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Werewolf CCLXIII: Dungeons and Dragons

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Flockingbird said:
You mean Aedan who has one of the worst voting records, right along with Ike?

Who cleared Aedan?

Could he and you be wolves? Looks it.

Edit: and I’m still not sure.
Click to expand...
Why would aedan lie about it, though?
It's both something he'd generlaly not do as a wolf, and secondly then it's also quite risky. There's a limited amount of each trait that's liekly to be in a game. One or two seerish villagers dead and he's toast.
Plus, why would he as a wolf clear me like that? Seems weird. he wasn't under any pressure, and it also was mostly overlooked the way it was written. Not something a wolf wouild do for clout.
 
Wagonlitz said:
Why would aedan lie about it, though?
It's both something he'd generlaly not do as a wolf, and secondly then it's also quite risky. There's a limited amount of each trait that's liekly to be in a game. One or two seerish villagers dead and he's toast.
Plus, why would he as a wolf clear me like that? Seems weird. he wasn't under any pressure, and it also was mostly overlooked the way it was written. Not something a wolf wouild do for clout.
Click to expand...
If you’re both wolves, you could have planned it. Clears you both at once.

I don’t know if you’re wolves. But you could be, and you;ve done a heckuva lot more harm to the village than I have, and that counts more than unverifiable claims, doesn’t it ?
 
Flockingbird said:
If you’re both wolves, you could have planned it. Clears you both at once.
Click to expand...
And kills both if one dies for some reason...
Doing that would be exceptionally stupid.
 
Wagonlitz said:
And kills both if one dies for some reason...
Doing that would be exceptionally stupid.
Click to expand...
You’ve been urging the village to make very risky moves, and they’ve worked well…for the wolves.

Edit: in case I haven’t been clear: you’ve been urging others to take risky moves all game; you could easily have urged Aedan to falsely claim he’d cleared you. Ike has followed your urging twice now. You’ve been more careful not to expose yourself. Puppet-master.

Edit: and I don’t know if this is true. It looks like it. S’why I’m asking for others to see if they think it holds true.
 
Last edited:
Flockingbird said:
You’ve been urging the village to make very risky moves, and they’ve worked well…for the wolves.

Edit: in case I haven’t been clear: you’ve been urging others to take risky moves all game; you could easily have urged Aedan to falsely claim he’d cleared you. Ike has followed your urging twice now. You’ve been more careful not to expose yourself. Puppet-master.

Edit: and I don’t know if this is true. It looks like it. S’why I’m asking for others to see if they think it holds true.
Click to expand...
I fully understand where you're coming from.

Generally you don't make false scan claims unless it's a parity push, thkjgh, I.e. the last day before winning, as otherwise it as a general rule will unravel. And that will kill you. Its an extremely ballsy thing to do, and geenally ends up a loss for your side.
 
I'm not sure who to vote for at the moment, in general I'm against revisiting the same candidate but I don't think that's an option at this point. I do have a question Wagon seemingly cleared Ike but gave no explanation. Despite the fact that I do find Flockingbird an unknown I'm unsure as to why tunneling on her over the other unknowns is preferable as Marty is virtually a blank slate. I'm going to have to read the thread again to see if I can get insight with a more thorough analysis.
 
Fwiw:

Wagon never voted Aedan or Ike
Aedan (alibi-?) voted Wagon on D2 6 1/2 hours before deadline and no one else did; 2nd edit: he never voted Ike
Ike never voted Wagon or aedan

So that part of the vote record does not contradict this case.

3rd edit: MAW never voted these 3, but Wagon voted MAW before alx:
MAWofdoom: 11
Beartjah [175]
Team Wombat [183]
Wagonlitz [186]
alxeu [222 Ike -> 228]
Cymsdale [190 Team Wombat -> 229]
Flockingbird [177 Ike -> 231]
Caillean [215 Ike -> 232]
randakar [211 Cymsdale -> 224 Yak -> 225 Dedonus -> 234]
Dedonus [181 Yak -> 237]
Emperor Ike [239]
Arkasas [198 Cymsdale -> 241]
Click to expand...
Correction: Aedan did not switch to MAW (he stayed on Wagon) but Ike did switch after the outing

In case it isn’t clear, I don’t want to lynch them if they’re not wolves. Do you think any of them are?
 
