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Werewolf CCLXIII: Dungeons and Dragons

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randakar said:
I mean, seriously. First the seer, then a villager spy. How did the wolves know to target alxeu, and not the 'fully cleared' Ike, or Cymsdale, or Wagonlitz, or Aedan even?
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Or the simple answer could be that, because alxeu outed MAW, we can safely assume either Caillean or someone she scanned had contacted alxeu. With Caillean hunted the night before, Alxeu would be a natural next hunt, as she was in contact with Caillean or someone Caillean had scanned. Or because alxeu mentioned she used a scan on Cymsdale, but didn't elaborate it, maybe the baddies thought Alxeu was an important goodie? The only way the unnamed third person in this situation being a "leak" is that Caillean scanned two baddies, but one of them was a cultist.

Looking at the vote counts Flockingbird posted, it looks like Randy broke the MAW/Cymsdale tie by placing a vote on Cymsdale (this happened before Alxeu's outed MAW).

The Day 3 vote counts makes me think that Flockingbird and Randy cannot be packmates because of Flockingbird's 3rd vote on Randy, placing Randy in the lead.

I'll take another look at the thread to see if I missed anything (we still have 45ish minutes left until deadline).
 
No. This simply won’t do. Randy and flock are not the go. We need to lynch someone else. The way everyone has lit onto them for very little reason is at the minimum a small point in their favour.
Either could be a wolf, but there’s a strong possibility both are villagers and with the way everyone is playing, whoever survives today gets lynched tomorrow on autopilot. If we don’t accidentally tie them.
 
Dedonus said:
The only way the unnamed third person in this situation being a "leak" is that Caillean scanned two baddies, but one of them was a cultist.
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I think that the middleman was CYms.
Like, Cyms claimed tha tCaillean had scanned them. And then Alxeu reached out.
That they had considered using somebody else as mouthpiece, forgot who in case it was metnioned, but that once alxeu reached out they decided on them.
So the only way there'd be a leak, would be if Cyms was teh leakj. And I don't see that.
Plus, there's no reason to have cultitst without a sorc, and we know there was 4 baddies at the stat of day 2. So if there was sorc that'd mean only three wolves, whihc is bad. Or the sorc was attached frm teh start, in whihc case you don't really need cultists, and you defintely wouldn't need MAW to have sorcish powers.
Also, having a sorc does kinda require tehre to be a cultists, as otherwise a priest would only have 1 single person to scan for. Meaning that there'd only be 2 wolves. Way way too fragile.

So no, there's no way tehre's a cultist in a game this size, as we know tehre only was 4 baddies at the start of day 2.

Dedonus said:
The Day 3 vote counts makes me think that Flockingbird and Randy cannot be packmates because of Flockingbird's 3rd vote on Randy, placing Randy in the lead.
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That is a very good point. That vote was very dangerous, and she could easily have voted either me or you. For voting me it'd require having missed aedan claiming I was scanned, but msot poeple missed that. Now, I believe it was potiend out when she voted, but could still claim to ahve msised it.
Voting you would have put you two up, which can cause a reaction, but still, I would say that voting randy was a dangerous vote.
Albeit, I wouldn't fully discount them being mates, as it could also be setting up a save. To be able to save someboduy you need to be already voting them, to then be able to move off and start the vote melting.

But defintel,y does make randy the most likely suspect.
 
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marty99 said:
No. This simply won’t do. Randy and flock are not the go. We need to lynch someone else. The way everyone has lit onto them for very little reason is at the minimum a small point in their favour.
Either could be a wolf, but there’s a strong possibility both are villagers and with the way everyone is playing, whoever survives today gets lynched tomorrow on autopilot. If we don’t accidentally tie them.
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Then please make some analysis and show us who else it could be.

Do keep in mind that aedan claimed that he seerish scanned me.
That clears me and almost certianly clears aedan, as 1) he'd not mention that were he a wolf and 2) no way that the pack had both seerish and sorcish ina case with at least three traitless villagers. And lying about having seerish is too risky for how aedan usually plays.
Ike and Cyms both were run up as major candidates against MAW and were in real danger, before the outing, among other things.
Plus, Alxeu really trusted Cyms and the spy report also suggests Cyms is good, etc.
Culann 2.0 made a really dangerous vbote on Maw, and while it's their brother (as in, wombat still played at that point), and it hence could be explained that way, then it'd still be extremely dangerous to do were both wolves.
Cyms shared alxeu's spy report on Yakman, which really really really smells of villager with how it's worded. And Yak in general also has seemed their usual villager self.

Beartjah claimed psychic and gave us the psychic result at the start of day 2. Seems unlikely for a baddie to do. Though, could still be a baddie.


That leaves randy, flock, you, and Deo. Possibly Bear.
Amogn those four, perhaps 5, there are three wolves.

So, please give us some analysis for why it's not Randy, flock, or you. Because by process of elimination there's a very good chance it's exacrtly the three of you.
 
Wait, Wagonlitz and Ike are apparently seer-scanned? Damn. They're the two most wolfish acting people in the game. I don't have time to read the thread for the first time so I will

Wagonlitz said:
Then please make some analysis and show us who else it could be.

