
I’m leaning villager on Yakman, he rarely offers any analysis and despite tunneling on me his analysis on Chilldude was spot on take it for what it’s worth.
For now I’d like to pressure someone who hasn’t been under any pressure and I don’t have a read on.
Vote Randy
For now I’d like to pressure someone who hasn’t been under any pressure and I don’t have a read on.
Vote Randy