Last edited:
Here: the colors and strikeovers for unvotes don’t copy over, but I’ve moved those 3 players together. If you have Numbers, I think you can c/p this into the program and then move the columns and rows as you please. I have the wolf and the innocents first; it had been in sign-up order but I moved Ike up to be next to Wagon and aedan.
MAWofdoomIronhideG1HxDudeCailleanalxeuArkasasCymsdaleRandakarFlockingbirdWagonlitzaedan777EmperorIkeTW|Culannbeartjahmarty99DedonusYakman
MAWofdoomX109,83|192|117|
IronhideG1X
HxDudeX
Caillean102|232X215|
alxeu228|82,X314,222|
Arkasas84|241X198|321,
Cymsdale229|104,90|X282, 326|425|295|190|77|
Randakar234|362|211|410X336|302, 328|81|101|302,303|344|225|289,224|
Flockingbird231|85|309|473|X126|177| 325|
Wagonlitz186,132,280|399|486|X75|
aedan77780|368|480,182|X287|
EmperorIke239|140,382461,X119|291,92|
TW/Culann183,97,429,X298|
beartjah175|292|437,86|X
marty99188|469,286|X
Dedonus237|138,79|474,330|111|X181|
Yakman99,130|178|284|398|X
Edit: in Numbers, you can slide the columns so any given one is right next to the L-hand list of names. Makes it easier to read.
 
Arkasas said:
nothing is more wolfish than having a wife, eh fellas?
Click to expand...

It's more about not sitting behind computers a lot because I'm on holiday I suspect. Nothing to do with the marriage.
 
Culann said:
I do have a question Wagon seemingly cleared Ike but gave no explanation.
Click to expand...
Do I not word my posts well, because people keep missing it.
Ike was a major candidate run up against MAW. In fact, before the outing he was in major danger of hanging, and so was Maw. As such it's very unlikely thst Maw and Ike are mates. In fact, Ike was one vote ahead of Cyms and Maw. I just don't see any way the two of them are run up like that as wolves unless the wolves are totally incompetent.
Flockingbird said:
Here: the colors and strikeovers for unvotes don’t copy over, but I’ve moved those 3 players together. If you have Numbers, I think you can c/p this into the program and then move the columns and rows as you please. I have the wolf and the innocents first; it had been in sign-up order but I moved Ike up to be next to Wagon and aedan.
MAWofdoomIronhideG1HxDudeCailleanalxeuArkasasCymsdaleRandakarFlockingbirdWagonlitzaedan777EmperorIkeTW|Culannbeartjahmarty99DedonusYakman
MAWofdoomX109,83|192|117|
IronhideG1X
HxDudeX
Caillean102|232X215|
alxeu228|82,X314,222|
Arkasas84|241X198|321,
Cymsdale229|104,90|X282, 326|425|295|190|77|
Randakar234|362|211|410X336|302, 328|81|101|302,303|344|225|289,224|
Flockingbird231|85|309|473|X126|177| 325|
Wagonlitz186,132,280|399|486|X75|
aedan77780|368|480,182|X287|
EmperorIke239|140,382461,X119|291,92|
TW/Culann183,97,429,X298|
beartjah175|292|437,86|X
marty99188|469,286|X
Dedonus237|138,79|474,330|111|X181|
Yakman99,130|178|284|398|X
Edit: in Numbers, you can slide the columns so any given one is right next to the L-hand list of names. Makes it easier to read.
Click to expand...
If you quote a post with a colour count then you get the code for it. Copy that and colour and strike outs copy too.
 
Honestly if I didn't know 100% for certain that Wagonlitz was not a wolf, I'd probably be voting for him today for trying to go for a tie between Randy and Flockingbird. It runs the risk of moving us a day closer to parity if neither was a wolf, and neither Randy nor Flockingbird were giving me wolf vibes, so I think that's probably what would have happened. If there are any non-wolf baddies in the game, I feel Wagon is one. But there might not be.

I'm going to return to the case I made a few days ago on Dedonus. On post 132, Wagon made the first switch to Historydude, immediately prior to Dedonus expressing concern that Historydude is an easy scapegoat candidate. The following as the count at the time-

Ironhide: 3
alxeu [82]
team wombat [97]
Cymsdale [77 Yak -> alxeu 90 -> 104]

marty99: 3
MAWofdoom [cymsdale 83 -> ironhide 109 -> 117]
Dedonus [cymsdale 79 -> marty 111]
Emperor Ike [yakman 92 -> marty99 119]

MAWofdoom: 2
Arkasas [84]
Caillean [102]

Emperor Ike: 2
randakar [81 aedan -> 101]
yakman [ironhide 99 -> 130]

Historydude: 1
Wagonlitz [yakman 75 -> 132]

Alxeu: 1
aedan [80]

Aedan: 1
beartjah [86]

Wagonlitz: 1
Flockingbird [arkasas 85 -> 127]


As Dedonus has said before, there was a tie at the time. However it was one between Marty and Ironhide. This meant that while Dedonus switching from Marty to Historydude did break the tie, it did so in a very unstable and dangerous way. Ironhide was up by just one vote over four different candidates at 2 votes each. This made it incredible easy for a tie to be made with a single vote switch. We could've even seen a six way tie if someone on Ironhide switched to a one vote candidate. If Dedonus just wanted to break the tie, then the best switch was obviously to Ironhide, put him up by two over anyone else.

