Alright, let's look at possible packmate combinations.
The two variables that I will be testing are as follows:
-Does MAW's vote on Marty on Day 1 clear him (as Marty was in the tie until 2 minutes were left before the deadline).
-Does Beartjah, Culann 2.0, and Wagonlitz's vote on MAW on Day 2 clear them?
I will also have three constants in this analysis.
-I will be treating Yakman as a villager, because of Alxeu's spy report on Yakman seems to indicate that interpretation.
-I am a villager. Unfortunately you have to take my word for it, but as Arkasas said once, "Killing Dedonus is like killing Dedonus; you think it's a good idea at the time and then it turns out it's not." And if I am lynched today, the villager will find out that it was not a good idea.
-We are looking for three baddies.
So if we were to remove Yakman and me from the player list, we have left:
Emperor Ike
marty
Flockingbird
aedan
Culann
beartjah
Wagonlitz
Scenario 1: both variables are true
In this scenario, MAW's vote clears Marty, while Beartjah, Culann 2.0, and Wagonlitz's vote on MAW on Day 2 clear them. I'm starting with this scenario first because it clears out as many players as possible. When we remove these four players, the list looks like this:
Emperor Ike
Flockingbird
aedan
Looking at the vote counts, there's isn't anything that is ruling out Aedan and Ike from being packmates. However, Flockingbird voted Ike on Day 2 and 3, where Ike was a main candidate at one point on those days. She was the first vote on Ike on Day 2, so that technically could have been an alibi vote, but Day 3's vote looks more convincing, as she moved off of Randy and placed Ike in a tie with Randy and Ike.
So, two conclusions. First, if Ike or Flockingbird were baddies, they are highly unlikely both to be baddies. And second, we must question the two variables in this analysis, as we need three wolves, but because of conclusion 1, we only have 2.
Scenario 2: Marty variable is false, but votes on MAW is true
This scenario essentially only adds Marty to the list. Although I do lean towards having Marty as being a villager, because he was tied with Ironhide until 2 minutes before deadline, we have seen wolf packs sacrifice zombie pack members before (IIRC, that happened in one recently). On Day 4, he was voting with the other three players let on this list.
So in this scenario, the pack would have to be aedan, marty, and either Ike or FLockingbird as the third member.
Scenario 3: Marty variable is true, but votes on MAW is false
This scenario assumes that MAW had scanned Caillean with his sorc scan and the wolves already knew they would be hunting her.
The most extreme conclusion here is that Beartjah, Wagonliz, and Culann are the pack and for whatever reason, they're throwing MAW under the bus so they can look clear later in the game. However, there is one issue here: Aedan claimed to have seer scanned Wagonlitz. If Aedan is telling the true, then Wagon could only be a cultist. But if Aedan is lying, then it wouldn't make sense. Aedan would have to be a baddie to lie about that and that would be more than three baddies.
Day 4 also shows that Beartjah, Wagonlitz, and Culann are probably unlikely packmates of Flockingbird. They were one vote switch away from tying Randy and Flockingbird.
I'm unfortunately running out of time to make any more analysis (especially exploring the fourth scenario, but that would just be saying everyone is possible as baddies, except for the mutual exclusive packmates I have already mentioned.
If I somehow manage to stay alive, I'll try to build off of this tomorrow.
