The spy report on yakman, combined with his hard-tunneling of a wolf, means he is a very likely villager. I'd be shocked if he was baddie at this point.
Wagon has aedan's seer scan on him, but otherwise reads baddie.
Wait, why did we assume that cultist/sorc is impossible?
We could've also had a 3 wolf + cultist pack? Or 3 wolf + sorc?
Though we haven't seen any priest or even priestly-scan throughout the entire game. So then a cultist/sorc would've been completely unscannable. Which would be unusual, but not exactly impossible?
Let's consider some scenarios:
A) Wagon is not a baddie
In this case my assumption of yak not being a baddie leaves me with culan/flock as the last wolves
B) Wagon is a baddie
In this case wagon must be a cultist or a sorc. This leads to a somewhat funny conclusion: A baddie wagon is still a mediocre lynch. This is because a cultist/sorc cannot win the game on their own, they must be attached to a wolf. This means that even if wagon is a baddie, we'd be better off looking for the wolf to finish it today.
Now who would make sense as a packmate for a hypothetical baddie wagon?
- Yesterdays push against flock would make her an incredibly bad fit for wagon's packmate: All that wagon would achieve was killing a potentially hidden packmate to save a blatantly-out-in-the-open packmate. Todays push against flock just doubles down on this: If we have a wagon/flock pack, then wagon would just outright lose the game if flock dies, so trying to lynch her seems rather strange.
- Then the assumption of yak not being wolf lands me on culann.
So then for both scenarios Culann would be a good lynch.
Then if wagon is a baddie, lynching culann would win the game outright
If wagon is not a baddie, then we would get confirmation of this fact by virtue of the game not ending, at which point I think flockingbird would the target for tomorrow.
I only need two assumptions for this logic: Yakman is not a wolf, and flock/wagon do not work as packmates. I suppose yakman and flock/wagon would also need the assumption that I myself am not a wolf for this logic to add up.
But then Culann's day 2 vote throws a spanner in this logic: Looking in more detail, he was voting in a situation where it was ike on 2, and MAW/yak/dedonus on 1. Then pushing MAW up to 2 set up a second wolf as a major candidate. Such an action makes it extremely likely packmate is going to die. With ike being a wolf, this was more dangerous than I gave it credit for earlier. But then I'm stuck with 3 seemingly cleared people + flock, and there's still 2 baddies left, so clearly something in this logic is wrong.
So either:
- I'm misjudging the yakman spy report
- Wagon is a cultist/sorc without any scans that can pick him up.
- culann (or rather: wombat) decided that a dead packmate was an acceptable risk to take on day 2 to get some alibi points.
If I am wrong on wagon, then I'd immediately have a second logic-error as well: Either flock/wagon are packmates after all or I'd have to
also be wrong about yak/culann.
Yakman has been tunneling ike all game long and then jumped to wagon. Could it be? Just going through the entire game only ever voting packmates? Maybe he voted ike day 2 thinking ike was going to be dead, but then got disrupted by an outing which could make him look bad, so he decided to just keep going till ike was dead?
Wait.
Yesterday we had two people breaking away from voting ike-the-self-professed-wolf. Yakman and Wagon. Wolves trying to cast doubt and hoping to get a villager to break ranks? No, yakman was voting for wagon there, so those two
together don't make sense. But maybe one of them?
@Wagonlitz why were you trying a last-minute switch away from ike there?
@Yakman Why did you vote for wagon yesterday when ike was finally getting lynched?