Instead Dedonus broke the tie by bring up another candidate into near lead consideration, one that Wagon was actively trying to lynch and Dedonus had expressed skepticism on whether they were a good candidate. It was not the most effective way to prevent a tie, and it also put Historydude under much greater likelihood of being lynched.

I just don't see this as villager behavior, to ineffectually break a tie and drive up someone you just said was probably not a good lynch.

I don't really see any good reason people have given for why Dedonus is a likely goodie, and I don't think him getting overshadowed by candidates like Randy and Arkasas (now known goodies) on day 3 is a point in his favor either.

I think Dedonus is the most likely wolf, and our best lynch for today.

Vote Dedonus
 
aedan777 said:
don't really see any good reason people have given for why Dedonus is a likely goodie,
Click to expand...
Don't think anybody as such has claimed Deo is a likely goodie.
 
Emperor Ike said:
Didn't Randakar claim that? And that was the reason why he was run up as a candidate.
Click to expand...
Mo idea.
And in any case, that wasn't why I voted randy.
 
That tie attempt was just stupid. If both randy and flock were vill, then we would've been at 8 players and 3 baddies: tie-day.
Wagon still has his aedan scan backing him up, but ike does not.

Most of my thoughts from yesterday are mostly unchanged (aside from being wrong on randy):
Wagon/aedan appear unlikely wolves due the scan.
Yakman seems cleared by the spy report

Culann seems unlikely due the MAW vote, though alibi's are a thing.

This then leaves ike/flock/dedonus/marty

Ike's failed snipe attempt yesterday, as well as flock's pushing of ike earlier in the game, leaves me thinking those two are mutually exclusive. That, or we're looking at a masterclass in alibi voting. Not entirely impossible actually: ike looked to be in trouble anyway from fairly early on in the game, and a "failed" snipe to create distance isn't unheard of either. That said, it does seem like a rather less than likely pair.

Between that pair, I'm leaning towards ike: With ike's bloodlust yesterday, and his tie on day 1, I'm starting to feel he's a wolf. Far too eager to jump unto an opportunity to kill more people.

So I think it's one of ike and flock, and then dedonus/marty as the other wolves for my most likely guess.

I still don't think Aedan's case on dedonus makes sense, but the conclusion seems to land in the same place as I do.
VOTE DEDONUS
 
Who is even alive:

Emperor Ike
marty
Flockingbird
Dedonus
aedan
Culann
beartjah
Wagonlitz
Yakman

There are probably no cultists and no priest in this game.
There is likely only one wolfpack
- both are more than likely, but the combined probability is far from certain. I still feel its true tho
This means that if aedan is good then wagonlitz is also. if aedan is a wolf however, wagonlitz could also easily be a villager. we should not lynch wagonlitz if aedan is still alive

beartjah is a villager from my reading of post 175
Maw and Ike both pretty heavily bandwagoned me day 1 huh. In retrospect I was a lot closer to getting lynched than the votecount seemed
- who else was in danger day 1? Ironhide (villager), Maw (wolf), also Yakman and Cymsdale. it may be enough that maw was in the thing, but it would make even more sense if yakman was also a wolf
Wagonlitz questions the hell out of alxeu's outing...but he's already voting Maw
Beartjah another goodie point for his tangible vote
Wait...they hunted Caillean who was the seer? (thought it was alxeu)
- okay that is a nutty hunt
But alxeu does state Cyms is seer-scanned by him

Aedan comes out with clearing Wagon after Alxeu reveals he has seer powers, and that there seer powers in the game, and the seer is dead...okay this could easily be a play. Now it could more easily be a wolf clearing wolf play. With 1 pack, they just have to make sure neither are lynched, and both are considered semi-cleared...
At this point if I'm right the wolves should be going for the win with no more wolf deaths

Alxeu does maintain a consistent case on Dedonus

Yakman and Ike playfighting, but Yakman votes him

EDIT WAIT there are 9 players left. Oh we are screwed
Ike makes a vote on Ike - then instantly unmoves it

Dedonus makes an attempt at voting analysis, and its pretty decent. Does make a vote on flockingbird

Wagon makes a CRAZY LEAP to defend Ike from lynching for a bad argument

Wait Aedan was a SPY??? Oh my god. And we don't even know what she got. So now we are forced to just trust alxeu's reading of a spy report? Why would it be so clear that Cymsdale was good? Otherwise it would just be a super-scan? Oh. my god.
Also if aedan is a wolf, it would make sense to need to hunt aedan as his spy trait might reveal something.