Do keep in mind that aedan claimed that he seerish scanned me.
That clears me and almost certianly clears aedan, as 1) he'd not mention that were he a wolf and 2) no way that the pack had both seerish and sorcish ina case with at least three traitless villagers. And lying about having seerish is too risky for how aedan usually plays.
Ike and Cyms both were run up as major candidates against MAW and were in real danger, before the outing, among other things.
Plus, Alxeu really trusted Cyms and the spy report also suggests Cyms is good, etc.
Culann 2.0 made a really dangerous vbote on Maw, and while it's their brother (as in, wombat still played at that point), and it hence could be explained that way, then it'd still be extremely dangerous to do were both wolves.
Cyms shared alxeu's spy report on Yakman, which really really really smells of villager with how it's worded. And Yak in general also has seemed their usual villager self.

Beartjah claimed psychic and gave us the psychic result at the start of day 2. Seems unlikely for a baddie to do. Though, could still be a baddie.


That leaves randy, flock, you, and Deo. Possibly Bear.
Amogn those four, perhaps 5, there are three wolves.

So, please give us some analysis for why it's not Randy, flock, or you. Because by process of elimination there's a very good chance it's exacrtly the three of you.
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I don't agree with much of this...but at the same time it is hard to make a strong argument against.

work call



Vote randakar
 
Btw, if we have a GA or doc, then it'd probably be a good idea to be on me tonight.
 
This is the vote movement I saw from my Index posts.
D1, between 4 and 1.5 hours:
  • IH: wombat & Yak join Alx
  • MAW: Caillean joins Ark
  • Ike: Randy puts him up
1.5-deadline changes:
  • HxD: Wagon, Ded & Ike move to him
  • IH: Yak moves off IH to join Randy on Ike; Cyms moves off Alx to IH
Okay, my concentration is going. Dedonus can confirm from our game together that I have difficulty putting things together and the effort makes my brain foggy. I was going to color code this but I’ve got no time.

D2, from 6.5-3,5 hrs
  • Cyms: Ark joins Marty & MAW
  • No change to rest
1.5 hours:
  • Cyms: Randy joins Marty, MAW & Ark
  • Ike: Caillean joins me & Yak
  • No change to rest
Final:
  • MAW: alx, Cyms, me. Caillean, Randy, Dedo, Ike & Ark join
  • Cyms: Marty & MAW remain
  • Ike: I move off, Yak stays
  • Wagon: still has Aedan
D3, 2 hours:
  • Ded: Randy moves off
  • Randy: I join Wagon & bear
  • Ike: Randy joins Yak
1 hour:
  • Randy: alx joins wagon, bear, & me
  • Ded: Ike moves off without new vote
Final:
  • Ark: Randy, Aedan, Alx & Ike move onto Ark
  • Randy: Alx moves to Ark, Cyms to Randy
  • Ike: I had moved off Randy to Ike while Randy moved off Ike to Ark
And wow if Randy’s a wolf that looks like we’re in cahoots, and we aren’t. I moved off Randy to break the logjam, and Cyms immediately replaced me on Randy. And dear god deadline is up I gotta vote and I believe I am tied with Randy

Self preservation

VOTE RANDAKAR
 
Let's return to Day 2.

Cymsdale: 4
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]
Arkasas [198]
randakar [211]

MAWofdoom: 3
Beartjah [175]
Team Wombat/Culann 2.0 [183]
Wagonlitz [186]

Emperor Ike: 3
Flockingbird [177]
Yakman [178]
Caillean [215]

Yakman: 1
Dedonus [181]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Team Wombat: 1
Cymsdale [190]

This analysis will assume there isn't any alibi voting happening. First, I believe the three players who voted MAWofdoom are likely villagers (Beartjah, Culann 2.0, and Wagonlitz). Beartjah already claimed psychic, which I am inclinded to accept. Aedan says that he seer scanned Wagonlitz.

Cymsdale and Yakman also appear likely villagers. Cymsdale was voted by MAW, claimed to be scanned by Caillean, and the spy report doesn't indicate any sinister intent (unlike MAW's). Yakman's spy report also makes me think he's a vanilla villager.

That's five down. Six more to go.

I think Marty is a likely villager because of Day 1. MAW followed me onto Marty. And because the Marty/Ironhide tie remained until two minutes until deadline, it appears that the wolves were fine with letting Marty die that day.

I'm also a villager. I tried to prevent the tie on Day 1. Plus, how MAW mirrored my vote on Day 1, that would have to be some pretty bad wolf play, if I were to be honest, if I were a baddie (but I'm not).

That leaves four and we need three baddies.

As I mentioned in my last post, it appears that Flockingbird and Randy are mutually exclusive. And looking above, Flockingbird voted Ike, too, so maybe they're unlikely to be baddies.

For Ike, although he was a main candidate on Day 2, with MAW and Cymsdale, it looks like everyone voting for Ike are or are likely goodies. So we cannot rule him out.

Aedan's seerish scan claim could be easily faked by a baddie.

Vote Randy
 
I believe it is 6 randy, 3 flockingbird.
 
I'm not really sold on Randy, but I don't have time for making a better case, either today in general, or before the impending deadline. I do think a tie would be a bad idea for the village though, so-

Vote Randakar
 
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