Wait there are 3 baddies left? Per psychic scan?
EDIT: And it was beartjah. Who I do trust. Okay. Have to believe that. So we have a literal chance.

Post 437 Beartjah counts Wagon twice in his list - owned

I forgot flockingbird was alive.
Wagons idea to try a tie is kind of insane. if successful and both villagers, it brings the wolves to 1 day from parity.
- funnily enough the people voting flockingbird are mostly good-coded. Of those voting randy, I feel like 2 are wolves. And I'm one of the 6.
Okay CYmsdale is actually dead. Wait. I knew that
So they tried to hunt randy


Villagers - to be assumed as a given until further notice in all permutations:
Me (you could not put me in your own list, although I do have a strong voting record from maw bandwagoning me)
Beartjah






The suspiciously easy scenario

If Aedan and Wagonlitz are both cleared, then that gives us 3 of 5 as wolves.

Flockingbird is just probably not a wolf.
Leaving:

Emperor Ike
Dedonus
Culann
Yakman

If either of these two don't fit, then its Ike and Yakman
Which means Dedonus and Culann are both 100% wolves. Not really as I'm not sure of the above line, but it would be 75% plus anyway.
The plan would then be: we vote dedonus, then culann, then one of yak and Ike, and the game wins eventually. Okay.
 
Behaviour-wise, Ike is pretty clearly the most wolfish player.
On the contrary I don't have a read on Yakman being a wolf. But I don't have a great rad on him in general. But he's behaving more wolfish than Ike.
Wait, Culann voted for MAw. forgot about the sub. We take Culann off the list of potential lynches


Okay I'm less certain about flock again.

But, again this leaves the nagging possibility we are getting played by aedan.


I think Ike is very very like a wolf, like 90% certain and I'm never certain about anything.
Dedonus probably is a wolf by sheer process of elimination if aedan is good, and he likely is. The thing is I'm just not sure if he feels like a baddie anymore.
If dedonus is lynched and turns out to be a villager, assuming Aedan is still good, the wolves basically have to be Ike the wolf, plus Yakman and Flock. Like very likely. I just don't know if I believe this to be that perfect. Again this reinforces Ike being a better lynch.



So as I see it these are our options:
We fully commit to lynching Dedonus today. If we do that, I think we have to, have to lynch Aedan tomorrow. Like agree in advance. You might not agree that this means aedan is a wolf, I don't think its guaranteed either. But, this leads to option B)

We Vote and kill Ike. A tie would also be good and is virtually guaranteed to get a wolf (if aedan is good) and even if Aedan is a wolf, then strong chances Ike is a wolf. But, if the tie is broken and just Dedonus dies...







Vote Emperor Ike the wolf

I ask you all to switch, or tie. Or, if you commit to Dedonus, state your position on lynching Aedan tomorrow. If you disagree with it, you can lynch me tomorrow (the village would lose)
 
As you can see, I have just now actually read the game. And there are probably still some glaring errors and omissions. But everything so far, in the decision matrix, is flowing towards Ike being the vote here, that it can withstand a lot of arguments. If Aedan is good he's equally likely to be a wolf, in fact more so. If Aedan is a wolf and voting up Dedonus to get within 1 vote of parity, then it would be a very difficult path for any villager to find a way to win the game there.

Can a tie between Dedonus and Ike lose the game? Not unless they are both villagers. Does anyone buy that?
If one of the two is a villager, can the wolves orchestrate a a 3-way tie with the two of them, plus another vill? Yes. But that would lead to a 4 villager 2 wolf game, and they would be outed.

If one of Ike/Ded is a villager, and it is close to a tie between them, can the wolves orchestrate a switch and tie between the villager, and a random other villager? It would lose the game. Is it math possible? yes

Is it feasible to happen? Let's game it out:
Let's assume we do go for a tie or at least some people switch to Ike
Ike and Ded (again, this is assuming one is a villager, which I think to be almost worst-case) will vote each other
Everyone else will vote one or the other.
The wolves would need to at least double snipe to another random vill (say me). Triple snipe if everyone else stays.
- would they do this? I just don't think so. And see below for why*

Ike and Yakman may well, in the end, attempt a vote snipe to confuse things as villagers. They may try voting a random person, or even themselves. These however would be decoys. However, their ultimate vote would need to be back onto the other. If one of them is a wolf (which I believe is at least the case) then 1 can join the sniping party, but

No. They cannot do it with just 2 wolves online committing. Ultimately they wouldn't be able to get a 3-way without villagers not in the running screwing up and biting.
Can they do

Wait, no. No they can't do it. As long as there are 3 votes staying on Ike and Ded, they can't arrange a 2 way victory. As long as we don't screw up royally. All 3 of the wolves would need to be on someone else.


Would the wolves even go for thjis, even if all 3 are online which is porobably unlikely? I very much doubt it. It would be impossible to guarantee success, failure would lose the game on the spot, it is very unliekly to work even if there aren't any village counter-snipers




Thus I think it is safe to have both Ike and Dedonus in the vote, provided:
1) No one acting in good faith votes anyone else
2) We agree one of the two is a villager


I still prefer to vote Ike. I won't be online at deadline.
 
Final Day 1 Votecount
Ironhide: 3
alxeu [82]
CulannV2(wombat) [97]
Cymsdale [77 Yak -> 90 alxeu -> 104 IH]

HistoryDude: 3
Wagonlitz [75 Yak ->132]
Dedonus [79 Cymsdale -> 111 marty ->138]
Emperor Ike [92 Yak -> 119 marty -> 140]

MAWofdoom: 2
Arkasas [84]
Caillean [102]

Emperor Ike: 2
randakar [81 aedan -> 101]
yakman [99 IH -> 130]

Marty: 1
MAWofdoom [83 Cymsdale -> 109 IH -> 117 marty]

Alxeu: 1
aedan [80]

Aedan: 1
beartjah [86]

Wagonlitz: 1
Flockingbird [85 Arky -> 127]

Not Voted: 3
Ironhide G1
HistoryDude
marty99

Day 2 just before outing (last vote at post #225)
Emperor Ike: 4
Flockingbird [177]
Yakman [178]
Caillean [215]
alxeu[222]

Cymsdale: 3
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]
Arkasas [198]

MAWofdoom: 3
Beartjah [175]
CulannV2(wombat) [183]
Wagonlitz [186]

Yakman: 1
Dedonus [181]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Team Wombat: 1
Cymsdale [190]

Dedonus: 1
randakar [cymsdale 211 -> yakman 224 -> 225]

Not Voted: 1
Emperor Ike

Final Day 2 Votecount
MAWofdoom: 11
Beartjah [175]
CulannV2(wombat) [183]
Wagonlitz [186]
alxeu [222 Ike -> 228]
Cymsdale [190 Team Wombat -> 229]
Flockingbird [177 Ike -> 231]
Caillean [215 Ike -> 232]
randakar [211 Cymsdale -> 224 Yak -> 225 Dedonus -> 234]
Dedonus [181 Yak -> 237]
Emperor Ike [239]
Arkasas [198 Cymsdale -> 241]

Cymsdale: 2
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]

Emperor Ike: 1
Yakman [178]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Final Day 3 Votecount
Arkasas: 4
Randakar [289 Dedonus -> 302 Ike -> 302 Wagonlitz -> 303 Ike -> 328 Wagonlitz -> 336 Flockingbird -> 344 beartjah -> 362]
Aedan [287 Dedonus -> 368]
alxeu [314 randy -> 354 Ike -> 371]
Emperor Ike [291 Dedonus -> unvote 318 -> 382]

Randakar: 3
Wagonlitz [280]
beartjah [292]
Cymsdale [282 randy -> 295 Wagon -> 326]

Emperor Ike: 2
Yakman [284]
Flockingbird [309 randy -> 325]

Wagonlitz: 1
Marty [286]

Marty: 1
Culannv2 [298]

beartjah: 1
Arkasas [321]

Flockingbird: 1
Dedonus [330]

Final Day 4 Vote Count
Randakar: 6
Cymsdale [425]
Emperor Ike [461]
marty [469]
Flockingbird [473]
Dedonus [474]
aedan [480]

Flockingbird: 4
Culann [429]
beartjah [437]
Randakar [411 cymsdale -> 454]
Wagonlitz [399 randy -> 486]

Emperor Ike: 1
Yakman [398]
 
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